❌ The XFL On Top Again (Plus Final Four!)

It's a dreary weekend here in the Philadelphia area but a little rain won't stop the world of sports betting! Well...maybe in baseball. But I've got that usual email burst of Probly product updates, probabilities, and I suppose snark? It feels like there's got to be a third thing to hit a traditional written cadence and snark feels about right.No April Fools to be had here, despite said snark. I've got updates on our Probly data, including another core functionality explainer and what's left in our development process as well as a run through the world of probabilities for the Final Four, XFL, NBA, MLB, and whatever else seems interesting. Let's get going with your Probly email for April 1st, 2023! - @ChrisSpags

• 🔓 Probly Beta updates - How to be a Power Users using the product

• 👑 The most probable bets from the Final Four, XFL, NBA, MLB, and whatever else is floating around out there!

Last week, I explained the core functionalities on our Stories page in the first screenshot above and how we aspired to keep everything simple and accessible for people to find their own best bets and the ones we find to be mathematically profitable. That's absolutely meant to work for casual bettors. For the higher volume bettors, you'll want to see the second and third screenshots above.This is our Explore page. The part you should take note of, besides that random arrow dropdown floating in the middle of nowhere that should be revised before release, is the View All Bets tabs. This one is for the power users who are using our platform the way I'd most advocate for (if you have the bankroll): Blasting off on the most profitable bets across every sports and games you have interest in.What that View All Bets tab will provide is ALL of the available bets in a game, league, sport, or across the entire world with all of those options filterable at your fingertips. You can sort them all by most or least probable, you can sort from the most profitable to least profitable events (which uses our Probly Score to determine the expected value of every available bet on a legal US sportsbook), and you can transact on all of them by clicking "Bet For" or "Bet Against". It's a lot of the same ease of use funactionalities on the Stories page but with less bells and whistles and the ability to grab a lot of betting opportunities at once — or just browse through them to see what the markets expect to happen in a game.This is another product built in mind with how I'd want something to use myself. No fluff, just ease of functionality and your best shots at profitability directly in your pocket.It looks like we're still a few weeks out with our tech team connecting the last remaining pieces (data syncing and some lingering UX issues like that damned dropdown arrow mentioned above as well as final QA testing) but I'm feeling good that this will officially be an April release. Getting this out to you guys is only the start of the work obviously but it will be a relief to have people playing with this on day one and giving us the feedback we need to make sure everyone is happy with making it a part of their process.

Once again, the true champion is international with women's Romanian hoops team ACS Sepsi SIC. They have the most probable bet in the world with an ACS Sepsi SIC win over CS Rapid Bucuresti at a 96.7% probability. ACS Sepsi SIC might be the winningest team we've had since starting these emails. I can't do enough due diligence to figure it out but I wonder: Are they a mostly beloved conqueror like the Warriors? Are they just on some unexpected heater like a Rocky movie? It's truly remarkable either way.Despite ACS Sepsi Sic's dominance, you're not likely to get them on your local sportsbook. So once again we go to the XFL for ANOTHER Most Likely award winner. A DC Defenders win has a 78.8% probability. The Guardians are currently the worst team in sports in terms of the win probabilities their opponents get on them each week — Seattle at the tops last week for the same reasons. They were competitive last week so maybe at some point soon there could be an upset that would be more than monumental.🏈 The rest of the XFL's most probable: A Houston Roughnecks win at a much lower 59.9% probability, a Vegas Vipers win at a 56.7% probability, San Antonio Brahmas +3 at a 53% probability, and Roughnecks -3 at a 51.6% probability. At least the Guardians didn't show up a few more times here to get dunked on. They're the worst team around — other than whoever plays ACS Sepsi SIC that week.⛹️‍♂️ It's Final Four time tonight and Miami once again is targeted as a likely loser. It didn't work out for Texas last week but a Connecticut win leads all Final Four probabilities at a 68.2% probability. Then you get the Connecticut moneyline (1st half) at a 62.4% probability. Miami +7.5 is in third place with a 59.5% probability, so it seems like they're expected to trail throughout before a late run ends with them just out of distance. San Diego State +1 comes in at #4 in the Final Four followed by San Diego State +0.5 at a 58.5% probability. Maybe Miami's hot/lucky run continues but it feels like FAU-San Diego State would be the more closely contested game.⛹️‍♀️Since Caitlin Clark captured the sports world's imagination, let's also quickly hit on Sunday's Women's National title game between Iowa and LSU. Iowa +1.5 leads the way with a 59.8% probability followed closely by Iowa +1 at a 58.6% probability. LSU +5 is in third with a 58.1% probability followed by LSU & Iowa u163.5 points at a 57.1% probability and LSU +4.5 at a 56.7% probability. Once again, it seems most likely to be a competitive game with Iowa picking up the win (but a lack of favorite bets, meaning Iowa isn't exactly ACS Sepsi SIC). It all feels like a Caitlin Clark crowning but that's sports betting for you if LSU wins.🏀 The NBA is lacking in heavy favorites today with no moneyline winners and only two games (to avoid Final Four competition). As a result, Heat +2 (1st quarter) is the most probable bet of the day at a 62.7% probability followed by Pelicans +1.5 (1st quarter) at a 62.5% probability, Pelicans +2 (2nd quarter) at a 61.8% probability, Mavericks +2.5 (2nd quarter) at a 61.3% probability, and Clippers +6 at a 60.8% probability. So it seems like two mostly competitive games with literally nothing of interest to discuss beyond that.⚾️ MLB's probabilities are led by Guardians and Mariners over 3.5 runs at an 84% probability, Twins and Royals over 4.5 runs at an 83.7% probability, Mets and Marlins over 4.5 runs at an 82.4% probability, Blue Jays and Cardinals over 4.5 runs at an 82.1% probability, and Rockies and Padres over 4.5 runs at an 82% probability. So...we're going to have to find a more fun way to look at MLB probabilities. I guess it's an important lesson that the expected floor for run scoring in most games is in that 4.5 run range. While a lot of the "over 5.5 runs" bets seem to be just under the 80% range of probabilities. As you guys hopefully saw during NFL season, I'm pretty good at using market data to predict the expected flow of games so I'll try to glean more MLB insights as we go. For now: I would say historically, based on data I've seen and bets I've made, that the -1.5 bets in MLB (and hockey) at plus money tend to be an advantage to take. There's just enough variance from pitching and hitting that you can see those flip frequently, almost independent of circumstance, and have a higher statistical distribution likelihood than the odds represent. But that's more of a Spags take than an official Probly data one.

No WrestleMania odds are culled by our data feeds sadly (though I guess if they somehow grease palms to get it on legal US betting markets, that could change!) but that's another event I'm personally looking forward to this weekend. I had some fun times attending WrestleMania a few years back and I'd vouch for it being a fun time to tune in on Peacock even if you're the most casual of observers. Or just watch the Final Four like a cool person, whatever.That's all for now, hope this email sparked joy for you all somehow. Most importantly — it'll be product release time soon so hang in with us! I think if you've been reading these, you'll get right what you're jumping into. Fingers crossed and I'll catch you guys next week!