❌ A Rare Big Win For The XFL

Saturday morning, you know what that means: Time to wade through the world of probabilities with your favorite weekend morning read (I can only presume we've passed the Sunday New York Times' historical footprint).As we march closer to unveiling our Beta/MVP to you guys, we'll discuss some of the core features that I think make our product unique (and catered to users, as I talked about in last week's email). And then I'll dig through all this weekend's top probabilities across March Madness, the NBA, MLB preseason, XFL, and whatever else stands out. Here's your Probly email for March 25th, 2023! - @ChrisSpags

• 🔓 Probly Beta updates - Understanding our core functionalities

• 👑 The most probable bets from March Madness, the NBA, XFL, MLB preseason, and whatever else is floating around out there!

I'm still awaiting some UX updates and data confirmation from our tech team before I have a read on when in April we'll get this out there. But we're apparently closer to a week or so than months so it feels like this is a good first time, of many to come, where I'll explain the core ways to use Probly and what will be there from day one.I'll try to limit my opining about the industry and why we're different. The key difference I will say is this: Probly is all about helping users understand their choices in betting, providing them the best betting opportunities as simply as possible no matter what side they're on, and — if they're a paying customer — providing our PROBLY Score tool that uses our proprietary true probabilities to determine the best and most mathematically profitable tools.That may sound complicated but the core functionality on our "Data Stories" page, the first product shot above, sums up everything we'll have on day one:1) You can see the true probability for every market we have reliable data for, i.e. a 22% chance the Orlando Guardians win in that first screen above. The goal is to keep this always free for everyone.2) You can vote "Probly No" or "Probly Yes" if you want to show our community how great you are at picking things. We imagine this being something we'll build up in coming months but I want to allow people who enjoy the thrill of betting but perhaps not the financial aspect to be able to participate, compete in leagues against friends, or just flex their skills publicly. For now though, we show you what everyone voting has selected when you make your selection — again, always free for everyone.3) If you are a free user or a paid user, you can then swipe right to take the "Yes" side of the bet for the best available odds on a legal US sportsbook. If you feel like the "No" is the side you want, you would swipe left and get the best available odds for the inverse side of the bet. Again: You can scroll endlessly through bets and make your own choice if you don't want to use our profitability tools and we'll STILL give you the best available odds for free without trying to spin you promo codes or sucker marketing bets.4) If you're paying for our products — which are slated to come in three tiers of one sport for $9.99/month, all sports for $19.99/month, and all sports + live in-game data for $49.99/month — you will be able to see our proprietary PROBLY Score everywhere on the app, which tells you the expected value of each bet (i.e. how much more the bet wins you when it wins versus how much it would lose you if it loses) based on our score compared to the best available legal sportsbook opportunity. This is the concept of mathematical profitability that offers you regular, daily upside regardless of your knowledge of the sports. And, if nothing else, it is an important point of reference to tell you whether you're taking a mathematically sound bet or not.That's, I'm sure, a lot of info for a screenshot that seems relatively idiot proof. But that's where the beauty of our product lies. We are cramming a Lamborghini engine of profitability into a ride as safe as a bumper car. You can never guarantee people win money in betting or fantasy sports. Despite that, we have been hellbent on building one that gives people the best, simplest avenue to come as close as possible to accomplishing that goal.

The true champion lives abroad once more with a women's Romanian hoops team called ACS Sepsi SIC. They have the most probable bet in the world with an ACS Sepsi SIC win over BC Sirius Muresul Targu Mures at a 96.7% probability. What these teams lack in effortless branding they more than make up for in sheer dominance over their weaker prey.Of course, you're not likely to find that one on your local sportsbook. So it is a monumental occasion for the XFL as a result with their FIRST Most Likely award winner. A Seattle Sea Dragons win has a 77.8% probability. These poor Orlando Guardians may not even be able to win with rumors of star Sea Dragons WR Josh Gordon feuding with his QB Ben DiNucci. Sad state of affairs.🏈 The rest of the XFL's most probable: A St. Louis Battlehawks win at a much lower 59.2% probability, an Arlington Renegades win at a 58.7% probability, a DC Defenders win at a 57.8% probability, and Battlehawks -3 at a 50.7% probability. It is genuinely hilarious how much worse the Guardians are than every other team in the league if you compare the Sea Dragons' win probability to everyone else's, both in this league and in previous Spring football leagues.⛹️‍♂️ A Texas win over Miami is the most probable of the weekend at a 61.5% probability. They also are #2 with a Texas moneyline (1st half) at a 59.8% probability. Weirdly, a North Texas +1.5 (1st half) in a Tuesday NIT game also makes the top five. Then you get Connecticut +1 (1st half) at a 59.3% probability and Gonzaga +4.5 at a 59.2% probability. For other games, FAU-Kansas State looks like a tight one with Kansas State +2 leading the way in their game with a 58.3% probability and FAU +3.5 at a 57.9% probability. This should be one that goes down to the wire with the game winner not amongst the top five probabilities.In the Elite 8 matchup everyone is waiting for, Creigton-San Diego State, Creighton +2 leads at a 58.1% probability followed by San Diego State +3.5 at a 57.7% probability. Much like FAU-K State, this looks like a competitive game with neither team likely to pull out meaningfully ahead. It seems like if you were to try to peg one blowout, it would be Miami-Texas. These won't be highly rated games given who's involved but it could be a fun weekend of hoops.🏀 In the NBA, an Atlanta win tops all probabilities with a 77.4% probability. They were the closest one out of the "major" sports to topping the Sea Dragons for this week's Most Likely. A Sacramento win is number two in the NBA at a 73.4% probability, a Hawks moneyline (1st half) at a 70.6% probability, a Kings moneyline (1st half) at a 67.4% probability, and a Heat win at an ominous 66.6% probability. ⚾️ We're on the cusp of MLB Opening Day and, after I somehow completely called the correct line for the US-Venezuela WBC game in last week's email, I've got baseball betting fever. For Spring Training, you have a Dodgers win at a 63.8% probability, a Blue Jays win at a 61.2% probability, a Guardians win at a 60.7% probability, an Astros win at a 60.2% probability, and a Rays win at a 60.2% probability. Spring Training flattens these numbers out with shortened stints for pitchers and hitters sometimes but prepare for a world in baseball with sky high probabilities that sometimes go completely to crap when the pitcher gets blown up.

Another week of the email in the books and, with our open rates seemingly going up with each one, I hope you guys are enjoying this look at the betting markets as well as what we're doing to make a real company. Each week, we get closer and closer to flipping the switch and the grind really starting for my part of this enterprise so I really do appreciate you coming along for the ride.Enjoy your eclectic weekend of sports events and I'll see you guys next weekend with some more updates from the world of Probly. Good luck!