🧀Packers A LOCK Versus New England?

It's Saturday and there's already chaos in the NFL heading into Week 4. Tons of stars out, others injured but expected to play, and this is around the time where the data starts to make sense thanks to decent sample sizes. What that means for you and this email: We can now start to feel even more comfort in the top markets around the world we use to calculate Probly's true probabilities and their ability to predict how a game will go. We nailed the game script for the Bengals on Thursday Night Football and even called out a potential Joe Mixon anytime TD score based on it (less accuracy on calling the Dolphins subjecting Tua to the Kurt Angle broken freakin' neck treatment) so let's see what the sharpest markets in the world think will happen. This is your Probly email for October 1st, 2022. - @ChrisSpags

• Game-by-game preview of the most and least probable bets in all of NFL Week 4's games

I talked in Thursday's email about some of our product developments and how aggressively our team and I check the data to make sure things are working as they should and, in particular, moving in real-time along with the top performing markets we track to determine our true probabilities for all the bets.As we reviewed some of the changes and fixes needed to move things forward, I asked our CTO Edgar if there was something wrong with our list of most probable NFL bets for the week because normally they move around a bit. But this week it remained mostly unchanged with the Packers on top with the probability barely moving.

But it's not a glitch. The Packers winning against a likely Mac Jones-less Patriots squad remains the most probable event of the week, a 78.5% probability. #2 most probable? The Packers' 1st half moneyline, a 72.1% probability. It's shaping up to be a tough year for New England fans and this should be the week you burn your Packers usage in an elimination pool and feel some confidence playing their guys.

Here's what we have for each game:

• Minnesota @ New Orleans - Minnesota +3 in the 1st half and +0.5 in the first quarter are the most likely outcomes in this game with 69.2% and 65.4% probabilities. It's not a high total for this game with a 41.5 over/under so it seems like London will be treated to a competitive, low-scoring game that should come down to the final few possessions and will feel right at home with their preferred brand of football. Blame Andy Dalton preemptively.

• Washington @ Dallas - Commanders/Cowboys under 48.5 pts is the most likely bet in the game with a 69.9% probability. The game going over 35.5 points is another of the most likely outcomes with a 67% probability. It's unlikely the game becomes a track meet along the lines of some of the AFC's most prolific squads but this market data along with the highly probable Cowboys +0.5 (1st quarter) and Cowboys +1.5 (1st half) mean the teams should be hanging around until the Cowboys close it out at the end. It wouldn't be shocking to see an outlier fantasy performance come from this overlooked game.

• Buffalo @ Baltimore - Baltimore +4.5 is the game's most likely outcome, a 62.9% probability. Even if they run into some bad luck, the Bills should be in control throughout despite the road game, evidenced by Bills +0.5 (1st quarter) and Bills +1.5 (1st half) also among the most probable bets, 62.4% and 62% probabilities respectively. It feels like a potential rehash of the Bills' visit to Miami; they should look dominant for parts but their inability to put aggressive offenses away could make Baltimore live to win until deep in the 4th. A really appealing game situation for fantasy with both teams also safely in the green of pass rate over expectation, a 14% boost for Buffalo and a 4.3% one for Baltimore.

• Seattle @ Detroit - Detroit is down two key players in D'Andre Swift and Amon-Ra St. Brown but a Detroit win remains one of the game's most probable bets, a 63.3% probability. The Seahawks should avoid a blowout, at least in the first half, with Seattle +6.5 (1st half) as the game's most probable bet, a 64.1% probability. Chalk fantasy play Jamaal Williams could feast in a game that quickly runs clock as the teams move the ball at will against two defenses that give appreciable boosts according to Football Outsiders' DVOA.

• NY Jets @ Pittsburgh - The return of Zach Wilson does not seem to be hotly anticipated by the top markets. A Steelers win is one of the game's most likely events with a 63.6% probability. The Steelers also seem likely to be in control with Steelers +0.5 (1st quarter) and +0.5 (1st half) as the game's two most probable bets, 68.1% and 64.8% probabilities respectively. The Jets seem likely to hang around with Jets +6 (1st half) among the top probabilities as well at 64.8%. Nothing too exciting.

• Cleveland @ Atlanta - Falcons +7.5 is the game's most likely outcome at 73.2% probability. Both teams love to run the ball with pass rates significantly under expectation but they could run the ball exceedingly well here with the game going under 53.5 points only a 67.1% probability, one of the game's top ones but still a lofty market to note. The situation screams Nick Chubb (or Kareem Hunt) dominance with a chance of Atlanta doing enough to juke fantasy numbers but not really threaten to win.

• Chicago @ NY Giants - The most probable bet of the game is over 32.5 points, a 68% probability. Second most probable is Bears +7.5, a 67.9% probability. All the most probable markets seem to indicate a gross game summed up well by this tweet:

• Jacksonville @ Philadelphia - An Eagles win has a 71.2% probability, one of the more likely outcomes of the week. Jacksonville +14.5 also has a highly ranked 72.1% probability. Expect the Eagles to put some distance between themselves and Jacksonville in a game where the game going under 54.5 is the most likely market, a 73.1% probability.

• LA Chargers @ Houston - Despite the road game, this looks like a get-well spot for the Chargers. A Chargers win is a 69.1% probability and Chargers +3.5 is the game's most likely outcome at a 77.9% chance alongside Houston +14.5 at a 74% probability. This indicates there is a really low chance of a Chargers loss an a solid chance the Chargers win comfortably. Another elimination pool candidate and team to add to parlays.

• Tennessee @ Indianapolis - The Colts look to be in control of this one according to the top markets in the world with Colts +0.5 (1st quarter), Colts +0.5 (1st half) and a Colts win among the most probable markets, all between a 63% and 65% probability. I wouldn't expect an insane amount of scoring with the game under 51.5 points as the top overall probability at 73%. But it doesn't seem like a total slog.

• Arizona @ Carolina - It's not likely to be a fun shootout in this one with the game under 51.5 as the highest probability event at 72.5%. But Cardinals +4 and Panthers +3.5 both have high probabilities at 62.7% and 62.3%. Both teams have been so disappointing this year but this might be an interesting game to target in the hopes of a game where both teams move the ball a lot and break through trading scores towards the end.

• Denver @ Las Vegas - Raiders +3.5 leads the way with a 68.2% probability while Broncos +7.5 isn't far behind with a 68% probability. It's desperate times for the 0-3 Josh McDaniels squad and, even though the Broncos do seem like the better team on paper, we've seen them have some very painful brainfarts to cost near-sure wins so far this year. It's hard to feel confident in a Raiders win but it does seem like people smarter than you and me are treating it as a high likelihood.

• New England @ Green Bay - We covered this one up top but every market out there supports the Packers rolling in this one. The only sliver of hope is the Patriots mucking it up enough to stay close with Patriots +9.5 (1st half) tracking as a 63.8% probability.

• Kansas City @ Tampa Bay - Two teams coming off disappointing efforts last week clash on Sunday Night Football. The game under 53.5 points is the most likely outcome at a 72.1% probability. Under 25.5 (1st half) is also very likely at a 62.9% probability. There will be some scoring to be had but it feels a lot like Bucs-Packers last week where it might not be a shocker if this game isn't the barnburner you'd expect given the national hype that accompanies it. It might be wise to try a defense or kicker in your lineup, but not as captain, in the big Sunday Showdown on DraftKings.

• LA Rams @ San Francisco - Under 49.5 points is one of the most likely outcomes on the table at a 67.7% probability. Otherwise it's a lot of indicators of a close game with Rams +4 (1st half) at 65.7% and Niners +3.5 for the game at 66%. It looks like a potential ugly one once again on Monday Night Football and you could likely get away with favoring defenses and kickers again in the big money fantasy tournaments.

There we go, a run through everything the top performing markets around the world expect to happen on Sunday. Soon I'll have some more insights into props as well as the holy grail of our PROBLY Score, the best expected value sportsbook comparison tool you will ever find, so these will get to look like a lot less reading of spread/over-under tea leaves and more actionable items for us all!

Enjoy the games, tell a friend (seriously means the world to us if you help us get the sports bettor in your life onto our list at ProblyApp.com), and I'll catch up with you guys next week!