🐬Dolphins Coming Back To Reality Tonight?

Our darling 6-month old Luka gave me the gift of my first bout of COVID just in time for #NationalSonsDay so I have been reeling since Saturday. But there are highly probable events to discuss my friends and no amount of brain fog, inconveniently timed coughs, and disgusting tastes in my mouth will prevent me from bringing you guys some info just in time for Thursday Night Football.We've got an interesting (hopefully good!) game tonight between Miami and Cincinnati on Thursday Night Football and some other interesting items around the literal world of ssports so let's get into it. Here's your Probly email for September 29th, 2022. - @ChrisSpags

• Thursday Night Football's most probable bets for Dolphins-Bengals

• Probly product updates

• Some more of the most probable markets AROUND THE WORLD

The Dolphins will play tonight in a deeply catastrophic time for their home region of Miami (and I hope anyone affected by this Hurricane is safe and sound, especially if it's any of you guys or someone in your lives). Despite their 3-0 start, they are a 3.5 point underdog at Cincinnati on most primary markets. The market data from top performing international books tells a similar tale with their most probable bets.The top 5 markets are below. Based on this data, along with a lot of success for the Bengals defense in passing situations where they're not generating pressure (a 63% completion rate allowed but only 5.4 intended air yards per attempt, according to Sports Info Solutions), it seems like the Bengals are likely to win and get in control early. But the Dolphins should hang around, as they have each week so far with their willingness to sling the rock.

Most probable outcomes:

• #5 - Bengals -1 (game) - 62% probability

• #4 - Bengals +0.5 (1st half) - 63.5% probability

• #3 - Bengals moneyline - 63.8% probability

• #2 - Dolphins +6 (game) - 64.1% probability

• #1 - Bengals +0.5 (1st quarter) - 65.3% probability

With the high likelihood of a Bengals win and Joe Mixon getting a ton of red zone work with little success so far (3.3 intended touches per game and no touchdowns), he could also be an interesting anytime TD scorer tonight.

At some point, your willingness to join our Probly wait list will result in you getting to be one of the first people in the public to play with our new product. It will give you live data from top international sportsbooks to help you identify the most and least probable outcomes, player props, and whatever else there is a credible market for in a game as well as the most mathematically profitable bets you can find knowing that information. But that takes a lot of steps for us to build it out as a pre-investment, pre-revenue company.

Each week, we add more and more cool wrinkles (that inevitably lead to having to figure out something else) and this week that includes the addition of the Live markets you see above. There's something comforting to know that at almost any time of day, there's a game you could theoretically bet on and profit off of or just see what's most likely to happen. Sure, you and I may not be the biggest U-Banca Transilvania fans or have any idea how you could watch that game. But the money on that game is just as green (well, I have no clue what color money they have in Transilvania...I assume blood red).There's something reassuring to know that no matter where I am, no matter if it's night or day, there's action going on. And that's the excitement we hope to bring when we get to roll this out to you guys. Our team will keep plugging but, for now, know that we are moving mountains to get you guys something cool that will have real utility to appreciate and understand sports — as well as hopefully make some money — as soon as we posssibly can. In the mean time, I'll be Googling to find out what FC Inter 2 is. Finnish soccer could stand to have more animal mascots tbh.

Last week's most probable bets in here all hit, which isn't a shocker given the long odds many of the games come with. However there is some value in trying to pair some of these most probable events together. A parlay is in play if you want to be prepared to get sunk by one outlier event (me last week with the Chiefs blowing a 5-teamer any way they could) but you can also try round robins or add these highly probable outcomes to a bet you feel good about with a lower likelihood. Or just use them to churn sportsbook bonuses with (hopefully) eas7 wins.So here are the current most probable events across a variety of sports coming up in the next few days

• Georgia at Missouri - 95.2% probabilityGeorgia is currently the #1 ranked team in college football and a loss at Missouri would be a shocker of all shockers for both Dawg fans and bettors.

• Koping Stars moneyline vs KFUM Fryshuset Basket - 94.7% probability Swedish basketball fans are in for a treat with the Koping Stars likely to stick it to KFUM, a team that sounds more like a college radio station.

• Sodiq Yusuff vs Don Shainis - 86.6% probability Yusuff is the most probable winner from the UFC card this weekend and there's also a decent chance he finishe early based on a 43.7% probability the fight goes under 1.5 rounds

• Over 3.5 run bets in MLB - Rockies/Giants has an 84.1% probability of scoring over 3.5 runs, Rangers/Mariners has an 82.7% probability, and A's/Angels is also highly ranked with an 82.4% probability. These bets likely have too much juice on them to be worthwhile but pairing them together could be an interesting parlay. These O3.5 runs bets litter our most probable events frequently for MLB.

Our least probable bets are filled with soccer teams with no perceived chance to win like FK Metta and Viktoria Plzen, whom we mentioned last week, and their 2.1% probability and 2.4% probabilities respectively. In college football, you've got Missouri with only a 4.7% chance to win, Northwestern with a paltry but nice 6.9% probability, and THE EVIL ARIZONA STATE with a 7.3% probability to win versus my beloved future National Champion USC Trojans.

Bet responsibly, watch what should be a Thursday Night Football game that could make up for the other dumpster fires we've had in primetime lately, and stay safe all of our friends affected by Hurricane Ian.I'll check back in this weekend with a look at NFL Week 4 (and don't forget to come hang out during Splash Play tomorrow, the first show I'll be able to muster up the ability to do after a long week of coughing in batches). See you guys again soon!