🏀 Are March Madness Bets Inherently -EV?

It’s been an interesting week here at Probly, some of which I’ll talk about below in our Probly Updates. But I did want to talk about one thing up top here after digging through our data: March Madness bets seem really -EV.

Now you might say — I love March Madness! I love getting drunk and watching the NCAA tournament and sweating it out! Underdogs! Buzzer beaters! One Shining Moment! It’s great.

Both things can be true. As I reviewed our data this week for the Men’s NCAA Tournament, I was shocked to see how few bets we had above a 2+ PROBLY Score, let alone a 3 or 4. We actually reviewed our feeds to make sure we were pulling everything in — which we were.

What are the reasons why we’d have less +EV bets heading into the Thursday and Friday then?

#1 — There is a week for bettors, both sharp and public, to help sportsbooks set these markets. Time is not your friend for betting markets. It’s part of why the NFL is so efficient. In an NBA or MLB, there may be more predictability in terms of performance relative to averages. But the quick turnaround of games makes a constant barrage of lines to account for, update, and price accordingly. The more time books have to set these lines, get data around them, and see where money — as well as competitive sportsbooks — moves markets, the worse it is for you.

#2 — Despite a ton of games, there are less markets. Many states have laws against prop betting for college sports (a vestigial thing related to amateurism that probably isn’t as relevant in an NIL world). And, because they’re somewhat less projectable in college and less expected by users, many sportsbooks don’t provide them. As a result, there is a limited amount of markets focused on totals, 1st half splits, and derivatives of the above.

#3 — The variance of March Madness leads to conservatism in pricing. Because we know things like “Every year, a 12-seed upsets a 5-seed” have a big enough sample size to be relevant — and we’ve seen even bigger upsets in recent years as a feature of March Madness, not a bug — you see pricing more towards the middle of the pack than you may normally see. Particularly in early rounds, many fringe cases where you can exploit advantages in mathematical profitability get closed quickly.

#4 — A LOT of people bet on March Madness. You now have a bunch of factors that create a perfect storm to give sportsbooks an even marked advantage than they normally have. Add in this: There is a TON of action on March Madness because of the social reasons. Some of it’s dumb money supporting an alum school, a lot more of it is sharp bettors or conglomerates with models beating early mispricings down. Either way — It’s almost a Super Bowl level of action that gives them every chance to find out where the pricing is right and wrong.

Now that doesn’t mean it’s like this all tournament. In fact, we’ve already seen more +EV bets pop up for Saturday and Sunday’s games because these games have only been solidified within the last 24 hours. As a result of not knowing matchups, books lack the weeklong data that they had heading into this Thursday and Friday (that they’ll also have next Thursday and Friday).

So if you bet the tournament, doing it on the weekends is the better way to do it. If you use live in-game data — like our Probly+ Live data — hit it fast, check the Last Updated time, leap on it. That’s the way you win in March Madness beyond your typical bracket pool.

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Today, we’ll hit on the NBA Top 10 bets (along with our Most Profitable challenge once again, which is in the NCAA Tournament) plus our usual run through products and business. Here’s your Probly Email for March 22nd, 2024! - @ChrisSpags

• 🏀 The NBA’s Top 10 bets (with new details on this week’s Most Probable challenge)

• 🔓 Probly Updates: Going to Miami

We’re 2-0 in the Most Profitable challenge. Do you want to take us on this week in NCAA Men’s hoops? Let’s find out!

If you tail this bet I’m about to show you, send me a screenshot at Probly.com before the game starts [email protected]. If the bet loses, I will comp you a free month of Probly+. If the bet wins, I expect you to pay for a month of Probly+ at whichever tier you deem appropriate. That’s the bet between gentlemen (or gentleman and lady).

The current best bet in this week’s Most Profitable challenge is:

Indiana State under 83.5 points — 50% probability and 5.5 PROBLY Score — +110 odds

Send your screenshots to me if you tail it BEFORE THE GAME [email protected]. It tips off on Sunday so you have time. If you send it in, then a bet is a bet 🤝.

Otherwise, here’s the rest of the Top 10 bets for today, from a video done this morning:

And here they are in text from our bet tracking sheet:

Of course our best bets, probabilities, and PROBLY Scores are always updated all night and day so get more for yourself at Probly.com or on the App Store (leave five stars and a review with your Probly username and get a free month of Probly+)!

^Here’s our video tutorial on optimal settings, which we’re hoping will be live as an interstitial for new users on Probly soon. Read our previous post on optimal settings before you dive in to betting with Probly’s data (I email these things to new signups we get on the web site but I can’t do the same with our Apple users due to them keeping emails private so I’ll likely include this in every email moving forward).

Besides that on the product front:

-We made a change to how user accounts are handled to fix some issues we had with people who sign up through Apple and then Stripe. It should be good to go now (and thanks for your help/patience to the few of you who got affected by that this week).

-We made a change to the Most Profitable/Probable/etc filtering area to include icons so you know what you’re filtering by to see items in the Markets area:

You’ll see a Dollar Sign if filtering by Profitability, a Dice if filtering by Probability, a Calendar if filtering by Last Updated, and a Play Button if filtering by live (on our Probly+ Live tier).

-We plan to also have that video tutorial (and our “sign up” interstitial) live hopefully over the weekend, displaying once for non-subscribers as part of their login flow.

-Lastly, we’ve encountered an issue with our probability data that has us not displaying NCAA Women’s tourney markets right now. We’re trying to find a way to get them back on but we’re keeping them pulled until we have full confidence the experience is as expected.

Besides that, both my CTO Edgar and I are going to Miami for a day next week for a Demo Day for an awesome angel investor group based down there. We’re really excited about the opportunity and, based on feedback we’ve received in pre-conversations, are cautiously optimistic this can be the majority, if not all, of the funding round we’ve wanted to lock down.

We feel good about where we are — and, honestly, where’d we be by end of year even if we kept up on this current trajectory without funding — but having a little bit of breathing room for bills and ability to build faster would be huge for us. We’re stoked for the opportunity but even more so for what it can mean for continuing to improve Probly and ensure we get another year+ to keep executing on creating great betting products.

We appreciate all of you who’ve provided support, whether it be reading this email, paying for a membership, or some of you who’ve helped evangelize the product, give good feedback, and tell us about your awesome results (or things you want to see). This is a marathon, not a sprint. So every little victory we get in terms of your satisfaction — or guidance that can help us earn it with our future tweaks and pushes — really does mean a lot.

Of course, we’ve got to keep an even head and be prepared if this comes through or if it somehow doesn’t. The work continues and always will.

Get a 7-day free trial through the App Store OR save 50% with promo code FIRST on any monthly OR yearly package at Probly.com/subscribe.

I also will literally give YOU a free month of Probly+ if you leave us five stars AND a review on the App Store. Just leave your Probly username in there so I know it’s you and I will reach out and give you a free month on your account. It’s that easy to get a $19.99 value for $0 to show our love for you supporting us.

If you guys encounter any issues not covered here or want to provide feedback, you can email me [email protected].

As always, thanks to all of you who read all the way down here. I’m glad we can keep plugging along with the Most Profitable challenge and I hope more of you make the leap. It’s a fun time to be betting with basketball, pro and college, and MLB coming hot and heavy soon. You and Shohei Otani’s interpreter (wink) both would do well to join the fam here at Probly.

You know I have to do one more plug: It’s a great time to get your free seven-day trial of Probly+ on the App Store or use promo code FIRST to get 50% off at Probly.com/subscribe (under $100 for a first year or under $10 for a first month). Change your life in betting! I’ll see you guys next week!