💸 HUGE Update To Probly — And The Optimal Settings To Make The Most Of It

We’ve had a few quality writeups to start the email lately about 5 approaches that make a winning bettor and the biggest mistake costing sports bettors thousands everyday.

We’ll get back to that likely next week. But today It’s a short intro because I’ve got a breakdown of our EXCITING NEW ADDITION to Probly: Our advanced filters for Profitability, Probability, Last Updated, and Live!

I’ve got a full breakdown in the Product Updates portion of the email — including various optimal settings to get the most bets, the highest upside bets, the safest bets, and the settings to put together PrizePicks or Underdog Pick’Ems.

With these additions, it’s a great time to either 1) Check out our 7-day free trial of Probly on the App Store or 2) Get 50% off a month OR year with promo code FIRST at probly.com/subscribe! We are an independent, bootstrapped company started by two lifelong friends who just want to help people make money at betting and we work hard to make this thing better for you guys daily.

We’ve still got our weekly product update below along with the best bets I can find right now. Here’s your Probly Email for March 1st, 2024! - @ChrisSpags

• 🏀 The NBA

• 🔓 Probly Updates: Advanced Filtering Is Live for Probly+ — Here’s How It Works And Some Suggested Optimal Settings

It’s been a nice week for our bets in content — including a genuinely pride-inducing first half moneyline win for the Grizzlies at +325 odds two days ago — so let’s see if we can keep it rolling heading into the weekend.

Here’s the Top 10 bets for today, from a video done earlier this afternoon:

And here’s they are in text too since they’re readily accessible — yes there’s more than 10, it is very hard to do it while recording and producing a video live. Note: These are in order from lowest PROBLY Score to highest:

Of course our best bets are always updated all night and day so get more for yourself at Probly.com or on the App Store (leave a review with your Probly username and get a free month of Probly+)!

One of our more ambitious product tweaks is now live — You now have advanced filtering options for Profitability, Probability, and Last Updated time if you are a Probly+ subscriber.

People will I’m sure be curious to know optimal settings given that you now have a lot more flexibility on this product. I’d encourage you to play with it since, frankly, there may be subsets of results you can achieve that we’re not aware of on a micro level (i.e. a massive ROI on bets over a 55% probability and a PROBLY Score above 5).

But if you want the basics, here are some key potential settings to know:

Generally in backtesting, we found bets with a PROBLY Score over 2 had a reliable 12-20% ROI per sport with a 45-60% win rate. These were the default settings for the “Most Profitable” sort previously. This setting would give you the biggest volume of bets with reliable profitability.

There are diminishing returns with any bet at a PROBLY Score over 1 due to the potential of that being within a margin of error but those bets boast positive ROIs and win rates too (at higher volume).

For content, I’d like to give us the best shot at 5-0 or 10-0 type of days since it’ll make promoting the product easier. So I personally plan to target bets with a PROBLY Score over 4 in our videos and written stuff. These settings give bets with slightly more upside — in terms of profitability or probability as it relates to profitability — at slightly less volume.

The reason that’s a “for content” setting than a practial one: You would likely get better results for overall profitability if you play more volume of +EV bets at a lower PROBLY Score since the biggest value of +EV betting like ours is getting as big of a sample size as possible to increase your mathematical advantage.

If you were playing as risk aversely as possible — perhaps trying to take slightly mispriced bets in a parlay — I’d target bets with a PROBLY Score above 4 and a probability of 50% or more. You’re limiting upside a little there by missing out on some of the high PROBLY Score bets around 40-50% but this would likely generate a quality win rate with a little giveback on ROI due to not paying off some longer shot bets.

I’d also apply these kinds of settings for parlay building in an effort to get your best value on a big shot from the combination of events that are slightly undervalued in terms of their hit rate and profitability.

Last setting to note — and we do plan to build something a little more direct for this in the future, but for now — if you are a PrizePicks or Underdog Pick’Em user, you should grab any bet over a 54% probability (55% if you want to be a nit). The reason? Both PrizePicks and Underdog have a 54.9% implied probablity per-leg on a five-leg Pick’Em, meaning you need to have your bets consist of that same amount to stay theoretically +EV over time. If you see a prop line over that probability on Probly, check it on PrizePicks/Underdog and add it to your card if it’s there.

You also now have the ability to filter by only Live games too if you’re a Probly+ Live user, which should be self-explanatory. Same for Last Updated, which allows you to filter events down to only ones in the last hour. We regularly pull bets that are stale near immediately but we figured some people may want that.

We currently are working on getting these same filters live on the View All Bets area on Explore (which is not a frequently used feature by people who aren’t me so bear with us on that.

Get a 7-day free trial through the App Store OR save 50% with promo code FIRST on any monthly OR yearly package at Probly.com/subscribe.

I also will literally give YOU a free month of Probly+ if you leave us five stars AND a review on the App Store. Just leave your Probly username in there so I know it’s you and I will reach out and give you a free month on your account. It’s that easy to get a $19.99 value for $0 to show our love for you supporting us.

If you guys encounter any issues not covered here or want to provide feedback, you can email me [email protected].

As always, thanks to all of you who read all the way down here. We hope you guys enjoy the improvements we continue to make to the app since we feel like we get closer to building the best version of our product with everything we push.

Eventually, we’re going to have to hunker down to develop more for the less-fun stuff — like better ways to convert people on the site/app into paying customers — but we continue to focus on making the product as powerful and effective as possible in the hopes that the product and its ability to make you money speaks for itself.

Get your free seven-day trial of Probly+ on the App Store or use promo code FIRST to get 50% off at Probly.com/subscribe (under $100 for a first year or under $10 for a first month) and I’ll see you guys next week!