🎰 We Hit EVERY MLB Bet The Last Time We Did This Email

Back with another Probly email and I’ll open by flagging one thing you may have missed: Last Friday, we hit EVERY SINGLE BET in our Top 10 MLB bets (excluding the lower probability home run picks).

I wish Pikkit had a nice screengrab to throw in here (they don’t make it easy to isolate one day’s results) to show it but that meant over a 9-unit gain last week just from Friday’s bets.

Does that mean it’ll happen again this Friday in this very same email?

OF COURSE NOT!

But does it feel good when it happens? Of course it does!

That’s what Probly provides. This ability to, at least occasionally, pull off something miraculous in sports betting — while still staying afloat or, hopefully, better everyday. It’s something that you can’t research previous results to land on and, frankly, the kind of results you’re unlikely to luckbox even if you’re a skilled handicapper.

It’s been our goal to democratize this kind of data and opportunity for everyone rather than just people who can afford to pay $500-$1000/month for similar tools. To make it simple enough to engage in as if you were a bettor who treats betting like an options market. So we really hope talking about this honestly encourages some of you to take the leap.

If you get 50% off your first month or year now — under $10 for a first month or under $100 for A YEAR — with promo code FIRST. Or get a seven-day free trial on the App Store version! With the sportsbook filtering and the success of our underlying API — which has a 12-20% ROI per sport — you will win more in sports betting if you use Probly intelligently.

Today, we’ll take another run through the day’s MLB bets, some bonus EMAIL EXCLUSIVE ones, and our product updates along with one interesting betting data revelation for us on a company level! It’s your Probly Email for May 31st, 2024! - @ChrisSpags

• 🏀 MLB And WNBA (!!!) Best Bets

• 🔓 Probly Updates: We Just Need 0.1%

I mentioned it up top but it still genuinely tickles my loins when we see a perfect day for the Top 5, let alone ALL of the bets we featured in a video on a day we also sent out in this very email (aside from the lower probability home runs which are as volatile can be).

Recently passed psychologist Daniel Kahneman did extensive research on investor psychology and found one key thing: Nothing makes people want to invest more than knowing previous results. Even the most seasoned investors have an issue backing down off of a previous price of a stock or its prior performance.

So how can we NOT win every MLB bet again this Friday? 😇

As always, I try to find a few bonus email exclusive ones too. With a few days until the NBA FInals, we’re going to get different today. I’m currently 6-0 in WNBA this year with our data but, because of the lack of games on a daily basis, we can’t really do content around it. So today’s the day! WNBA best bets!

Of course our best bets, probabilities, and PROBLY Scores are always updated all night and day so get more for yourself at Probly.com or on the App Store. Find the best bets on YOUR preferred sportsbook and win more in sports betting now!

^Here’s our video tutorial on optimal settings. Read our previous post on optimal settings before you dive in to betting with Probly’s data.

Productwise, we flipped the switch on removing our voting and commenting tools on the site, as discussed last week. We also made a change to our underlying APIs to keep up with a random change our data provider OddsJam gave us, which took some bandwidth this week.

Having completed those things, we’re currently working on a wave of minor improvements as well as the Google Play version of the app.

We also received a bit of a kick in the dick this week businesswise where, after getting an interview with YCombinator, we did not get into their Summer ‘24 cohort. It’s one of those things where getting into YC would have been a huge credibility boost for what we’re doing — specifically, getting out of the “ghetto” that sports betting products are forced into. It may also shock you to hear: Fucking EVERYTHING they invested in is some thinly veiled AI ChatGPT wrapper bullshit.

That aside, it also would have taken me away from my two-year-old son for three months since YC requires you to relocate for the Bay Area. I would have done it for the sake of helping our Probly business reach a ceiling outcome — as well as securing a better floor one — but, personally, I really do not want to lose any of my time with our son Luka in one of his most important developmental periods. Net net, it’s probably one of those good/bad things.

So, instead, our neverending Probly roadshow continues, including two large group presentations here in the Philly area over the next few weeks. I’m a little burned out between revisions to our deck — designed to slim it out for a presentation, thanks to some helpful coaching from one of our presenting groups coming up — as well as some other labor-intensive funding applications I’ve had to do.

The good news? When working through some financial projections for the app — assuming we can find the funding we need — we realized a really interesting thing about the business:

Based upon our current LTV (Lifetime Value) of a customer, we need to convert 0.1% of EVERY “regular” US bettor into a Probly customer.

There are currently about 31 million people — and growing — who bet three or more times per week (including your PrizePicks/Underdog/Betr folks), according to American Gaming Association data. If we achieve that number, we’ll have hit our Year 2 projections and this company is a rocketship since our LTV is likely to increase as the company exists longer.

The point is: Between our results, the product itself, and some of this projectable math I’ve had to think about more, I see the pathway to success more clearly than ever.

Our App Store downloads continue to go up — with no paid promotion, which matters A LOT for App Store Optimization — our traffic and time spent remain right in line.

The big issue? I need to continue to sharpen MY sales pitch to others to make them see what I see. Particularly as it relates to pitching older people who may not know sports betting, think I talk too fast, etc. I’ve never worked in sales (other than selling things through content) but fundraising is, quiet frankly, all sales.

The main thing I learned from reading everything about YCombinator when I thought we had a shot to get in: The biggest issue for EVERY startup is just keeping it alive long enough to reach the nut outcome it may deserve. Obviously you need to improve, iterate, listen to customers, all that…but it’s just a game of keeping it alive.

So rest assured: I will die before I let Probly die. This is my life’s work, my best effort to democratize key information in an industry that’s happy to bleed every single one of us dry. Let’s hope that leads to us finding that 0.1%.

If you guys encounter any issues not covered here or want to provide feedback, you can email me [email protected].

As always, thanks to all of you who read all the way down here. I try to lay it all out there every email with what we’re experiencing in our startup journey so I hope, even if it doesn’t turn you into a subscriber, you can see the work we put in to be a force for good in a sports betting industry without a lot of them.

But if you do want to be turned into a subscriber!: It’s a great time to get your free seven-day trial of Probly+ on the App Store or use promo code FIRST to get 50% off at Probly.com/subscribe (under $100 for a first year or under $10 for a first month). Stop researching, start winning! I’ll see you guys next week!