⚾️ A Great Day For Great MLB Bets

Hello friends! It’s been a long but productive week at Probly and I can’t wait to tell you about it!

New to Probly? Learn more about optimal settings for Probly, expected value/market-based betting, or see a product demo from me!

You can also see testimonials and more about the product at Probly.com as well as get a 7-day free trial (and 50% off on top with promo code FIRST).

With the Opening Night for the Olympics going off, check out my big breakdown on Olympic betting with some possible edges to exploit if you want!

Today, we’re back with a run through the day’s MLB bets and some company/product updates, including a really big new update we’ve wanted for a while that we plan to push within the week. It’s your Probly Email for July 26th, 2024! - @ChrisSpags

• ⚾️ MLB Best Bets

• 🔓 Probly Updates: An Exciting New Addition Coming Soon

It’s been an exciting return to the world of MLB betting post-All Star break, particularly after the first few days — including the bets in this email last week – were mostly mid. But that’s the kind of candor I can give you when we know the value of our underlying data, and the 12-20% ROI we backtest to achieve per sport (still a 15% ROI for our content bets so far this month).

Last week we went a little low on the probability bar for our email exclusive bet because it was so mathematically profitable at a 9.9 PROBLY Score. Today, we’re going closer to a coin toss to hopefully pick up a W and look cool to you if it wins:

Of course our best bets, probabilities, and PROBLY Scores are always updated all night and day so get more for yourself at Probly.com or on the App Store. Find the best bets on YOUR preferred sportsbook and win more in sports betting now!

New to Probly? Learn more about optimal settings for Probly, expected value/market-based betting, or see a product demo from me!

We’re finalizing some adjustments to our Apple user authorization that have no real impact on anyone on here — besides people who aren’t paying their membership costs on Apple, I suppose — that has taken a bit more time than I’d normally like to see.

But the big news is that we also brokered a deal with our data partners at OddsJam that will allow us to get one more big feature out before our next new product push: Sportsbook deeplinks.

We’re currently coding it out but sometime next week, you’ll be able to actually directly transact bets through Probly. Each market slide on Probly will come with a “Bet Now” button that allows you to immediately hit the sportsbook in the Best Bet. You’ll be able to place bets faster, ensuring you get the best price.

We are still not an affiliate for these sportsbooks so we are adding this feature — candidly, at additional cost to us — because our goal is to give our paying customers the most seamless, easily transactable +EV betting experience around. Being able to bet with one click is a big part of that expectation.

This will also allow us to setup the next steps of our product, which are really exciting. We want to build these features out quickly to ensure they’re out Week 1 of NFL season.

We’re working hard here as always so your support goes a long way if you want to kick off a membership now at Probly.com.

—-

We also finished up our cohort of noted angel investor and founder (Uber, Weblogs Inc, This Week in Startups podcast) Jason Calacanis’ Founder University, which was a helpful series of classes. We unfortunately started late due to a very kind referral that came after the program kicked off, which put me a little behind the 8-ball in terms of catching up on previous things and missing some of the early bonding between founders, as much as there can be virtually.

Besides that, I do think they had a very helpfully curated class. Some parts of it were a little more beginner focused — things we’ve had done because Probly has been a company legally since 2022 and been a product functionally since November of last year — but I learned a key few things I didn’t know before. It helped me hone our pitch deck in a way that aligns more with Bay Area VC-level investor expectations. I also gained a little more rigor to some items we needed to prepare for our next stage of the company.

It got me into the founder headspace in a thoughtful way, as opposed to the feeling of floundering in deep water it can sometimes be day to day.

I’d recommend Founder University if you’ve had the itch to build a company, particularly if you haven’t already forced yourself into the trial by fire that is building it already. Even if you don’t have an idea, the goal is to make it so you can find one and build from there. If you have one — let alone any proof of concept, customer interviews, or product built out — they’ll help you refine your process and learn some things that, honestly, it took me months to learn through trial and error on our own with Probly.

Applications for their next cohort are open if you’re interested. You have to place a $500 deposit for the class but it’s refunded if you go to most of the sessions.

If you guys encounter any issues not covered here or want to provide feedback, you can email me [email protected].

As always, thanks to all of you who read all the way down here. We’re cautiously optimistic there’s good things coming for us. We’re excited to get the opportunity to keep evolving the product. Cautious optimism!

It’s a great time to learn more about Probly and start a free trial at Probly.com! Get your head around the product in time for NFL season and get in on a very successful MLB season while you still can!