⚾️ HOORAY! There's Something To Bet On Again!

A few weeks back I bravely pointed out some of the expected edge in WNBA betting as their season started, only to see it materialize immediately via our data as well as some others I’ve seen out there on social media doing WNBA betting.

We’ve looked at the Olympics a bit as well in advance of that in the hopes of having a similar edge since I do believe we’ll have some markets available on Probly for the sports we already cover (I.e. basketball/tennis/soccer).

The biggest findings after digging into some historical data:
-The market movements — and, in particular, Closing Line Value/Expected Value from early markets before the lines have time to settle — look remarkably similar to the primary sports leagues they correlate with. As a result, our backtested ROI remained right in line with the 12-20% ROI we ensure before we deploy a sport’s data without us having to change anything.
-Sports with daily games and lines had the most Expected Value, which is typically the case due to the lack of time for market data to inform the sportsbooks. NFL is regarded as “the most efficient market” because of the action it gets informing odds but it’s true of any sport that has lines sitting around for days or a week.
-We don’t intend to have data for stuff like Swimming or Badminton. Because of those being bet like golf markets (i.e. 20+ people in a field as opposed to a 1v1 bet), you can find inefficiencies of probability but — with a heavy volume of favorites winning — it’s hitting at a rate lower than even a home run bet in some cases.

We couldn’t test this fully in data but one pet theory of mine: I’d bet that legal US sportsbooks have pricing for US teams that is misaligned with their true probability. America is the most “public team”, like a Packers or Cowboys in football historically or a Chiefs now. As a result, they’ll get the same action a Luka Doncic triple double gets or a Mike Trout over does.

Just knowing how these markets work — and how casual bettors bet – I’d say you’re way more likely to get value, particularly in “mainstream events”, fading the US.

I’m sure we’ll talk more about the Olympics in the upcoming weeks — particularly since my wife is on their agency’s social team and will be working EVERY WEEKEND while I have to take care of our two-year-old, sick league! — so put aside your patriotism, embrace your love of gambling, and stay tuned.

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Today, we’re back with a run through the day’s MLB bets and some company/product updates. It’s your Probly Email for July 19th, 2024! - @ChrisSpags

• ⚾️ MLB Best Bets

• 🔓 Probly Updates: The Slow Time in Sports Betting

Last week, I mentioned some excitement for a shorter card for our last day of content before the MLB All-Star break. We ended up profiting two units between all the bets in this email, largely from a heater of an MLB card that included 4-1 in the Top 5. Let’s pray this hot July continues with today’s best MLB bets!

With no WNBA and only a few Summer League +EV bets, your email exclusive bet for today is just going to be the Most Profitable bet I can find as I’m about to send this email. So here you go:

Of course our best bets, probabilities, and PROBLY Scores are always updated all night and day so get more for yourself at Probly.com or on the App Store. Find the best bets on YOUR preferred sportsbook and win more in sports betting now!

New to Probly? Learn more about optimal settings for Probly, expected value/market-based betting, or see a product demo from me!

We had a few things to tidy up this week, including Probly’s email code login flow (which you likely didn’t notice) and some Apple authorization stuff. We’re also in the planning stages for our big pre-NFL season project, which we’re going to try to get building on next week, while I wait around to see what we have or don’t have on the investment front.

As I briefly discussed last week, it’s honestly been a stressful few weeks since it felt like we were very close to our first check (not coming from my pocket). Now the expected Summer lull has kicked in and, as a result, we’re on pins and needles waiting to hear a response to our latest ask.

The obvious trickledown of billables is one thing but with the potential impact this would have on both our personal lives (being paid for the first time in a year) and the company (resources to start building new things even more aggressively along with just not having to worry about the monthly costs), it’s a lot to have hanging over our heads like a sword of Damacles.

Particularly when paired with the lull of no content this week due to the lack of MLB games — as well as a WNBA Olympic break and not a lot for Summer League, at least not enough to make a video for — it made for a little bit of a drain on motivation and sanity for me this week. Thankfully, this much time being bootstrapped startup founders for my CTO and I allowed us to recenter around that as the week went on. But it was definitely one of those harder weeks.

We’re excited about what we can hopefully do next, particularly with us currently having a record number of trials going between App Store and Stripe despite very little sports out there. But man, the grind is a grind sometimes.

If you guys encounter any issues not covered here or want to provide feedback, you can email me [email protected].

As always, thanks to all of you who read all the way down here. I tip my hand a little more about things than I should in the quest to talk openly about this journey since we started this email back in 2022. But it’s all in service of trying to show the struggle and also the beauty that comes with trying to build something unique for yourself and for, theoretically, the greater good.

It’s a great time to learn more about Probly and start a free trial at Probly.com! Get your head around the product in time for NFL season and get in on a very successful MLB season while you still can!