🥣 Fear For The Chiefs In Updated Super Bowl Markets?

It is Super Bowl Eve and the energy is palpable, at least in the Philly area. Lunkheads wearing Kelly green everywhere, our baby's daycare might close for a day so the staff can go to the parade, it's hard to not catch the fever — unless you're me and grew up hating the Eagles and their fans because they cheered lustfully when Michael Irvin was temporarily paralyzed in a game. The formative memories of childhood!With that in mind, we've got updated most probable markets from the Super Bowl, Probly product updates (which will hopefully give you an unsanitized look into the pains of building a startup), and the rest of the sports world too! Here's your Probly email for February 11th, 2023! - @ChrisSpags

• 🔓 Probly Beta updates

• 🏈 Updated most probable bets for the Chiefs-Eagles Super Bowl

• 👑 The most probable bets from the NBA, UFC, and whatever else seems interesting!

If you've been on our list for Probly for a while, you may know how this weekly email is largely to get you guys familiar with our product and to provide waitlist access when we're good to go. But I've also covered our process getting this off the ground while talking honestly about the excitement, struggles, and frustrations that occur when trying to build your dream product without any institutional investment.Our goal was to get this Probly Beta into your hands for the Super Bowl. It's what I contracted with our external dev team and imparted heavily to our CTO. But the product had to be RIGHT and be something I would use daily to make money before we put it out or else, what's the point of this exercise? And, unfortunately, we've fallen short of that goal as it relates to having this good to go for you right now.The tech of it: In addition to the pull of actually coding this all out, we had issues with our Amazon DynamoDB setup and its ability to handle thousands of updating markets that resulted in our CTO having to re-do everything in a different database language while also working through crosswalking our true probabilities with active sportsbook betting opportunities from our partner data feed. It's a lot that's been done and a lot more that has to be done.And it's just not there yet. It's close, which you can see in these screenshots:

I could wax poetic about the disappointment and, honestly, the shame I feel not delivering on something when promoting it to you guys. I genuinely don't know how people who take money for a Kickstarter and don't deliver a final product live with themselves. But I'm not sure that those thoughts help me or anyone else. Ultimately, the one thing I know is this will be a usable, value-adding product when we have it live for everyone and we won't settle for anything less than that. When people play with Probly for the first time, I want them to not be able to put it down. I want them to see the value added right away. We hope to get this out within the next month and we will only do it when I can give it my full co-sign with whatever minute level of influence I have.When the product is live for you all, I will make sure to put that in the Subject Line of these emails and write a thorough walkthrough of how to use everything. For now, we're trusting the process and I hope you guys understand that it's not for lack of effort. It is not easy doing this on bootstrapped resources, even harder than I realized as someone who did the legwork, but we're going to get there.

Last week I covered the most probable markets for this Super Bowl matchup between the Chiefs and Eagles and a lot of them have held steady where they are. But there are some new alternate markets that seem interesting which have popped up among the most probable. Let's talk about those:

• Chiefs +10.5, 76.8% probability - We talked last week about the Eagles' +7.5 line among the most probable markets as a reflection on a market-perceived worst case scenario for the Eagles, that they might lose by a touchdown. For the Chiefs, we are now seeing the potential of them to actually have the Eagles blow them out. Obviously the most likely worst case outcome is that they will stay within 10.5 points, or roughly lose by max one field goal + touchdown. You also get a reflection on the likelihood that the Chiefs get smoked with their 23.2% probability they lose by 10.5 or more. For people playing DraftKings this week, I would take that to mean you should have roughly 1/5th-1/4th of your lineups accounting for an Eagles blowout. It's not the most likely. But you stand to profit largely if that angle hits.

• Under 63.5 points, 76.1% probability - Even with this being an Under, this is another VERY high bar for scoring. Last week we saw the game scoring under 57.5 points at a 68.4% probability amongst the top markets. This week we see a lot of action coming on it scoring even more. Any overs bet on earlier markets likely have gained in value as a result of seeing this one pop up. What it basically amounts to is hedging by people with a lot of money riding on the event and they've now seen enough market movement and research to say that, yes, there is a good chance this game scores a lot of points. And they just want to win if the game shoots out to a more reasonable level.

• Under 60.5 points, 71.9% probability - This bet also now made our top-five most probable and I'm including it here mostly to cement that previous point. Particularly when you consider the main market at a 51 point over/under hasn't moved much this week, the alternate markets tell an interesting tale of the people who spend the most money being petrified that this game gets out of hand scoring-wise.

• Chiefs +7.5, 71.9% probability - Another line that echoes the fear of a Chiefs loss. I still can't count out Patrick Mahomes and co, especially in a DraftKings Showdown format where you'll be rewarded the most for getting very low probability outcomes correct. But these alternate markets have really steamed up with lines that paint the picture of the Chiefs potentially losing by a TD or more with a lot of points scored. If anything, you should at least start to expect that the Eagles will put up a healthy amount of points against an inferior Chiefs defense with the offense needing to heavily dig out of that hole.

Shoutout to Kosovo basketball league stalwart Golden Eagle Ylli being the uncrowned most probable champion. Their game versus BC Rahoveci has odds of a Golden Eagle Ylli win at a 96.2% probability, which is tops for the week.But, of course, you're not likely to find those odds on your DraftKings or Fanduel. So instead we go to the NCAA where a Miami win leads the way with a 92.3% probability against former powerhouse Louisville. The rest of the top five: a Yale win at a 92% probability, a Texas A&M (Corpus Christi) win at a 91.5% probability, a College of Charleston win at a 90.9% probability, and a Furman win at an 89.3% probability. College hoops will be fertile ground for our Probly beta so get used to hearing about all of that. There's no joy greater than watching some team you know nothing about on ESPN+ because you bet a little too much on them and quickly learning which players to love or to hate.

In the NBA following a batsh*t trade deadline, you'll find a Hawks win as most probable with an 86% probability, then a Hawks moneyline (1st half) at a 78.3%, a Nuggets win at a 75.1% probability, a Hawks moneyline (1st quarter) at a 73.7% probability, and a Hawks moneyline (2nd quarter) at a 69.1% probability. You'd think from these markets that there's only like three games today but, nope, nine games...it's just that the Hawks are playing the incredibly skilled tankers that are the San Antonio Spurs.UFC has a big card tonight with Volkanovski-Makhachev billed as a battle between two of the pound-for-pound best. The most probable events: a Zubaira Tukhugov win at a 82.7% probability, an Islam Makhachev win at a 78% probability (so perhaps not quite as much of a battle as expected?), a Jack Jenkins win at a 76.5% probability, a Kelydson Rodrigues win at a 75.1% probability, and a Loma Lookboonmee win at a 74.9% probability.

Another one in the books and, as always, thanks to those of you who make it to the end. I'm bummed you guys won't have our product to help knock out some low-lift Super Bowl bets but there's good stuff to come. We'll keep grinding on the back end because this beauty will be in your hands soon, even if it kills me.Good luck with whatever Super Bowl action you've got going, churn some deposit bonuses with Miami maybe, and I'll see you guys next week!