🔫 A Super Bowl Shootout According To Market Data?

We're a week out from the Super Bowl and hopefully a few days away from getting our fully functional Probly beta into both my hands and yours. So as you can imagine: It is both an exciting and IMMENSELY stresssful time!That said, we've got some Super Bowl odds to talk about and a quick jaunt through the rest of the world of sports so let's get it! Here's your Probly email for February 4th, 2023! - @ChrisSpags

• 🏈 Current most probable bets from next week's Super Bowl between the Chiefs and Eagles

• 👑 The most probable bets from the NBA, UFC, and whatever else seems interesting!

In our Conference Championship writeup, I highlighted some of the noteworthy markets that spelled out why to expect Eagles and Chiefs wins...only to get too cute and advocate for the inverse. It's an important reminder that even I, someone that has been firmly in the weeds of this market data, have to remind myself: Top markets around the world (particularly the ones we cull our true probabilities from at Probly) know more than us and prove it with their money. It doesn't mean these markets can't be wrong — let's never forget our newly re-retired GOAT Tom Brady blowing historic win probabilities TWICE this year — but it does mean that playing the highest likelihood outcome should be choice 1a and 1b and our innuendos/gut leans are a clear option 2.So let's get into our top five markets right now for our Super Bowl matchup with the Chiefs "at" the Eagles in Arizona. Next week: Hopefully some props will stand out for next week's email since those will be a key part of our beta release that we have yet to roll out in these here emails.

• #1 Most Probable: Eagles +7.5, 74.6% probability - The +7.5 line appeared in both our games last week as one of the most probable events with both Niners +7.5 and Chiefs +7.5. The Niners, admittedly with horrendous luck of a UCL tear for their starting third-stringer and a concussion for their fourth-stringer, did not do anything with their line while the Chiefs were comfortably within range throughout. I'd expect more of the latter in this spot with the Eagles. Two teams of this caliber, both of whom leading their respective conference all year long, seem unlikely to yield a blowout. The worst case outcome for Eagles fans is them being within one score by the end of it all.

• #2 Most Probable: Under 57.5 points, 68.4% probability - As I mentioned in the intro, option 1a and 1b is: Yes, this game scores under 57.5 points. However, these high bar alternate totals tend to be a good reflection on the expectation of scoring. The main over/under has come up to 50.5 points from 49.5 earlier in the week. With two potent offenses and only the Eagles defense being anything noteworthy, a shoot out (or maybe even just the Eagles putting up a ton of points) seems firmly in play.

• #3 Most Probable: Over 44.5 points, 68.4% probability - An identical probability to the last one indicates that there is more than a 2 in 3 chance this game safely yields over 3 touchdowns for each side. This would support the previous market's take of a shootout while giving you some idea of how often you should target unders. There's a 31.6% probability of under 44.5 points so if you were, say, playing a DraftKings Showdown, you should have 30%ish of your lineups reflecting a more defensively-minded matchup.

• #4 Most Probable: Eagles +3 (1st half), 63% probability - There are two ways to interpret this line: 1) The Eagles' worst case scenario is trailing by a field goal heading into halftime 2) The Chiefs should be in control. Those interpretations don't go hand in hand (the Eagles could have their best case scenario and be up 10 and would still hit the first part but not the second while the Chiefs could be up three field goals for the entire first half, give up a late TD, and not cover that line at halftime). Based on the primary markets favoring Philly, I'd tend to think the 1st door is the one to follow and expect that even if things run bad for the Eagles, they're likely still within a kick by half.

• #5 Most Probable: Under 10.5 points (1st quarter), 62.9% probability - This is an interesting one to land within the top five because those more probable markets really do seem to indicate there should be some scoring. Super Bowls do sometimes start slow with the nerves, all the waiting around, and the chess match feeling out process that can go on between two great coaches. Targeting an early under but an over for the game seems entirely plausible, especially if we see one team have to press the gas to catch up.

Another Probly email, another week of me depriving an innocent international basketball team of their time in the Most Likely spotlight. This week it's a Greek women's squad where an Olympiakos Piraeus win leads the world with a 96.2% probability. Poor AEO Proteas Voulas never knew what hit em.But, of course, you're not likely to find those odds on your DraftKings or Fanduels. So instead we go to the NBA where the Warriors will face a Luka Doncic-less Mavericks and likely crush that skeleton crew. A Warriors win is most probable today in the NBA with a 79.1% probability.Then, shockingly, you'll see the normally tanking Oklahoma City in #2 with a Thunder win over fellow basement dweller the Rockets at a 78.4% probability, the Warriors moneyline (1st half) at a 71.7% probability, the Thunder moneyline (1st half) at a 70.6% probability, and the Thunder moneyline (1st quarter) at a 68.4% probability. It's rare to have two teams dominate the NBA markets quite like this on a day with a full slate of games so I'd treat these games accordingly as very likely dominant ones.

The Senior Bowl goes on today and, while the practices are the highlight of the process as it relates to the NFL Draft, I'm sure someone will want to bet on it. It's all alternate spreads in the top five with the Jaren Hall/Jake Haener-led National team seemingly fighting to hang on. National +4 (1st half) is most probable at a 64.5% probability followed by National +3.5 (1st half) at a 61.7% probability. Then you get American +2.5 (1st half) at a 59.6% probability, American +1.5 (1st half) at a 58.7% probability, and National +3 (1st half) at a 58.3% probability. What this means: It's basically NFL preseason and the markets have ZERO CLUE about what happens after the first half. But it should be a dog fight!In college hoops, you get an Arizona win at a 92% probability, a Toledo win at a 90.8% probability, a Princeton win at a 90.3% probability (sorry to Columbia, the college whom I once played my high school homecoming on their field), a NC State win is at an 89.9% probability, and a Marquette win is at an 89.4% probability. The most interesting MMA fight of the night is the legendary Fedor Emelianenko facing Ryan Bader in his retirement match in Bellator. If Fedor wins, he retires as Champion. Unfortunately, a Ryan Bader win is tops for their fight at a 72.5% probability followed by under 1.5 rounds, a bad sign for Fedor getting KO'd out the door but maybe some faint hope he can steal it with one big shot.In the UFC, you'll get a top five that includes a Tatsuro Taira win up top at a gaudy 90.3% probability followed by a Rinya Nakamura win at a 79.6% probability. Then there's an Islam Makhachev win at a 77.5% probability, Ji Yeon Kim & Mandy Kim over 2.5 rounds at a 76.6% probability, and a Yusaku Kinoshita win at a 75.4% probability. The main event is Sergey Spivak-Derrick Lewis and the markets support a Spivak win at a 70.3% probability with a lean towards under 1.5 rounds at a 54.4% probability. Derrick Lewis: More meme than fighter? Maybe!

Another one in the books and I will once again thank all the brave souls who made it to this part of the email. It was genuinely moving for me to see our product work live in some capacity a few days ago so I will be on pins and needles until I can bring our Probly beta to you all next week. This has been 9 months of our lives developing this thing, banging our head against the wall amidst a collapse of the funding industry, and now it's dangerously close to becoming a reality without raising a cent from anyone besides my own DraftKings wins. I can't wait for you all to get to play with it and, hopefully, make some money and get hooked.Have a great weekend and I'll see you guys next week with a hopefully fully functional Probly product and some more on the Super Bowl! Pray for our collective sanities and I'll see you next week!