⚾️ Can The Most Profitable Challenge Go 5-0?

Another busy week here at Probly — including our SECOND Demo Day in two weeks — but I’ll talk more about that at the end of the email.

I have to victory lap one thing though: The last time we did this email was one of the best we’ve had yet for our content picks, going +11 units last Friday on a 12-6 day. We closed the month 134-123-7 and fell just short of my +30 unit goal with +27.4u and a 22% ROI.

These results are not necessarily typical — even our underlying API can only promise a 12-20% ROI per sport, assuming you hit EVERY bet — but it does show you the potential of what you can do with frequent usage of Probly. Particularly if you place bets at the same times each day, as I do, or even more optimally hit bets multiple times a day.

The more volume you post (ideally at a responsible unit size as it relates to your bankroll), the more likely you are to be closer to underlying ROI of our data.

There’s no hidden secret here. Use the app (especially with our suggested optimal settings), trust the data, and give yourself a shot at creating success for yourself in sports betting. We’ve had users do even better than I did last month, including 8/8, 14/17, and 15/18 days. If you’re in a rut, give it a shot.

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Remember — It’s still betting. Probly will never be the company that tells you anything is a lock because nothing is a lock. But with our approach, you give yourself the best shot to have positive Expected Value and maximize the opportunities while learning even more.

Change your life in betting! Get 50% off your first month or year now — under $10 for your first month or under $100 for A YEAR — with promo code FIRST. Or get a seven-day free trial on the App Store version!

Today, we’ll share our tracked NBA Top 10 bets along with our Most Profitable challenge for the week and a few MLB bets plus our usual run through products and business. Here’s your Probly Email for April 5th, 2024! - @ChrisSpags

• 🏀 Top NBA Bets and an MLB Most Profitable Challenge

• 🔓 Probly Updates: Another Probly Demo Day!

The Most Profitable challenge moved to 4-0 thanks to the Marlins and Pirates putting up a respectable amount of runs last week. We’ll put that record on the line AGAIN right now!

If you tail this bet I’m about to show you, send me a screenshot at Probly.com before the game starts [email protected]. If the bet loses, I will comp you a free month of Probly+. If the bet wins, I expect you to pay for a month of Probly+ at whichever tier you deem appropriate. That’s the bet between gentlemen (or gentleman and lady, gentleman and talking dog, whatever).

The current best bet in this week’s Most Profitable challenge is:

Patrick Corbin under 4.5 strikeouts — 63% Probability — 4.5 PROBLY Score at -150 odds

Send your screenshots to me if you tail it BEFORE THE GAME [email protected]. First pitch is 6:45.

Otherwise, here’s the rest of the Top 10 NBA bets for today, from a video done this morning:

And here’s five bonus bets, mostly HRs, for MLB that I saw and just hit right before sending this email. It’s LOW probability stuff here so don’t be shocked if we get an 0-5 here. Doesn’t change the EV equation but I do want to set the bar since these kind of bets are WAY different than the 50/50-ish ones in NBA.

May the variance gods be on our side!

Of course our best bets, probabilities, and PROBLY Scores are always updated all night and day so get more for yourself at Probly.com or on the App Store.

^Here’s our video tutorial on optimal settings, which is also live as an interstitial for new users on Probly. Read our previous post on optimal settings before you dive in to betting with Probly’s data.

This week featured our second Demo Day of the last few weeks (with possibly one more to come in a few weeks) for a group of angel investors, this time at the historically prominent Union League in Philadelphia. It’s a tremendous building which once served as a meeting grounds for Union leadership during the Civil War period when Union vs Confederacy was still a thing. You can feel the history the moment you see the building, let along walk in.

I mentioned last week how good I felt with our pitch for the group of angel investors in Miami. We had some warm intros there, had spoken to a few investors in advance, and even had delicious empanadas right before the presentations began.

This one was the exact opposite.

I was late by ten minutes because we hit an ungodly amount of traffic coming from my suburb in Philly, what’s normally a 20 minute ride taking AN HOUR AND TEN MINUTES. My Uber driver was a lovely woman but the conversation was borderline depressing, talking about a tragedy that her family had experienced around her one-year-old grandson. Combining that with my having to run a few blocks then up a few flights of stairs while clad in my finest suit and let’s just say I did not feel in peak form.

I rushed through the presentation, talking fast by even my standards, and I believe undersold the best parts of our pitch. I handled the Q&A portion well, I felt, having calmed down and had my heart rate drop. But I felt my nerves and never fully caught up on the lack of cardio either from hustling my fat ass over to attempt to be as not late as possible.

It was a relatively quick and tightly timed 20 minutes — ten minutes to present, ten minutes for questions. I felt like I bombed it and immediately told my co-founder and wife such.

The good news? I didn’t bomb it as bad as I felt as we’ve already found out they also are going to begin a due diligence process with us as “several” of their members are interested.

It means a lot to me. As a kid who, along with my co-founder and CTO Edgar, grew up in the South Bronx to a middle class family, it is insane to me to be presenting to a room of some of the wealthiest people in the Mid-Atlantic region in a building that ol’ Honest Abe and the hang used to hang out in to talk strategy. It’s equally unfathomable to me that I can put out what I feel like is a subpar performance as a presenting CEO and people STILL have interest in our little app that could.

For those of you who’ve read this email since we started the process in September of 2022, you have seen the work. We have done the work. We continue to push with every fiber of our being. There’s still more to be done…but it’s starting to feel like the work is paying off. Hell, April is already our highest grossing month yet for Probly and we’re just FOUR days in. That’s really cool, even though there is still a lot of growth to be achieved to get this to breakeven, let alone turning a profit.

Besides that, nothing too crazy going on productwise. We’re working on one feature many of you have asked for — sportsbook filtering for only the ones you want to see — but I do not yet have an ETA on that. It’s a material shift from how I think you should view markets — just worrying about the best bet’s odds and how that relates to EV — but it will allow more personalization and ease of use to quickly transact off our data. That’s the goal, even if some people will greatly limit their pools of markets as a result.

We also have added Bet365 and firmly turned PointsBet into Fanatics on the app so you will find them more frequently listed as Best Bets. In particular, Bet365 may come up a lot because their odds seem to currently be the softest in the business, even more than ESPNBet.

We killed our video tutorial on the app for non-logged in users because we felt like it wasn’t leading to more conversions and may have actually hurt our funnel. We are going to try to find a way to serve a tutorial interstitial instead.

We also continue to work on some database items, particularly a way to delete stale items in the database that may be clogging up the ability to surface others. This is part of our overall goal to refine our search products, which will be a key feature to come.

If there’s anything you think we should be working on (as a paying customer or something you want to see that would make you a paying customer), let me know! My email is below!

If you guys encounter any issues not covered here or want to provide feedback, you can email me [email protected].

As always, thanks to all of you who read all the way down here. The Most Profitable challenge going to 4-0 feels nice so let’s see if we can keep it rolling!

You know I have to do one more plug: It’s a great time to get your free seven-day trial of Probly+ on the App Store or use promo code FIRST to get 50% off at Probly.com/subscribe (under $100 for a first year or under $10 for a first month). Change your life in betting! I’ll see you guys next week!