❌ Is There Any XFL Edge?

We took a week off the Probly email post-Super Bowl (and, candidly, since I was on solo baby duty last Saturday with the wife on leave for a bachelorette party). Luka did not have great probability-based takes and really hated naps so the vibes did not align with this email.But now we have to adjust to our post-NFL landscape with a bunch of sports along with some key product updates as we near what I pray to every deity is our home stretch. Here's your Probly email for February 25th, 2023! - @ChrisSpags

• 🔓 Probly Beta updates

• 👑 The most probable bets from NCAA hoops, the NBA, UFC, XFL and whatever else seems interesting!

I mentioned in our last Probly email how we ran into some data issues and overall product functionality items that delayed our Beta release. The product I personally sign off on and put in your hands via this email has to be something I believe in, that's the core promise here. Since then, our team has been grinding — myself included — and I hope that will give you some insight into the importance with which we view the product we want to bring to you.Remember how a few weeks ago, I discussed how we were close to a data deal for our legal sportsbook APIs? Well, it turns out we had to make a strategic pivot to a different provider who we are now signed with for the near future. And that choice is one that ultimately reflects what we initially thought this company was versus what we currently view it as so it's important you hear.In our initial pitch decks, we highlighted a site called Oddsjam as a potential competitor doing something noteworthy for users in the betting space. They bring similar Expected Value betting concepts to the table with quality technology, every sportsbook and market you can imagine, and, most importantly to me, they were a product I've enjoyed using as I worked through how to make Probly a reality.As a result, despite quality data and a commercially sold feed, I viewed them as "the competitor" and someone we'd have to avoid. We worked with another provider and built a great relationship with them. As we encountered these potential data integration hurdles — as well as a renewed focus on making sure this is 100% working the way I want users to first experience — prior to signing a long-term deal, we asked ourselves what the right choice is for our company. This particular choice is a crucial one for both our cash outlay and user trust reasons as the way we bring you live, actionable betting opportunities.And that's why we closed a deal with Oddsjam to use them as our official data provider. Future potential investors may view it as a risk point given our similar focuses but ultimately I thought the greatest value we can provide is to ensure the best possible data for our community. To partner with a company who is aligned in the same way to provide users with the best profitability-minded product they can is something that is hugely important to me. We could achieve a similar end with different data providers but, with some positive tech integration reasons as well, this was the choice that seemed right to ensure the experience we want you guys to have rather than one we avoid out of pride.Those are the kinds of choices our team and I make with everything we put into Probly. I may be too much of an optimist but ultimately I feel if we make the best decisions for an end user, there are ways for multiple companies doing something to help users be profitable and smart to win. Kayak sold for $2 billion while the company who built its data technology, ITA, sold for $700 million. I want that world for you, us, and the good companies like Oddsjam who care about helping people in a space that falls short of that goal frequently.

The global probability winner is an Ivory Coast win over Uganda in African World Cup of basketball qualifiers with a 96.4% probability. Even though I'd say that's slightly less esoteric than our occasional Slovakian women's hoops winner I can't find a thumbnail image for, let's go a little more mainstream for this week's top probability.⛹️‍♂️ So we go to NCAA hoops where #11 ranked Tennessee leads the way. a Tennessee win over South Carolina has a 93.9% probability followed by a Houston win at a 92.9% probability, a College of Charleston win at a 92% probability, the Tennessee moneyline (1st half) at a 90.8% probability, and a Youngstown State win at a 89.5% probability. 📺 There's also a national TV FOX game with Indiana and Purdue tonight that I saw advertised during Smackdown. You can pick a Purdue win for the most probable sweat at an 80% probability and the Purdue moneyline (1st half) at a 67.2% probability. 🏈 The XFL is not as glamorous to bet on with the probabilities still fairly narrow due to the lack of information (and lack of betting markets and general lack of talent discrepancy) within the upstart league. But a top five would be led by a Houston Roughnecks win at a 65.1% probability (after the opponent Renegades lucked into a win versus Vegas the previous week). A Vegas Vipers win is #2 at a 62.5% probability followed by a San Antonio Brahmas win at a 62.1% probability, Defenders-Vipers under 35 points at a 51.3% probability, and Renegades-Roughnecks under 40 points at a 51.1% probability.🏀 The NBA is led by the Jazz tonight with a Utah win at a 77.8% probability, then a Utah moneyline (1st half) at a 71% probability, a Raptors win at a 70.3% probability, a Jazz moneyline (1st quarter) at a 65.8% probability, and a Heat win at a 64.7% probability. 🥊 There's a bleh UFC card tonight led by a Tatiana Suarez win at an 85.2% probability, a Joe Solecki win at an 82.9% probability, Gabriella Fernandes & Jasmine Jasudavicius over 2.5 rounds at a 69.2% probability amidst the top five along with some future fights. In the "main event", you have a Nikita Krylov win at a 61.4% probability and the odds favor a quicker finish with under 1.5 rounds at a 59.8% probability.

As always, thanks to those of you who opened this email and got to this part of things! There are good things to come here even with the thorough NFL writeups so keep your eyes peeled. I'm sure I hammered the point home well above but ultimately I really do want to reward your guys' faith with a product that makes it easy for the parents and the people without time who just want to get in good bets and not think about it. We get closer to that every day with things like our Oddsjam deal and I really can't wait until I can share our vision with you.Enjoy your weekends and I'll catch you guys next week! Good luck!