🙈Will Tom Brady Fail The World Once More?

You guys know the drill: It's Saturday so it's time to strap in for a read on the top markets from around the world in this week's Probly Email! Last week was a brutal one for a strong clickbait headline about Tom Brady dominating Kenny Pickett in this email. Ultimately though, that's a helpful reminder about what we do at Probly is (and all every fantasy or betting opportunity is): This is all a game of probabilities.

The top markets can think Tom Brady has an 80% chance to beat the Steelers last week but there remains that 20% likelihood that something goes weird and the Steelers win. In fantasy, targeting that 20% probability when everyone else is tethered to the 80% outcome can be a huge differentiator from the field and be positive expected value. In betting, whichever probability is most advantageous relative to the odds you get at from a legal sportsbook is key. You use the best market data you can find to properly evalute these opportunities and how to approach them relative to these different situations. We'll talk more about these principles as we go along in our journey in the coming weeks/months/years. For now, this is your Probly email for October 22nd, 2022. - @ChrisSpags

• Quick Probly product updates

• Game-by-game preview of the most and least probable bets in NFL Week 7's games (Spags will try desperately to write shorter snippets)

• The most probable bets from college football and other items of interest around the NBA and the world

As I've hinted before in this email, you won't just get updates on the top markets across the world we cull for information. You'll also get updates on when we have a product for you to play with and a candid look from me at the process we go through to get that to you.We are currently working with a top design/UX firm in Brazil, introduced through one of our advisors who teamed up with them to develop the top sportsbook app in Latin America as well as one of the biggest digital media properties there. It'll be a (relatively) quick 5-week sprint for them to create a prototype based upon our current high-powered live data ingestion processes to turn it into the most simple tool imaginable in a way that also provides you the most actionable and low-latency information in the industry.

In the coming weeks, we'll let you into the design process as well as the development so that when we do go live, you will know every bit of the sweat equity that went into what we've brought to you. My hope is that builds trust with you all as well as other potential users of this Probly product that we believe in some much.We're excited to bring you first access to the final product in the next few months and hope you'll enjoy the journey behind the scenes as well. More to come!

I swear I wrote that whole intro about Tom Brady before looking up the numbers for the week. But here we go guys: Tom Brady and the Bucs winning outright at Carolina is in fact the most probable NFL bet of the week at an 84.7% probability. The Bucs leading after the 1st half is the 2nd most probable of the week at a 76.9% probability.

Will they run into the bad side of the coin again like they did versus Pittsburgh? It feels impossible against a Carolina team with a season-low 13.3 point implied total. But it's all a game of probabilities. 🤷🏻‍♂️

Here's everything else in NFL Week 7:

• Atlanta @ Cincinnati - A Cincinnati win is the most probable outcome at a 71.7% probability. A Cincinnati lead after the 1st half and after the 1st quarter aren't far behind at 66.9% and 65.2% probabilities respectively. The Falcons may be forced to pass more than usual, though it's a relatively low 64.1% probability that the teams score over 20 points in the 1st half.

• Indianapolis @ Tennessee - The game scoring under 49.5 points is the most likely outcome at a 69.3% probability. Not far behind is the 68.9% chance the game scores over 35.5 points. The markets seem to favor the game not becoming an outright shootout but Colts +7.5 and Titans +3.5 both have high probabilities at 67.7% and 67.1%. I'd expect a competitive one with some fantasy potential.

• Green Bay @ Washington - Green Bay +3.5 leads the way with a 76.3% probability while the game going under 49.5 points is the second highest probability event at a 71.1% likelihood. Despite the lack of Carson Wentz and perennial backup Taylor Heinecke starting for Washington, it seems like the Commanders may hang in long enough to put the fear of God in our Ayahuasca-infused antihero Aaron Rodgers.

• Tampa Bay @ Carolina - Tampa Bay has lofty win probabilities at the aforementioned 84.7% probability to win the game and 76.9% to lead after the first half. It seems unlikely Carolina can put up a fight with a 72.4% chance the game scores under 47.5 points. Tampa may win ugly but a loss here would be a colossal series of unlikely events paired with last week's shameful L.

• Cleveland @ Baltimore - Cleveland +14.5 leads the way here at a 73.4% probability which, as we've discussed in previous emails, shows there's a high likelihood of the game being within two touchdowns for the majority of the game but some volatility with the 26.6% chance that Baltimore smokes them. For DFS tournaments this weekend, it seems more profitable to play the competitive angle for the game given low ecpected ownership. But be aware that Cleveland can get absolutely rolled.

• NY Giants @ Jacksonville - Jacksonville +3.5 is the game's most likely outcome at 71.2% probability. There's also a 70.8% probability the game goes over 36.5 points followed by a 68.4% probability it goes under 50.5 points. Despite Jacksonville being three-point favorites in most markets, it feels like this data all points to a decent chance the Giants inexplicably win again.

• Detroit @ Dallas - The most probable bet of the game is a Cowboys win at a 71.6% probability, followed by Dallas leads in the 1st half (66.9%) and 1st quarter (65.2%). Against a Detroit team who's bottom of the leagues in every defensive stat ranging from EPA allowed to all the DVOA metrics, there is every expectation of a Dallas offensive explosion led by the returning Dak Prescott.

• NY Jets @ Denver - Russell Wilson is questionable as I write this and it seems the markets represent that tentative situation. Broncos +3 (1st half) is the highest probability event at 66.3%, followed by Broncos +0.5 (1st quarter) and Jets +3.5 (1st half) at 64.4% and 63.5% probabilities respectively. Backup QB Brett Rypien might be an upgrade with how Russ has cooked so far this year but everything points to a field goal bonanza currently.

• Houston @ Las Vegas - Las Vegas +3.5 is the game's most likely outcome at a 79.6% probability, a good sign for fantasy football chalk RB Josh Jacobs. If the Raiders are within 3 points at a minimum, that likely means he had no issues being useful this week either building up a lead, salting a game away, or having Houston put up enough points to justify him staying involved. There's a 39.8% probability the game scores over 49.5 points which is not a high probability event but could easily be a positive expected value shootout to target in DraftKings or FanDuel tournaments.

• Seattle @ LA Chargers - A Chargers win is the most probable event at a 66.8% probability, followed by the usual "dominant game narrative" bets of Chargers ML (1st half) at a 64.6% probability and Chargers ML (1st quarter) at 62%. The markets tell a potential story of Geno and the Seahawks pulling out to an early lead only for the Chargers to edge them out over the course of the game. This game feels a little too obvious of a potential shootout — there's a 28.6% chance it scores over 58.5 points — but there's nothing that pointing to it being a slog.

• Kansas City @ San Francisco - The game scoring over 40.5 points is the most probable event at a 73.6% probability, something that does offer some potential for a defensively minded matchup. If there's confirmation that the newly acquired Christian McCaffrey will play meaningful snaps, these markets could move. But with San Francisco +7.5 at a 71.7% probability and Kansas City +3.5 for the game at a 65.6% probability, the most likely outcome is a one-score game where touchdowns are going to have to be really earned. 

• Pittsburgh @ Miami - Tua is back and it shows with a Miami win one of the week's most probable events at a 74.1% probability. The ensuing markets tell a similar tale of dominance with Miami ML (1st half) and Miami ML (1st quarter) also highly probable at 69.3% and 67.1% respectively. This could be a Sunday Night Football game to target a shootout build despite two teams having a historical defensive reputation that has NOT been well-deserved this year.

• Chicago @ New England - A Patriots win is one of the week's most probable events at a 75.3% probability with a dominance narrative since Patriots ML (1st half) at 71.1% and Patriots ML (1st quarter) at 68.1% is right behind amidst the most probable events. SNF may be fun. MNF may be a dumpster fire of Bill Belichick publicly pantsing Justin Fields. Hard pass for anyone not in the greater Massachusetts area.

This email will go out after some of the more probable college football games — like Ohio State — have already kicked off. As a result, this week's award for most probable bet that isn't a live game goes to...Pindamonhangaba Basquete to win at home against Hawks Basquete Votorantim with a 95.2% probability in their matchup at 5PM Eastern. Maybe this is only cool to me but I love that we have a product that tells me that, yes, this women's Brazilian basketball team with an absolutely absurdly long name has the best chance to win their game tonight out of EVERYTHING THAT WILL OCCUR IN THE WORLD. If they lose? Absolute cone of shame time and I want photographic proof of how they react.

In College Football games that haven't kicked off, a Notre Dame win leads the way with a 93.3% probability followed by an Oregon State win at a 91.8% probability, an Alabama win at a 90.1% probability and Notre Dame's 1st half moneyline at an 89.9% probability. They may have the top markets around the world convinced today but you just know they miss Brian Kelly's fake Southern accent in the locker room.

In the MLB playoffs, the highest probability events are Padres/Phillies scoring over 4.5 runs (82.7% probability), Astros/Yankees over 3.5 runs (80.6% probability), and Astros/Yankees under 10.5 runs (80.5% probability). An almost 20% chance the two league championship games score under 4 and 3 runs respectively. Shocker kids don't love the sport more.

And in our beloved NBA (so glad to have it back in my life), a Bucks win leads the way with an 87.7% probability, a Sixers win is #2 with an 86.9% probability, and a Celtics win is at a 76.4% probability. Expect dominance from the Bucks and Sixers since they also have high probabilities to lead at halftime, 79.8% and 79.4% for each of them.

There goes our weekly romp throughout the world of sports. I hope it adds some value to your life, even if it is just intellectual curiosity like I have for the valiant gals of Pindamonhangaba Basquete. As always, feel free to forward the email to a friend and tell them to get on our list if they want to get better at understanding the world of betting. Hopefully some exciting stuff to come next week so good luck this weekend, all!