🃏Wild Card Weekend: SHOCKING Potential Upsets?

It's a Wild Card Weekend that we will be told is a Super Wild Card Weekend for branding purposes. Six games and, by the end of Monday night, we'll know our last four game weekend of the season as Super Bowl dreams fall by the wayside.You guys know me: I get excited for things like preseason and Week 18, let alone elimination games where it's ALL ON THE LINE. And the groups of games only get smaller from here! So let's cherish this weekend, look forward to the heavyweight title fights to come in the next few, and trust the probabilities process.Upsets may happen (probably not in the Niners or Bills games) but let's have some fun with what feels like it could be a chalk-filled weekend of winners. This is your Probly email for January 14th, 2023! - @ChrisSpags

• 🏈 Game-by-game preview of the most and least probable bets in the NFL Wild Card games

• 👑 The most probable bets from the NBA, UFC, and whatever else seems interesting!

The Wild Card round of the playoffs is often treated as a haven of upsets but we have a few VERY clear cut favorites this weekend. For a league filled with parity, there may be a lot of heavy favorites advancing this week if we're to believe the top markets around the world we comb for Probly's data.This week's top-five indicates some very obvious heavy favorites. A Bills win leads the week with a lofty 85.6% probability followed by a Niners win at an 80% probability. Then you'll get some Bills dominance narrative with the Bills moneyline (1st half) at a 79.8% probability, a Bengals win against a Lamar Jackson-less Ravens at a 77.8% probability, and one more pro-Bills line with a 74.9% probability on the Bills moneyline (1st quarter). If you were in that hypothetical life-risking scenario where some kidnapped DEMANDS you make a three-game parlay to save yourself, the Bills, Niners, and Bengals would be those three teams. But how does the rest of the Wild Card board look? Let's find out:

• Seattle @ San Francisco - Niners dominance narrative is the key thing here. In the top five most probable events, we have that Niners win at a 79.9% probability, Niners moneyline (1st half) at a 73.8% probability, and Niners moneyline (1st quarter) at a 68.7% probability. It is quite literally all pro-Niners lines. Seattle has had some fairy dust carrying them at points this season but the playoffs are where the wheat separates from the chafe. I don't see the Niners losing this one.

• LA Chargers @ Jacksonville - The Chargers have probably gotten a little bit too much love as a Super Bowl contender given that this game feels a lot like a coin toss. Despite that, the top markets do seem favor a shootout Chargers win. The most probable bet is the game over 40.5 points at a 69.7% probability followed by Jaguars +7.5 at a 69.5% probability. Unlike a +3.5 line which indicates hedging against a weak favorite, this line means there's a likelihood of a one-score game but some chance the Jags cannot stay in this one. You also have the game scoring under 53.5 points at a 68.8% probability, a high bar for an alternate spread (and, as I always say, a sign there's a 31.2% chance this game could go gangbusters). The "Chargers blow this one" line is in the top five with Chargers +3.5 at a 66.9% probability. If I had to guess based on these lines, it's most likely a one-score game with the Jags very live to steal this one even if the Chargers overcome their coach breaking one of their star WR's backs in a game that didn't matter.

• Miami @ Buffalo - Hopefullly we can save some word count on this one. It's Bills win at an 85.6% probability, one of the highest we've had all year, followed by Bills moneyline (1st half) at a 79.8% probability, Bills -3.5 at a 76.7% probability, and the Bills moneyline (1st quarter) at a 74.9% probability. The Bills' "unlucky" out come is them winning by less than a field goal. Don't get cute here.

• NY Giants @ Minnesota - This game has gained steam as a potential Giants upset spot with advanced analytics finding Minnesota wildly overrated. But the highest probability is over 37.5 points at a 75.5% probability followed by the "Minnesota may blow this" Vikings +3.5 at a 70.1% probability. You also get Giants +7.5 as the third most probable bet at a 68.3% outcome. This all screams "one score game where the Giants can win by a field goal." While the more likely outcome is still a Vikings win, there's enough signs here that the Giants can, in fact, steal this game and send them packing.

• Baltimore @ Cincinnati - Lamar Jackson is out, backup Tyler Huntley is a game-time decision, and this could be ugly if they're forced to go with inaccurate third-stringer Anthony Brown again. Interestingly when you account for alternate spreads, the most likely outcome is Bengals +3.5 at an 84.3% probability, a line which is surprising to see given that it's usually a "cover your ass in case the team loses" line. You don't usually see that line paired with our 2nd most probable of a Bengals win at a 77.3% probability. You also have under 50.5 points at a 75.2% probability and a Bengals moneyline (1st half) at a 72.4% probability. I'm a big believer in the Bengals' Super Bowl hopes as well as hints of revenge after them being somewhat screwed by the Week 17 cancellation. But this all makes it seem like they may be the most live to potentially blow their game out of all the big favorites.

• Dallas @ Tampa Bay - Boomers and casuals LOVE the Bucs on Monday Night Football, which has to give you pause right away. Top markets are in line with the more correct world views. The most probable bet is over 36.5 points at a 74.1% probability followed by Bucs +7.5 at a 69.9% probability and then our "Cowboys may blow this" line of Cowboys +3.5 at a 67.6% probability. This all seems to indicate that, yes, Dallas is likely to win and it would be a feat for the Bucs to steal this one. I strongly believe Tom Brady will get gobbled up by the pressure the Cowboys bring and will go on to spend time with his youthful influencer girlfriend. But the markets give some pause that the horseshoe may be up his derriere for one more run, at least to the divisional round.

The true most probable odds for the week go to an Elfic Fribourg women's hoops win at a 96% probability on the road at BC Alte Kanti Aarau. But you think I can get an image of something that sounds like a Star Wars expanded universe character? No chance. Let's focus on the main sports.Memphis leads the NBA with a Grizzlies win at a 73.5% probability, then a Celtics win at a 73% probability, a Raptors win at a 69.1% probability, and some Grizzlies/Celtics dominance narrative with Grizzlies moneyline (1st half) at a 67% probability and Celtics moneyline (1st half) also at a decimal-lower 67% probability.Also I had this in last week's email but this mediocre UFC card is tonight and some lines moved: an Umar Nurmagomedov win now leads the way at an 85.8% probability while a Mateusz Rebecki win has also moved up to an 85.4% probability, then you get a Daniel Argueta win at an 80.3% probability. With names like that, Dana White would have to slap you in the face to make you not want to watch this card I'm sure.

In the coming weeks, we'll hopefully be able to add NHL, Golf, and NASCAR to the fray. Stay tuned.

Another email in the books and holy cow is it easier writing this email when all the fully bad NFL teams are eliminated. I hope you guys have a profitable and enjoyable weekend of football. The development process does go on at a solid pace so we're still on pace to get you guys access in some capacity to our Probly beta right in time for the Super Bowl.Have a great weekend and I'll see you guys next week for the Divisional Round! Good luck!