🏈 Wild Card Weekend Is Here...What Are The Good Bets?

It’s been a solid week here at Probly with our highest traffic day yet and us continuing to bang our heads against the wall of our App Store submission…but more on that at the end of the email.

I will highlight one of our first signups here though to get to the crux of our sales pitch for the week:

Our guy Jason in the tweet above is one of the first viewers/listeners we had for my and Pete Overzet’s fantasy football show Splash Play and he was kind enough to be our first signup for a yearly membership too. So it’s been really cool to see him hitting all sorts of parlays, straight bets, live bets, and more over the course of weeks to the point that he’s made at least 5x the yearly cost (that I’m aware of). But it’s also a proof of concept of how easy this can be with our data, which is the main reason I include it here for all of you.

Use promo code FIRST for 50% off at Probly.com/subscribe. That means you can get one month of pre-game data for $9.99/month or live in-game data for $24.99/month, and it gets EVEN CHEAPER if you buy a year. Using Probly will help you win more, start to internalize what makes for a “good bet”, and change the game for you. If you haven’t taken the leap yet, give it a shot.

We’ve got Wild Card weekend and only six games make this email way shorter for me to make and you to read, hooray! Let’s get into it all with your Probly Email for January 12th, 2024! - @ChrisSpags

• 🔮 Predicting the future with the Most Probable events and +EV bets of of NFL Wild Card Weekend

• 🔓 Probly Product Updates: The App Store Submission Process Is Maddening

There’s one big favorite — though their line has moved a little further away from them during the week.

A Bills win is the most probable win of the week with an 80% probability they beat the likely overmatched Steelers at home. The Bills had an unlikely ascendance to the #2 seed with Jacksonville’s implosion last week so there would be tremendous irony with them having one of the potentially easiest routes to the Super Bowl they’ve had, at least until they’d likely face Baltimore in the AFC title game.

Now let’s get into the game-by-game breakdown of Most Probable events along with any additional +EV bets we see along the way. You can also look at all this info for yourself at Probly.com/search, just filter by NFL and you’ll see each game and its currently available markets!

• Cleveland (-2) at Houston (44 O/U) — Top five most probable: Andrew Beck under 0.5 TDs at a 91% probability, Robert Woods under 0.5 TDs at an 83% probability, Kareem Hunt under 1.5 receptions at a 64% probability (and a 1.4 PROBLY Score at -174 odds), Texans +3.5 at a 60% probability, and Texans +3 (1st half) at a 60% probability.
  
  What this means: Houston likely has the best shot to steal this one in a shootout so it’s worth noting there is an Under 46.5 at a 58% probability so that isn’t far off the top five. We’ve seen Joe Flacco bomb all over this Houston defense a few weeks ago in a CJ Stroud-less matchup and that could be the case again. We have two lines hedging against the market’s Texans -2 line so it does seem like there is some additional favor for Cleveland overall, but not a preponderance.

• Miami (+4.5) at Kansas City (44 O/U) — Top five most probable: Cedrick Wilson under 0.5 TDs at an 86% probability, Under 24.5 (1st half) at a 65% probability, Under 24 (1st half) at a 64% probability, Under 46.5 at a 61% probability, and Jaylen Waddle over 3.5 receptions at a 60% probability.
  
  What this means: It seems like we can expect a somewhat slow start but we do see that Under 46.5 high-bar over/under here amongst the top-five. In my estimation, much like Houston, they need to win with more production than less.
  
  That said — I’ve been shocked how down best ball and DFS markets are on Miami and nothing makes me feel like the winningest sports betting markets here are down on Miami. The +4.5 isn’t great but we’re not seeing Chiefs -6 type hedges. I personally want to see Miami steal this one and also believe that’s the most advantageous angle in those fantasy formats. But there’s seemingly no major lean for either side according to this data.

• Pittsburgh (+9.5) at Buffalo (34 O/U) — Top five most probable: Leonard Fournette under 0.5 TDs at an 84% probability, Najee Harris under 0.5 TDs at a 73% probability, George Pickens under 3.5 receptions at a 61% probability, Under 38.5 at a 60% probability, and Under 18.5 (1st half) at a 59% probability.
  
  What this means: Note: Buffalo moneyline bets seemingly got pulled as a wrote this up but there’d likely be a moneyline an first-half moneyline in here otherwise. The Fournette bet is interesting because the “yes” on his anytime TD was actually the most +EV bet of Wild Card Weekend when I recorded the Best Bets video earlier. But besides that, it mostly seems ugly with winds expected in the 20-30 MPH range and some crippling cold with it.
  
  George Pickens thrives with contested catches downfield and there will likely not be as many to go around with that weather. Despite that, we do have a relatively high-bar over/under with that Under 38.5 line. Maybe there’s slightly more scoring than expected here but it’s hard to expect a shootout with a limp Pittsburgh offense and Buffalo running aggressively since they fired their OC.

• Green Bay (+7) at Dallas (51 O/U) — Top five most probable: Cowboys win at a 74% probability, Cowboys moneyline (1st quarter) at a 66% probability, Over 22.5 (1st half) at a 62% probability, Over 47.5 at a 61% probability, and Over 48 at a 59% probability.
  
  What this means: There’s some Cowboys dominance narrative here (I assume the Dallas first half moneyline was pulled as of writing but it should settle between 1st quarter and full-game). The Packers have run hot but with a really soft defense and Dallas has been bombing on teams for almost the entire back half of the season.
  
  We do see some hedges on the market 51-point over/under but not enough to really spoke me off since if the game goes over 47.5, it’d still likely be one of the highest scoring games of the weekend. A lot of sharp people have vouched for Jordan Love’s growth on film — something that has steadily made me feel better about loving him preseason only to see that slow start — but it’s hard to imagine Dallas blowing this one.

• LA Rams (+3) at Detroit (52 O/U) — Top five most probable: Donovan Peoples-Jones under 0.5 TDs at an 87% probability, Rams +5.5 at a 61% probability, Lions +1 at a 60% probability, Rams +5 at a 60% probability, and Lions win at a 59% probability.
  
  What this means: We’ve got hedges on both sides here for the Rams losing by more than 3 as well as the Lions +1. That seems a bit like these markets throwing their hands up, which definitely gives me some concern as a Lions backer. The Rams have outperformed a lot of expectations this year and, for me personally, I have wanted to write them off numerous times and they keep persevering. I’m not ready to back off my Rams fade yet but…it’s a concern.
  
  The most important thing to note here is outside the top five: Over 49.5 comes with a 57% probability, a slight hedge on the market’s 52-point line. Much like the Green Bay/Dallas game, the game can still be plentiful with scoring even at that lower line. But it is still a concern to see that hedge at all.

• Philadelphia (-3) at Tampa Bay (43.5 O/U) — Top five most probable: D’Andre Swift under 0.5 TDs at a 66% probability, Eagles +2.5 (1st half) at a 62% probability, Eagles +1.5 at a 62% probability, Bucs +5 at a 60% probability, and Over 40.5 at a 60% probability.
  
  What this means: Another game with hedges on both sides as well as a slight hedge favoring lower scoring than the market line of 43.5 points. Philly is so banged up and seems likely to be without AJ Brown while Jalen Hurts has also been unable to practice this week with an injured finger. That said: There is value given that this was a presumptive Super Bowl favorite just six or so weeks ago.
  
  Maybe the Bucs put the Eagles out of their misery in a year that’s quickly become cursed. But I tend to think I’d rather favor the Eagles — at least as long as they have Jalen Hurts (which may not be a given with how this line has moved further and further toward the Bucs).

Apologies to the fans of other sports but that NFL writeup likely takes up MORE than enough space for this email. The good news? If you want your favorite sports’ best bets, you can now go grab them for yourself whenever you please at Probly.com! Here’s the best way to use it:

1️⃣ Scroll through all of our available markets
2️⃣ Click the Probability number (or swipe right) to see what the markets are saying is the “true probability” of a bet to win as well as what the current best available odds are. If you’re a paid member, simply sort by Most Profitable to filter out all PROBLY Scores under zero.
3️⃣ If you can find odds aligned with the best odds out there and it has a positive PROBLY Score (especially over a 2.0), take the bet! Taking +EV bets will win you more money than it loses you! If not, you can still take the bet but be careful because negative PROBLY Score bets over time can fully deplete your bankroll.

The good news from last week is that we’re back getting normal amounts of views on TikTok as I’ve pivoted the approach to an image-based “Top 5 bets” video (this one went 4-1!) with an AI-enhanced version of my voice that makes me sound like a professional woman. It’s less personality than I’d like to have for content but I strongly believe I have to try things that are outside of my comfort zone to see if they work or don’t — that’s the point of A/B testing — and it’s WAY shorter than any video I’d do, which may be the primary reason it’s getting views.

The one lesson I’ve learned in this process that actually may have some merit for you guys if you are someone creating content on TikTok: It’s been roughly 3-4x difference in video performance so far if I put trending hashtags on the text of the video itself, albeit dragged off-screen. It’s one of those growth hacks I had seen “TikTok experts” suggest and it’s the one difference between us being in the TikTok “200 view jail” for videos versus others that got exponentially more.

Besides that, the App Store submission, some other various meetings and a big personal situation have occupied us this week. Our CTO and my best friend Edgar — who’s had one of those cursed years between a tree falling on his house (forcing him to have to be in a hotel for 3 months) and a laptop repair outage that lasted about three weeks at a key point for us at end of year — had to drive from Atlanta to New York with his dog to be with his mother as she was in a dire medical spot. She’s doing better now but was, at one point, intubated and in an induced coma before recovering but needing to remain in the hospital under supervision.

It’s a tough one for us because A) We’ve been best friends since high school so I know his Mom as well as how important she is to him as an only child-single Mom duo and B) This obviously puts a bit of a blocker on work for the second time in the last month, which is tough given how much we have to do in general and with this App Store submission. The human parts matter the most but, as someone running a precocious business, both parts are a challenge.

We had hope that we’d get approved on our latest submission but, as a result of having to re-submit a new build to address previous issues we got pushed back, it then resulted in an ENTIRELY new review which made even more feedback items, including us needing to re-work some things for the iPad version of the app (which we don’t even want to have but you HAVE to submit as part of any App Store submission).

It’s a pain in the ass because the App Store reviewers seemingly vary submission to submission and sometime they just miss something and submit it as a reason to decline. One reviewer may also accept a fix while another will kick that same fix back — the iPad screenshots are one case where one reviewer said our modification was okay then the most recent one called us out for using a stretched version of our iPhone screenshots for it.

As a result, we are now reworking the iPad layout to try to make sense of that for new screenshots while also addressing items related to the in-app purchase thing, some camera permissions item that is no longer part of the core product, and some “Coming Soon” areas on the app that will have to be removed. We are still hopeful this will be live sooner than not — discovery on the App Store is a huge focus since just being on there can create more revenue than me doing 1000 of these emails or videos — but it has been a grind.

Besides our highest trafficked day yet, the other good news is I was booked to be on the Betting Startups podcast, which will record next week but come out some time in February. I’ll have more details to come there but it’s an important stop with what we hope to accomplish in terms of fundraising — and also somewhat validating to be asked to come on. I’m excited for it and would hope that I shine more in stuff like this given how content native I am compared to some other founders out there (of course, having said that, watch me embarrass myself severely somehow).

We’re pushing, we’re racking up minor successes. We just need some of these minor successes to result in tangible revenue sooner than later.

If you guys encounter any issues not covered here or want to provide feedback, you can email me [email protected].

Whew there is no joy greater for a simple startup founder who writes up weekly emails about football games than going from EVERY NFL team playing to a very reasonable six-game slate. I’ll miss the surplus of football though; hope you guys are mentally preparing for more NBA and MLB around here.

As always, thanks to all of you who read all the way down here. Use promo code FIRST to get 50% off at Probly.com/subscribe to be like our guy Jason and start building stacks with regular betting in your life. I’ll be back next week with more, good luck!