🏈 Which Week 8 Games Look BEST In Betting Markets?

Welcome to another journey through the world of Probly.com! As we march into the most ghoulish season of them all with us on the precipice of Halloween, the only thing that’s really scary is not getting the finest probability and sportsbook data in your life.

But you guys know the deal, we’ve got no time to waste here with email intro preambles! Let’s get started with your Probly Email for October 27th, 2023! - @ChrisSpags

• 🔓 Probly Product Updates: Micro Improvements Daily

• 🔮 Predicting the future with the Most Probable events of NFL Week 8

We had another good week in the world of Probly so let’s catch up on the most crucial updates:

-We have now added “Last Updated” timestamps anywhere you see a Probly probability on the app and click it to open up the modal with more data. What this will tell you is when our data was most recently updated (either because our True Probability moved or when better sportsbook odds presented themselves for the bet). It will hopefully give you guys additional confidence in timeliness of what you’re seeing as well as to help us ensure that we never have anything stale on the front end of our product.
-We’ve also, in parallel, made a series of back end improvements that should tighten up our latency even further as well as ensure less duplicate bets. We ran into an issue with our hockey puck line bets’ calculations that we need to fix so those have been pulled from the app temporarily (player props and other hockey bets are still good to go) but, when we fix that, it should allow us to add a few additional bet types in across other sports as well.
-We fixed the broken image issues on league filtering as well as the ability for users to update their @ username on Probly (you do have to save a phone number to your profile to do that, though).
-We continue to work with our AWS reps as well as potential external partners to try to optimize futher for speed and cost. This takes up more time than it should but it’s a key part of our overall efforts right now to make this as optimized in both facets as humanly possible (which may allow us to update with even more frequency). These kind of optimizations are being tweaked almost daily.

There are some less sexy things we’re working on as well, like proper Open Graph meta data (so a link to Probly will look prettier when texted or posted on a social media site) for both our primary URL as well as our Share pages. We also are working on search improvements as well as a change to our Giphy API that will give us more player-specific GIFs for props in particular. Neither of those will matter too much to you guys but it’s just the overall process to give everything the sheen it needs.

I’m on the investor grind (as well as the meeting with anyone friendly grind) in our quest to somehow find a round of funding in the worst funding ecosystem ever but we remain laser focused on tightening up every bolt we can to make for the best possible experience for you guys. I’m optimistic we will FINALLY have the Most Profitable sorting and our Live filtering ready to go by the time our next email rolls around — which would mean the rollout of our paid subscriptions as well as additional content from me — so stay tuned.

If you guys encounter any issues not covered here or want to provide feedback, you can email me [email protected].

NFL Week 8 is here and this time, I’ve got to be honest: I kind of wonder if this is live for an upset.

But my opinion doens’t matter because this week’s Most Likely winner is a Dolphins win that leads them all with a 79% probability. There are a couple of other huge favorites that are just behind — Baltimore at Arizona and the Chargers versus Chicago — but the Dolphins edge it out against a New England team that just had a stunning upset of a similarly overpowered Bills who was also last week’s top favorite. Does that matter this week? Maybe not!

Let’s go game by game with EVERY TEAM in action and mix in some +EV bets via our PROBLY Score where applicable in a week with NOT A SINGLE OVER/UNDER OVER 50. It is dark times for a Splash Play lover. Here’s your NFL Week 8 Most Probable:

• Minnesota (-1.5) at Green Bay (41.5 O/U) — Top five most probable: KJ Osoborn under 0.5 TDs at a 73% probability, Jordan Love over 0.5 INTs at a 61% probability, Jordan Love under 1.5 passing TDs at a 60% probability, KJ Osborn under 41.5 receiving yards at a 55% probability, and Vikings +2.5 at a 55% probability.
  
  What this means: That Vikings +2.5 among the most probable does seem like a bit of a hedge against Minnesota as a favorite, basically saying that they are nearly as likely to lose by an errant field goal. The biggest takeaway seems to be the expectation of another bad Jordan Love game after he blew the most hospitable matchup possible for him (and any team) the last time he played versus Denver. I wouldn’t expect a shootout or anything given the lack of high-bar alternate over/unders but it does seem like a competitive, perhaps sloppy game is in tow.

• New England (+9.5) at Miami (47 O/U) — Top five most probable: Dolphins win at a 79% probability, Mac Jones under 1.5 passing TDs at a 65% probability, Under 3.5 field goals at a 60% probability, Mac Jones over 0.5 INTs at a 57% probability, and Over 22 (1st half) at a 56% probability.
  
  What this means: It does seem like there should be additional confidence in a Dolphins win even though I do think New England’s defense makes them feisty. The biggest issue seems to be Mac Jones himself; perhaps my lean and the market’s lean can come together as this being an underpowered game relative to the Dolphins’ usual explosive offense and perhaps one where a defensive score or two helps them lock down the win? Tyreek Hill projects to be the highest owned play on DraftKings this week and I’d have some concern about that despite the heavy favorite status.

• Jacksonville (-2.5) at Pittsburgh (41 O/U) — Top five most probable: Over 17.5 (1st half) at a 56% probability, Kenny Pickett under 217.5 passing yards at a 55% probability (and a 1.1 PROBLY Score at -117 odds), Trevor Lawrence under 232.5 passing yards at a 55% probability, Diontae Johnson under 51.5 receiving yards at a 55% probability (and a 2 PROBLY Score at -115 odds), and Over 7 (1st quarter) at a 54% probability.
  
  What this means: It’s odd to see this many indoctrinations that push towards a low scoring game while still seeing favorable overs for scoring in the 1st half and 1st quarter. That said, these player unders are really coming up heavy with others not far outside the top five (and that Pickett line moved down a yard twice over the last hour as I write this). The one thing noticeably absent is the run games so maybe this is one with a little more Travis Etienne and (barf) Najee Harris involvement? It doesn’t seem like a game to stack up based on market data.

• Atlanta (-2.5) at Tennessee (35 O/U) — Top five most probable: Desmond Ridder under 1.5 passing TDs at a 65% probability, Derrick Henry under 0.5 TDs at a 62% probability, Drake London under 4.5 receptions at a 60% probability, Over 32.5 at a 59% probability, and Bijan Robinson under 13.5 longest reception at a 58% probability (and a 3.8 PROBLY Score at -125 odds).
  
  What this means: This looks HIDEOUS. We talk a lot about the “high bar” over/unders, which are basically market hedges against a game scoring a lot more than the market over/under. In this case, we see the opposite with a “low bar” over/under that says this game may score even less than the hideous 35 point market over/under. With Will Levis starting and an Atlanta offense that is as half-assed as can be, it seems unwise to expect anything than the ugliness you’d think when you see these two teams playing.

• NY Jets (-3) at NY Giants (36.5 O/U) — Top five most probable: Tyler Conklin under 0.5 TDs at an 84% probability, Darren Waller under 0.5 TDs at a 79% probability, Garrett Wilson under 0.5 TDs at a 69% probability, Under 20 (1st half) at a 59% probability, Garrett Wilson over 4.5 receptions at a 59% probability.
  
  What this means: Another yucky one where some of the top options are expected not to score a touchdown. Notable by their absence are the running backs, Breece Hall and Saquon Barkley because they have a 43% chance of a TD and a 46% chance of a TD respectively. I’d be okay with either of those guys fantasy wise but it seems like a fool’s errand to expect meaningful pass game production from either side.

• LA Rams (+6.5) at Dallas (45.5 O/U) — Top five most probable: Cowboys win at a 71% probability, Cowboys moneyline (1st half) at a 66% probability, Tutu Atwell over 1.5 receptions at a 61% probability, Matthew Stafford over 0.5 INTs at a 61% probability, and Over 43.5 at a 57% probability.
  
  What this means: At least there’s a decent expectation for floor scoring in this game with that Over 43.5 alternate line. The Cowboys D has been greatly weakned by the loss of some of their guys like Diggs and Vander Esch and the Rams have shown they can put up points in adverse spots so I would have somewhat expected at least one high bar over/under here; the closest is our 6th most probable bet, Under 47.5 at a 56% probability. That’s closer to a shootout than anything we’ve discussed up to this point.

• Houston (-3.5) at Carolina (43.5 O/U) — Top five most probable: Rasheem Blackshear under 0.5 TDs at an 89% probability, Bryce Young under 0.5 TDs (rushing/receiving) at an 88% probability, Hayden Hurst under 3.5 receptions at a 61% probability, Over 18.5 (1st half) at a 61% probability, and Texans moneyline (1st half) at a 60% probability.  
  
  What this means: Nothing here says to expect more scoring, though I do think the co-sign on an early Texans lead could inherently mean good things for Dameon Pierce, who is in a very good matchup on paper versus a weak Carolina run defense. This game feels like it has faint shootout potential but the markets don’t really offer that up besides the lack of key players having high probability unders on touchdowns.

• Philadelphia (-7) at Washington (43 O/U) — Top five most probable: Eagles win at a 72% probability, Terry McLaurin under 0.5 TDs at a 72% probability, Eagles moneyline (1st half) at a 66% probability, Eagles moneyline (1st quarter) at a 63% probability, and Sam Howell under 1.5 passing TDs at a 62% probability.
  
  What this means: Our first dominance narrative of the day comes for the Eagles against a Washington team that is quietly giving up many ceiling games to every QB they face. I like this spot a lot for Jalen Hurts and the pass game but, with these markets, there is some risk that the Commanders do enough on their end to keep production going late in the game. They find ways to hang in frequently with their high pass rate over expectation but it’s hard to imagine anything other than Eagles dominance here, which will hopefully cheer up my son Luka’s daycare after they moped around following the Phillies’ ALCS unceremonial ejection.

• New Orleans (-1) at Indianapolis (43 O/U) — Top five most probable: Gardner Minshew under 0.5 TDs (rush/rec) at an 87% probability, Alec Pierce under 2.5 receptions at a 63% probability, Under 46 at a 59% probability, Gardner Minshew under 0.5 INTs at a 58% probability, and Under 45.5 at a 57% probability.
  
  What this means: This is one of few games with alternate totals higher than the market over/under which is maybe a bit of a surprise. But we did just see Indianapolis combine for over 70 against a staunch Browns defense so maybe this game can get going? I’m definitely more intrigued by scoring potential in this game after seeing this data. Maybe Chris Olave goes fast somewhere than the highways of New Orleans as he moves to the turf of the Colts but I’d target this game for upside on DraftKings even if you don’t have a ton of faith in individual guys for a season-long league.

• Cleveland (+3.5) at Seattle (37.5 O/U) — Top five most probable: Will Dissly under 0.5 TDs at an 89% probability, Donovan Peoples-Jones under 0.5 TDs at an 83% probability, Kareem Hunt under 0.5 TDs at a 66% probability, Seahawks win at a 64% probability, and Under 21.5 (1st half) at a 64% probability.
  
  What this means: I’m shocked to see the Seahawks win that highly against this defense, particularly with Tyler Lockett and Kenneth Walker trending towards not playing. Maybe it speaks to the regression Cleveland is due with how they’ve played sans Deshaun Watson the last few weeks or this defense, which has been a world beater on the year. Still nothing to love in terms of a very high scoring game environment, especially after the Browns were annihilated by the Colts on offense last week, but that could be a sign of some vulnerabilities to come for Cleveland’s D.

• Cincinnati (+4) at San Francisco (44 O/U) — Top five most probable: Niners win at a 65% probability, Niners moneyline (1st quarter) at a 63% probability, Niners moneyline (1st half) at a 62% probability, Over 19.5 (1st half) at a 62% probability, and Tee Higgins over 3.5 receptions at a 60% probability.
  
  What this means: Niners dominance narrative is in play here, albeit not with the highest probabilities in the world. Any positive Tee Higgins line is a good sign for him with how he’s started the year, though it is likely bad news for JaMarr Chase’s upside given how he’s excelled while Tee falters. Coming off of a bye against a Niners D (and offense) that is quietly reeling, the Bengals seem primed to keep this one compeitive but perhaps not able to ever really wrest control away from San Francisco.

• Baltimore (-9.5) at Arizona (45 O/U) — Top five most probable: Isaiah Likely under 0.5 TDS at an 89% probability, Damien Williams under 0.5 TDs at an 85% probability, Ravens win at a 79% probability, Under 24.5 (1st half) at a 61% probability, Matt Prater over 5.5 kicking points at a 56% probability (and a 3.2 PROBLY Score at -119 odds).
  
  What this means: I’m surprised to not see a Ravens dominance narrative here but it’s possible that may be due to the lines moving as I write this. One line that really stands out is a 51% probability on Mark Andrews over 20.5 longest reception which could be a sign of a big day to come for the surging tight end against an iffy defense. Based on these markets, I expect the Ravens to roll as any Cardinals’ offensive success ends in a Prater field goal. How much they roll relative to a DFS portfolio? We shall see.

• Kansas City (-7.5) at Denver (47 O/U) — Top five most probable: Jerick McKinnon under 0.5 TDs at an 81% probability, Russell Wilson under 1.5 passing TDs at a 69% probability, Chiefs moneyline (1st half) at a 67% probability, Patrick Mahomes under 2.5 passing TDs at a 64% probability, and Chiefs moneyline (1st quarter) at a 63% probability.
  
  What this means: The Chiefs’ moneyline for the game was pulled as I write this but I’d project it to be around 75%ish, meaning you certainly can consider this a dominance narrative. The Chiefs struggled to some degree the last time they played this really weak Denver defense and I don’t expect to see that again, though the under on 2.5 TDs for Mahomes does maybe provide some pause. That could be a reflection more so on additional work for Isiah Pacheco, who has a 52% probability on Over 15.5 receiving yards as well. No reason to expect anything besides a Chiefs win, though the public’s expectation it will come entirely through Mahomes and Kelce means there is some potential to get different in fantasy.

• Chicago (+8) at LA Chargers (46.5 O/U) — Top five most probable: Tyler Scott under 0.5 TDs at an 83% probability, Chargers win at a 78% probability, Joshua Kelley under 0.5 TDs at a 76% probability, Roschon Johnson under 0.5 TDs at a 75% probability, and Chargers moneyline (1sth alf) at a 71% probability.
  
  What this means: The expectation is certainly another Chargers win at home with Justin Fields expected out again. Though it is worth noting Tyson Bagent over 0.5 passing TDs is at a 69% probability, meaning maybe they can get enough production to at least keep this respectable. Roschon Johnson’s TD prop makes me think we safely see D’Onta Foreman stay ahead of him in this fragile, Khalil Herbert-less backfield. There’s also a 57% probability of Tyson Bagent over 0.5 INTs so Chargers D should be in play here too.

• Las Vegas (+8) at Detroit (46 O/U) — Top five most probable: Lions win at a 77% probability, Lions moneyline (1st quarter) at a 68% probability, Jared Goff over 1.5 passing TDs at a 64% probability, Jared Goff under 0.5 INTs at a 59% probability, and Over 44.5 at a 57% probability (and a 2.3 PROBLY Score at -125 odds).
  
  What this means: All this data seems like a situation where the Lions cruise with a good game for Jared Goff driving the success. It seems safe to expect some production, at least from the Detroit side, with an outside chance that the Raiders get something going as well — but not enough to steal a win.

Apologies to the fans of other sports but that NFL writeup likely takes up MORE than enough space for this email. The good news? If you want your favorite sports’ best bets, you can now go grab them for yourself whenever you please at Probly.com! Here’s the best way to use it:

1️⃣ Scroll through all of our available markets
2️⃣ Click the Probability number (or swipe right) to see what the markets are saying is the “true probability” of a bet to win as well as what the current best available odds are
3️⃣ If you can find odds aligned with the best odds out there and it has a positive PROBLY Score, take the bet! Taking +EV bets will win you more money than it loses you! If not, you can still take the bet but be careful because negative PROBLY Score bets over time can fully deplete your bankroll.

There we go guys, another one in the books. It’s always fun to look through all this data and try to infer what it can mean for DFS play as well as the overall game outcomes so I do hope it adds some value to your process.

Check out the ongoing improvements at Probly.com and let me know if you have any feedback by replying directly to this email. Feel free to tell a friend or 10,000 about Probly and I’ll see you guys next week! Good luck!