🐐Tom Brady WILL DOMINATE Tiny-Handed Kenny Pickett

The most profitable sportsbook markets' data is in and we've got some findings for you for NFL Week 6. Will Buffalo-Kansas City live up to the hype? Is Tampa Bay the elimination pool pick for the week despite a road game against the feisty yet small handed Kenny Pickett? It's our first week of byes in the NFL so market data can be helpful to pick through the best of what's left.There's not a lot to update you guys on yet with Probly development business; we're now waiting for deliverables from our UX agency in Brazil, a team we were referred to who will hopefully give us some international perspective for what we build as a user experience on top of our world-class data feeds. It is in no way correlated with me having one of my favorite Brazilian steakhouse meals ever while back in NYC last weekend (Churrascaria Plataforma in Midtown West is your high probability meat-on-sword provider of choice) but there's a lot of positive vibes for our Brazilian friends right now. Things are moving, including medium rare meats through my digestive system.So let's waste no time and get into the details in your Probly email for 10/15. - @ChrisSpags

• Game-by-game preview of the most and least probable bets in all of NFL Week 6's games

• A quick look around the rest of the sports world this weekend

This is one of those weeks where there are some clearly defined favorites on top of the board according to the top international markets we comb for data for Probly. Aspiring pickleball czar Tom Brady is tops among them.The Bucs should be the pick in your elimination pools or for low-friction sportsbook bonuses with a 78.5% probability to win this week at Pittsburgh.

Not far behind are similar propositions with the Rams winning against former XFL god PJ Walker and the Panthers, a slightly lower 78.4% probability. The Packers round out the week's most likely winners with a 74.9% probability to win against the Jets.

Pair these three games together as the basis for a parlay with a lower probability outcome you love. Invest in these teams as cores for your daily fantasy lineups. As we see week after week — these teams are incredibly likely to win. Covering a point spread? Your mileage will always vary.Here's the rest of NFL Week 6:

• Jacksonville @ Indianapolis — Indianapolis +3 (1st half) is the most probable bet on the board with 67% probability with them +0.5 (1st half) not far behind at 64.3%. There's a 36.1% probability that the game scores under 6.5 points in the first quarter while Jacksonville +5 in the game is one of the most likely bets at a 61.5% probability. This reads like a low scoring effort that the Colts dictate the pace of, even if they don't pull out a win at the end.

• NY Jets @ Green Bay — As mentioned above, a Green Bay win is the most likely bet in the game with a 74.5% probability. The rest of the most probable bets center around Green Bay controlling throughout, a 69.4% probability they lead at halftime and a 67% probability they lead after the first quarter. Perhaps the lethargic Packers' pass game cements an early lead and they avoid looking back despite the young Jets' spunky ability to stay in games (and steal more wins than expected) so far this year.

• Minnesota @ Miami — Miami +10.5 is the game's most likely outcome, a 73.1% probability on that alternate spread. Minnesota +3.5 isn't far behind at a 71.2 probability. There's also a high likelihood of 69.9% that the game goes under 52.5 points — which means a not insane 30.1% probability that the game scores more than 52.5 points. I'd play the latter outcome for fantasy and hope Justin Jefferson explodes while Skylar Thompson pulls his weight filling in as Dolphins QB.

• San Francisco @ Atlanta — Atlanta +14.5 is the game's highest probability outcome at a 75.9% likelihood, a pretty big window for a 49ers win. A San Francisco win has a 65.6% probability overall. The leading over/under probability is that the game scores over 35.5 points, a 75% probability. That means a quarter of the time this game is a hideous disaster, enough to scare me off of falling off the Jimmy Garoppolo cliff this week in fantasy at a high volume despite a tremendously easy matchup on paper.

• Cincinnati @ New Orleans — All of the most probable events in the game center around some permutations of the Bengals staying within 3 points; Cincinnati +3 (1st half) leads the way with a 67.3% probability while Cincinnati +0.5 (1st quarter) and Cincinnati +2.5 (1st half) are right there at 63.7% and 62.3% probabilities. The alternate spreads' differential increases with more scoring so, despite huge talent on both sides, this game may play competitively but as less of a shootout than New Orleans was goaded into last week versus Seattle.

• Tampa Bay @ Pittsburgh - Besides the high likelihood of a Bucs win we discussed up top, the number two most probable event is the game scoring over 36.5 points, a 75.6% probability. It also seems safe that the Bucs win by more than a field goal with that Tampa Bay -3.5 coming up as a 68.8% probability. There's some chance Pittsburgh throws themselves in the game with a not insignificant 36.2% probability that the game scores over 50.5 points. I'm a Pickett believer with the talent around him but it seems likely tablets will be safe around TB12 this weekend

• Baltimore @ NY Giants — A Baltimore win is among the week's most likely outcomes at a 68.5% probability. All the other most likely marketss include Ravens +0.5 (1st quarter) and Ravens +0.5 (1st half), 68.3% and 67.7% probabilities respectively. It seems logical to expect the Ravens to stay in control throughout, perhaps with the Giants capable of hanging in enough for their lone offensive weapon Saquon Barkley to be useful once again.

• New England @ Cleveland — Through the prism of NFL advanced stats, this game screams "both teams will run the ball down the other's throat". The most probable markets don't run counter to that. Cleveland +3.5 is one of the game's most likely outcomes, a 67.4% probability. New England +7.5 comes with a 69.2% probability as well. There's a decently high 28.4% probability the game goes under 35.5 points, something that says this game could be a running game's delight in a way that kills the clock and makes it ugly. Targeting a shootout may be an error wwith the run games and both teams playing slowly in neutral pace situations.

• Arizona @ Seattle — Without the star wattage of Buffalo-Kansas City, this game looks to be an equally buzzworthy points bonanza. The highest probability outcome is the game scores under 57.5 points, a 70.2% probability. But Cardinals +3.5 is right behind at a 68.4% probability with Seahawks +7.5 at a 67.7% probability. It feels too obvious to target yet another Seattle shootout but with how poor their defense, as well as the Cardinals' defense, has been, this game could safely deliver a 55-point combined total and no one would blink an eye. Don't sleep on that 29.8% probability the game scores more than 57.5 points.

• Carolina @ LA Rams — The Rams' win probability mentioned above is a leader at a 78.4% probability but the Rams' first half moneyline isn't far behind at a 73.8% probability and the Rams' first quarter moneyline at a 70.2% probability. Everything screams Rams dominance despite the possible "dead cat bounce" for Carolina after firing the overmatched Matt Rhule.

• Buffalo @ Kansas City — There's a 68.2% probability that the game goes over 47.5 points, the most probable bet of the game. But it's not insignificant that means there's a 31.8% chance the game goes under 47.5 points. We've seen smart offenses play keep away from both these teams' high powered QBs at points and the alternate spreads tell a similar potential tale with Chiefs +7.5 the second most likely outcome at a 67.4% probability. This game may end up exciting but I believe the way you win at fantasy football this week is to not treat this game like an absolute must-have barn burner with points by the bucket. Touchdowns will be scored. A slate-breaking amount? Perhaps not.

• Dallas @ Philadelphia – Eagles +3.5 leads the way with a 78.9% probability while Eagles moneyline isn't far behind at a 71.3% probability. Cowboys +14.5 is the another of the game's most likely outcomes at a 74.1% probability. All this seems to say the Eagles should win comfortably with the Cowboys perhaps shaping up as fortunate enough to stay within two scores but never truly threaten to steal this one barring a fluky dud performance from the NFC East's new alpha dogs.

• Denver @ LA Chargers — Denver +14.5 is the game's most probable event at a 76.8% probability; you may start to notice a theme in every game with that bet as the most probable. When that market is the most probable, it typically means there's volatility in a team's ability to keep it close or get completely blown off the field. The Broncos' defense is stout enough to keep the team from getting embarrassed but the a Chargers win has a 67.4% probability for good reason. It could be another week of Russ cooking as poorly as a 90s sitcom wife despite a winnable matchup on paper.

As I write this email at 12:15 Eastern on Saturday, there's a lot of Czech professional basketball dominating the most probable events in live markets (if you're fading BK Opava, you're a fool...we all know that).

Besides those esoteric markets, a UAB win at home versus Charlotte is the most probable event in college football as a 92.4% probability. Their first half moneyline isn't far behind at an 86.6% probability. South Alabama looks to bring similar dominance tonight versus Louisiana-Monroe at home with a 86.2% probability to win. A Buffalo win rounds out the most likely events at an 85.7% likelihood in a game at UMass that'll start right around the time this email hits your inbox.

In the MLB playoffs, Astros +3 against the Mariners is the most likely event at an 83.1% probability. It's similarly high likelihoods for Dodgers-Padres under 11.5 runs at an 81.8% probability and Yankees-Guardians under 10.5 runs at an 81.5% probability. There are likely some alternate market values (in the regular season, we made a killing leveraging the likelihood of -1.5 and +1.5 bets) that will be easier for me to unearth for you in coming weeks but playoff baseball being something of a low-scoring slog is commonplace.

Pete Rodriguez winning against Mike Jackson is still the most likely outcome in the UFC card tonight with what is now an 84.1% probability. Victor Henry has a 78% probability to win with Joanderson Brito not far behind at a 77.2% probability to beat Lucas Alexander. Build around these guys in UFC DFS tonight; next week's card should be a bigger one to target with guys like Petr Yan and Aljamain Sterling on the docket.Last and likely least, if you were to bet on ANYTHING IN THE WORLD IF YOUR LIFE DEPENDED ON IT, take CD Aguila winning in El Salvadorian basketball at a 95.4% probability or the Ryukyu Golden Kings Okinawa winning bright and early tomorrow against Niigata at a 94.3% probability. Once again: If someone is threatening your life over Japanese and El Salvadorian pro hoops, try to find new friends. Or enemies.

Another week of the Probly email in the books. Hopefully this writeup adds some value to your understanding of this weekend of sports and, if it does, tell a friend to join us at ProblyApp.com! We'll keep grinding as best we can and, as always, we wish you the best of luck in your sports betting and fantasy endeavors.