🎲Thursday Night Football Disaster incoming?

Thursday Night Football is in the air tonight and the most probable event in sports is...in Japanese basketball as I write this? Sure why not. This is the first ever edition of the Probly Email, a breakdown of the most probable and most profitable events in the world of sports courtesy of our currently in development tools and data at Probly. "What is Probly?," you ask. Here's a preview of our currently private beta:

Probly is an idea I've been simmering on for the last year and change. It's an idea inspired by years of trying my best to be a profitable bettor and daily fantasy player (as well as vaguely competent content creator) and genuine curiosity about what insights can be gleaned from the best available market data. It's a goal of saving an industry from itself while we create the simplest, most fun sports product we can.You'll hear a lot about our journey as a product, company, and everything in between in the coming weeks, months, and hopefully years. For now what you need to know is that Probly is what happens next. It's a catchy slogan, hopefully. It also reflects what the world of sports is: a game of probabilities where you want to find the most advantageous ones. It can be a long-shot bet that luckily pays off with a last minute hail mary. It can be a highly likely bet that's mispriced by your local sportsbook.

 If you have the best data -- in our case, calculating data from top odds providers around the globe to determine the most credible True Probability for every event in REAL TIME -- you can then find mathematically profitable (+EV or positive expected value) sportsbook opportunities. Or you can know something as simple as "The Eagles have a 70% chance to win this weekend" and "Tom Brady has a 57% chance to throw for over 250 yards". It's a product that will help you be a profitable bettor -- or at least make informed decisions -- but we hope it'll also be something fun to play along with while watching a game even if you don't have money on the line.Our goal is to bring you the most -- and least -- probable events across the world of sports, whether it be wins, over-unders, or player props (next on our roadmap) in literal milliseconds to load. Since you're on our mailing/waiting list, you will get the first insights and earliest access to everything we put out. Your support is MASSIVELY appreciated -- and telling a friend who might be interested to join our list at ProblyApp.com would be even more!That's enough telling for one intro email so let's do some showing. Here are some of the most and least likely markets in the world of sports for September 22nd, 2022. - @ChrisSpags

• Thursday Night Football's most probable bets for Steelers-Browns

• And the least probable ones

• A quick look at NFL Week 3's most interesting markets

• And closing it out with THE MOST PROBABLE EVENTS IN ALL OF SPORTS

The Steelers face off with the Browns in Thursday Night Football. Pittsburgh is a 4.5 point underdog on the road and it's a bleak picture for Pittsburgh fans across the board. The most probable events according to our Probly Markets has Browns +0.5 as the most likely outcome for the 1st half and 1st quarter (70.5% and 66.3% respectively) while the Browns winning outright is a 65.4% likelihood.There could be some value in a Browns cover of the spread too: Pittsburgh's most likely positive outcome is covering a 6-point spread, a 64.3% probability.The least probable bets for TNF?

• #5 - Cleveland Browns -6 - 35.8% probability

• #4 - Steelers/Browns o21.5 pts (1st half) - 35.5% probability (A close but bad game, sounds about right)

• #3 - Steelers moneyline (to win) - 34.7% probability

• #2 - Steelers -0.5 (1st quarter) - 33.7% probability

• #1 - Steelers -0.5 (1st half) - 29.5% probability

Start Kenny Pickett, you cowards.

The Eagles' Super Bowl futures have surged after their Monday Night Football domination and Jalen Hurts' general awesomeness. The markets are heating up for the Eagles with their 70.1% likelihood of beating former beau Carson Wentz and the Commanders as the most probable event of the NFL this weekend.

The rest of the top? You still have the Browns covering 0.5 as the top overall bet at a 70.5% probability. Dallas covering 4.5 points Monday against the Giants has a 69.3% chance while the Bengals beating the Jets in New York has a nice 68.9% probability (as well as a +0.5 first half probability at 68.8%). The Chiefs close out the most likely outcomes with a 68.7% likelihood to win on the road at Indianapolis.The bottom of the barrel probabilities for NFL Week 3 get the bulletpoints of shame, not including the low probability Steelers -0.5 we mentioned above:

• #4 - Jets -0.5 vs Cincinnati - 31.3% probability

• #3 - Jets moneyline vs Cincinnati - 31.1% probability

• #2 - Dolphins moneyline vs Buffalo - 31.1% probability

• #1 - Commanders moneyline vs the Eagles - 30% probability

The good news: This isn't just an NFL thing! We, in fact, have data on a disgusting amount of sports ranging from international soccer leagues you've never heard of to stuff like handball and volleyball leagues (the latter are not currently public but if a bunch of handball aficionados want to pay for memberships, let's roll). As I wrote the first draft of this at 11PM on Wednesday, China and Japan winning in international basketball have the highest likelihood at 96.8% and 96.5% but those games will be going on by the time this sends. So here are the current most probable events across a variety of sports coming up this weekend:

• #1 - Mississippi State moneyline home vs Bowling Green - 96.3% probability College football has a lot of crazy markets but Bowling Green apparently has a literal snowball's chance in hell of winning

• #2 - LSU moneyline home vs New Mexico - 96% probability Brian Kelly may blow games and fake a Southern accent but falling prey to a place that has green chile and meth isn't in his repertoire

• #3 - Western Kentucky moneyline home vs Florida International - 95.6% probability Western Kentucky's moneyline is the indie band opening for the big festival acts LSU and Mississippi State

College football leads in top probabilities overall but you can try things like the Brett Johns moneyline in Bellator for a lofty 84.8% probability or the USA women beating Puerto Rico in the FIBA World Cup, a 98.3% probability.Least probable? You have the flip side of the US women, Puerto Rico's abysmal 1.7% probability to win outright. You also have South Korea's moneyline in the same tournament versus Belgium, a paltry 3.3% probability. There's also something called Shanghai Jiading Huilong, a soccer team in the Chinese Football Association, that has just a 2% win probability against Qingdao Youth Island. We all know the storied history of that rivalry and you'd be a FOOL to go against the Qingdao gang.Jordan Winski, the opponent for the aforementioned Brett Johns in Bellator, has the lowest win probability in MMA at 15.2% but he's a bargain compared to these teams you likely heard of for the first time just now.

I've got no clue how frequently I can put these out currently (we will see!) but I genuinely appreciate you all hanging out with me for this maiden voyage of the Probly Email. I'd also be an idiot if I didn't give a shoutout to our team, specifically my CTO -- and best friend since high school -- Edgar for helping to start to bring our Probly vision to life so I can even create content around this stuff, let alone build something cool.Stay tuned here for more to come, including a hands-on preview and a lot more in the coming weeks (see a teaser on today's Splash Play if you're curious like a cat). Good luck out there and I'll see you guys again soon!