🏈 Reading NFL Week 3 Markets to See How Games Will Go

NFL Week 3 is upon us so it’s time to dig in and see what the markets are doing in the weekly Probly email!

I’ve heard from a few folks who maybe missed previous emails so here it is in bold: Probly.com remains free to use through the weekend. Since I now fully realize we need to build in some explainer onto the app, here’s a quick one:

1️⃣ Scroll through all of our available markets
2️⃣ Click the Probability number (or swipe right) to see what the markets are saying is the “true probability” of a bet to win as well as what the current best available odds are
3️⃣ If you can find odds aligned with the best odds out there and it has a positive PROBLY Score, take the bet! Taking +EV bets will win you more money than it loses you! If not, you can still take the bet but be careful because negative PROBLY Score bets over time can fully deplete your bankroll.

With that spelled out, here’s your Probly email for September 22nd, 2023! - @ChrisSpags

• 🔓 Probly Product Updates: Probly.com lessons already learned

• 🏈 The most probable events of NFL Week 3

Every week feels like five weeks these days. But this week at Probly, we:

-Got our first media mention on Sportshandle.com alongside another really high quality startup that uses AI to help people make betting models, Rithmm (they seem like really nice folks so check them out)
-Had countless meetings ranging on items like infrastructure optimization, fundraising strategy, and marketing software
-Pushed a few data quality control updates to remedy some issues we ran into last weekend that I flagged in this email
-Continued to press on our Stripe install and how it will interact with free customers as well as those on our $19.99/month tier (which will give access to all sports’ data) and our $49.99/month tier (which will give access to all sports’ data as well as live in-game data and all future add-on products we create).

Needless to say: There are A LOT more things we need to do to make this more than just functional live betting data.

It’s very daunting, particularly when you’re bootstrapping this as I am. There are specialists and products I’d like to pay for that, frankly, I cannot afford while making sure our core products get paid for. There are a million things to tackle that are contingent upon finishing other items — like our Stripe install, which will include our “Sort by Most Profitable” bets functionality that will be crucial to begin a content flow on Probly’s Twitter, YouTube, TikTok, IG, etc.

I feel good about the work and the feedback you guys have provided so far — the biggest of which is what I mentioned up top, that we need some sort of explaner flow. People who have watched me stream using Probly seem to get how to use it but those who have not do not — and the numbers are holding steady to show that we have a very sticky, engaging product. It’s also even been nice to hop on LinkedIn and see people wanting to chat about Probly or show love since we’re actually getting treated like a real company by media.

But man this is stressful. I got a call from my mom right after I finished today’s Week 3-focused edition of Splash Play that my 97-year-old Grandmother is going on hospice care after some recent breathing issues and my first thought after the initial wave of sadness was “Well fuck I guess I need to make sure to get my meetings in during the first half of the week in case I have to be down in Long Island for the second half.” It isn’t healthy, I am acutely aware (even if, between us, I know my Grandma’s been ready to go for a while after she got to meet my son Luka and my uncle’s newborn). This is just the sacrifice that has to go into this stuff to ensure we have any chance of success in a market that is not going to hand me or Probly anything. We, quite literally, cannot afford for me to be sad.

I told you guys from day one that I’d keep it painfully candid here since that’s all I know and, frankly, what I think is deeply missing from our industry. I am hurting right now. But the show goes on and the work goes on and, even if I have to miss a few days, I do take some solace in knowing that Probly.com can still be working for someone out there even if I am not.

If you guys encounter any issues not covered here or want to provide feedback, you can email me [email protected].

Our Week 2 reads based on the top probabilities in each game ended up fairly on the nose (besides the Bengals’ on-going efforts to disappoint both their fans and anyone who believes in them). So let’s step back up with Week 3 with one of the biggest favorites we will see all year.

A Kansas City Chiefs win over a Bears franchise in TOTAL disarray this week has an 84% probability. The Chiefs, who were 13 point favorites in this game this morning before moving to -12.5 as I write thisi, should face a very hospitable defensive matchup while the Bears will face a Chiefs D that just largely embarrassed a better traditional QB in Trevor Lawrence.

Let’s go game by game and mix in some +EV bets where I see them: Here’s your NFL Week 3 Most Probable:

• Indianapolis (+8) at Baltimore (44 O/U) — Top five most probable: Ravens win at a 77% probablity, Ravens moneyline (1st quarter) at a 68% probability, Under 46.5 at a 60% probability, Under 46 at a 58% probability, and Under 45.5 at a 57% probability.
  
  What this means: With Anthony Richardson not yet out of concussion protocol, you are likely to see a Gardner Minshew start this week. And you can see what the markets think of that. The fact that the 1st half moneyline isn’t included does mean that perhaps there’s some hope for the Colts to keep it competitive heading into halftime and maybe even eking out a lead somehow behind the scrappy backup. On the plus side, Lamar Jackson over 45.5 rushing yards looks like a solid bet with a 55% probability and 3.6 PROBLY Score if you can get -115 odds (also would be good for an Underdog Pick’em or PrizePicks).

• Denver (+6.5) at Miami (48 O/U) — Top five most probable: Dolphins win at a 71% probability, Dolphins moneyline (1st half) at a 66% probability, Javonte Williams under 2.5 receptions at a 59% probability (another good one for an Underdog Pick’Em or PrizePicks), Under 57 at a 59% probability, and Durham Smythe over 2.5 receptions at a 59% probability.
  
  What this means: I feel like this game has a faint shot of shooting out but we’re not really seeing any high-bar over/unders here (there’s an Under 50.5 at a 58% probability which is as close as it gets). This feels a little more like last week’s Seahawks/Lions game which also did not have a high alternate over/under but ended up beating the market lines in an uglier fashion than expected. I do think Denver can get good results against a soft Miami D but I more safely expect another good week for Tua and co., if nothing else.

• Atlanta (+3) at Detroit (46.5 O/U) — Top five most probable: Lions win at a 60% probability, Jared Goff under 0.5 interceptions at a 60% probability, Desmond Ridder under 0.5 interceptions also at a 60% probability (and a 3.3 PROBLY Score at -136 odds), Lions moneyline (1st half) at a 58% probability, and Under 49 at a 58% probability.
  
  What it means: This game should be a little more defensively minded, though apparently not with a high likelihood of QB turnovers based on both Goff and Ridder being so favored to not throw a pick. The Falcons want to win ugly and the Lions have, thus far, not gotten fantastic results and now are without David Montgomery and have a banged up Amon-Ra St. Brown. I think Atlanta steals this one, though that is a Spags take and not a market take.

• New Orleans (+1) at Green Bay (42.5 O/U) — Top five most probable: Over 18.5 (1st half) at a 61% probability, Derek Carr under 1.5 passing TDs at a 60% probability, Saints +3 at a 60% probability (1.8 PROBLY Score on -143 odds), Over 40 at a 58% probability, and Under 45 at a 58% probability.
  
  What this means: It seems like the markets have pinned this one down to a low 40s game no matter what, which checks out with two slightly better than average defenses and two offenses who do not necessarily want to press things if they don’t have to. Christian Watson potentially back for the Packers maybe can open things up a bit but it does not seem like this is the game on paper that you’d target for massive outlier production for multiples of players. Based on these markets, I’d expect a game that goes down to the wire even if not an offensive explosion.

• LA Chargers (+1) at Minnesota (54 O/U) — Top five most probable: Under 57 at a 59% probability, Vikings +3 at a 59% probability, Over 52.5 at a 56% probability, and Chargers +2 at a 54% probability, and Over 53 at a 54% probability.
  
  What this means: This is the shootout game of the week that everyone will target and there is nothing here that should scare you away. A high-bar over/under means there’s a 41% chance this game scores more than 57 and, with two egregiously bad defenses, I’d very much be happy to be a chalk donkey and try to find a way to get unique on DFS sites while still getting major exposure to the stars of this game.

• Houston (+8) at Jacksonville (44.5 O/U) — Top five most probable: Over 42 at a 58% probability, Under 47 at a 58% probability, Over 42.5 at a 57% probability, Trevor Lawrence over 1.5 passing TDs at a 57% probability, and Under 46.5 at a 56% probability.
  
  What this means: This pretty much looks good for Trevor Lawrence and not much else. Lawrence has started the year playing worse than A LOT of QBs without his pedigree or talent around him so this could be a get well spot. The Texans’ side? Not a lot of market love there, particularly after this Jaguars D just made it very hard on Patrick Mahomes last week. I think there’s a little more life in CJ Stroud and Nico Collins in particular but the Jags still should be able to win comfortably.

• New England (-2.5) at NY Jets (36 O/U) — Top five most probable: Mac Jones under 1.5 passing TDs at a 62% probability, Garrett Wilson over 3.5 receptions at a 58% probability, Zach Wilson over 0.5 passing TDs at a 57% probability, Under 38.5 at a 57% probability, and Under 38 at a 56% probability.
  
  What this means: UGLY FOOTBALL. These are awful lines but also ones that don’t really show confidence in either team with two defenses that are unequivocally better than their opposing QB. If this game scores over 40, it’s a borderline miracle. But hey, kudos to Zach Wilson for having more than a coin toss’s shot at throwing a TD. That’s big for him!

• Buffalo (-6) at Washington (43 O/U) — Top five most probable: Bills win at a 70% probability, Bills moneyline (1st half) at a 65% probability (and a 1.3 PROBLY Score at -220 odds), Commanders under 20.5 at a 64% probability, Under 45 at a 58% probability, and Stefon Diggs over 5.5 receptions at a 57% probability.
  
  What this means: Stefon Diggs is an interesting lever in DFS with a lot of the field likely to swarm to Justin Jefferson and, to a lesser extent, Keenan Allen. But it does seem like the expectation is the Bills to win this one without much friction, particularly if the Commanders can’t muster up even three touchdowns.

• Tennessee (+3.5) at Cleveland (39 O/U) — Top five most probable: Ryan Tannehill over 0.5 passing TDs at a 70% probability, Under 21.5 (1st half) at a 62% probability, Browns win at a 61% probability, Elijah Moore under 3.5 receptions at a 60% probability, Browns moneyline (1st half) at a 60% probability.
  
  What this means: Given the confidence in a Browns win and 1st half lead, this seems like a game script where perhaps the Browns pick up an early lead that Ryan Tannehill has to dig out of as best he can (aka not well at all). A lot of the game will come down to Deshaun Watson’s hands — a legally established dangerous place to be — against a Tennessee pass defense that is A LOT worse than its run defense, particualry with Nick Chubb out for the year. The markets seem to trust that all a lot more than you’d think.

• Carolina (+5.5) at Seattle (42 O/U) — Top five most probable: Seahawks win at a 67% probability, Seahawks moneyline (1st half) at a 65% probability, Hayden Hurst under 3.5 receptions at a 61% probability, Under 45 at a 60% probability, and Over 38.5 at a 60% probability.
  
  What this means: This Seattle defense is definitely one that can be taken advantage of but can it be by Andy Dalton (expected to fill in for the injured Bryce Young)? Dalton had some solid moments last year taking over as the Saints starter but this is a pretty woeful receiver corps for Carolina — one they spent handsomely for this offseason, hilariously enough. I’m intrigued by the concept of a Dalton stack this week but the markets do NOT support this being anything other than a slog.

• Dallas (-13) at Arizona (43 O/U) — Top five most probable: Cowboys win at a 84% probability (slightly lower than KC’s despite the higher over/under), Cowboys moneyline (1st half) at a 77% probability, Cowboys moneyline (1st quarter) at a 69% probability, Over 40.5 at a 59% probability, Over 20.5 (1st half) at a 58% probability.
  
  What this means: This is a Dallas D that, on paper, should absolutely SMOKE the Cardinals. That said, they did just lose Trevon Diggs so perhaps that makes this slightly more competitive? I can’t imagine that matters much to the overall scheme based on my experience with how DVOA modeling worked. The Cowboys are likely the most popular Survivor pool pick this week, either them or the Chiefs, and I’d have no issue with it besides some of the general game theory of picking a chalk winner.

• Chicago (+12.5) at Kansas City (48 O/U) — Top five most probable: Chiefs win at an 84% probability, Chiefs moneyline (1st half) at a 76% probability, Under 52.5 at a 61% probability, Under 3.5 field goals (that’s a new one) at a 60% probability, Under 50.5 at a 59% probability.
  
  What it means: It seems like there is a decent expectation of not seeing a shootout here though I do have to, as always, point out that a 61% chance of Under 52.5 means a 39% chance of Over 52.5. You’re not seeing any hedges on the spread so it really feels like, no matter if the Bears score points or not, the Chiefs should roll in this one.

• Pittsburgh (+2.5) at Las Vegas (42.5 O/U) — Top five most probable: Steelers +3 at a 60% probability (and a 1 PROBLY Score at -175 odds), Under 45.5 at a 59% probability, Over 19.6 (1st half) at a 59% probability, Under 45 at a 57% probability, and Raiders win at a 57% probability.
  
  What this means: It seems likely we see a competitive Sunday Night Football game from this one but perhaps not the most exciting one. Seeing the 45.5 over/under lines means that there is a bit of a hedge from the main 42.5 point over/under so this may be a little more scoring-minded than it might seem on paper. Also two other quality +EV bets: Steelers +2.5 at a 56% probability and 3.2 PROBLY Score at -120 odds and Steelers +0.5 (1st half) at a 55% probability and 4.7 PROBLY Score at -140 odds.

• Philadelphia (-5) at Tampa Bay (46 O/U) — Top five most probable: Eagles win at a 66% probability, Baker Mayfield under 1.5 passing TDs at a 64% probability, Eagles moneyline (1st half) at a 63% probability, Dallas Goedert under 4.5 receptions at a 59% probability.
  
  What this means: Welcome back to Earth, Baker Mayfield and the Bucs! The Eagles are a fairly shut down pass defense despite what you saw from Minnesota’s highly successful receivers the last time they played. Their biggest weakness is defending TEs with a 0.53 EPA to the position but Cade Otton isn’t going to light it up enough to steal a win or anything. Philly should win but it may be competitive more on a defensive level than the Bucs continuing to sling it all over the traveling Eagles on a Monday Night Football doubleheader.

• LA Rams (+2.5) at Cincinnati (43.5 O/U) — Top five most probable: Under 46.5 at a 59% probability, Under 46 at a 58% probability, Under 45.5 at a 57% probability, Bengals win at a 57% probability, and Over 20 (1st half) at a 57% probability.
  
  What this means: One team has been playing over its head in the Rams, one team has been playing greatly under its head in the Bengals and it sounds like the rubber is somewhat expected to meet the road here. After the Rams were somehow able to throw all over the Niners with Puka Nacua so I now cannot fully write them off even when it feels like you should. The Bengals have struggled with targets under 20 air yards with a pretty bad 0.21 EPA allowed on those throws; this feels like a win for the Bengals against a feisty upset-minded Rams team with a little more scoring than the primary markets seem to expect.

Apologies to the fans of other sports but that NFL writeup likely takes up MORE than enough space for this email. The good news? If you want your favorite sports’ best bets, you can now go grab them for yourself whenever you please at Probly.com!

There we go guys, another one in the books in the only betting newsletter that also mixes in conversation about hospice care. I appreciate you guys reading this one even more than usual as I work through that stuff as well as everything we’ve got going on in the effort to build Probly into a powerhouse. It’s a lot but ultimately I believe you get out of things what you put in and you can always rest assured my team and I are doing everything we can to put all of ourselves into Probly.

As always, don’t be afraid to share Probly.com with a friend or several thousand of them. Take advantage of everything while it’s free so you can hopefully win enough to subscribe when we flip the switch soon because we got BILLS to pay. And, of course, good luck!