🔓 Reading NFL Week 1 Markets To See How Games Will Go

It’s the weekend of NFL Week 1 and of course that’s got me SWAMPED. But there are a lot of good things going on with Probly and that includes our official soft launch on the primary Probly.com domain and the return of our in-depth NFL Week 1 markets report!

We heard your feedback on our Probly MVP (thanks to all those who chimed in and even reported some success) and now we’re rolling out a free preview to everyone while we get our Stripe membership stuff sorted out and clear out the few remaining bugs. Lots to hit on so let’s get into it! Here’s your Probly email for September 9th, 2023! - @ChrisSpags

• 🔓 Probly Product Updates: Probly.com is LIVE for all with a free preview of EVERYTHING

• 🏈 The most probable events of NFL Week 1

Earlier this week, you fine folks on our list got the first look at Probly. Now we transition to the next stage of having this available for everyone and I’m very excited to have this out on Probly.com. If you’ve followed our journey since last fall, you know the work, effort, and care that went into this process from my CTO and best friend Edgar and me. And it means a lot to be able to see it there, live, on our domain. So I’m just going to say that for myself as much as you guys.

We’ve made a few tweaks since earlier this week and continue to fine tune the edges. I’d recommend checking my usage breakdown from last week to fully understand how to get the most out of Probly.

Here are the improvements we’ve made so far:

• We dropped our latency for updates from 15 minutes to 10 minutes throughout the day. We felt like we could make that tweak to ensure a more sturdy experience with more actionable data. The costs for AWS are egregious but we want to make sure you and any future customers get the best possible experience first and foremost and that’s one that we could pull off that had some expected gains with the costs.

• Swiping right on bets on the Markets page will now display the same modal that you see when clicking the Probability of a bet on any page. We’ll provide the market probability and details on what the top available bet is as well as which book provides it (so you can go chase it at that book or try to find the same odds at your own).

Here are some we are in progress of tackling:

• We are adding the same functionality as the above Swipe Right one to our Bet Now button on game tiles in the Explore page.

• We are fixing an item on the Share version of a Probly market where you do not get the full market line in those shared pages like this (which you can – and should! – share with your friends easily via the share button on our pages)

There are a few more functionalities we’re ironing out as it relates to search as well as the ability to bet against our markets (i.e. we’re talking about an Over 9.5 run line and you want to bet the Under 9.5 run line and see the best available bet) but we’ve been laser focused on getting this up and running on the primary domain and 100% functional for the primary use cases.

Next week, as I mentioned before, we will also begin adding content to our YouTube page @ProblyApp and more on the socials which are also @ProblyApp on Twitter, Instagram, and TikTok now that the product is live for everyone. I’m pretty much ready to go for YouTube and TikTok in particular but there is a lot to juggle between ongoing fundraising efforts (if you know rich people, tell them to invest in Probly) and marketing items as well as the product management process so it’s going to be a work in progress.

If you guys encounter any issues not covered here or want to provide feedback, you can email me [email protected].

NFL Week 1 is upon us and we’re going to honor it accordingly. Gone are the days in here where I’d declare a Most Likely winner from some esoteric European hoops team. No sir, now we’re putting main eventers in this spot and that starts with a Baltimore Ravens win this week at a 79% probability.

The Houston Texans are a team that will be rebuilt in the image of new head coach DeMeco Ryans and his Niners-infused staff but it does seem like Week 1 may be a bit if a tough one to expect results for rookie CJ Stroud and the gang.

Let’s dive into a feature I personally felt added a lot of value last year and now will hopefully be even better with us rolling prop bets into it. Here’s our game-by-game NFL Week 1 Most Probable events based upon data from top markets around the world:

• Cincinnati (-1.5) at Cleveland (48 O/U) — The five most probable markets: Under 50.5 points at a 61% probability, Tyler Boyd under 3.5 receptions at a 60% probability (with a 1.2 PROBLY Score bet if you can get -148 odds or better), over 39 points at a 60% probability, Irv Smith over 2.5 receptions at a 59% probability, and Bengals +3 at a 59% probability.
  
  What this means: There is some chance of a shootout here — over 44 points comes with a 58% probability — which could be interesting to lean into in a competitive game with a home dog. I know I’ve already been getting some Bengals stacks DFS wise and think this game could be a sneaky shootout, though admittedly we are not seeing a particularly noteworthy “high bar” over/under that features a high point total with lots of action coming in, something that is normally a huge signifier of a potential shootout.

• Arizona (+7) at Washington (38 O/U) — The five most probable markets: a Commanders win at a 73% probability, Commanders moneyline (1st half) at a 69% probability, Commanders moneyline (1st quarter) at a 64% probability, Sam Howell under 1.5 passing TDs at a 62% probability, and Logan Thomas under 2.5 receptions at a 58% probability.
  
  What this means: This seems like a killer spot for Brian Robinson or possibly Antonio Gibson with an ambiguous backfield under new OC/playcaller Eric Bienemy with a Commanders dominance narrative from the markets. A low total game where the Cardinals are expected to do very little screams for a defense and run game-dominant effort. The issue? The Commanders D and Brian Robinson should be VERY chalky on DraftKings. But this is absolutely your chalk Survivor league pick to take or fade to get away from the field this week.

• Jacksonville (-4.5) at Indianapolis (46 O/U) — The five most probable markets include: Anthony Richardson under 1.5 passing TDs at a 69% probability (boooooo), Jaguars moneyline (1st quarter) at a 59% probability, Calvin Ridley under 5.5 receptions at a 59% probability, Over 44.5 points at a 56% probability, and Zay Jones under 3.5 receptions at a 55% probability.
  
  What this means: This screams “Early failures by Anthony Richardson OR the Colts D lead to the Jaguars pulling ahead” and the Colts trying to dig out. It’s not a dominance narrative or anything so it does seem like the expectation is the Jonathan Taylor-less Colts will put up a fight on the back of my favorite rookie QB. People expecting a gangbusters offensive explosion from Jacksonville may be disappointed since that is a REAL expected lack of volume for new acquisition Calvin Ridley and 2022 standout Zay Jones. Maybe a big Travis Etienne day is afoot (if Tank Bigsby doesn’t eat his lunch in high value touches)?

• Tennessee (+3) at New Orleans (42 O/U) — The five most probable markets: Ryan Tannehill under 1.5 passing TDs at a 63% probability, Over 39 points at a 60% probability, New Orleans moneyline at a 59% probability, Over 39.5 points at a 59% probability, and DeAndre Hopkins over 4.5 receptions at a 58% probability.
  
  What this means: It seems like a gross effort for both teams is afoot. Low over/under, 40% chance of going under 39 points, it does not scream shootout. Last year, Tennessee was the worst team in the league at defending the deep ball so maybe New Orleans strikes at some point and doesn’t have to do much to stay ahead. But this does not seem like a conducive environment to trust much fantasy wise other than in a contrarian approach building 150 lineups or something.

• San Francisco (-2.5) at Pittsburgh (41.5 O/U) — The five most probable markets: Under 48 points has a 59% probability, Over 39 points has a slightly lower 59% probability, Brock Purdy under 1.5 passing TDs has a 58% probability, Under 44 points has a 58% probability, and Over 39.5 points has a 57% probability.
  
  What this means: I don’t expect a shootout per se but it’s interesting to see that Under 48 line with a 59% probability (as readers from last year will remember: That of course means there’s a 41% chance the game goes OVER 48 points). The Niners D was one of the best in the league last year with one fatal flaw of being able to be beaten deep. With George Pickens over 42.5 receiving yards at a 53% probability, I would not be shocked to see him take one to the house on a bomb as part of how the Steelers somehow keep this more competitive than it would seem on paper.

• Houston (+10) at Baltimore (43.5 O/U) — The five most probable markets: The aforementioned Ravens win at a 79% probability, Ravens moneyline (1st half) at a 72% probability, Under 46.5 points at a 60% probability, CJ Stroud over 0.5 interceptions at a 59% probability, and Ravens over 20.5 points (1st half) at a 57% probability (and a 1.4 PROBLY Score if you get the bet at -130 odds).
  
  What this means: Baltimore’s defense is very expensive on DFS sites this week but with the chance of a pick and a boat race (and you have to assume some sacks mixed in), they should have some appeal. This could be a game where the Ravens REALLY put it on the Texans, though perhaps not too likely to be some 50-7 type effort based on the lack of high alternate lines. You could make interpret the Over 46.5 points line having a 40% probability as the inverse of the under 46.5 points as something approximating that.

• Tampa Bay (+5) at Minnesota (46 O/U) - The five most probable markets: Minnesota win at a 68% probability, Under 49 points at a 58% probability, Alexander Mattison under 2.5 receptions at a 58% probability, Chris Godwin under 5.5 receptions at a 57% probability, and Kirk Cousins under 0.5 interceptions at a 57% probability.
  
  What this means: The Bucs are an interesting team based on projections for large DFS tournaments this weekend but this is a brual market reflection. It seems teetering on Minnesota dominance with Kirk Cousins not forced into major trouble. I expect Tampa Bay to get some production, particularly with Mike Evans likely to find some space downfield (assuming his contract extension woes don’t result in a dud). I love Justin Jefferson in this spot as someone who could help put the game out of distance early and I’d watch out for Chris Godwin being a potentially chalky trap.

• Carolina (+3.5) at Atlanta (39.5 O/U) — The five most probable markets: Desmond Ridder under 1.5 passing TDs at a 65% probability, Falcons win at a 63% probability, Under 42.5 points at a 60% probability, Falcons moneyline (1st half) at a 60% probability, and Under 42 points at a 59% probability.
  
  What his means: Atlanta’s defense made lots of free agent acquisitions in an effort to turn Arthur Smith’s team into the NFC Titans. The way they win is likely ugly, run-heavy, defensive matchups that keep risk out of Desmond Ridder’s hands. I do not expect them to produce much in the pass game if they don’t have to. There may be a glimmer of hope if Atlanta’s defense doesn’t fully jell given how bad they were last year in every facet of pass defense — as evidenced by the 40% chance it goes over 42.5 points. I’m a little intrigued by Carolina fighting the good fight in this one, perhaps through Miles Sanders and Terrace Marshall (or Jonathan Mingo if Marshall is inactive in his recovery from back injury).

• Las Vegas (+3.5) at Denver (43 O/U) — The five most probable markets: Over 41 points at a 61% probability, Broncos moneyline (1st half) at a 60% probability, Over 41.5 points at a 59% probability, Russell Wilson under 0.5 interceptions at a 58% probability, and Over 20 points (1st half) at a 58% probability.
  
  What this means: It feels like either side can win this one in what might be an ugly one. There’s a vague chance of some scoring given the 40% chances of scoring over 41.5 points but those lines read as hedges against the market but with a likely non-explosive Denver offense and a Vegas team that should be more professional but also less explosive with Jimmy Garoppolo at QB. I don’t hate a Raiders moneyline here, possibly in the form of Denver blowing an early lead.

• Philadelphia (-4) at New England (44.5 O/U) — The five most probable markets: Mac Jones under 1.5 passing TDs at a 64% probability, Eagles win at a 64% probability, Under 46.5 points at a 58% probability (which has a 1.9 PROBLY Score at -130 odds), Juju Smith-Schuster under 4.5 receptions at a 58% probability, and Over 19.5 points (1st half) at a 58% probability.
  
  What this means: This screams a weak start from the Patriots here. It doesn’t feel like we should expect a dominant Philly effort, particularly considering how good of a defense New England finished last year at. But the shift to new OC Bill O’Brien does not seem likely to pay immediate dividends if they can’t even get their top receiver over 4.5 catches. It could be an okay spot for Rhamondre Stevenson and/or Ezekiel Elliott since the way to beat the Eagles is on the ground. But I’m not exactly screaming with confidence for much in this game.

• LA Rams (+5.5) at Seattle (46 O/U) — The five most probable markets: Seahawks win at a 66% probability, Seahawks moneyline (1st half) at a 63% probability, Matthew Stafford under 1.5 passing TDs at a 62% probability, Van Jefferson under 3.5 receptions at a 61% probability, and Under 49 points at a 60% probability.
  
  What this means: No Cooper Kupp = many problems! The high bar alternate total giving this game a 40% chance of over 49 points is BAFFLING given the Matthew Stafford and presumed no. 1 receiver Van Jefferson props. So maybe there’s a chance of an outlier game for Cam Akers or the Rams defense here? I don’t see how the Rams will possibly be good in their secondary but they still have Aaron Donald. Or maybe the Seahawks just hang A LOT of points on them? Something is fishy with these markets and it might be something VERY low-owned that goes off.

• Green Bay (+1.5) at Chicago (41 O/U) — The five most probable markets: Jordan Love under 1.5 passing TDs at a 62% probability, Bears +3 at a 60% probability, Under 44.5 points at a 59% probability, Over 39.5 points at a 58% probability, and Under 44 points at a 57% probability.
  
  What this means: Maybe a tough start here for Jordan Love with Christian Watson out with a hamstring issue and #2 receiver Romeo Doubs questionable to go. But it does seem like this game has a shot to stay competitive to the end, as evidenced by that Bears +3 line. I’m expecting a scrappy effort from Green Bay despite how all this looks and do not hate the idea of betting them to pick up a win, perhaps achieved through defense and the run game. 

• Miami (+3) at LA Chargers (51 O/U) — The five most probable markets: Mike Williams under 4.5 receptions at a 60% probability (14.5 PROBLY Score at -109 odds), Raheem Mostert under 2.5 receptions at a 59% probability, Chargers moneyline (1st half) at a 59% probability, and Under 53.5 points at a 57% probability.
  
  What this means: This game will likely be targeted heavily as the shootout of the week but all of these lines — as well as Keenan Allen under 6.5 receptions at a 57% probability (with a 2.6 PROBLY Score at -123 odds) — seem to reflect less volume than you’d expected for the Chargers’ pass game offense with new OC Kellen Moore. There’s a high 55% probability of a Tua interception as well so maybe Dolphins end up playing from behind and diminish the Chargers pass game as a result?

• Dallas (-3) at NY Giants (45 O/U) — The five most probable markets: Cowboys win at a 62% probability, Over 42 points at a 60% probability, Over 43 points at a 57% probability, Under 47 points at a 56% probability, and Over 21 points (1st half) at a 56% probability.
  
  What this means: No super high-bar over/unders here on Sunday Night Football so I wouldn’t necessarily expect a shootout, particularly with a Cowboys defense that was top 3 in the NFC last year. I do expect some production though based upon all of these overs and a slightly higher over/under with that Under 47 points coming in with probabilities these high. Definitely doesn’t scream defensive battle. Also: 50% chance for over 71 yards for Ceedee Lamb does look solid for him despite a new offense I respect to be much worse than last year.

• Buffalo (-2.5) at NY Jets (46 O/U) — The five most probable markets: Under 47.5 points at a 58% probability, Bills win at a 57% probability, Over 43 points at a 57% probability, Under 47 points at a 56% probability, and Aaron Rodgers under 1.5 passing TDs at a 56% probability.
  
  What this means: It definitely seems like there’s some potential of a high scoring game here with the 42% chance of over 47.5 points. But it appears that could come through the run game for the Jets with Aaron Rodgers looking likely to throw less than 1.5 TDs. I’d expect a Bills win perhaps with a few errors or ineffectiveness issues cropping up for Rodgers with a faint chance the Bills outright smoke them.

Apologies to the fans ofo ther sports but that NFL writeup likely takes up MORE than enough space for this email. The good news? If you want other sports’ best bets, you can now go grab them for yourself whenever you please at Probly.com!

There we go guys, another one in the books. We’ve got the Probly product out and now the journey really begins to turn this into an actual, viable company. We will continue to do our best to demystify betting and give people a real look at what it takes to be a profitable bettor — while we iterate and do everything we can to ensure you get the best possible data and content from us to accomplish this.

Thank you guys for coming along on this ride and I hope you enjoy the Probly product. Tell a friend or 1,000…every bit of support helps at this stage. As always, thanks to all those who read all the way down here and I’ll see you guys next week!