🏈 What To Read Into NFL Week 2 Betting Markets

NFL Week 2 is afoot and, in my neverending efforts to optimize my schedule for success and sanity, now you will get this email EARLIER THAN EVER! That’s right: With Summer basically over, I figure I can bang this email out with quality data on Fridays and give you guys more time to read the NFL Week 2 Betting Markets breakdown so my plan is to move the flagship weekly Probly Email to Friday afternoons/evenings (depending on if something breaks while I’m writing it)!

Of course, Probly.com remains free for everything for the next few days so check it out and find some +EV bets, no matter what sport. We’ve got a whole lot to look at for the NFL and some fun data to share from our initial loss so let’s do it. Here’s your Probly email for September 15th, 2023! - @ChrisSpags

• 🔓 Probly Product Updates: Probly.com initial results and things to come

• 🏈 The most probable events of NFL Week 2

Our Probly product has now been out for basically 11 days. As I mentioned last week, just being able to get out this labor of love and see it live on our domain meant a lot to me. And now with some info coming in from you guys on our initial waitlist as well as our first public users, we feel even more strongly.

All of you combined who’ve come to Probly.com in this time period have spent, no joke, 73 pageviews per visit and 48 minutes spent per day. These are server side analytics from a self-selecting group of people who have been waiting to check out this product for a while. But to see that level of playing with it and clicking around means A LOT to see this early on, particularly before we’ve earned a single dollar from anyone.

Otherwise, we continue to grind away at pretty much everything. We’ve tweaked some of the items that needed to be fixed on the game tiles in our Explore page and in our Share page. Meanwhile, we continue to bug test our Stripe user profiles and tackle basic things like changing our Favicon, connect our user database to our Beehiiv mailing list, build an explainer video, refocus our ProblyApp.com website from its waitlist mode, make it so you can change your username if you register for an account, update our Share page so it populates on iMessage, Twitter/X, Instagram, Facebook…all the things that give Probly the veneer of professionalism (and virality) that we need.

We also have to do things like trying to optimize our AWS spend/architecture, fundraising efforts, partner efforts, media outreach, marketing/partnership collateral, and content development (since I’ve realized I probably need to create more evergreen stuff to get our pages off the ground). So it remains a work in progress that has already contributed a lot of late nights.

But ultimately seeing people use the product and seemingly come back to get value out of it is the main thing I needed to see at this point. So I hope Probly continues to delight you guys or at least highlight key information to know. We’re doing the work and appreciate the support thus far (and for the love of God please let it convert to revenue ❤️).

If you guys encounter any issues not covered here or want to provide feedback, you can email me [email protected].

As a PS: If you see any data that looks completely out of line currently, move past it and ignore; we encountered an issue as I was about to publish this where a small number of games have games have one or two bets with incorrect market probabilities due to something jammed up in our API. They’re marked with super low PROBLY Scores so it shouldn’t affect anyone but just wanted to flag it since I hate issues like this.

We move onto NFL Week 2 after a productive Week 1 on our read of each game’s mpst probable events. But of course, we must first declare this week’s Most Likely winner and, as you can see Lowe’s employee Dak Prescott has lovingly painted, that is in fact the Dallas Cowboys! I simply could not resist using that pic of Dak in the thumbnail.

A Dallas Cowboys win over the now-Zach Wilson helmed Jets comes in with a 78% probability to lead all of the Week 2 games. On the plus side, Dallas is a land known for its love of both hunting and MILFs so Zach has that going for him in his return to starterdom.

Last week we did a good job surfacing some spots that the markets had a lot more faith in than traditional fantasy projections (that Rams explosion in particular) and a few high PROBLY Score winners too so I’m liking the start. Let’s dig into the NFL Week 2 Most Probable events based upon data from top markets around the world:

• Seattle (+4.5) at Detroit (47 O/U) — Top five most probable: Lions moneyline (1st half) at a 64% probability, Over 42.5 at a 60% probability, Over 20.5 (1st half) at a 59% probability, Over 43.5 at a 59% probability, Over 44.5 at a slightly lower 59% probability, and Jared Goff over 1.5 passing touchdowns at a 58% probability.
  
  What this means: It feels like there’s a pretty solid floor for production, which makes me happy to see since I really think the Lions should crush here. If Puka Nacua and Tutu Atwell can obliterate the Seahawks, I really think Amon-Ra St. Brown and co. should. Goff in particular is a very interesting fantasy play. The one caveat: no high bar over/under means it does feel less likely to be a pure shootout, something that could benefit a Lions early lead and David Montgomery-dominant second half.

• Baltimore (+3) at Cincinnati (46.5 O/U) — Top five most probable: Bengals win at a 61% probability, Joe Burrow under 0.5 interceptions at a 60% probability, Bengals moneyline (1st half) at a 59% probability, Over 43.5 at a 59% probability, and Bengals moneyline (1st quarer) at a 58% probability.
  
  What this means: This honestly looks really bad for Baltimore. There were preseason reports of Lamar struggling with new OC Todd Monken’s new schemes and nothing done in Week 1 helped assuage that too much. These markets really scream Bengals bounceback after a brutal Week 1 but there seems to be a decent chance of scoring with that Over 43.5 line.

• Las Vegas (+8.5) at Buffalo (47 O/U) — Top five most probable: Bills win at a 77% probability, Bills moneyline (1st half) at a 72% probability, Bills moneyline (1st quarter) at a 68% probability, Under 49.5 at a 59% probability, and Over 44.5 at a 58% probability.
  
  What this means: Long-time readers of the Probly Email hopefully know a Dominance Narrative when they see one and this is it. The Raiders do not have a good defense so the Bills should make it happen offensively. But I do believe it’s possible the Raiders’ efficiency with Jimmy Garoppolo at QB might be a little underappreciated. I can’t successfully call another Raiders upset win here but I think they may be feistier than these markets make it seem.

• LA Chargers (-3) at Tennessee (45.5 O/U) — Top five most probable: Over 42.5 at a 60% probability, Over 43 at a 59% probability, Ryan Tannehill under 1.5 passing TDs at a 58% probability, Justin Herbert over 1.5 passing TDs at a 56% probability, and Under 47.5 at a 56% probability.
  
  What this means: It does feel like that market over/under is pretty efficient with the two lower total, higher probability overs coming up. The inverse probability of 44% chance going over 47.5 points is interesting but perhaps not a high enough bar to fully portend a shootout. The Chargers D was strafed by the Dolphins to the tune of 0.5 Expected Points Added per dropback and pass, exceedingly bad numbers, so playing a potential throw fest could be interesting in large-field DFS tournaments (especially if Austin Ekeler sits this one out).

• Indianapolis (+1) at Houston (39.5 O/U) — Top five most probable: Anthony Richardson under 1.5 passing TDs at a 69% probability (boo), Colts +3 (1st half) at a 63% probability, Colts +3 at a 60% probability, Over 42.5 at a 60% probability, and Texans +3 at a 59% probability.
  
  What this means: This seems like high probabilities for a competitive game. With the +3 hedges on both sides, it could quite literally come down to a field goal. Neither team showed much defensively in Week 1 so this could be a game where they trade punches but perhaps don’t reach an apex of production. I’m intrigued by a shootout for this one with Richardson’s good start and CJ Stroud’s high volume of dropbacks in Week 1 but the support is not fully there market-wise.

• Chicago (+2.5) at Tampa Bay (41 O/U) — Top five most probable: Justin Fields over 0.5 passing TDs at a 67% probability, Baker Mayfield under 1.5 passing TDs at a 62% probability, Over 38 at a 60% probability, Bucs moneyline (1st half) at a 58% probability, and Darnell Mooney over 2.5 receptions at a 57% probability.
  
  What this means: It could be a good day for Justin Fields with that high of a likelihood of him getting at least one passing TDs along with his usual rushing efforts. Overall though, you’re not seeing very high alternate totals despite two defenses — Chicago’s especially — that mostly stink. It does seem like a competitive environment that should end in a Bucs win and maybe some more shockingly competent production for Baker Mayfield and Mike Evans.

• Kansas City (-3.5) at Jacksonville (51.5 O/U) — Top five most probable: Chiefs win at a 61% probability, Over 48.5 at a 58% probability, Patrick Mahomes under 2.5 passing TDs at a 58% probability, Under 53.5 at a 57% probability, and Patrick Mahomes under 0.5 interceptions at a 57% probability.
  
  What this means: It seems like it’s safe to expect some scoring here with the over 48.5 line but the only other high bar over/under have is the under 53.5 line. So it feels like there’s some confidence of scoring within that range. That should offer more than enough fantasy production, though perhaps not all through the arm of Mahomes with his passing TD prop. It wouldn’t be shocking to see some scores on the ground from Mahomes, the RBs, or even a Kadarius Toney on a day where, with Travis Kelce returning, everyone will expect heavy pass volume.

• Green Bay (+1.5) at Atlanta (40.5 O/U) — Top five most probable: Under 22 (1st half) at a 64% probability, Packers +3 (1st half) at a 64% probability, Jordan Love under 1.5 passing TDs at a 62% probability, Under 20.5 (1st half) at a 60% probability, and Packers +3 at a 60% probability.
  
  What this means: Despite the dome and two interesting young offenses, it does seem like more of a competitive defensive matchup is expected here. The Falcons looked strong defensively in their debut while the Packers also kept Justin Fields safely at bay so there is some logic in expecting middling offensive performances in this one (even though I personally think the offenses in this one may have more to offer than this total dictates).

• San Francisco (-7.5) at LA Rams (45 O/U) — Top five most probable: Niners win at a 73% probability, Niners moneyline (1st half) at a 68% probability, Niners moneyline (1st quarter) at a 65% probability, Over 19.5 (1st half) at a 63% probability, Tutu Atwell over 3.5 receptions at a 59% probability.
  
  What this means: It seems hard to expect the Rams to dominate offensively like they did last week against a top Niners defense who’s a heavy road favorite. Tutu Atwell may benefit from Puka Nacua’s oblique injury that could keep him on the sidelines alongside IR’s Cooper Kupp but this feels like absolute Niners dominance.

• NY Giants (-4) at Arizona (40 O/U) — Top five most probable: Giants win at a 65% probability, Daniel Jones under 1.5 passing TDs at a 61% probability, Giants moneyline (1st half) at a 60% probability, under 42.5 at a 59% probability, and Over 37.5 at a 57% probability.
  
  What this means: It looks like a somewhat ugly one incoming from a Cardinals team that was able to muck it up against the Commanders and a Giants team that looked downright inept versus the Cowboys. Given the lack of a Giants dominance narrative and how poor they looked, I don’t hate playing an Arizona upset at home. If nothing else, this is NOT the game I would take in a survivor pool. The Giants are favorites for a reason but it feels flimsier than, say, Niners-Rams.

• NY Jets (+8.5) at Dallas (38.5 O/U) — Top five most probable: Cowboys win at the aforementioned 78% probability, Cowboys moneyline (1st half) at a 72% probability, Cowboys moneyline (1st quarter) at a 69% probability, Under 42 at a 60% probability, and Dak Prescott under 1.5 passing TDs at a 59% probability.
  
  What this means: It looks like a bad scene for Zach Wilson against one of the league’s top defenses who just abused a better QB in Daniel Jones. It feels like Tony Pollard should smash here if the Jets are this limp of a threat but it could just be a defensive battle that the Cowboys mostly control through field goals and ugliness.

• Washington (+3.5) at Denver (39 O/U) — Top five most probable: Sam Howell over 0.5 passing TDs at a 70% probability, Broncos moneyline (1st half) at a 61% probability, Russell Wilson under 1.5 passing TDs at a 61% probability, Broncos moneyline (1st quarter) at a 60% probability.
  
  What this means: It’s interesting that the two Broncos moneylines for 1st quarter and 1st hafl are here but not an overall moneyline. That might scream that the markets are willing to accept another potential situation of the Broncos blowing the game down the stretch, perhaps fueled by a Sam Howell comeback?

• Miami (-2.5) at New England (46 O/U) — Top five most probable: Dolphins win at a 57% probability, Under 48.5 at a 58% probability, Over 44 at a 57% probability, Over 44.5 at a 55% probability, and Dolphins +1.5 (1st half) at a 56% probability.
  
  What this means: The Dolphins are going to be a public team after they threw all over the Chargers in Week 1 but it seems like a bit of a Sunday Night Football comedown may be in play. Tua’s passing props have gone from high 270s to 264.5 as of this afternoon so it seems like the markets have hammered these down to reflect how solid this Patriots defense has been. They completely shut down the Eagles’ vaunted pass game so perhaps this could be one that they ugly up to stay competitive against a fun, downfield attacking Miami team.

• New Orleans (-3) at Carolina (39.5 O/U) — Top five most probable: Under 43 at a 61% probability, Saints win at a 60% probability, Under 42 at a 59% probability, Over 37 at a 58% probability, and Saints moneyline (1st half) at a 58% probability.
  
  What this means: The first half of a Monday Night Football two-gamer looks pretty awful. It seems like the Saints should be able to eke one out but it may be a fairly hideous effort in doing so. At least you can expect production in the high 30s at a minimum, it would seem but both teams could really grind out on the ground in a not-so-fun kick and run fest.

• Cleveland (-2.5) at Pittsburgh (38 O/U) — Top five most probable: Kenny Pickett under 1.5 passing TDs at a 67% probability, Deshaun Watson under 1.5 passing TDs at a 63% probability, Under 42 at a 61% probability, Over 35.5 at a 59% probability, and Under 7.5 (1st quarter) at a 58% probability.
  
  What this means: Lovers of the run being established, this might be the duo of Monday Night Football games for you. Pittsburgh’s defense was carved up by a high-efficiency Niners team in Week 1 but it does seem like there’s an expectation of some bounceback

Apologies to the fans of other sports but that NFL writeup likely takes up MORE than enough space for this email. The good news? If you want your favorite sports’ best bets, you can now go grab them for yourself whenever you please at Probly.com!

There we go guys, another one in the books just in time for me to go get Luka from daycare! The fun never stops. But thanks as always to all the folks who read all the way down here.

Don’t be afraid to share Probly.com with a friend ot several thousand and hopefully we’ll have a lot more to come. Best of luck to you all this weekend and always be sure to check the site for the latest info and bets!