📱 Probly Is NOW Live On The App Store, Get A Free Trial!

It’s been a quality week of work here at Probly with us finally getting over the hump: Probly is now live in the App Store! I’ll talk more about the process in our product updates but it’s a big moment for us in the hopes of getting our powerful little product in more people’s hands.

The good news for you of us being on the App Store, besides just maybe some ease of use: You can now get a SEVEN-DAY FREE TRIAL on the App Store version of Probly! We can also REALLY use your help with five stars and a review if you can since we are competing against much better funded apps. Your support to help us get seen by more people would go a long way.

If you’ve been curious here about the results from some of our earliest customers like Jason, one of our first yearly Probly+ members who’s now won over $2,000 off of Probly and its data:

You can also still get use the promo code FIRST for 50% off at Probly.com/subscribe to get one month of pre-game data for $9.99/month or live in-game data for $24.99/month (substantially cheaper if you buy a year, $8/month and $21/month respectiely). So the options are now you get a free trial on the App Store or you can get it for cheaper through us. I hope that gives you guys the optionality to give us a shot!

There’s no NFL this weekend but we’ll take a look around some other sports, specifically NBA, and also catch up on an interesting week of Probly updates — including our first challenges of dealing with an outage yesterday that delayed this email until now. Here’s your Probly email for February 3rd, 2024! - @ChrisSpags

• 🔮 A Random Smattering Of +EV Bets In The NBA And Elsewhere

• 🔓 Probly Updates: The App Store, Growth, and An API Rug Pull

No NFL this weekend, so here’s a smattering of +EV NBA bets according to Probly data right now. If you win money, I expect you to immediately join the fam at Probly.com/subscribe or via the App Store. Fair is fair.

I personally hit all of this, as I always do with bets in content, so we thrive or drown together my friends! Hit that 7-day free trial on the App Store to get even more, including a ton in college hoops, MMA, and tennis!

1️⃣ Scroll through all of our available markets
2️⃣ Click the Probability number (or swipe right) to see what the markets are saying is the “true probability” of a bet to win as well as what the current best available odds are. If you’re a paid member, simply sort by Most Profitable to filter out all PROBLY Scores under zero.
3️⃣ If you can find odds aligned with the best odds out there and it has a positive PROBLY Score (especially over a 2.0), take the bet! Taking +EV bets will win you more money than it loses you! If not, you can still take the bet but be careful because negative PROBLY Score bets over time can fully deplete your bankroll.

It was a good week here until a dumpster fire yesterday. Our @ProblyApp TikTok has been starting to get some material amount of views despite more of a .500 week on our picks within the videos themselves. But I think the communication about the bets and the format of Top 5 bets has worked for us, while allowing me to add a human face to our successes or try to “content it up” when we get smoked by mathematically profitable Luka Doncic unders.

But the bigger thing for the week is that we are very stoked to be live on the App Store. For fun, above is the image I made for our App Store listing in its non-”split up into a bunch of screenshots” form that you have to do on there to maximize conversions. After we scheduled a call with an App Store review contact, we were able to make the necessary changes (legalese on our In-App Purchase page and attaching the In-App Purchase to our binary) and got approved on Monday.

I really can’t encourage you enough to check out Probly on the App Store, particularly since we’re excited to finally offer everyone a free trial to see how it is.

With a backtested 15-20% ROI per sport and a 45-60% win rate on +EV bets (the lower probability ones that hit skew the average), we feel really confident in our product being tops in the industry. Especially relative to its price point and our attempts at ease of use. So if you haven’t taken a shot yet, you’re not going to do much better than free.

We’re currently in a process of trying to simplify things, which you may have noticed. That includes adding in our current Best Bet right onto the slide itself:

We plan to also move our “Probly Yes / Probly No” vote/tracking system to a button on the right rail while adding the “Last Updated” time on the bottom of each Market slide instead. We want to make it easier than it currently is to browse and swap over to your sportsbook app while keeping our data at the forefront.

After that, we have improvements to our Most Profitable filtering coming as well as some additional changes we think can be a gamechanger on the Probly.com homepage, but TBD on how long that takes.

I discussed last week how this App Store approval process unfortunately slowed down some of these tweaks we wanted to make. On Friday, we had a similar issue where we were not properly displaying bets on the site from the time I woke up ready to do our daily Best Bets videos until going to bed last night.

Basically, our data providers at OddsJam made a tweak to their API to improve latency earlier in the week. As a result, they inadvertently changed part of the dateline in the feed, which is what Probly uses to pull or add data based upon when it was most recently updated. After our CTO caught that and fixed it on Wednesday, it happened again. Then, it happened again. And then another time on Friday AM that resulted in breakages in our process.

We’ve tipped them off about it so we don’t believe it’ll be an issue moving forward with some new code that should cover us even if they mess up on their end. It’s obviously exceedingly stressful when we have any outage. And, with how many of you guys use the app now, we also feel added pressure to not let you down. Add to that the new people who may discover the app in the App Store only to find a broken experience and we have a LOT of folks we do not want to let down or see have a bad first experience on the app.

Either way — if you ever see an issue, don’t be afraid to let us know via [email protected] (as a few of you did today). Even if we are aware of the outage, we are happy to hear from you and keep you in the loop when we resolve the issue. We apologize for the inconveience and hopefully have this one resolved. Unfortunately, when you have an elaborate data process like it takes to make Probly work, this stuff can happen when unexpected changes occur that we have to fix. Rest assured, we are stressing about it and working to fix it as fast as possible.

If you guys encounter any issues not covered here or want to provide feedback, you can email me [email protected].

That pretty much covers everything for this week. A lot more length on the product side than the bets side of things but there’s a lot more to talk about on the product this week. Our NBA data has been crushing for a while now so I hope these bets treat everyone well today.

As always, thanks to all of you who read all the way down here. Use promo code FIRST to get 50% off at Probly.com/subscribe to actually start winning money on your bets with some reliability! And don’t forget the 7-day free trial if you go the App Store route as well! Let’s pray our APIs remain unchanged in the mean time and I’ll see you next week for more! Good luck!