🔮 Predicting The Future With NFL Week 6 Markets

It’s been a quiet week at Probly with most of the industry occupied with the G2E conference in Las Vegas as we continue to fine-tune Probly.com. The hamster wheel of glacial progress soldiers on but we appreciate everyone who continues to visit Probly regularly.

I’m under the gun to get this out in a timely fashion so let’s waste no time getting into our product update and NFL Week 6’s Most Probable events! Let’s get started with your Probly Email for October 13th, 2023! - @ChrisSpags

• 🔓 Probly Product Updates: Twiddling Thumbs

• 🏈 Predicting the future with the Most Probable events of NFL Week 6

It’s been a fairly slow week at a crucial time here at Probly as we continue to try to iron out any bugs while also getting our paid products out — in particular, our Most Profitable and Live event sorting — that will help me begin the content cycle we need to convert users.

Candidly, it’s been sort of painful for me to navigate this massive G2E conference in Las Vegas (that you may not have ever heard of but is apparently a MAJOR thing in the sports betting industry). There is no way I could have spun it financially with the bootstrapped costs mounting for Probly but it’s an event where, literally, every email I’ve exchanged with potential partners or investors in the space included “Oh, you’re going to be at G2E right?” It feels like a missed opportunity for us to maybe find the solutions we need and do the networking that is needed (which admittedly is never a strong suit of mine outside of charming Zoom or Google Meet sessions) to get where we need to go.

It would be a bit less painful if we had things perfectly aligned with improvements we need to make for Probly; we’ve optimized a few things to minimize some of our database costs but we still need to get our revenue generating products live and also to tighten up some of the issues we come across (in particular, expiring events in a proper timeframe to allow the forward looking markets to be featured properly and trying to work around DynamoDB’s limitations that hurt our product functionality). It frustrates me often.

The balance of needed work, having only one tech person to do it as fast as they can, and the inability to pay for external partners to help fix things and assuage concerns has been one of my biggest frustrations in this bootstrapped journey. It gets to the point where I make graphics for things like our Apple Store optimization items just to do something producitve — even though we have like ten items to knock out before we can even get live there. I’ve never really known what a “blocker” is until this point in life where, quite literally, everything we can control is held up by internal blockers and everything we can’t control is held up by external blockers.

As is often the case in this section, this is half-”Here’s what it’s like trying to make a company” and half-”Spags needs to vent” but this is where things stand as of right now. We’re glad to see you guys and other customers using the product regularly and clearly getting some use out of it, that’s the good side of things. Despite these issues that are driving me nuts (and not making us money), the core functionality and use case is still there.

But it is a hard spot to feel hamstrung as the non-technical founder with the needed work coming from soneone else’s hands. Hopefully good things will come from the litany of followups I have to do next week because right now, I am really in need of some blockers that keep us from doing the real work to be eliminated.

If you guys encounter any issues not covered here or want to provide feedback, you can email me [email protected].

NFL Week 6 is here and, as always, that means it’s time to look through the most probable events in every game to see the potential future game flow.

And, once again, the most probable event is a win against the Giants. This time it’s Josh Allen and the Bills as a Bills win is at an 89% probability, one of the biggest favorites we’ve seen in the last two seasons of doing the Probly email. The Giants may actually be slightly less of a disaster with Daniel Jones sidelined for vet Tyrod Taylor but it’s hard to expect a miracle win on Sunday Night Football.

Let’s go game by game and mix in some +EV bets via our PROBLY Score where applicable: Here’s your NFL Week 6 Most Probable:

• Baltimore (-4.5) at Tennessee (42 O/U) —  Top five most probable: Chris Moore under 0.5 TDs at an 84% probability, Tyjae Spears under 0.5 TDs at a 76% probability, Gus Edwards under 0.5 TDs at a 71% probability, Ravens win at a 65% probability, and Ravens moneyline (1st half) at a 60% probability.
  
  What this means: Well it’s never a good sign when the Most Probable bets include guys not scoring touchdowns. There is a decent Ravens dominance narrative here besides that though with the 6th best bet also including the Ravens moneyline for the 1st quarter at a 59% probability. This one looks ugly despite the Ravens spending the entire week in London to get themselves more ready for the game. Maybe that benefits Baltimore enough to win this one fairly easily, as the markets seem to indicate.

• Minnesota (-3) at Chicago (43.5 O/U) —  Top five most probable: Under 24.5 (1st half) at a 62% probability, Vikings win at a 58% probablity, Over 41.5 at a 57% probability, Over 42.5 at a 55% probability, Kirk Cousins under 252.5 at a 56% probability (and a 3.6 PROBLY Score at -117 odds).
  
  What this means: Chicago is one of the worst pass defenses in the league and Minnesota is not any better. But with weather concerns in Chicago — as well as no Justin Jefferson — it seems like the markets expect more of a slog. I am really intrigued by the idea of Kirk Cousins stacks on DraftKings with the enormous vacated target share by Minnesota’s loss of Justin Jefferson. But the markets this looks like one the Vikings win ugly rather than a shootout, despite the obvious flaws both teams bring to the table. If you’re a Bears backer too, there’s a nice Bears +1.5 at a 53% probability and 8.3 PROBLY Score at +105 odds.

• Washington (+2.5) at Atlanta (42.5 O/U) —  Top five most probable: MyCole Pruitt under 0.5 touchdowns at a 91% probability, Terry McLaurin under 0.5 touchdowns at a 72% probability, Jahan Dotson over 2.5 receptions at a 61% probability, Bijan Robinson under 3.5 receptions at a 60% probability, and Kyle Pitts under 3.5 receptions at a 58% probability.
  
  What this means: It is VERY rare to see this many player props in a top five with no whiff of a game-flow related one; Over 40 at a 57% probability and Falcons win at a 56% probability are numbers 6 and 7 on the list. It does seem like another game where there is not an aggressive amount of scoring expected and, perhaps, a little bit of a slog with the run-heavy Atlanta side of the ball squeezing the air out of a the league’s top pass rate team in Washington. This feels like a run-heavy potential field goal fest without much obvious to love despite a Washington defense that has fallen apart as the season goes on.

• New Orleans (-1.5) at Houston (42.5 O/U) —  Top five most probable: Derek Carr under 0.5 player TDs at a 90% probability (note: This refers to his rushing/etc, not passing which has Under 1.5 passing TDs at a 64% probability), Under 45 at a 60% probability, Under 44 at a 58% probability, Over 7 (1st quarter) at a 56% probability, and Saints +2.5 at a 55% probability.
  
  What this means: Stop me if you’ve heard this one before: this game looks gross. It does seem like the high bar over/unders at 45 and 44 at least give a shot to get closer to shootout territory or, at the very least, beat the market over/under. There’s not much to feel overly confident about but, based on fantasy projections, it does seem like Saints stacks may have some decent representation this weekend. These totals don’t do much to say they definitely can’t have an outlier day.

• Carolina (+14) at Miami (47.5 O/U) — Top five most probable: Dolphins win at an 87% probability, DJ Chark under 0.5 TDs at a 79% probability, Over 45 at a 58% probability, Durham Smythe over 1.5 receptions at a 57% probability, and Under 50.5 at a 57% probability.
  
  What this means: In most weeks, this would be your Most Likely winner but not this time! You can seemingly safely expect this game to get over 45 points though and that 50.5 point alternate total bodes well for the potential to see this game have some scoring. Maybe some chance for production on both sides as Carolina will likely have to press their offense more than it’s been at any point this year to have a shot to even stay within this two touchdown spread. Hayden Hurst over 2.5 receptions has a 56% probability and a 4.3 PROBLY Score at -114 odds, Adam Thielen over 5.5 receptions has a 51% probability (and a -7.9 PROBLY Score)…maybe there’s a chance Carolina actually does have success on offense sheerly out of necessity.

• Indianapolis (+4) at Jacksonville (44.5 O/U) — Top five most probable: Kylen Granson under 0.5 TDs at an 83% probability, Jaguars win at a 65% probability, Alec Pierce under 2.5 receptions at a 62% probability, Over 43 at a 58% probability, and Under 48.5 at a 57% probability.
  
  What this means: No Anthony Richardson, many problems! The Under 48.5 total popping up is kind of interesting because it does say that maybe the Colts can force a shootout here despite Gardner Minshew’s lack of downfield attack. Minshew over 32.5 passing attempts comes with a 55% probability (and a 2.9 PROBLY Score at -115 odds) so it looks like a good bet as well as a potentially informative one; this could be a lot of Colts playing catchup againt a Jags team that should find some explosive plays.

• Seattle (+3) at Cincinnati (44.5 O/U) — Top five most probable: Joe Burrow under 0.5 TDs at an 85% probability (again, rushing/etc TDs not passing), Zach Charbonnet under 0.5 TDs at an 81% probability, Under 24.5 (1st half) at a 62% probability, Under 48.5 at a 57% probability, and Ja’Marr Chase over 6.5 receptions at a 57% probability.
  
  What this means: That high bar over/under is a good signal for there being some scoring here against a Seattle defense that has been VERY weak at portions of this season and shockingly competent at others. That’s an important one since a lot of the DFS field is expected to play Ja’Marr Chase again this week and I have some serious concerns about that if Tee Higgins is back in the mix. This definitely seems like a game you can target for some potential upside, whether you include Chase or not.

• San Francisco (-10) at Cleveland (36 O/U) — Top five most probable: Kareem Hunt under 0.5 TDs at an 84% probability, Niners win at a 66% probability, Niners moneyline (1st half) at a 65% probability, George Kittle under 3.5 receptions at a 61% probability, and Niners moneyline (1st quarter) at a 58% probability.
  
  What this means: With Deshaun Watson out again with his mysterious shoulder issues and journeyman/one-time XFL stud PJ Walker expected to start, it is SHOCKING to see only a 66% win probability for the Niners. The Browns’ defense has been vaguely resembling a world beater to start the year so it seems like that’s the most likely pathway to the Browns staying vaguely competitive. I know how the Niners can find results against a tough D. I do not know how the Browns can.

• New England (+3) at Las Vegas (41.5 O/U) — Top five most probable: Devante Parker under 3.5 receptions at a 61% probability, Raiders moneyline (1st half) at a 57% probability, Jakobi Meyers under 5.5 receptions at a 59% probability (and a 1.9 PROBLY Score at -135 odds), Under 22.5 (1st half) at a 58% probability, and Under 42.5 at a 56% probability (and 2 PROBLY Score at -120 odds).
  
  What this means: This seems like a decently heavy Raiders lean from the top markets, which isn’t a surprise with how bad New England has been. Josh Jacobs will be one of the most popular DFS plays this week and I really didn’t see it on paper but I guess it makes sense with what these markets are saying: This SCREAMS run-heavy game for two teams that are very happy to not pass too aggressively if they can get away with it. I still question the ceilings due to the crappy game environment, though.

• Arizona (+7) at LA Rams (48.5 O/U) — Top five most probable: Rams win at a 70% probability, Rams moneyline (1st half) at a 68% probability, Matthew Stafford over 1.5 passing TDs at a 60% probability, Under 49.5 at a 58% probability, and Cooper Kupp under 0.5 receiving TDs at a 57% probability.
  
  What this means: Matthew Stafford projects to be another of the most popular DFS plays this week so it does seem like there’s some safety to him in this spot with a 60% chance he throws for over 1.5 TDs. It’s even more interesting to see how low of a probability Cooper Kupp is to catch a TD; perhaps a sign that you could go Stafford-Puka/Kyren Williams (maybe even Tutu Atwell) stacks in fantasy to get some leverage. Stafford under 277.5 passing yards has a 56% probability and a 6 PROBLY Score at -114 odds so that might be a good bet to take to hedge if you play a lot of Stafford on DraftKings or FanDuel. But overall: It does seem like you can safely expect Stafford to put up some points while you hope the Cardinals keep up.

• Philadelphia (-7) at NY Jets (40.5 O/U) — Top five most probable: Eagles win at a 71% probability, Breece Hall under 0.5 TDs at a 65% probability, Breece Hall under 2.5 receptions at a 58% probability, Kenneth Gainwell under 1.5 receptions at a 57% probability, and Greg Zuerlein over 4.5 kicking points at a 55% probability.
  
  What this means: This sounds a lot like a game where the Jets really struggle to move the ball and provide some bad news for Breece Hall enthusiasts. That said, it’s hard to see why the Eagles’ win probability would be so low unless you expect them to also struggle some against a Jets D that was definitely better last year but still can cause some problems. The best bet might be to expect some field goals from the Eagles; one way the Jets stay competitive is to limit the damage when this high powered offense gets to their side of the field.

• Detroit (-3) at Tampa Bay (42.5 O/U) — Top five most probable: Jared Goff under 0.5 TDs (rushing/etc) at a 90% probability, Jameson Williams under 0.5 TDs at an 88% probability, Baker Mayfield under 0.5 TDs (rushing/etc) at an 85% probability, Josh Reynolds under 0.5 TDs at a 77% probability, and Mike Evans under 0.5 TDs at a 66% probability.
  
  What this means: Mike Evans might not be active so that market isn’t too much of a surprise. But that is a whole lot of “This guy isn’t going to score a TD” markets. You’ll note that David Montgomery, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Sam LaPorta, and Chris Godwin aren’t part of that mix, which makes sense as steady options in a game that should have some defense its way. Besides the TD props, there is an Under 46.5 at a 59% probability that pops up, which is noteworthy as a higher bar over/under than the market’s 42.5. I’d expect there to be some potential of higher production as a result, making this an interesting game to attack with low ownership.

• NY Giants (+15) at Buffalo (44.5 O/U) — Top five most probable: Buffalo win at an 89% probability, Tyrod Taylor under 0.5 TDs (rushing/etc) at an 82% probability, Bills moneyline (1st half) at a 78% probability, Bills moneyline (1st quarter) at a 75% probability, and Josh Allen over 1.5 passing TDs at a 64% probability.
  
  What this means: I’m surprised to see such a low shot of Tyrod Taylor to run one in given how frequently Daniel Jones has run one in — though, for DFS, an 18% shot of a rushing TD for Tyrod isn’t bad. But this mostly portends the expected destruction of the Giants and former Buffalo coach Brian Daboll, likely through the air from Josh Allen. This could be an outlier Stefon Diggs day, the rare Gabe Davis explosion, it’s all on the table thanks to how bad the Giants are and what these markets tell you.

• Dallas (-2.5) at LA Chargers (51 O/U) — Top five most probable: Luke Schoonmaker under 0.5 TDs at an 89% probability, Dak Prescott under 0.5 TDs (rushing/etc) at an 84% probability, Gerald Everett under 0.5 TDs at a 78% probability, Justin Herbert over 1.5 passing TDs at a 58% probability, and Over 23.5 at a 56% probability.
  
  What this means: There are some alternate totals beneath the TD props, including Under 52 at a 56% probability and Under 52.5 at a 55% probability. That is more what I would have expected to see up top but it’s still a decent sign for a shootout that should safely get to the 50+ point range. Dak over 0.5 INTs also has a high 56% probability so it does seem like you can expect scoring on the Chargers side and maybe some struggle (and scoring in between) on the Dallas side.

Apologies to the fans of other sports but that NFL writeup likely takes up MORE than enough space for this email. The good news? If you want your favorite sports’ best bets, you can now go grab them for yourself whenever you please at Probly.com! Here’s the best way to use it:

1️⃣ Scroll through all of our available markets
2️⃣ Click the Probability number (or swipe right) to see what the markets are saying is the “true probability” of a bet to win as well as what the current best available odds are
3️⃣ If you can find odds aligned with the best odds out there and it has a positive PROBLY Score, take the bet! Taking +EV bets will win you more money than it loses you! If not, you can still take the bet but be careful because negative PROBLY Score bets over time can fully deplete your bankroll.

There we go guys, another one in the books. As always, I try to keep the journey as honest as possible since this is all in service of letting you guys know what goes into making Probly a product worth your attention and time. Some weeks are down, some are up, and all I (and all of us) can do is try to make the next week an up one.

Tell a friend to try out Probly.com and tell them that they get all this data and ways to get in good bets for FREE too! We need your support as a community as we march towards a key few months here at Probly so it is very much appreciated. Thanks as always to those who read all the way down here and good luck!