🔮 Predicting The Future With NFL Week 5 Markets

If you missed last week’s email, a reminder up top that the current features you see on Probly.com will remain free moving forward. PROBLY Scores, the ability to search by game or scroll endlessly, all of that will continue to be available as part of our core offering.

That said, we still remain on the grind to launch our subscription packages soon with advanced sorting capabilities and more as soon as possible. In this email, we’ll talk about that, an exciting new partnership, and, of course, this week’s NFL Week 5 Most Probable events! A lot to come so let’s get started with your Probly Email for October 6th, 2023! - @ChrisSpags

• 🔓 Probly Product Updates: New partnership and the neverending journey to make a business viable Probly

• 🏈 Predicting the future with the Most Probable events of NFL Week 5

First off: We’re excited to announce a new partnership here with the folks over at Birches Health. Probly as a company is focused on the consumer advocacy portion of sports betting that, frankly, is often barely on many other companies’ radar unless it makes them money. For us, it’s weaved into everything we do with the free access to data, the approach in trying to level the playing field with consumers, and my own personal desire to never give anyone bad information.

But we also recognize the growing issues of gambling addiction that can occur, particularly with a product as sticky as ours can be for customers. Through our partnership with Birches, anyone who comes to Probly can plug into Birches’ telehealth gambling addiction program — a fellow one-of-a-kind product that allows you to use your insurance to cover treatment of issues with a lot more focused treament than some of the national gambler hotlines provides.

We want to win your business, always. We also want to earn your trust as a “good guy” in a space full of bad actors and buffoons. Our partnership with Birches is the first step in that mission-oriented approach here at Probly.

Besides that, the grind continues on as I await our CTO providing a fully functional round of improvements that include our roll-out of subscription products and some changes to our market expiration logic (because we allow users to save bets to their profile — and they stay in our databases as a result — we need to change our filtering to display only the most recent version of bets with a data signal within the last hour). Both parts have, candidly, taken a lot longer than I would like since it’s holding up other improvements to our infrastructure we would like to make, as well as delaying any potential revenue. But that’s how it goes.

Once those improvements are made, I plan to ramp up our content flow on our various social and video platforms to ensure we’re presenting the correct experience for any customer acquisition content. In the mean time, I’ve continued to build up marketing/content assets for us that — as you can hopefully see from our new Intro video — look better by the day:

We remain in the hunt to find the right investment partner or partners before end of year to help us continue our growth trajectory so a lot of my days are banging down doors for intros and conversations. There are a lot of external providers we’d like to work with and a lot of support we could use on the tech side — as well as those neverending Amazon Web Services costs — so I’m really hoping we can get something going soon.

I’ve been told the phrase “If it were easy, anyone would do it” more times than I can count over the last 18 months. It is arguably as hard as it’s ever been right now but I and we will continue to push until Probly is everything we believe it can — and should — be.

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NFL Week 5 is upon us and, as always, that means it’s time to look through the most probable events in every game to see the potential future game flow.

And there is no game flow worse than every one with the New York Giants. With Daniel Jones pressured on 43% of his dropbacks, he is unable to accomplish anything and that seemingly includes mustering a competitive game at Miami. A Dolphins win tops Week 5 with an 83% probability as a current 10 point favorite.

Let’s go game by game as we enter our first wave of bye weeks and mix in some +EV bets via our PROBLY Score where applicable: Here’s your NFL Week 5 Most Probable:

• Jacksonville (+5.5) at Buffalo (49 O/U) —  Top five most probable: Bills win at a 68% probability (and a 1.1 PROBLY Score at -205 odds), Bills moneyline (1st quarter) at a 63% probability (and a 1.6 PROBLY Score at -165 odds), Under 51 at a 59% probability, over 46 at a 59% probability, and Calvin Ridley over 4.5 receptions at a 58% probability.
  
  What this means: It feels like a “playing from behind” game script for Jacksonville with the expected early lead for Buffalo and that would go hand-in-hand with Calvin Ridley being able to exceed his receptions total. Jacksonville has really underpeformed this year — don’t be deceived by their win over offensively hapless Atlanta — and it’s hard to expect that to change this week against a Buffalo team that seems to be firing on all cylinders.

• Houston (+1.5) at Atlanta (41.5 O/U) — Top five most probable: Over 18.5 (1st half) at a 58% probability, Dalton Schultz over 2.5 receptions at a 57% probability, Over 39.5 at a 57% probability, Texans +2.5 at a 56% probability (and a 4.4 PROBLY Score at -115 odds), and CJ Stroud under 1.5 passing TDs.
  
  What this means: It looks like a potential letdown spot for Houston and a potential bounceback game for the Falcons, likely in a one-possession game. CJ Stroud has played out of his mind so far this year but the Falcons’ pass D should be enough to keep him more limited than he has been so far. I’d still be intrigued by a minor Houston upset but it does look like a potential slog to get there.

• Carolina (+10) at Detroit (44 O/U) — Top five most probable: Lions win at a 77% probability, Lions moneyline (1st half) at a 73% probability, Lions moneyline (1st quarter) at a 70% probability, Under 47.5 at a 59% probability, and Under 47 at a 58% probability.
  
  What this means: Lions dominance narrative is in play and, as a result, it’s very hard to imagine how David Montgomery and his incredible usage at RB fails. Carolina is borderline hapless with Bryce Young at QB. After what Detroit did to a much better, adult-sized Jordan Love the last time they played, it really does feel like Bryce should be entirely engulfed by the D-line all game.

• NY Giants (+12) at Miami (47.5 O/U) — Top five most probable: Dolphins win at an 83% probability, Dolphins moneyline (1st quarter) at a 69% probability, Daniel Jones under 1.5 passing TDs at a 65% probability, Durham Smythe under 2.5 receptions at a 60% probability, and Under 52.5 at a 60% probability.
  
  What this means: Daniel Jones may actually throw a touchdown! Hooray! It all looks pretty bad for the Giants though with the market-perceive Dolphins dominance. The only faint hope for the Giants is that Under 52.5 alternate line; maybe that means the Giants score a little more than expected but, more likely, it just means the Dolphins put even more of a beatdown than the market over/under allows.

• New Orleans (Pick’Em) at New England (39.5 O/U) — Top five most probable: Mac Jones under 1.5 passing TDs at a 64% probability, Saints +3 at a 59% probability (and a 1.6 PROBLY Score at -140 odds), Under 42 at a 59% probability, Patriots +3 at 59% probability, and Over 38 at a 57% probability.
  
  What this means: It looks like another ugly one between these two, albeit with a chance of slightly more scoring than the 39.5 over/under. Everything seems to scream “defensive-minded field goal fest”, including both teams having a +3 amidst the top probabilities. Expect a slugfest but one that shouldn’t feature much outlier offensive performance. I also don’t hate the Pats win at a 54% probability and a 2.5 PROBLY Score at -112 odds.

• Baltimore (-4.5) at Pittsburgh (37.5 O/U) — Top five most probable: Lamar Jackson under 1.5 passing TDs at a 65% probability, Ravens win at a 65% probability (and a 6.7 PROBLY Score at 154 odds), Ravens moneyline (1st half) at a 62% probability, and Under 40.5 at a 58% probability.
  
  What this means: With Kenny Pickett either limited or with Mitch Trubisky starting, things look bad for the Steelers. But they don’t look much better for Baltimore either with the low over/under and not much expected in terms of outlier performance. The game may score slightly more than that market 37.5 points line as evidenced by the Under 40.5 making an appearance. But it’s hard to imagine anything more than a classic AFC North slog.

• Tennessee (-2.5) at Indianapolis (43 O/U) — Top five most probable: Ryan Tannehill under 1.5 passing TDs at a 65% probability, Colts +3 at a 59% probability, Over 40 at a 55% probability, Titans +2.5 (1st half) at a 57% probability, and Under 43.5 at a 57% probability.
  
  What this means: It looks like another competitive, one-score kind of game between a Titans D that is weak against the pass and good against the run and my beloved Anthony Richardson. I do not expect to see an outlier performance again by AR in fantasy, though I do think the Colts are live to win this one or at least hang in until the end based upon all this info. An ugly one seems afoot no matter what; maybe that opens up some Derrick Henry opportunity as a result.

• Cincinnati (-3) at Arizona (44.5 O/U) — Top five most probable: Joshua Dobbs under 1.5 passing TDs at a 64% probability, Joe Burrow under 0.5 INTs at a 63% probability, Under 48 at a 60% probability, Bengals moneyline (1st half) at a 58% probability, and Bengals win at a 58% probability.
  
  What this means: The Cardinals are more competitive than expected heading into the year and the Bengals are the exact opposite. As a result, there’s not really a dominance narrative here that you might expect for Cincinnati’s side. They still do have the first half moneyline and the win at a more likely than not probability. But this feels like a game where there could be more scoring than expected based on the Under 48 line in the top five. That type of situation likely portends the Cardinals being live to steal one more than the Bengals boat racing them.

• Philadelphia (-4) at LA Rams (50 O/U) —  Top five most probable: Eagles win at a 67% probability, Over 48 at a 59% probability, Eagles moneyline (1st quarter) at a 59% probability, Under 52 at a 55% probability, and Under 53 at a 57% probability.
  
  What this means: The Eagles should be able to take this one but it does not seem like it’ll be a simple journey to do it. The two alternate totals above the market over/under of 50 is a good flag to expect more production than not. The Rams have hung in against similarly tough teams and, thus far, the Eagles are not the Eagles of last year on either side of the ball. Playing a shootout here could be the move for fantasy.

• NY Jets (+2.5) at Denver (43.5 O/U) — Top five most probable: Marvin Mims under 2.5 receptions at a 60% probability, Under 46 at a 60% probability, Russell Wilson under 1.5 passing TDs at a 57% probability, Garrett Wilson over 4.5 receptions at a 58% probability, and Under 45.5 at a 58% probability.
  
  What this means: A slightly above market over/under makes an appearance here with that Under 45.5 line but nothing that’s too much of a high bar to indicate this could be come a shootout. That said, there’s nothing that spooks me off of the idea that this might actually be a good game for Zach Wilson! Denver has gotten strafed by every team against them, largely because they’re completely incapable of stopping plays with motion. The Jets don’t run a lot of those but they still should have more offensive success than they’ve had at any point this year in this matchup.

• Kansas City (-3.5) at Minnesota (53 O/U) — Top five most probable: Chiefs win at a 65% probability, Chiefs moneyline (1st half) at a 61% probability, Chiefs moneyline (1st quarter) at a 59% probability, Under 55.5 at a 59% probability, and Under 54 at a slightly lower 59% probability.
  
  What this means: There’s some big time shootout potential here, albeit one where the Chiefs seem likely to be in control throughout the game. The Vikings are ebbing the wrong way so far this year after a very lucky win total last season. The Chiefs D has been good this year so maybe the Vikings hang around with a lucky defensive score to make these alternate totals make sense. If I had to choose a path, I think the Chiefs put up a lot of points, the Vikings put up more than expected but without actually doing anything impressive, and the Chiefs win without much of a sweat.

• Dallas (+3.5) at San Francisco (45 O/U) — Top five most probable: Niners win at a 65% probability (and a 4.8 PROBLY Score at -166 odds), Niners moneyline (1st half) at a 61% probability (and a 2.5 PROBLY Score at -146 odds), Over 42 at a 60% probability, Niners moneyline (1st quarter) at a 59% probability, and Under 47.5 at a 57% probability.
  
  What this means: This Sunday Night Football matchup looks like a lot less competitive game based on these markets than the primary one. The Niners D has shown some more weaknesses this year, particularly versus the run game. But they are so much more aggressive and, in my opinion, so much better coached that it makes sense that they should be able to take control and eke out a win at the end at home. I wouldn’t expect a blowout going the Niners’ way but it really does look like they should be able to control this one.

• Green Bay (+1) at Las Vegas (44.5 O/U) — Top five most probable: Raiders +3 at a 60% probability (and a 4.1 PROBLY Score at -135 odds), Packers +3 at a 59% probability, Over 42 at a 59% probability, Under 46 at a 58% probability, Under 47 at a 57% probability.
  
  What this means: Monday Night Football looks very likely to be a one possession game with a little more scoring than the market over/under and I like how that sounds. Jordan Love should be in a good situation against a Raiders team that does not generate pressure at a high enough rate to bring out the Mr. Hyde to his Good QB Dr. Jekyll. The two +3 outcomes in the top five mean it’s likely a tight game down the stretch, which could skew to more of a solid but non-shootout game. I’d take the Packers to win.

Apologies to the fans of other sports but that NFL writeup likely takes up MORE than enough space for this email. The good news? If you want your favorite sports’ best bets, you can now go grab them for yourself whenever you please at Probly.com! Here’s the best way to use it:

1️⃣ Scroll through all of our available markets
2️⃣ Click the Probability number (or swipe right) to see what the markets are saying is the “true probability” of a bet to win as well as what the current best available odds are
3️⃣ If you can find odds aligned with the best odds out there and it has a positive PROBLY Score, take the bet! Taking +EV bets will win you more money than it loses you! If not, you can still take the bet but be careful because negative PROBLY Score bets over time can fully deplete your bankroll.

There we go guys, another one in the books. There’s a lot going on but putting this email together is one of the things I enjoy most every week because of the insights these markets provide. Probly is a tool to get in good bets but it’s also an informational tool to understand the game and range of outcomes better, whether it be for DraftKings/FanDuel DFS, your season-long league, or just to impress your friends with your prognostication.

Tell a friend to try out Probly.com and tell them that they get all this data and ways to get in good bets for FREE too! The more the merrier! Thanks as always to the folks who read all the way down there, good luck in your gambling pursuits this weekend, and I’ll see you guys next week!