🔓NFL Week 3's Most Probable Bets

It's NFL Week 3 and there are some helpful insights to be extracted from our data at Probly. On Thursday Night Football, we were able to use the most probable markets to determine how that game would go with a low scoring Browns-dominant win. Other than the Steelers not trailing at halftime, it all went according to plan.

So let's go into the Probly markets for each game and try to read the tea leaves on what the most probable and least probable bets could mean for the rest of the NFL Week 3 games! - @ChrisSpags

• NFL Week 3's most probable (and least probable) bets from every game and what they could mean for how the game goes

Probly will soon provide live sportsbook comparisons for these true probabilities that will be the most obvious way to use our data to make money. That's the goal: To make this as simple and intuitive as possible.Until we have that component live though, the best way to use this info I'm going to provide you: Use the Most Probable bets to churn through sportsbook bonuses or have them and the least probable event tell you the story for a game and plan your daily fantasy or overall betting portfolio around it. You could try a parlay of the most probable events as well!

• Rams @ Cardinals - The most probable bets include a Rams win (62.6% probability) but the least probable includes the Rams -6 in the first half (36.2% probability). The markets seem to indicate the Rams should win safely with a Rams blowout roughly as likely as a Cardinals win (37.4% probability).

• Falcons @ Seahawks - The most probable markets include the Falcons +3.5 (1st half) 64.8% probability and Falcons +3.5 for the game another of the most probable outcomes, a 61.8% probability. The game only has a 42 point over/under so it may not be the highest scoring but it should be competitive until the end.

• Raiders @ Titans - The Raiders +3 (1st half) and the Titans +5 for the game are the game's two most probable markets with a 64.5% and 63% probability, respectively. The game going over 24.5 points in the 1st half is one of the game's Least Probable events with a 37.5% probability. The game could be a bit of a slog despite a 45.5 over/under.

• Chiefs @ Colts - The Chiefs winning is the Most Probable event with a 67.7% likelihood. The second most probable is Chiefs/Colts o22 (1st half) and the third is Chiefs/Colts o22.5 (1st half) with 64.2% and 63% probabilities each. Expect a Chiefs cakewalk and potentially a lot of points hung by Mahomes and the boys as things continue to run bad for Matt Ryan.

• Packers @ Bucs - Tampa Bay u24.5 pts is one of the most probable events with a 63.2% likelihood while the most likely outcome is Packers +4 (1st half) with a 66.1% chance. The teams scoring over 10 pts in the 1st quarter is also one of the least probable events with a 37.7% probability. It could be an ugly national game with two aging QBs with questionable supporting casts.

• Texans @ Bears - The most probable markets are Bears +0.5 (1st quarter) and Bears +2.5 (1st half) with 65.7% and 64.6% probabilities. But Bears -4 (1st half) is one of the least probable with a 37.4% probability. With a 39 point over/under, expect a close but low scoring affair between two teams who do not play very aggressively.

• Lions @ Vikings - A Vikings win is one of the week's most probable events with a 68.1% probability. Same for the Vikings 1st half moneyline, a 64.8% probability. Pair that with the low likelihood of Lions/Vikings going u23 pts for the 1st half, a 37.7% probability and just a 38.9% chance of Vikings -8.5 for the game and it seems likely the Vikings win comfortably but with the Lions hanging in until the end in possibly a big time shootout given the game's 52.5 point over/under.

• Bengals @ Jets - A Bengals win is one of the week's most likely outcomes with a 69.1% probability. They're also expected to be in the lead by halftime with a 65.4% probability. Expect the Bengals to get in command early and possibly boat race the Jets as a 6 point favorite on the road.

• Saints @ Panthers - The Saints +3 (1st half) is the game's most probable outcome, a 66.9% probability. But the Panthers +5 for the game is surprisingly a high probability as well with a 62.1% chance. With a 41.5 over/under, this game should be low scoring but competitive. Maybe a day for Alvin Kamara and Christian McCaffrey to rack up checkdown passes?

• Bills @ Dolphins - Bills +0.5 (1st quarter) and a Bills win are the game's two highest probability events with 65.3% and 65.1% probabilities. The Dolphins covering +1.5 is one of the game's least likely outcomes with a 37.3% probability. Maybe Tua can throw the Dolphins into the game again but it does seem like the Bills should win this one safely.

• Ravens @ Patriots - Patriots +4 (1st half) is one of the most likely outcomes in the game, a 63% probability. Same for Patriots +5 for the game, a 61.5% probability. It seems like there's a good chance the Pats make the Ravens play their kind of game and turn this into more of a rock fight than Lamar Jackson deserves given how he's started the year.

• Eagles @ Commanders - Despite the road game, the Eagles winning outright is the week's most likely event with a 69.8% probability. The Eagles are also expected to be winning by halftime, a 65.6% probability. Commanders -0.5 (1st quarter) is one of the game's least likely outcomes, a 31.8% chance. It's possible the Commanders hang in this one but the Eagles should cruise overall.

• 49ers @ Broncos - Sunday Night Football features the none-too-exciting return to starter life for Jimmy Garoppolo but it shows his value as well. The Niners +3.5 (1st half) is the game's most likely outcome, a 66.1% probability. There's also a 62.5% chance the Niners score o0.5 points in the first quarter. It seems like you can expect the bare minimum of competency from the Niners in this post-Trey Lance world in a game that should be competitive.

• Cowboys @ Giants - Giants +3 (1st half) is the game's most likely outcome, a 65% probability. But Cowboys +3.5 (1st half) is right behind it with a 64.4% probability. It's similar for the game with Cowboys -3 and Giants -3.5 two of the game's least likely outcomes with 37.6% and 37.9% probabilities. Despite the lack of talent for both teams currently, it could come down to the last drive in this game even if it's low scoring due to the 39 point over/under.

Hopefully you guys are starting to get what we're doing with Probly — with a whole lot more heading your way in the coming weeks. Thanks for reading and we wish you the best of luck with your NFL Week 3 endeavors!