NFL Week 17 Is Here! Let's Find Some Betting Insights 🕵️

New Year’s is upon us but the sports world remains as fast and furious as the repetitive concepts of family in the film of the same name. So here we are!

The good news amidst a stressful but productive week as we head into Q1…Our bet videos have been CRUSHING. Here’s how it’s been going (along with our very impressive .2 unit win on yesterday’s void-filled NBA card).

Despite a mediocre NFL Week 16 — George Pickens smashing aside — we’re +23.4 units since December 7th (when I aggressively started tracking everything I “tout”) across all our daily Best Bets videos on the @ProblyApp YouTube. We know that showing the work is the key thing for us to get in subs and, so far, that meant a record traffic day yesterday as well as the most new signups we’ve had in a day after we had our most views on a TikTok video yet.

We need to keep the momentum going to keep Probly alive and building through Q1 so if you have the means and want to bet AND win, use promo code FIRST to 50% off at Probly.com/subscribe. That means you can get one month of pre-game data for $9.99/month or live in-game data for $24.99/month, and it gets EVEN CHEAPER if you buy a year. It’ll work and build your winnings, exponentially more in less efficient sports than NFL.

If you want more free stuff first, the Week 17 best bets video is below followed by our usual run through Week 17’s Most Probable markets and a quick product update. So let’s get to it with your Probly Email, our last of the year, for December 29th, 2023! - @ChrisSpags

• 🔮 Predicting the future with the Most Probable events of NFL Week 17

• 🔓 Probly Product Updates: Feeling Good, Needing Money

After beating up on them a lot earlier in the year, people seem to love Josh Allen and the Bills again with Allen surging in MVP markets as the Bills make a run to the playoffs.

This week, that extends to our weekly Most Likely award as a Bills win clocks in on top of the list with an 87% probability that should be roughly the highest expected win probability of the year (at 87.4% it’s a little higher than the Eagles were last week). Do they come through in perhaps Bill Belichick’s final Pats matchup against them? Makes you think.

Now let’s get into the game-by-game breakdown of Most Probable events along with any additional +EV bets we see along the way. You can also look at all this info for yourself at Probly.com/search, just filter by NFL and you’ll see each game and its currently available markets!

• Detroit (+5.5) at Dallas (52 O/U) — Top five most probable: Dallas moneyline (1st quarter) at a 63% probability, Lions +8.5 at a 62% probability, Over 49 at a 59% probability, Over 9.5 (1st quarter) at a 57% probability, and Under 54 at a 57% probability.
  
  What this means: I, like much of the best ball/fantasy football world, am relying GREATLY on this game for my DraftKings Milly Maker finalist team. And these lines seem like great news in terms of potential for scoring output with a lot of overs as well as that high-bar over/under of Under 54. The bad news is the Lions seem at risk to get dusted with that extra Lions +8.5 line. That could mean a good passing game script, particularly since Amon-Ra St. Brown over 80.5 rec yards is at a 56% probability (and a 5.3 PROBLY Score at -115 odds). All systems go for a fun one on Saturday night.

• Arizona (+11.5) at Philadelphia (48 O/U) — Top five most probable: Eagles win at an 82% probability, Rondale Moore under 0.5 TDs at a 78% probability, Greg Dortch over 2.5 receptions at a 60% probability, Cardinals +9.5 (1st half) at a 59% probability, and Kenneth Gainwell under 1.5 receptions at a 57% probability.
  
  What this means: It does seem like we should safely expect an Eagles win and, likely, one where things are getting close to out of hand in the 1st half. The Eagles remain hopeful to secure a bye with the window slightly opened up after the Niners’ loss to the Ravens last week so they’ll obviously be a full go. But, if the game does get out of hand quickly, it is possible to see stars sit early. Jalen Hurts under 249.5 passing yards at a 56% probability (and a 4.2 PROBLY Score at -115 odds) make me think that could be the case rather than one with four quarters of full effort.

• New Orleans (+3) at Tampa Bay (42 O/U) — Top five most probable: Kendre Miller under 0.5 TDs at an 89% probability, Chris Godwin under 0.5 TDs at a 75% probability, Saints +4 (1st half) at a 63% probability, Bucs +1.5 (1st half) at a 63% probability, and AT Perry under 1.5 receptions at a 61% probability.
  
  What this means: There’s not a lot to extrapolate here besides the expectation of a competitive game that keeps the Saints within one score throughout the first half. We have Saints +4 and Derek Carr under 1.5 passing TDs at a 60 and 59% probability right outside the top five so it seems like perhaps a bit of a hedge on the Saints’ market line as well as an expectation of less production overall. Nothing here screams shootout.

• LA Rams (-5.5) at NY Giants (43.5 O/U) — Top five most probable: Tyrod Taylor under 0.5 TDs (rush/rec) at an 81% probability, Wan’Dale Robinson under 0.5 TDs at a 78% probability, Tyler Higbee under 0.5 TDs at a 77% probability, Demarcus Robinson under 0.5 TDs at a 74% probability, and Tyrod Taylor over 0.5 passing TDs at a 70% probability.
  
  What this means: We don’t usually see this many “no” touchdown props up top, though it may speak to the concentration of both offenses with Puka/Kupp/Kyren on the Rams’ side and Saquon/Waller/Slayton on the Giants’ side. We do have a high-bar over/under of Under 46.5 at a 59% probability just outside the top five as well as an Over 19.5 (1st half) at a 63% probability so there could really be a shot at increased production here with two iffy defenses.

• Miami (+3) at Baltimore (47 O/U) — Top five most probable: Durham Smythe under 0.5 TDs at an 83% probability, Odell Beckham under 0.5 TDs at a 78% probability, Ravens -1.5 at a 59% probability, Over 43.5 at a 59% probability, and Ravens -2 at a 58% probability.
  
  What this means: This looks like less of a shootout game than we might have expected previewing the schedule in the offseason. It does seem like there should be a competitive game given the hedging on the Ravens’ market -3 line but the low-bar over/under does make it seem like this could skew a bit more defensively. I still wouldn’t stake my life on that but if you compare this top five to Dallas’s, there’s a marked difference in expected scoring potential.

• Atlanta (+2.5) at Chicago (38 O/U) — Top five most probable: Taylor Heinicke over 0.5 passing TDs at a 69% probability, Taylor Heinicke under 1.5 passing TDs at a 69% probability, Over 16 (1st half) at a 63% probability, Falcons +5 at a 62% probability, Falcons +5.5 at a 59% probability.
  
  What this means: It seems like the Falcons should be expected to throw here given that hedging on the market’s Falcons +2.5 line as well as the TD line for Heinicke seemingly reflecting both a floor and a ceiling for pass game production. This could mean early Bears success followed by the Falcons attempting to dig out on the back of their backup QB.

• Las Vegas (+3.5) at Indianapolis (42.5 O/U) — Top five most probable: Aidan O’Connell under 0.5 TDs (rush/rec) at a 90% probability, Austin Hooper under 0.5 TDs at an 83% probability, Josh Downs under 0.5 TDs at a 75% probability, Over 19.5 (1st half) at a 61% probability, and Alec Pierce under 2.5 receptions at a 60% probability.
  
  What this means: This doesn’t look like a particularly fun game based on these markets, though at least it does seem like the first half should safely be able to get away from the 3-0 slog the Raiders and Vikings played a few weeks ago. The Raiders have won ugly, including O’Connell not throwing after the first quarter during their Chiefs upset last week, so it’s hard to expect a lot to love here even if there should be some amount of production.

• New England (+14) at Buffalo (40 O/U) — Top five most probable: Trent Sherfield under 0.5 TDs at an 89% probability, Bailey Zappe under 1.5 passing TDs at a 69% probability, Patriots +16.5 at a 58% probability, Bills -11.5 at a 57% probability, and Over 38 at a 57% probability.
  
  What this means: It does seem like an absolute boat race here for Buffalo with even a hedge against the lofty +14 line. Bailey Zappe having a 1.5 passing TD market means that he should be able to safely get at least one score through the air but it’s not like there’s a high-bar over/under to say this game ends up meaningfully competitive. It also doesn’t seem like a ton of love for Buffalo production offensively so maybe the defense pulls the load here? For what it’s worth, there is a Stefon Diggs over 5.5 receptions line at a 56% probability so maybe he finally gets going a little.

• Carolina (+6) at Jacksonville (38 O/U) — Top five most probable: Tommy Tremble under 0.5 TDs at an 88% probability, D’Ernest Johnson under 0.5 TDs at an 84% probability, Adam Thielen under 0.5 TDs at a 79% probability, Jaguars win at a 71% probability, and Jaguars moneyline (1st quarter) at a 64% probability.
  
  What this means: How far Adam Thielen has fallen from when people thought he’d be a best ball league winner. Either way, this does seem like a safe expectation of a Jaguars win despite the Panthers not tanking for any particular reason and looking somewhat improved in recent weeks. I still like the Bryce Young bets I highlighted in the Week 17 Best Bets video but it doesn’t seem like there should be any expectation of the Panthers to keep this competitive or steal one.

• San Francisco (-13) at Washington (50 O/U) — Top five most probable: Niners win at an 86% probability, Jauan Jennings under 0.5 TDs at an 83% probability, Niners moneyline (1st half) at a 77% probability, Jacoby Brissett under 1.5 TDs at a 66% probability, and Over 37 at a 59% probability.
  
  What this means: There’s nothing here screaming that the Niners get out to a dominant early lead — like you could extrapolate from Cardinals-Eagles as an example — and there’s nothing screaming that the Commanders keep things competitive. With how bad the Commanders’ defense has been, I would still err on expecting an effortless win by the end of it all for San Francisco. The question is if they push their guys to the limit with the bye nearly secured. It’s a key question for people playing — or in my case, going against — Christian McCaffrey this weekend. It seems safe to expect production from him…outlier production may be elusive though.

• Tennessee (+4) at Houston (44 O/U) — Top five most probable: Will Levis under 0.5 TDs (rush/rec) at an 87% probability, Will Levis under 1.5 passing TDs at a 68% probability, Texans win at a 66% probability, CJ Stroud under 0.5 INTs at a 64% probability, and Texans -1.5 at a 62% probability.
  
  What this means: It seems like good things to expect here after CJ Stroud returns from a particularly bad concussion with a shot at the playoffs still on the line. He returns to a matchup against an iffy Tennessee pass defense, albeit one that can cause some pressure up front. That said, we do have hedges on the market’s Houston -4 line so perhaps Stroud is not going to be quite at the peak of his powers after two games out with the brain injury. I’d still expect the Houston win here but it could be uglier than we’d like to see.

• Pittsburgh (+3.5) at Seattle (40.5 O/U) — Top five most probable: Jake Bobo under 0.5 TDs at an 89% probability, Pat Freiermuth under 0.5 TDs at an 82% probability, Mason Rudolph under 1.5 passing TDs at a 66% probability, DK Metcalf under 0.5 TDs at a 65% probability, and Seahawks win at a 63% probability.
  
  What this means: Nothing here screams shootout or even particularly fun game, though at least we can expect Mason Rudolph to have some amount of success through the air after George Pickens made him look viable last week. It seems like there should be some expectation of a competitive game that stays within one possession by the end of it all.

• Cincinnati (+7) at Kansas City (44 O/U) — Top five most probable: Justin Watson under 0.5 TDs at an 83% probability, Under 24.5 (1st half) at a 64% probability, Joe Mixon over 2.5 receptions at a 60% probability, Jake Browning under 1.5 passing TDs at a 59% probability, and Under 46.5 at a 59% probability.
  
  What this means: It seems like this could be more competitive than the 7-point spread may indicate, particularly in terms of the Bengals contributing more in the way of scoring. The Chiefs sound like they are desperately trying to get things right now that they’ve played themselves out of the bye — Travis Kelce took a break from pop star wooing to say as much on his podcast — but they’ve shown some weaknesses on both sides of the ball lately. That might be enough to make this one feisty.

• LA Chargers (+3.5) at Denver (36.5 O/U) — Top five most probable: Easton Stick under 1.5 passing TDs at a 69% probability, Broncos +0.5 (1st half) at a 65% probability, Broncos -1 at a 61% probability, Chargers +4 (1st half) at a 61% probability, and Over 6.5 (1st quarter) at a 61% probability.
  
  What this means: It looks like an ugly one in the battle between Easton Stick and Jarrett Stidham with Russell Wilson gleefully collecting guaranteed money on the sideline. Both defenses stink more than not and both QBs have shown something of a ceiling so maybe there ends up being a little more fun in this game than the total and talent would indicate. I’m personally rooting for Jerry Jeudy in this one so let’s hope he gets going if nothing else.

• Green Bay (+1) at Minnesota (43.5 O/U) — Top five most probable: Johnny Mundt under 0.5 TDs at an 88% probability, Packers +0.5 (1st quarter) at a 60% probability, Vikings +3 at a 60% probability, Packers +3 at a 58% probability, and Vikings +2.5 (1st half) at a 58% probability.
  
  What this means: Sunday Night Football’s AFC North rivalry game which has vague whiffs of playoff relevance seems like another one to expect competition — and maybe a lack of production. No high-bar over/unders, no noteworthy marks for passing production…it seems more likely to play under than substantially over. The Packers’ defense is bad though and the Vikings can get beaten amidst their blitz-heavy approach so maybe this does end differently despite two banged up squads.

Apologies to the fans of other sports but that NFL writeup likely takes up MORE than enough space for this email. The good news? If you want your favorite sports’ best bets, you can now go grab them for yourself whenever you please at Probly.com! Here’s the best way to use it:

1️⃣ Scroll through all of our available markets
2️⃣ Click the Probability number (or swipe right) to see what the markets are saying is the “true probability” of a bet to win as well as what the current best available odds are. If you’re a paid member, simply sort by Most Profitable to filter out all PROBLY Scores under zero.
3️⃣ If you can find odds aligned with the best odds out there and it has a positive PROBLY Score (especially over a 2.0), take the bet! Taking +EV bets will win you more money than it loses you! If not, you can still take the bet but be careful because negative PROBLY Score bets over time can fully deplete your bankroll.

I’ve hinted at it enough times but we are coming up on a very crucial time period for Probly for a few reasons. A best ball win on DraftKings fo me would be huge in terms of being able to extend this growth and development process for Probly in perpetuity while also giving some personal buffer after the costs it’s taken to get this product out (and not helped by my old, tens of thousands of dollars owing friends at Football Outsiders).

We have bills coming due for both our OddsJam data feed as well as Amazon Web Services invoices that need to be hashed out by mid-January so the pressure is on to ensure we can keep building things here while giving the app enough chance to find its audience, specifically the ones who’ll pay for it.

It’s particularly stressful for me because I feel like we’re really starting to understand the market after spending so much time in the weeds trying to get this out and make sure this works correctly. I’ve researched competitors, spent hundreds of hours watching content — I get our value proposition and also hurdles for adoption now more than ever.

And I think we can see that in some of the good results we’ve had lately. We’re winning regularly in our content, as much as or more than anyone in the industry. We had our most viewed TikTok ever yesterday. Coincidentally, we had our most website visitors in a single day ever yesterday (which also might be tied to a semi-popular tweet I posted about Probly). We had our most signups in a single day yesterday as well. So it really does feel like the dots are starting to connect in a way that we need to see through to fruition.

We do still hope to have the App Store submission done soon; some hurdles with dumb things around the status bar coloring and the complex in-app purchase system have kept us from getting that over to Apple. We also have a really aggressive product roadmap for 2024, including things like a PrizePicks/Underdog optimizer, notifications, and adjustments to our flow to make the product even simpler and more robust for you guys.

It’s a really delicate time right now as we try to make this into a real, viable company. So if you, as a person who has read all the way down these 3,000ish words so far, sign up now at Probly.com/subscribe and use promo code FIRST to get 50% off, it is HUGELY appreciated. (And same if you are or know an investor who’s actually investing!)

We want to make a difference. We feel it starting as we get bits more traction. I will do anything I can to see it through to its optimal conclusion.

If you guys encounter any issues not covered here or want to provide feedback, you can email me [email protected].

A lot in this final email of 2023 but, as you guys hopefully know by now, this email and my approach to life is nothing but candor. If you are placing bets and not using Probly data to find the best bets and correct odds to take to ensure success, you are doing yourself a disservice. I believe that more strongly than ever.

As always, thanks to all of you who read all the way down here, especially if you’ve done so all calendar year. Check out our daily Mon-Fri content on the @ProblyApp YouTube, TikTok and IG (likely off for New Year’s but on the grind besides that with videos typically out before 10am). Pay for a subscription if you can! And happy new year to you and yours! Good luck now and in 2024!