🏈 Which NFL Games Will Thrive In Week 13?

Another week here at Probly and you guys know the deal. Shout out to all of you who took advantage of our Black Friday deal but now we’re back to our usual 40% off with promo code FIRST at probly.com/subscribe. The good news is, with that promo, you can get our pre-game data for under $10/month on a yearly deal or $12 for just the first month. Get in the mix soon because, once we launch affiliate programs, the base discount is going to be just 10% off.

It’s been a long week creating content (and tracking all the results) for the Probly YouTube channel as well as TikTok and Instagram so let’s strap in to do some writing! And now, let’s get started with your Probly Email for December 1st, 2023! - @ChrisSpags

• 🔓 Probly Product Updates: Adapting The Sales Pitch

• 🔮 Predicting the future with the Most Probable events of NFL Week 12

This week has been a really busy one for me between continuing to trying to find funding for Probly, beginning a more robust content cycle (as well as tracking our results from said content nightly), and our usual daily meetings along with everything else I have to juggle between external convos, some additional Stokastic content this week as well as my daily fantasy football streams for Splash Play, and home life.

It’s an interesting balance as a founder when you have so much conviction in what you’ve created and what it can be but you need to ignore that to some respect to begin the glacial process of building a real business and community here (which you guys on this email have seen weekly for over a year now). I also have to adapt how I promote Probly within content as we attempt to get people to take the leap from just following picks to actually engaging with and ideally subscribing to the app in addition to our various channels. What works? What doesn’t work? What isn’t working because of just starting this out and what isn’t working because it will never work?

It is a lot to juggle, even for someone like me who has been down this road as an entrepreneur before as well as for helping build up and refocus other companies. But I continue to believe that the hardest part is showing up and doing it everyday so that’s where my focus is with the hope that we continue to do that while we start to see growth where we need to.

We’ve also had to deal with a decently sized headache with our CTO’s laptop crapping out and awaiting Apple Store to get that one. There are a few minor fixes (specifically related to how we display or don’t display props based upon market movement) as well as a few more larger items we need to get to work on that make losing a week a huge pain. But it’s a lot less of a pain with things running mostly smoothly with the app now than it would have been, say, a month ago.

I feel good about where we are, I feel good about our data and my personal process daily to continue to build this up. I also feel good about some potential affiliates we’re currently lining up to help us get this product out there more with meaningful media integrations. It’s coming together the way that we need it to for Probly but the amount of elbow grease is a lot more than it may look like from the outside.

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There’s one game that seems particularly likely to be an absolute dusting. And it’s not a surprise it comes at the hands of the Commanders’ inept defense.

A Dolphins win comes with a 78% probability with them as 10 point favorites on the road at Washington. There is a chasm in offensive talent versus defensive talent in this matchup — to the point it would not shock me to see this as Tyreek Hill’s “MVP game” putting up 200 yards — but obviously we know the volatility to that. The main thing is to expect it to be a very low likelihood of a Commanders upset.

Also, to give you folks who just want +EV bets a leg-up, here’s a short form video that I’ll cut every Friday for the rest of the season summing up some of the current best bets for the week:

Subscribe to that Probly YouTube! Now let’s get to the Week 13 Most Probable bets (and I’ll still highlight any additonal +EV bets we see along the way):

• Miami (-10) at Washington (49.5 O/U) —  Top five most probable: Dolphins win at a 78% probability, Curtis Samuel under 0.5 TDs at a 75% probability, John Bates over 0.5 receptions at a 65% probability, Tyreek Hill under 7.5 receptions at a 57% probability, and Under 51.5 at a 55% probability.
  
  What this means: A high-bar over/under — which if you’re new to the email, means a line in the Most Probable that is a hedge against the market line, i.e. Under 51.5 when the market line is 49.5 — means good things for both sides here. A competitive game means production for both sides while the Dolphins having a shot to drive the over means potential ceiling-level production for them. Sam Howell will continue to drop back all game, making this one of the most fun fantasy games to target this year.

• Indianapolis (-1) at Tennessee (42.5 O/U) —  Top five most probable: Alec Pierce under 0.5 TDs at an 81% probability, Colts +3 at a 60% probability, Titans +3.5 at a 58% probability, Under 44.5 at a 56% probability, and Colts +2.5 at a 56% probability.
  
  What this means: There’s a few hedges there on the Colts that could indicate a very spry effort by Tennessee here. Then you also see that high-bar over/under at Under 44.5 and this game reminds me a lot of last week’s Colts-Bucs game. You have a sieve pass defense in Tennessee and one that gives up a ton of explosive plays in Indianapolis. I don’t know that this game goes nuts — much like Bucs/Colts didn’t — but there could be a few outlier performances potentially at low ownership. A good game to mini-stack without your QB, perhaps.

• Atlanta (-2) at NY Jets (33.5 O/U) —  Top five most probable: Jeremy Ruckert under 0.5 TDs at a 90% probability, Falcons +0.5 (1st quarter) at a 65% probability (and a 3.7 PROBLY Score at -170 odds), Desmond Ridder over 0.5 passing TDs at a 63% probability, Jets +4.5 at a 59% probability, Jets +0.5 (1st quarter) at a 61% probability.
  
  What this means: It’s always a surprise to see a positive bet for Desmond Ridder, so that’s noteworthy. Besides that, it doesn’t seem like there’s a ton to infer perhaps besides a slow start in that first quarter with both sides having +0.5 bets. That screams out some kind of 3-3 or 0-0 iffy start. The Jets +4.5 does seem like a bit of a hedge on this actually being a competitive game for the Jets. It’s hard to see Atlanta running away with this one but it’s entirely possible the Jets just get nothing going offensively.

• LA Chargers (-5.5) at New England (40 O/U) —  Top five most probable: Chargers win at a 70% probability, Chargers moneyline (1st quarter) at a 61% probability, Patriots +7.5 at a 58% probability, Chargers -3.5 at a 57% probability, and Under 7.5 (1st quarter) at a 57% probability.
  
  What this means: It is rare to see hedges on both sides of the line with Pats +7.5 and Chargers -3.5 versus the market Chargers -5.5 line. That’s a shocking lack of uncertainty as to which way this game should go, particularly since the Patriots are unequivocally BAD based on how this season has gone. The Pats should be within range by end of the game either way, whether that be through their own success or, more likely, abject failure by the Chargers once more. The Chargers should win but this could be a mess.

• Detroit (-4) at New Orleans (47 O/U) —  Top five most probable: Brock Wright under 0.5 TDs at an 89% probability, Lynn Bowden under 0.5 TDs at a 77% probability, Lions -1.5 at a 60% probability, Under 47.5 at a 58% probability, and Saints +6.5 at a 57% probability.
  
  What this means: Just when I say it’s rare to find hedges on both sides of the line among the most probable, we get it in two straight games. You do see what is technically a high-bar over/under with that Under 47.5 line and that could be interesting given how we have seen the Lions struggle on both sides of the ball in recent weeks. This game has some interesting shootout potential and it doesn’t seem crazy to target a Saints win despite them playing potentially down a few lead pass catchers.

• Denver (+3) at Houston (47.5 O/U) —  Top five most probable: Lil’Jordan Humphrey under 0.5 TDs at an 88% probability, Texans win at a 61% probability, CJ Stroud over 1.5 passing TDs at a 58% probability, Texans -2.5 at a 58% probability, and Broncos over 9.5 (1st half) at a 56% probability.
  
  What this means: I was really hoping to see a high-bar over/under here since this game really feels like it has shootout potential. But the Stroud over 1.5 passing TDs does say the main part: The Texans should throw all over Denver. It’s interesting to see a very slight hedge on the Texans with that -2.5 line, indicating that this should be close enough by the end of it all. Denver’s defense is not “good” but they have gotten favorable results lately, particularly in turnovers. It could be a sloppy Houston win that keeps this one within a field goal.

• Arizona (+6.5) at Pittsburgh (41 O/U) —  Top five most probable: Steelers win at a 71% probability, James Conner under 0.5 TDs at a 66% probability, Steelers -2 at a 65% probability, Steelers moneyline (1st quarter) at a 64% probability, and Steelers -3 at a 60% probability.
  
  What this means: Is the tank on for Arizona? This line feels huge with how these teams have played, particularly since Kyler Murray’s return. But with Arizona listing an ungodly amount of players on their injury report, it does seem like we could be cruising towards their self-imposed NFL Draft tanking destruction. That said, we have enough hedges on a Steelers win by a field goal that we could see it be competitive for one more week. It’s also worth pointing out, at #7 in the Most Probable for this game is an Under 44 high-bar over/under line. So perhaps we see a bit of scoring here before to keep this one tight until the Steelers win once more.

• Carolina (+5.5) at Tampa Bay (36.5 O/U) — Top five most probable: Ian Thomas under 0.5 TDs at an 88% probability, Bryce Young over 0.5 passing TDs at a 68% probability, Panthers +8 at a 62% probability, Chris Godwin over 4.5 receptions at a 56% probability, and Bucs -2.5 (1st half) at a 56% probability.
  
  What this means: Another low total game without much to look forward to beyond that after Carolina has already fired new coach Frank Reich. It’s a good sign that Bryce Young throwing a TD has an over but this isn’t exactly the 1.5 passing TD line we saw for CJ Stroud. This seems like a potential two-score loss for Carolina and perhaps the Chris Godwin favorable prop line — which we have not seen often this year — means he’s got a meaningful role for once in putting distance between the teams.

• San Francisco (-3) at Philadelphia (48 O/U) —  Top five most probable: Charlie Woerner under 0.5 TDs at a 90% probability, Eagles +3.5 (1st half) at a 60% probability, Eagles +5.5 at a 60% probability, Under 48.5 at a 57% probability, and Under 49 at a slightly lower 57% probability.
  
  What this means: Two high-bar over/unders is an interesting thing to see after we saw a similar situation last week with a Bills-Eagles game that also went nuts. These are two mostly defensively sound teams — some struggles for the Philly secondary aside — but it does seem like there’s more concern from the markets for the Eagles’ side of the equation than the San Francisco one. With two great offenses but some noteworthy errors from Jalen Hurts this year, it seems like we may want to expect a playoff caliber game with more offense and perhaps a fatal mistake by Philly at some point.

• Cleveland (+3.5) at LA Rams (40.5 O/U) —  Top five most probable: Rams win at a 66% probability, Rams moneyline (1st half) at a 62% probability, Rams -1 at a 62% probability, Rams -1.5 at a 61% probability, and Rams -2.5 at a 59% probability.
  
  What this means: What a truly odd set of lines with the combination of a dominance narrative for the Rams plus a hedge on their market spread. There is certainly a lot of confidence in a Rams win, but one that might be even lower than a one field goal margin — let alone the market’s Rams -3.5. The Browns’ defense is a world beater so a field goal fest with a sporadic TD or two could be in order here.

• Kansas City (-6) at Green Bay (42.5 O/U) —  Top five most probable: Chiefs moneyline (1st half) at a 66% probability, Jordan Love under 1.5 passing TDs at a 57% probability, Chiefs -4 at a 57% probability, Over 40.5 at a 56% probability, and Under 44 at a 55% probability.
  
  What this means: For what it’s worth, the win probability for KC should lead this all at roughly 70% but it looks like the markets are down as I write this due to a line movement. It looks like there could be a shot at the Packers keeping this Sunday Night Football game competitive, albeit not from an outlier day through the air from Jordan Love necessarily. You have the high-bar over/under as well as a solid floor hedge with the Over 40.5 line. This seems like a game where Green Bay fights hard at home before ultimately yielding to the Super Bowl contender with the good defense.

• Cincinnati (+9) at Jacksonville (38.5 O/U) — Top five most probable: Brenton Strange under 0.5 TDs at a 90% probability, Tee Higgins under 0.5 TDs at a 78% probability, Zay Jones under 0.5 TDs at a 76% probability, Jaguars moneyline (1st quarter) at a 69% probability, and Jaguars -5.5 at a 62% probability.
  
  What this means: The Jags moneyline for the game is also currently down but should be around a 77.5% probability to lead the non-Brenton Strange/Tee Higgins TD prop category here. What a fall from grace for Tee Higgins in a contract year to be lumped in with a rookie TE for that prop line. That said, it does look like there’s a possibility for Cincinnati to keep this competitive with that Jags -5.5 alternate line hedge. I don’t expect it to be through the air given how not ready for primetime Bengals backup QB Jake Browning is. This could be another defense-forward slugfest come Monday Night Football.

Apologies to the fans of other sports but that NFL writeup likely takes up MORE than enough space for this email. The good news? If you want your favorite sports’ best bets, you can now go grab them for yourself whenever you please at Probly.com! Here’s the best way to use it:

1️⃣ Scroll through all of our available markets
2️⃣ Click the Probability number (or swipe right) to see what the markets are saying is the “true probability” of a bet to win as well as what the current best available odds are
3️⃣ If you can find odds aligned with the best odds out there and it has a positive PROBLY Score (especially over a 2.0), take the bet! Taking +EV bets will win you more money than it loses you! If not, you can still take the bet but be careful because negative PROBLY Score bets over time can fully deplete your bankroll.

There we have it, another one in the books. You know what I am legally obligated to say here: Go to Probly.com/subscribe and use promo code FIRST to get 40% off on ANY package. If you pay for a year of our Probly+ package with that discount, you’ll get every single pre-game market for under $10/month (it’s about $12 for your first month if you go the monthly way). Take the leap, join the fun, and get in better bets for yourself.

We’ll strap in for another week of the grind coming up (maybe even with a CTO who has a working laptop!). Enjoy your weekends and good luck!