🏈 Which NFL Games Will Thrive In Week 11?

It’s a new week here at Probly and we’ve got a whole lot to hit on in terms of updates as well as our usual run through the NFL to find the most probable events.

There’s no better time than RIGHT NOW to be one of our first customers at Probly.com/subscribe. Our 40% off deal with promo code FIRST is still active and we’re really hoping some more of you take the leap here and lock in the best discount we’ll ever have. If you need to be sold, check out this live demo of Probly from my Splash Play stream this AM to see how it all works. There is no tool out there that will allow you to get in winning bets faster across every single sport than what we’ve built, right from your phone so help us out and become one of the founding customers here at Probly.

But my desperate pleas for revenue aside, we’ve got a lot to get into. So let’s get started with your Probly Email for November 17th, 2023! - @ChrisSpags

• 🔓 Probly Product Updates: Improvements, Confirmation, and Hope

• 🔮 Predicting the future with the Most Probable events of NFL Week 11

As I said above, our Probly+ subscriptions at Probly.com/subscribe continue to offer you the deal to save 40% off with promo code FIRST for any package, monthly or yearly. There’s hundreds of you who read this email every week and let’s just say we haven’t gotten hundreds of signups yet so, really, if you have disposable income and bet regularly, now is the best time to take the leap for your sake and ours.

This discount is the best one we’ll ever have since we plan to go to 10% off promo codes once we roll out our affiliate program. Save up to $250 now at Probly.com/subscribe with promo code FIRST.

-We made some big improvements this week, including key fixes to calculations in how we generate our proprietary true probabilities that have helped us back-test to a 50-60% win rate, depending on the sport, with positive returns across every sport and league for our PROBLY Score bets above 1.0. That obviously includes every bet over the course of a week, so your mileage will always vary in smaller sample sizes (like Monday Night Football when the Bills laid the egg of all eggs).

But we feel more confident than ever with how things work after noticing a few minor things we wanted to tighten up in our probability calculations — particularly around spreads and alternate spreads — so now is truly the best time to fire at anything you see with a positive PROBLY Score.

-We also ditched the count of bets that appeared with the sport filters on top of the app for the sake of speeding up the load and also addressing some issues we had with sports disappearing occasionally because AWS’s DynamoDB couldn’t get an accurate count of viable markets.

-Illness for me and our efforts tightening up the math around our probabilities delayed the roll out of our Probly YouTube and Twitter, TikTok and Instagram content this week but I’m going to look to start getting into a regular flow with that stuff next week since, frankly, we need the potential of a new conversion funnel desperately.

-We’re currently working on a few key things around our internal analytics as well as a new functionality for our Probly+ Live users that will allow you to toggle to see ONLY live games AND sort the markets by Most Profitable (or Most Probable/etc) at the same time.

These will likely be the most +EV bet opportunities we have due to the market inefficiencies that arise in-game and we’ll be able to increase our update speed more and more as we get more users on this tier so, personally, that’s the one I’d suggest you sign up for. You get that plus any new products we create for $49.99/month or $499.99/year (with the 40% off available for both) so we hope it’s a particularly strong deal to justify the leap of faith.

If you guys encounter any issues not covered here or want to provide feedback, you can email me [email protected].

Apologies for the lower resolution than usual for our Most Likely graphic here but there are only so many times you get to run a photo of a QB’s new cornrows on a week they’ve been accused of trying to look like Drake.

A Dolphins win comes with an 87% probability at home against a mostly hapless Raiders team. The big expectation of this week is the Dolphins to hang a massive score on the Raiders with their 29.8 implied points in that game too so that is certainly logical as the spot with the most market confidence.

Let’s go game by game and mix in some +EV bets via our PROBLY Score where applicable. Last week we landed on a lot of good situations thanks to the market probabilities so let’s try to keep it going. Here’s your NFL Week 11 Most Probable:

• Chicago (+8) at Detroit (48 O/U) — Top five most probable: Lions win at a 77% probability, Lions -5.5 at a 60% probability, Bears +7 (1st half) at a 59% probability, Over 45.5 at a 57% probability, and Under 49.5 at a 56% probability.
  
  What this means: This kind of makes the game seem like there’s a shot to be more competitive than you’d think given how elite the Lions have looked. It seems unlikely for Detroit to blow this one, even with Justin Fields expected to return, but a feistier performance by the Bears along with that 49.5 point high-bar over/under could mean this game shoots out and sees ceiling performances from the Detroit side against a bad Bears pass D.

• Las Vegas (+13.5) at Miami (46 O/U) — Top five most probable: Dolphins win at the aforementioned 87% probability, Dolphins moneyline (1st half) at a 78% probability, Josh Jacobs over 2.5 receptions at a 61% probability, Aidan O’Connell over 0.5 INTs at a 60% probability, Under 27 (1st half) at a 59% probability, and Raiders +15.5 at a 58% probability.
  
  What this means: This all again fits the narrative of an absolute obliteration of the Raiders at the hands of the Dolphins. The Raiders playing from behind means more check down opportunities for Josh Jacobs, more dropbacks for Aidan O’Connell (which means more likelihood for mistakes), and the hedge of the Raiders losing by two touchdowns but not more than 15.5 points is a logical one as well. The one thing that spooks me the most, which is just outside the top five most probable, is Davante Adams under 6.5 receptions at a 55% probability. You’d think he might get going here since the Raiders will desperately need to get down field in a hurry to score points but, alas, not if the markets have their way.

• Dallas (-10.5) at Carolina (42.5 O/U) — Top five most probable: Cowboys win at an 81% probability, Over 19 (1st half) at a 61% probability, Bryce Young over 0.5 passing TDs at a 59% probability, Adam Thielen over 5.5 receptions at a 57% probability (and a 3.7 PROBLY Score at -122 odds), and Tony Pollard over 2.5 receptions at a 57% probability.
  
  What this means: That’s a lot of positive props for a Panthers team that mostly stinks (though Thielen should benefit from Frank Reich taking back playcalling duties after yielding them just two weeks ago). There is another +EV Bryce Young under 191.5 passing yards bet at a 55% probability and 2.5 PROBLY Score at -115 odds so I wouldn’t expect Young to have a good game or anything. But this does seem like markets portending a little more compeition overall in the game but not enough to make it a shootout necessarily.

• Arizona (+6) at Houston (48 O/U) — Top five most probable: Texans win at a 67% probability, Texans moneyline (1st quarter) at a 62% probability, Marquise Brown over 4.5 receptions at a 59% probability, Under 51.5 at a 58% probability, and Over 46.5 at a 58% probability.
  
  What this means: The most obvious shootout spot of the week on paper seems like it should be a shootout based upon these markets as well. The Texans face a woeful Cardinals pass defense but, with Kyler Murray back, the Cardinals should be able to get something going offensively enough to make this one interesting. With Houston likely to be a popular consideration for DFS tournaments this week, I’d approach it with some confidence. Though it is worth pointing out that Nico Collins under 4.5 receptions currently has a 57% probability and his under 55.5 receiving yards prop has a 55% probability (and a 3.7 PROBLY Score at -115 odds) so perhaps Tank Dell season remains afoot.

• Tennessee (+7) at Jacksonville (39.5 O/U) — Top five most probable: Jaguars win at a 73% probability, Will Levis over 0.5 passing TDs at a 69% probability, Jaguars moneyline (1st half) at a 68% probability, Under 42.5 at a 59% probability, and Titans +9 at a 58% probability.
  
  What this means: An ugly win for Jacksonville seems likely here against a Titans team that can hit the occasional deep shot with Levis throwing over 20+ air yards over 7 times per game currently. The Under 42.5 line is technically a “high bar” over/under so perhaps there’s more scoring than the market currently expects but it seems unlikely to find much to write home about unless you’re a Jags backer.

• Pittsburgh (+1.5) at Cleveland (33 O/U) — Top five most probable: Browns +0.5 (1st quarter) at a 65% probability, Dorian Thompson-Robinson over 0.5 INTs at a 65% probability, Browns +3 at a 60% probability, Jaylen Warren over 2.5 receptions at a 56% probability, and Jerome Ford over 53.5 rushing yards at a 55% probability (and a 2.9 PROBLY Score at -115 odds).
  
  What this means: This one has one of the lowest totals in recent NFL history and there’s nothing here that misaligns with that. I’d expect a slog of a game with rookie Dorian Thompson-Robinson not likely to have improved enough since his last disastrous start filling in for Deshaun Watson. It’s a good sign to see overs for Jerome Ford and Jaylen Warren but hard to expect either to put in an outlier performance in terms of yardage given the matchup.

• LA Chargers (-3) at Green Bay (44 O/U) — Top five most probable: Chargers win at a 61% probability, Justin Herbert under 0.5 INTs at a 60% probability, Dontayvion Wicks over 1.5 receptions at a 59% probability, Chargers moneyline (1st half) at a 58% probability, and Chargers -1.5 at a 58% probability.
  
  What this means: The good news, for me personally, is that right outside the top five is Christian Watson over 2.5 receptions at a 57% probability. But the lack of high bar over-unders in this game make me think this doesn’t necessarily become a shootout; if anything it seems more likely that the Packers keep this competitive with defense and a little more offense than expected while the Chargers find a way to disappoint, as they often do when not against a fellow high-powered offense.

• NY Giants (+10) at Washington (37 O/U) — Top five most probable: Commanders -5.5 at a 61% probability, Giants +12.5 at a 60% probability, Jahan Dotson under 3.5 receptions at a 58% probability, Under 20.5 (1st half) at a 58% probability, and over 34.5 at a 57% probability.
  
  What this means: I guess we won’t see Tommy DeVito make this one into a shootout, huh? It seems like good things for Sam Howell here with his Over 246.5 passing yards at a 55% probability (and a 2.9 PROBLY Score at -115 odds). But with the Giants likely unable to find a ceiling thanks to hideous QB play, Howell may not have to throw this one deep into the fourth quarter as he normally has to thanks to his sieve of a defense.

• Tampa Bay (+12) at San Francisco (42 O/U) — Top five most probable: Niners win at an 82% probability, Brock Purdy under 0.5 INTs at a 60% probability, Brock Purdy over 1.5 passing TDs at a 59% probability, Over 7 (1st quarter) at a 58% probability, and Bucs +14 at a 58% probability.
  
  What this means: Brock Purdy projects to be one of the most popular plays on DraftKings this weekend which means that Over 1.5 passing TDs prop is a good sign for his prospects. The alternate line of Bucs +14 appearing is much less of a good sign for the Bucs. This Niners defense looked resurgent last week against a much better Jags team and the Bucs have been fortunate to scheme their way into competitiveness against a lot of inferior defenses. It seems likely to come to a painful end this weekend with this one looking like even more of a pure boatrace than that Dolphins game.

• NY Jets (+7.5) at Buffalo (39.5 O/U) — Top five most probable: Under 43 at a 60% probability, Jets +10 at a 60% probability, Jets +9.5 at a 57% probability, Under 20.5 at a 56% probability, and Dalton Kincaid over 4.5 receptions at a 56% probability.
  
  What this means: After a DISASTROUS Monday Night Football performance that got offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey fired, the Bills seem likely to safely dispatch the Jets with a lot of hedging in alternate spreads against the market’s +7.5 line. New OC Joe Brady seems like good news for Dalton Kincaid, particularly with some squeaky wheel narrative around the underused Stefon Diggs lately (who has an Under 76.5 receiving yards line at a 50% probability).

• Seattle (-1) at LA Rams (46.5 O/U) — Top five most probable: Noah Fant over 1.5 receptions at a 62% probability, Over 20 (1st half) at a 61% probability, Rams +0.5 (1st quarter) at a 60% probability, Tyler Higbee under 3.5 receptions at a 59% probability, and Seahawks +2.5 at a 56% probability.
  
  What this means: This game is one that I’ve seen some people out there tout as a potential shootout but I am not seeing it in these alternate markets. Scoring over 20 in the first half could technically qualify but there isn’t a single “Under 48.5” type of bet coming up anywhere amongst the most probable. This one should be competitive but I wouldn’t be shocked to see this one a little more on the defensive end, I suppose for everyone besides Noah Fant whose name is likely in this email for the first time all year.

• Minnesota (+2.5) at Denver (42.5 O/U) — Top five most probable: Vikings +3.5 (1st half) at a 61% probability, Vikings +3.5 at a 58% probability, Javonte Williams over 2.5 receptions at a 58% probability, Vikings +0.5 (1st quarter) at a 58% probability, and Broncos +1.5 at a 58% probability.
  
  What this means: Hedging on both sides of the game means we should see this Sunday Night Football matchup come downto the wire. Both teams are defensively inefficient but offensively more effective than it seems like they should be so I really felt like thos one would ebb more towards a high scoring game. But the Broncos have had a horseshoe up their ass lately on defense — exhibit A: EVERY PLAY ON MONDAY (no I’m not angry about it at all) — and the Vikings are perhaps running a little hot results wise since the Josh Dobbs trade so I get it.

• Philadelphia (+2.5) at Kansas City (45.5 O/U) — Top five most probable: Kansas City Chiefs +1.5 at a 59% probability, D’Andre Swift over 17.5 receiving yards at a 58% probability (and a 5.5 PROBLY Score at -120 odds), Over 43.5 at a 57% probability, Justin Watson over 1.5 receptions at a 57% probability, and Chiefs moneyline (1st half) at a 56% probability.
  
  What this means: One of the best Monday Night Football matchups in a while, a Super Bowl rematch…looks kinda meh in terms of scoring expectation. D’Andre Swift adding a receiving floor makes him a more interesting play as a result. These are two quality defenses and my lean based off the markets would be to expect more of a defensively dominant effort than an offensively dominant one. It should still be fun and I certainly am less confident in the defensive dominance than, say, any team playing against Tommy DeVito. But this could be more like playoff football than an offensive explosion.

Apologies to the fans of other sports but that NFL writeup likely takes up MORE than enough space for this email. The good news? If you want your favorite sports’ best bets, you can now go grab them for yourself whenever you please at Probly.com! Here’s the best way to use it:

1️⃣ Scroll through all of our available markets
2️⃣ Click the Probability number (or swipe right) to see what the markets are saying is the “true probability” of a bet to win as well as what the current best available odds are
3️⃣ If you can find odds aligned with the best odds out there and it has a positive PROBLY Score (especially over a 2.0), take the bet! Taking +EV bets will win you more money than it loses you! If not, you can still take the bet but be careful because negative PROBLY Score bets over time can fully deplete your bankroll.

There we have it, another one in the books. You know what I am legally obligated to say here: Get your butt to Probly.com/subscribe and use promo code FIRST you can get 40% off on ANY package, including yearly ones for up to a $250 savings. This is the best deal we’ll ever have and it’s not going to last forever — especially if people don’t take advantage and we have to pivot to free trials or whatever — so, if you have the disposable income and you bet on the regular, get on board now and help us out while helping yourself win more and lose less.

That’s all I have for this week so, as always, I wish you guys the best of luck and I’ll see you again next week when we’re all fat from Thanksgiving and I’m harassing you with this email on a day off. Can’t wait, see you then!