🏈 Which NFL Games Might Be A Week 12 Outlier?

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• 🔮 Predicting the future with the Most Probable events of NFL Week 12

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This is actually a pretty flat week as it relates to win probabilities so one team stands on a tier all their own as it relates to being a favorite.

A Chiefs win comes with a 78% probability with them as 9.5 point favorites on the road at Las Vegas. We saw how the Raiders can muck a game up last week versus the heavily favored Dolphins — while still not really getting close to a win — so maybe it won’t be the biggest boat race even if the Chiefs win it fairly easily

Let’s go game by game and mix in some +EV bets via our PROBLY Score where applicable. This writeup remains a key part of my process to identify potential outlier games for the DraftKings main slates so I’d really take heed in the alternate total markets in paticular. Here’s your NFL Week 12 Most Probable:

• Tampa Bay (+2.5) at Indianapolis (44.5 O/U) — Top five most probable: Over 18.5 (1st half) at a 63% probability, Alec Pierce under 2.5 receptions at a 62% probability, Bucs +4.5 at a 61% probability, Over 20 (1st half) at a 59% probability, and Under 46 at a 59% probability.
  
  What this means: This is a game I’ve personally earmarked as having shootout potential so it’s nice to see some aligned signs from the markets here in the form of the 1st half overs and that high bar alternate total of Under 46. The Bucs +4.5 line also indicates that there may be some chance of the Colts really putting up points here to create additional separation than the market’s 2.5-point line. This one doesn’t scream 60-point shootout or anything but the markets do inspire some faith of secure production with a shot of an outlier scoring game.

• New Orleans (-1.5) at Atlanta (41.5 O/U) — Top five most probable: Drake London under 0.5 TDs at a 74% probability, Desmond Ridder under 1.5 passing TDs at a 69% probability, Desmond Ridder over 0.5 passing TDs at a 67% probability, Rashid Shaheed over 2.5 receptions at a 61% probability, and Falcons +0.5 (1st quarer) at a 61% probability.
  
  What this means: Well it seems like you can fairly safely peg Desmond Ridder at 1 passing TD and not much more than that. Rashid Shaheed should see increased opportunity with Michael Thomas out, though AT Perry likely has the most to gain in terms of routes and targets taking over the Thomas role. Either way, there’s nothing here saying this game should be expected to go wild with scoring and Derek Carr making his way back into the starting QB job will also make it less fun than if we saw a Jameis Winston start.

• New England (-3.5) at NY Giants (33.5 O/U) — Top five most probable: Patriots +0.5 (1st half) at a 65% probability, Tommy DeVito over 0.5 passing TDs at a 64% probability, Patriots win at a 63% probability (and a 2.2 PROBLY Score at -160 odds), Giants +6 at a 60% probability, and Patriots -1.5 at a 60% probability.
  
  What this means: There’s hedges on both sides of the bet here with those Giants +6 and Pats -1.5 lines but it does seem like the primary expectation is “within one score and ultimately a Pats win”. I’m mostly shocked to see a positive probability favoring Tommy DeVito throwing a TD pass, though some of that could be spurred on by him actually looking vaguely like an NFL QB against the Commanders’ week D last week. Bad offenses versus bad defenses usually err a little more on the side of the bad defenses and that seems to be the case here.

• Carolina (+3.5) at Tennessee (36.5 O/U) — Top five most probable: Bryce Young over 0.5 passing TDs at a 67% probability, Will Levis under 1.5 passing TDs at a 66% probability, Titans win at a 63% probability, DJ Chark under 2.5 receptions at a 61% probability, and Under 39.5 at a 60% probability.
  
  What this means: Carolina’s run defense is much worse than their pass defense and Tennessee’s pass defense is much worse than their run defense, which seems to be reflected in a rare Bryce Young over. The Under 39.5 alternate total is technically a “high bar” over/under compared to the market’s 36.5 line but it’s not high enough to try to go after this game as a shootout (even if it does provide some more comfort in one-off pieces in this game, like a Derrick Henry or Adam Thielen). There’s something potentially interesting to this game but it’s not likely to be an offensive epxlosion.

• Jacksonville (-1) at Houston (47.5 O/U) — Top five most probable: Robert Woods under 0.5 TDs at a 76% probability, Over 45.5 at a 59% probability, Travis Etienne under 3.5 receptions at a 57% probability, Over 21.5 (1st half) at a 57% probability, and Jaguars +2 at a 57% probability.
  
  What this means: This is a game that people will treat like a shootout — and one that I’d be tempted to take that bait on since I love CJ Stroud — but we’re actually seeing a low-bar over/under here with that Over 45.5 hedge on the market’s 47.5 line. That does tend to be an indication of an underperforming game environment than an offensive outlier. I wouldn’t run away from the game or anything given the talent involved and the fact that 45.5 points would still be more than most games on Sunday. But it’s not a spot that seems like you need to go out of the way to target game stacks from.

• Pittsburgh (-1.5) at Cincinnati (35.5 O/U) — Top five most probable: Kenny Pickett under 1.5 passing TDs at a 69% probability, Jaylen Warren under 0.5 TDs at a 65% probability, Steelers +2.5 (1st half) at a 61% probability, Bengals +4 at a 60% probability, and Under 38 at a 58% probability.
  
  What this means: This is another game which has a “technical” high-bar over/under with that Under 38 line being a hedge against the market’s 35.5 over/under. We do have a new offensive coordinator and playcaller for Pittsburgh so there is a shot to see increased production from Kenny Pickett, even if it does seem like that won’t necessarily funnel through the electric Jaylen Warren. It seems like despite the huge downgrade at QB from Joe Burrow to Jake Browning, we should expect the Bengals to keep this one in range and maybe both sides get a little more production as a result.

• LA Rams (-1.5) at Arizona (44.5 O/U) — Top five most probable: Arizona Cardinals +3.5 at a 62% probability, Rams +0.5 (1st quarter) at a 60% probability, Kyler Murray under 1.5 passing TDs at a 59% probability, Over 42 at a 57% probability, and Matthew Stafford under 1.5 passing TDs at a 56% probability.
  
  What this means: This is another game people will target as a shootout in DFS tournaments this week and there is nothing here supporting that. We have a low bar over/under, unders favored in passing TDs, it doesn’t seem like as good of a situation as the matchup might seem on paper. It kind of seems like Rams/Seattle last week where the game was certainly competitive but far short of offensive fireworks.

• Cleveland (+1) at Denver (36 O/U) — Top five most probable: Cedric Tillman under 0.5 TDs at an 86% probability, Russell Wilson under 1.5 passing TDs at a 67% probability, Broncos +3 at a 61% probability, Browns +3.5 at a 60% probability, and Dorian Thompson-Robinson over 0.5 passing TDs at a 58% probability.
  
  What this means: It seems like it’s safe to expect a competitive game but not to expect that to come at the hands off the offense. Denver’s defense is still egregiously bad, even with some fluky positive results recently, which explains how Dorian Thompson-Robinson might actually have a good shot to put up a passing TD. But the Cleveland defense is a world beater and that is most likely what leads to a slog of a game that ends up tight at the end.

• Buffalo (+3) at Philadelphia (49 O/U) — Top five most probable: Olamide Zaccheaus under 0.5 TDs at an 89% probability, Dalton Kincaid under 0.5 TDs at a 67% probability, Eagles win at a 61% probability, Eagles moneyline (1st half) at a 60% probability (and a 1.2 PROBLY Score at -146 odds), and Bills +5.5 at a 60% probability.

• Kansas City (-9) at Las Vegas (43 O/U) — Top five most probable: Ameer Abdullah under 0.5 TDs at an 89% probability, Skyy Moore under 0.5 TDs at an 82% probability, Chiefs win at a 78% probability, Aidan O’Connell over 0.5 passing TDs at a 67% probability, and Raiders +7.5 (1st half) at a 62% probability.
  
  What this means: Well you can already see a hint of the aforementioned mucking it up that the Raiders do with that +7.5 (1st half) line. I’m also a little bit surprised to not see a full dominance narrative for KC with moneylines favoring them for each quarter and half but that may also speak to the Raiders’ ability to find vaguely competitive games in most situations. It’s hard to imagine a Chiefs letdown here, especially after their Super Bowl rematch disappointment. Maybe the AOC touchdown prop means some hope for a feisty Raiders team to stay in this one with offense rather than just luckbox defensive plays.

• Baltimore (-3) at LA Chargers (48.5 O/U) — Top five most probable: Ravens moneyline (1st half) at a 61% probability, Ravens -2 at a 60% probability, Lamar Jackson under 0.5 INTs at a 59% probability, Ravens -2.5 at a 58% probability, and Under 51 at a 58% probability.
  
  What this means: It looks liek a fun one for Sunday Night Football with that high market over/under of 48.5 and the alternate line here of Under 51 popping up. It seems like it should go down to a one score game and one where Lamar Jackson will seemingly not give the game away. I’d like to play the passing upside of this one and you likely can’t go wrong if you try to stack up the core pieces if this game sees offenses move the ball but stay competitive until the end of this game.

• Chicago (+3) at Minnesota (43 O/U) — Top five most probable: Josh Oliver under 0.5 TDs at an 88% probability, Cairo Santos over 5.5 kicking points at a 61% probability (and a 4.2 PROBLY Score at -140 odds), KJ Osborn over 2.5 receptions at a 59% probability, Vikings moneyline (1st quarter) at a 58% probability, and Vikings -2.5 at a 57% probability.
  
  What this means: It doesn’t seem like there’s much to support outlier scoring here and, if anything, having a prominent over for the Bears’ kicker does likely mean a game with some drives stalling out. This does favor the Vikings winning the game but having it be competitive down the home stretch, particularly represented by that -2.5 hedge on a -3 market line. Either way, likely less of a fun game than Sunday night’s Ravens-Chargers effort but still it should be anyone’s game with at least some moving the ball into kickable range.

Apologies to the fans of other sports but that NFL writeup likely takes up MORE than enough space for this email. The good news? If you want your favorite sports’ best bets, you can now go grab them for yourself whenever you please at Probly.com! Here’s the best way to use it:

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I hope you all had an awesome Thanksgiving and that the long weekend treats all you well! Good luck!