🏹Mahomes The Biggest Favorite Of The Season?

It's Saturday morning, we've got a baby hacking up a lung thanks to RSV, no better soundtrack to the most probable bets in the world!I hope you all had/are in the midst of a glorious Thanksgiving weekend filled with whatever brings you you. Family, friends, smoking a bowl while ordering Chinese food and watching football, I've done it all at times in my life. At the end of the day, do what makes you happy and it's time well spent.But, largely due to the aforementioned cough monster that is baby Luka, I've got to spend my time wisely and bang this out. So let's get right into it all in your Probly email for November 26th, 2022. - @ChrisSpags

• 📸 More screenshots from our near-final MVP of the Probly product

• 🏈 Game-by-game preview of the most and least probable bets in NFL Week 12's games

• 👑 The most probable bets from college football, the NBA, and around the world!

We're nearing the home stretch of development on our core pages, currently cleaning up copy to account for our South American UX team's language differences and some lapses in betting in phraseology. But what you see on the screens above will be what I believe is the simplest profitability-focused event explorer you'll find in the industry as well as the user view of their profile.The former allows you power users or people who don't want to swipe through tons of individual Probly Cards to find the best bets in each game. You can Choose Probly Yes or Probly No from those individual tiles or click on either side to bet for or against the bet we're showing you. It'll have the functionality to make people spending A LOT of money more money. And it'll be just as simple and powerful for people who want to mess around and see how the overall picture of a game looks and make some picks on the platform for free.On that right profile screen, we will then track the results of everything you've done on Probly. If you leave the app to take a bet, we'll mark it as one we assume you've taken and tell you whether it won or lost at the end of the night. If you vote Probly Yes or Probly No, we'll track that too as a "Pick". We don't want to be full on bet tracking software but we do want you to be able to see how well you do on your own as well as how well you could do if you paid for our proprietary PROBLY Score to determine the mathematical profitability of each bet in real-time.We've also fleshed out pricing and more so, honestly, we're stoked. I have impressed on our teams the importance of getting out a fully functional beta (with synced up live data) by January but I may also share the prototype in here with the core functionalitiesbefore then to give you guys a taste in here. We are getting dangerously close to stage 2 of this processs so tell a friend to get on our list!

FIIIIINALLLY...Patrick Mahomes is BACK as THE Most....Probable (imagine that in classic WWE The Rock voice). Even with some top (or formerly top) weapons like Kadarius Toney, Mecole Hardman, and Clyde Edwards-Helaire out, Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs are the most probable winner of the 2022 season thus far. the Chiefs have a 90.2% probability to win versus the depleted Rams, a team whose 13.3 implied point total on primary markets is the lowest of the year. Bryce Perkins can run but if he pulls off anything approximating an upset, it would quite literally be the biggest of the year. Rounding out the top five: A Dolphins win over Houston at an 85.9% probability is #2, the Chiefs' 1st half moneyline is third at 81.2% probability, the Dolphins 1st half moneyline is at a 79.6% probability, and the Chiefs' 1st quarter moneyline is fifth at a 78.1% probability. Point being: The top markets in the world expect dominance from these two teams and not much of certainty anywhere else.

Here's everything else in NFL Week 12:

• Tampa Bay @ Cleveland - The Tom Brady-led Bucs have historically had some of their besst games coming off of a bye and it seems like there may be an expectation for them to at least not outright sh*t the bed. Bucs +0.5 (1st quarter) leads the way with a 65.7% probability while Bucs +1.5 (1st half) is the game's second most probable event at a 64.3% probability. Then we have Bucs/Browns under 23.5 points (1st half) at a 63.4% probability. This all kind of seems more like a slog game with more field goals than touchdowns but it is a nice matchup on paper for Tom and the gang; Cleveland's .126 EPA per play allowed is one of the worst marks in the league.

• Baltimore @ Jacksonville - I LOVE this game for fantasy and will be fully overexposed to Mark Andrews this week in particular given the 34% DVOA boost the Jags give up to tight ends, worst in the league. The alternate markets support that faith. Ravens/Jaguars under 52.5 is the most probable bet in the game at a 73.6% probability but, as you know from reading these the last few weeks, that means there's a 26.4% chance the scoring goes over. And even if it doesn't...52.5 is a LOFTY bar. Pair that with Ravens +3.5 as the game's second most likely outcome at 73.3% and I think this game might be one of the most live for a sneaky shootout this week.

• Cincinnati @ Tennessee - This game is another one where I want it to be a shootout but the top markets give me less faith than I would have based on the matchup data. Bengals-Titans over 36.5 points leads the way with a 68.9% probability and it's certainly a good thing to see the expectation they score something. But that does mean there's a 31.1% probability it goes under. The ONLY way Tennessee wins is by mucking this up, which I assume is why Titans +7.5 is the second most probable bet at a 67.8% probability. I'll take shots here in fantasy but market data doesn't seem favorable.

• Denver @ Carolina - These teams are closer in their performance on the year and it seems like there is not an expectation of much production even with the Panthers moving to Sam Darnold at QB. Panthers +7.5 is the most probable bet at a 72.3% probability followed by the 71.5% probability the game scores over 28.5 points. It does not seem like this ends up as a get-well spot for the Broncos offense.

• Atlanta @ Washington - The most probable markets in this one center around a Commanders win and not a lot of scoring. Commanders +0.5 (1st quarter) is the most probable at 68.7% probability followed by Commanders +0.5 (1st half) at 67.3% probability, a Commanders 1st half moneyline at 64.3%, and the Commanders' moneyline for the game at 63.7%. Seems like Taylor Heinicke could get some new Jordans to sport:

• Houston @ Miami - This game is CRUCIAL to get right this week because a lot of the field in fantasy will go to Tyreek Hill, Jeff Wilson, or both. Dolphins -3.5 is the game's most probable outcome at a 76.7% probability but I was a little surprised at the low over/under bar at #2 with Texans/Dolphins over 38.5 at only a 73.3% probability. There is also Texans/Dolphins under 52.5 in third at a 67.2% probability though and that's likely good enough to justify the leap of faith in onslaughting this game. My gut tells me the Dolphins just crush Houston, even with a shift to Kyle Allen at QB, and that could mean narrow margins of success for the pass catchers but a likely usable game from Jeff Wilson.

• Chicago @ NY Jets - Another game, another QB change with Mike White taking over for the currently reviled Zach Wilson. Jets +3.5 is the most probable bet at a 76.9% probability. Right behind is Bears/Jets under 45.5 points at a 70.7% probability. Bears/Jets over 31.5 points is also one of the game's most probable outcomes at a 69.2% probability followed by a Jets win at a 69.7% probability. Despite the staunch Jets D, if Justin Fields is capable of playing this could have some potential for scoring. Mike White is kind of an interesting DraftKings thought given the Bears' 22% DVOA boost to opposing passing offenses according to Football Outsiders.

• LA Chargers @ Arizona - Cardinals +10.5 is the most probable outcome at a 73.1% probability followed by the game scoring over 40.5 points at a 72.5% probability. There's also a high bar alternate line not far behind with under 54.5 points at a 66.2% probability. With Kyler Murray back from playing Call of Duty after it came out injury, it seems possible this game shoots out meaningfully — which could be crucial for fantasy football given its low ownership.

• Las Vegas @ Seattle - This one will be highly targeted in fantasy football this weekend and it looks justified from these top markets around the world. Seahawks +3.5 is at a 73.3% probability and then there's a lofty alternate line for the game with under 54.5 points hitting at a 68.3% probability. Geno Smith has crushed this year and he's in a cake matchup with the Raiders' league low 32.5% passing DVOA allowed. With Seattle also unable to defend WR1s — a 13% DVOA boost to the position — fading this game and Davante Adams' heater could be a mistake.

• LA Rams @ Kansas City - You've got all Chiefs dominance narrative markets here, as we discussed up top. One interesting one: Rams under 0.5 points (1st quarter) is NOT a bet you see often in the most probable bets but here it is at a 68.3% probability. I would have loved Bryce Perkins to come in and do his best Willie Beamen in Any Given Sunday impression to give this team some life but it doesn't look good.

• New Orleans @ San Francisco - The game going over 35.5 points is most probable at a 71.9% probability with Saints +14.5 behind it at a 68.3% probability. There's also an interesting under 48.5 points over/under at a 64.8% probability, which is noteworthy again as a bar that shows how much scoring could go down despite the low primary markets. It's hard to imagine Andy Dalton not getting gobbled up by the Niners defense but there are some reasons to think there could be more production in the game, at least from the Niners' side.

• Green Bay @ Philadelphia - Eagles +3.5 is the most probable bet on Sunday Night Football at a 78.4% probability but the under 52.5 points being at a 68.4% probability being #3 on the list — behind an Eagles win at 72.1% probability — is an interesting item. Given what we've seen from Aaron Rodgers, it feels like you can't expect him to get results against one of the pass defenses in the league. But there could be signs of life with these markets that give an interesting angle to try in DraftKings Showdown contests.

• Pittsburgh @ Indianapolis - Last and possibly least is Monday Night Football where the most probable outcome is Steelers +7.5 at a 69.7% probability. It's a low bar in this one with a 66.5% probability for over 33.5 points. Besides that it's mediocre alternate spreads which indicate this game should be competitive throughout but not with a lot to love from a production standpoint.

The Most Likely crown returns stateside! Sadly it's for the hated Utah Utes who ruined USC's undefeated season but give them the title tiehr way. Utah plays at woe begone 1-10 Colorado and they have a 96.1% probability to win it all. You also have a Germany basketball win at a 95.7% probability, a Texas win in college hoops at a 95.3% probability, and a tie between a Mizzou college basketball win and Lebanese hoops club Sagesse winning at a 95% probability. And yet Mizzou and Sagesse duck each other in competition every year. Shameful.College football's top five is led by that Utah win, a Libery win at a 93% probability, a Bama win at a 91.3% probability, Utah's first half moneyline at a 90.5% probability, and an Army win at a 89.3% probability.In the NBA, you have a Suns win at a 71% probability along with their 1st half moneyline at a 66.6% probability (the disrespect for the Jazz!), then alternate spreads for Lakers +2 (1st quarter) at a 63.6% probability, another Suns +0.5 (1st quarter) at 63% probability, and Thunder +2 (1st quarter) at a 61.7% probability. Who would have thought we'd ever get any Thunder representation amidst the top 5? Must be just that kind of NBA day.

That was about as efficient as could possibly be so I hope you guys enjoyed this jaunt through the world of Probly and sports overall!Enjoy the rest of your holiday weekend and I'll catch you guys next week.