🔮 Looking Into The Future With NFL Week 4 Markets!

As always, Probly.com remains available for all to shop around for the best bets, any time of day with any sport or bet you’d want. But today is a big day because we have an exciting announcement.

We are actually going to keep our PROBLY Score metric FREE in perpetuity. I’ll explain more on the why below in our Product Updates section but we think this makes us the only free product of this kind and we’re excited about it. The goal for Probly has been consumer advocacy and demystifying the numbers on why people lose or win in betting — as well as to provide a tool to help people get in a good, mathematically sound bet with little effort — and we believe we can provide that for free with meaningful reason to upgrade for memberships too.

And of course, we’ve got the weekly read on the highest probability outcomes in each game in NFL Week 4. There’s a lot going on so let’s get into it with your Probly Email for September 29th, 2023! - @ChrisSpags

• 🔓 Probly Product Updates: Why we’re keeping Probly.com’s PROBLY Score Expected Value calculations free

• 🏈 The most probable events of NFL Week 4

About our decision to keep our PROBLY Score free:

We’ve spent the last few weeks trying to get our Stripe integration up and running while we’ve monitored our audience numbers and things have held incredibly steady with some highly sticky numbers from you guys and whatever other users have come across Probly.com so far.

I also, personally, think it is a fun and informative experience to scroll throigh Probly and see countless -EV bets based on top market probabilities to illuminate how many bets out there have bad math for the customer behind them. We want to smarten people up and it’s hard to do that while paywalling the primary vessel to do that. So those two factors combined made it, in some respects, a no-brainer. I don’t believe anyone has ever given out data like this for free and I certainly don’t believe they’ve done it in this foolproof of a mobile interface. We think it is a good thing to be the first in these categories.

We will still roll out memberships, hopefully within the week. The perk of a membership is going to be only new, add-on features for our $19.99/month pre-game and $49.99/month Premium Live packages, including:

• The ability to sort by profitability for bets (so no searching around for the best stuff)

• No ads (since at some point we will have to put ads in for free users)

• For Premium Live users: All access to future products, including a few fun ones around parlays, bet type sorting, and more

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Point being: We think this is a win-win but obviously it’ll come down to you guys believing in the product and being up to save yourself a lot of time by paying for a membership. But we believe enough in the democratization of quality betting information to think it’s worth the shot so we hope you’ll support us in that quest either way!

Besides that, we’re currently experiencing one bug with expired markets from last night’s Thursday Night Football game stuck on the football markets browser that we hope to resolve shortly so we apologize for the inconvenience. Check the search page and filter by Football » NFL to go game by game to find markets in the mean time (which is my personal favorite way to browse) and we’ll hopefully push a fix soon.

If you guys encounter any issues not covered here or want to provide feedback, you can email me [email protected].

NFL Week 4 is afoot and, once again, the markets look a little smarter. These reads don’t always end up as perfect prognostications but they do tell a tale. Despite the slow start in Minnesota-Los Angeles, it got to where it needed to total wise as the markets said it would. The Cowboys loss to the Cardinals was definitely not foreseen but that speaks more to how low of a probability outcome that was to occur (the Cowboys? Poorly coached? No way!).

This week, your most probable winner ALSO faces the Cardinals with a San Francisco 49ers win at an 86% probability. I’d expect a well-coached Niners team to be a lot less live for upset than the Cowboys but, once again, this is likely the chalky Survivor Pool pick of the week so the game theory of that can be tough…as we saw last week.

Let’s go game by game and mix in some +EV bets via our PROBLY Score where I see them: Here’s your NFL Week 4 Most Probable:

• Atlanta (+3) at Jacksonville (43 O/U) — Top five most probable: Desmond Ridder under 1.5 passing TDs at a 70% probability, Kyle Pitts under 3.5 receptions at a 60% probability, Travis Etienne under 3.5 receptions at a 60% probability, Under 45.5 at a 59% probability, and Tyler Allgeier under 1.5 receptions at a 58% probability.
  
  What this means: Well that is A LOT of unders. This game is in London, which can always come with some caveats for performance — though the best game in Kyle Pitts’ career did come here. It seems like there pay be a slog at play here with a low over-under, no interesting alternate spreads, and that many unders.
  
  Another under that may be worth taking? Mack Hollins under 26.5 receiving yards has a 55% probability and a 2.9 PROBLY Score at -115 odds.

• Minnesota (-4) at Carolina (46.5 O/U) — Top five most probable: Over 39.5 at a 60% probability, Miles Sanders over 2.5 receptions at a 60% probability, Hayden Hurst over 2.5 receptions at a 59% probability, Vikings moneyline (1st quarter) at a 59% probability, Greg Joseph over 6.5 kicking points at a 57% probability (and a 1.4 PROBLY Score at -125 odds).
  
  What this means: Oh God, are the Vikings going to blow one to Carolina? Greg Joseph settling for field goals, overs on Carolina receptions, no actual Vikings win among the most probable events despite an early lead being among them. If you take these markets at face value, it seems like the most likely outcome is an early Vikings lead that gets frittered away. I find it hard to believe Bryce Young can actually win this one but it seems like it should be competitive down the stretch.

• Washington (+9) at Philadelphia (43 O/U) — Top five most probable: Eagles win at a 78% probability, Eagles moneyline (1st half) at a 73% probability, Eagles moneyline (1st quarter) at a 68% probability, Sam Howell over 0.5 interceptions at a 64% probability, and Under 46 at a 58% probability.
  
  What this means: A slight hedge on the market over/under with that under 46 so it seems like there could be some more scoring than expected here. The expectation would be that Sam Howell gets demolished after he turned it over an ungodly amount in Week 3 versus the Bills and there’s nothing here that really seems like it flies against that besides that higher alternate total.

• Pittsburgh (-2.5) at Houston (42.5 O/U) — Top five most probable: Over 39.5 at a 60% probability, Kenny Pickett under 1.5 passing TDs at a 60% probability, Over 40 at a 59% probability, CJ Stroud under 1.5 passing TDs at a 58% probability, Steelers win at a 58% probability.
  
  What this means: Kenny Pickett currently projects shockingly well on DraftKings and I’m very leery of it after seeing all these lines. A 40% chance of going under 39.5 is not a great sign, nor is Pickett and Stroud being likely to have under 1.5 passing TDs. Neither defense here is a world beater but this feels like a matchup that the markets would lead me to believe plays a little uglier and less of a shootout. Also one +EV bet of note: Texans +1.5 (1st half) at a 57% probability and a 6.6 PROBLY Score at -110 odds.

• Baltimore (+3) at Cleveland (40.5 O/U) — Top five most probable: Lamar Jackson under 1.5 passing TDs at a 69% probability, Over 20 (1st half) at a 67% probability (and a shockingly high 31.8 PROBLY Score if you can find -110 odds), Deshaun Watson under 0.5 interceptions at a 61% probability, Donovan Peoples-Jones under 2.5 receptions at a 57% probability, and Ravens under 20.5 at a 56% probability.
  
  What this means: This feels like an ugly spot for Baltimore against a Browns D that has been the most shutdown of the league so far. Cleveland generates a high 32% pressure rate and blitzes at a similar rate, which is potentially bad news for Lamar who’s been the worst QB in the league under pressure so far with a -2 EPA per dropback. Maybe the Browns D is due for regression but this looks like an ugly win for whomever survives this one.

• Cincinnati (-2.5) at Tennessee (40.5 O/U) — Top five most probable: Ryan Tannehill over 0.5 passing TDs at a 66% probability, Derrick Henry over 1.5 receptions at a 61% probability, Tyjae Spears under 2.5 receptions at a 61% probability, Ja’Marr Chase over 6.5 receptions at a 60% probability, and Over 39 at a 58% probability.
  
  What this means: It seems like there’s not a ton of confidence in a Bengals win despite a theoretical get-well matchup against Tennessee’s shoddy pass defense (they come in with a 58% probability to win that was just behind the Over 39 market above). This is another game that feels like it could have soem shootout potential on paper (at least for the Bengals’ side) but the market probabilities really don’t offer much to have faith in besides Ja’Marr Chase continuing to look solid.

• Miami (+2.5) at Buffalo (53.5 O/U) — Top five most probable: Tua Tagovailoa over 0.5 interceptions at a 61% probability, Under 56.5 at a 60% probability, Bills win at a 58% probability, Bills moneyline (1st half) at a 58% probability, and Under 55.5 at a 57% probability.
  
  What this means: The Bills’ defense is good enough that it gives me some pause on this game. But the fact that we are seeing two high bar over-unders means this game could be more of an offensive slugfest than it seems. Tua will make a mistake against this tough Bills D, as evidenced by that INT prop, but it does seem like the markets believe it’ll be a game that comes down to the wire and one score.

• LA Rams (Pick’Em) at Indianapolis (46 O/U) — Top five most probable: Over 19.5 (1st half) at a 65% probability, Tyler Higbee under 4.5 receptions at a 61% probability, Rams +3 at a 59% probability, Colts +3 at a 59% probability, and Over 44.5 at a 56% probability.
  
  What this means: This looks like the game most likely to fully go down to the wire as evidenced by the two +3 spreads hedging against a field goal loss. Neither defense is spectacular and if anyone can beat the Rams’ potential front four pressure, it’s Anthony Richardson. There’s nothing saying that this shoots out necessarily so it may be more likely to be a competitive, mid-scoring game than a Chargers-Vikings 2nd half air raid.

• Tampa Bay (+3) at New Orleans (39.5 O/U) — Top five most probable: Saints win at a 62% probability, Rachaad White under 3.5 receptions at a 61% probability (and a 2.5 PROBLY Score at -120 odds), Under 42.5 at a 59% probability, Over 37.5 at a 58% probability, and Saints moneyline (1st quarter) at a 57% probability.
  
  What this means: It seems like an ugly Saints win is on the menu, which could mean poor production for the Bucs given how their success comes from attacking downfield. New Orleans has shut down the pass game pretty effectively with more weakness against the run so far this year but there’s really nothing to like or find that interesting in this game. I want to believe in a Jameis Winston renaissance as he fills in for Derek Carr but there’s just nothing to say that here.

• Denver (-3) at Chicago (46.5 O/U) — Top five most probable: Broncos win at a 60% probability, Under 49 at a 59% probability, Broncos moneyline (1st half) at a 59% probability, Cole Kmet over 2.5 receptions at a 58% probability, and Over 44 at a 57% probability.
  
  What this means: There is a little bit of a hedge with that Under 49 line so perhaps there’s some real potential of a shootout here. These are two bad defenses but also two offenses that have been really ineffective for stretches as well. I’d err on the side of thinking this game has more scoring than less but it does seem like the markets push towards the Bears having more of a struggle in a bounceback spot after the Broncos gave up 70 last week.

• Las Vegas (+5) at LA Chargers (48.5 O/U) — Top five most probable: Chargers win at a 68% probability, Chargers moneyline (1st half) at a 64% probability, Justin Herbert over 1.5 passing TDs at a 63% probability, Chargers moneyline (1st quarter) at a 62% probability, Justin Herbert under 0.5 interceptions at a 61% probability.
  
  What this means: Nothing too shootout-y looking here despite a game that does feel like it should feel a lot of passing volume. Jimmy Garoppolo currently practicing his way through the concussion protocol may be a part of that. Either way, it’s possible the success only comes on the Chargers’ side and Justin Herbert, who seems like a safe bet to be a high scoring QB this week for fantasy based on the markets. The market over-under might actually be one of the better bets in the game with Over 48.5 at a 53.5% probability with a 2.1 PROBLY Score at -110 odds.

• Arizona (+14) at San Francisco (44.5 O/U) — Top five most probable: Niners win at an 86% probability, Niners moneyline (1st half) at a 79% probability, Niners moneyline (1st quarter) at a 75% probability, Over 41.5 at a 60% probability, Over 42 at a 58% probability.
  
  What this means: A 49ers dominance narrative is in play once again. It does seem like there is a slight hedge on the market over-under of 44.5 so that might portend an even poorer than expected effort by Arizona. I kind of wonder if Christian McCaffrey might struggle to hit this ceiling if they run out more Elijah Mitchell or even Jordan Mason in a huge blowout. He’s going to have to get his early on (and he certainly can).

• New England (+6.5) at Dallas (43.5 O/U) — Top five most probable: Cowboys win at a 72% probability, Mac Jones under 1.5 passing TDs at a 67% probability, Cowboys moneyline (1st half) at a 67% probability, Devante Parket over 2.5 receptions at a 59% probability, and Kendrick Bourne over 2.5 receptions at a 58% probability.
  
  What this means: There’s once again a decent bit of expectation for a Cowboys win after they embarrassed themselves versus Arizona last week. It’s odd to see Mac Jones projected for an under on TDs with two of his receivers projected as over on receptions, though those lines must just be inefficient for catches with how often Mac drops back per game. Chad Ryland over 5.5 kicking points has a 54% probability and a 3.1 PROBLY Score at -115 odds so the New England pass game makes some sense if Mac Jones is going to combine efforts with the Cowboys to make drives stall out.

• Kansas City (-8.5) at NY Jets (41.5 O/U) — Top five most probable: Chiefs win at a 77% probability, Chiefs moneyline (1st half) at a 71% probability, Under 44.5 at a 60% probability, Over 38.5 at a 60% probability, and Allen Lazard under 3.5 receptions at a 60% probability.
  
  What this means: Another dumpster fire for the Jets as they embarrass themselves in front of Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce’s budding love on Sunday Night Football in what will most assuredly be a ratings bonanza because of that. The good news? Greg Zuerlein over 4.5 kicking points has a 59% probability and a 7.2 PROBLY Score at -124 odds so he may be the one thing to get going as Zach Wilson barely moves the ball as the team loses their minds having to play hard to keep this guy afloat.

• Seattle (-1) at NY Giants (47 O/U) — Top five most probable: Over 44 points at a 60% probability, Giants +3 at a 60% probability (and a 1.7 PROBLY Score at -159 odds), Seahawks +3 at a 59% probability, Over 44.5 at a 59% probability, and Giants over 21.5 at a 58% probability.
  
  What this means: Another likely close game and, given how bad both pass defenses have been, one likely to see some solid scoring. That said: No high bar over-unders here in the top five does mean that the markets are not expecting it to go wild; if anything, those two hedges with the lower over-unders feel like a game that could err closer to 40 points worth of scoring than 60. I’d personally play this one for more scoring upside fantasy-wise but, as always, the markets tend to know more than we do.

Apologies to the fans of other sports but that NFL writeup likely takes up MORE than enough space for this email. The good news? If you want your favorite sports’ best bets, you can now go grab them for yourself whenever you please at Probly.com! Here’s the best way to use it:

1️⃣ Scroll through all of our available markets
2️⃣ Click the Probability number (or swipe right) to see what the markets are saying is the “true probability” of a bet to win as well as what the current best available odds are
3️⃣ If you can find odds aligned with the best odds out there and it has a positive PROBLY Score, take the bet! Taking +EV bets will win you more money than it loses you! If not, you can still take the bet but be careful because negative PROBLY Score bets over time can fully deplete your bankroll.

There we go guys, another one in the books. As always, thank you to those who read all the way down here and to everyone for their patience when we encounter glitches like the one I mentioned above. It drives me insane, I harass our CTO until it’s fixed, it’s a vicious cycle. But we’re knocking out the kinks as we hear some positive success and I see our bets in here hitting with more frequency so that’s all I can ask.

Tell a friend to try out Probly.com and tell them that they get all this data and ways to get in good bets for FREE, something they will not find anywhere else. We can use the word of mouth! Good luck in all your gambling related activities and I’ll see you guys next week!