🏈 Let's Get Some GOOD Bets For NFL Week 14

It’s been a long week in Probly HQ (aka my house) with a wife birthday, part three of a dishwasher install, and the work for Probly being done every day. But there’s no better way to cap it off than this email to you guys that’ll help us all wrap our heads around an ugly looking Week 14.

If you want to cut to the chase and just see some +EV bets according to our PROBLY Score data, check out the video I just published on YouTube:

We’re on a really nice run of wins with the bets within these videos — which are now just as thrilling to hit for the sake of hoping people sign up for Probly as well as for the actual profits from the bets so it’s a good time to start to check out the daily long-form video I do on the Probly YouTube channel as well as the separate short(er) form ones I do for TikTok and Instagram.

We still also have our 40% off deal going and could REALLY use some new signups before we pivot to our affiliate 10% offs so get in the mix for under $12 for your first month with promo code FIRST at Probly.com/subscribe now! And let’s get to it with your Probly Email for December 8th, 2023! - @ChrisSpags

• 🔓 Probly Product Updates: A CTO With A Broken Laptop

• 🔮 Predicting the future with the Most Probable events of NFL Week 14

I mentioned last week that we were experiencing an issue where our CTO was dealing with a broken laptop. Unfortunately, that issue dragged into this week as we waited for Apple Store followup only for him to finally get it back yesterday (which he’s still dealing with restoring backups from so we can get back to the work).

It’s been an interesting workflow this week (and last) as a result with basically all of my work driving Probly as it relates to creating daily content, trying to finalize our first affiliate deals, other assorted meetings/generalized anxiety over still trying to find funding in what everyone continues to remind me is the most difficult fundraising environment ever, and juggling my football content creation amidst that.

Now, I don’t spell all that out to be a martyr but rather to point out how many things that leaves uncovered when we’re not actively iterating and developing items for Probly. When you are a startup, and particularly a bootstrapped one with only two employees and one other of our close friends helping out in his free time, you need everything to be operating at pretty close to full efficacy as much as you can. Any day where you’re not building in some capacity feels like a wasted one.

So even as I feel better about my personal efforts and our daily content flow — as well as the results with them, including +7 units in just the last two days of videos on YouTube — it feels like we’re spinning our wheels in the mud when we’re not actively tightening things up or optimizing or beginning the build on new products at the same time. If Probly itself continues to push and find ways to make it even more delightful for customers, that matters more than a million videos I do (particularly while in the stage of organically building up our channels).

It’s the one thing I’ve had to get accustomed to in the pivot from previously founding a content site, where everything was dictated by the content’s quality and traffic-generating upside as well as some of my revenue efforts. My site, Guyism, went as I went along with our editorial staff. Product and our external site design efforts helped but it still came down to content and headlines and our ability to get people in the door and how that directly generated revenue to keep the lights on.

For Probly, it all comes down to the product and continuing to push ways to convert people, make it easier for them to engage with our app, spend less while we find ways to make more off the products, things like that. The content we create is a conversion funnel but the product continuing to put the “last 10 games” types in the dust is where we’ll have our biggest gains. This is a product first company and we truly believe that is the difference maker. But our only shot to survive and grow is if everything is clicking, iterating, and pushing in harmony. So pray for our precious laptops.

If you guys encounter any issues not covered here or want to provide feedback, you can email me [email protected].

If there’s one thing you know I love here, it’s not having to make a new thumbnail. And we’ve accomplished that thanks to those heroes in Miami, who are once again our Most Likely winners.

A Dolphins win comes with an 86% probability with them as 13.5 point favorites at home versus an egregiously bad Tennessee pass defense. What a run for Miami with what they did obliterating Washington as a heavy favorite last week and now this. They are one of the biggest favorites of the year and, relative to their talent and aggressive play style, it’s hard not to trust them more than some of our average favorites.

But let’s get into the game-by-game breakdown of Most Probable events along with any additional +EV bets we see along the way (though the video above likely covers that part much more thoroughly). You can also look at all this info for yourself at Probly.com/search, just filter by NFL and you’ll see each game. Let’s get into our Week 14 Most Probable events:

• Tampa Bay (+1) at Atlanta (41 O/U) — Top five most probable: Deven Thompkins under 0.5 TDs at an 87% probability, Desmond Ridder under 1.5 passing TDs at a 67% probability, Bucs +0.5 (1st quarter) at a 60% probability, Falcons +1.5 at a 59% probability, and Baker Mayfield over 0.5 INTs at a 59% probability.
  
  What this means: It is a very ugly week of implied totals so any high bar alternate totals (ones with an over/under above the market line amongst the most probable) are going to be even more valuable than usual. I thought this game might be one with some upside given the weak Tampa Bay pass defense but this does seem like a fairly binary expected outcome of a competitive game where Desmond Ridder has a little success, Baker Mayfield has a little failure, and the Falcons likely squeeze out a win.

• Jacksonville (+3) at Cleveland (32.5 O/U) —  Top five most probable: Joe Flacco over 0.5 TDs at a 69% probability, Jaguars +4.5 (1st half) at a 65% probability, Browns moneyline at a 60% probability, Browns moneyline (1st half) at a 60% probability, Jaguars +0.5 (1st quarter) at a 60% probability.
  
  What this means: There is definitely some confidence in that Browns win and even the Browns seizing control fairly on with that 1st half moneyline. That much confidence in Joe Flacco throwing a TD is surprising but does align with what fantasy players will look for this week with some popular DFS plays in David Njoku and Elijah Moore. There’s nothing here supporting a shootout — though there is an Under 36 alternate total at a 59% probability — so it does seem wise to temper expectations in the battle between Flacco and CJ Beathard.

• Detroit (-3) at Chicago (43 O/U) — Top five most probable: Darnell Mooney under 2.5 receptions at a 58% probability, DJ Moore over 4.5 receptions at a 58% probability, Jameson Williams under 19.5 receiving yards at a 55% probability, Khalil Herbert under 24.5 rushing yards at a 55% probability, and Bears +5 at a 55% probability.
  
  What this means: We see a bit of a hedge on the Bears’ market spread of +3 with that Bears +5 and it could make sense that a DJ Moore over goes hand in hand with the likelihood of a pass friendly game script if the Bears do give up more points than expected. Once again, there’s nothing here intimating there should be a shootout — though Justin Fields over 60.5 rushing yards at a 54% probability and 1.2 PROBLY Score at -115 odds does seem like there could be some fun — but it does seem like a one-score game with some expected offense.

• Carolina (+5) at New Orleans (38 O/U) — Top five most probable: Saints win at a 69% probability, Saints moneyline (1st half) at a 65% probability, Panthers +6 (1st half) at a 63% probability, Panthers +8 at a 62% probability, and Bryce Young over 0.5 passing TDs at a 60% probability.
  
  What this means: The Saints seem likely to win this one with some degree of comfortability with that Panthers +6 (1st half) line showing that the failing Panthers could really fail to show up early. That Panthers +8 line is also an obvious hedge on the game getting further away from them as well. I’d expect mostly Saints dominance with the lone good news being that Bryce Young might throw one TD. Yippee.

• LA Rams (+7.5) at Baltimore (40 O/U) — Top five most probable: Matthew Stafford under 1.5 passing TDs at a 74% probability, Ravens moneyline (1st quarter) at a 67% probability, Isaiah Likely under 3.5 receptions at a 59% probability (and a 5.3 PROBLY Score at -125 odds), Ravens -6 at a 58% probability, and Over 37.5 at a 57% probability.
  
  What this means: This game looked ugly on paper, particularly for the Rams, but it seems even uglier with the Over 37.5 line hedging against the market’s 40-point over/under. This seems like a high probability of a limp showing for the Rams, though maybe one where they’re able to keep it within a one-touchdown score more than the market Rams +7.5 may indicate.

• Houston (-3.5) at NY Jets (33 O/U) — Top five most probable: Texans win at a 71% probability, Breece Hall under 0.5 TDs at a 67% probability, Texans -1 at a 65% probability, Under 7.5 (1st quarter) at a 64% probability, Texans -2.5 at a 60% probability (and a 1.6 PROBLY Score at -145 odds).
  
  What this means: There definitely seems like there’s confidence in a Texans win, albeit perhaps for even less than a field goal’s breadth. This really seems like an ugly game with the Texans and Jets trading punts (or worse, turnovers), which is not the environment we want to see our precious CJ Stroud. Look for the Texans to take care of business but the hedging against the market line could make a Jets moneyline at home vaguely interesting.

• Indianapolis (+2) at Cincinnati (44 O/U) — Top five most probable: Tyler Boyd under 0.5 TDs at a 79% probability, Colts +3 at a 59% probability, Tee Higgins under 3.5 receptions at a 59% probability, Ja’Marr Chase under 6.5 receptions at a 58% probability, and Under 7.5 (1st quarter) at a 56% probability.
  
  What this means: It ssems like a lot of unders in this one, particularly given the two defenses that have struggled in various facets on each side. I will point out that just outside the top five are two important lines for fantasy players: Michael Pittman over 6.5 receptions has a 55% probability and Zack Moss over 73.5 rushing yards at a 55% probability (and 2.4 PROBLY Score at -115 odds). Despite a game that may be sluggish, it does seem like the Colts’ key fantasy guys should get there.

• Seattle (+11) at San Francisco (47 O/U) — Top five most probable: Charlie Woerner under 0.5 TDs at a 91% probability, Niners win at an 83% probability, Brock Purdy over 1.5 passing TDs at a 61% probability, Seahawks +15 at a 60% probability, and Christian McCaffrey over 3.5 receptions at a 60% probability.
  
  What this means: Well it doesn’t look good for the Seahawks that there’s a hedge on an already massive +11 line with that Seahawks +15 one. With Brock Purdy also projected to throw over 1.5 TDs, it feels like there is a real risk of a boat race here. It’s a little odd to see an over on Christian McCaffrey’s receptions given that you’d expect him to be involved less in the pass game if the game does pull away from the Seahawks. Maybe the Niners pile on points late but the game is within range early?

• Minnesota (-3) at Las Vegas (40 O/U) — Top five most probable: Aidan O’Connell under 0.5 TDs (rush/rec) at a 90% probability, Tre Tucker under 0.5 TDs at an 88% probability, Michael Mayer under 0.5 TDs at an 82% probability, Aidan O’Connell under 1.5 passing TDs at a 63% probability, and Raiders +4 at a 61% probability.
  
  What this means: There’s an Under 42 line just outside the top five at a 57% probability that could indicate slightly more production than the main markets expect. But overall there’s not a lot that stands out meaningfully. Raiders +4 is a hedge on that market +3; with that high of a probability compared to the market line, it seems like this is very likely to stay within a one-score game. Besides that, it seems like a reasonable expectation of a Vikings win.

• Denver (+2.5) at LA Chargers (44 O/U) — Top five most probable: Jerry Jeudy under 0.5 TDs at a 71% probability, Keenan Allen under 0.5 TDs at a 60% probability, Broncos +4 at a 59% probability, Over 42.5 at a 58% probability, and Broncos +0.5 (1st quarter) at a 57% probability.
  
  What this means: Given how bad the Broncos defense is, I’m surprised to see the under on Keenan Allen TDs as well as the low-bar over/under at Over 42.5 making appearances (though there is a high-bar Under 45.5 at a 55% probability). The Chargers have underperformed a lot this year but it is still fundamentally a high-upside matchup against a Broncos D that got obliterated by consolidated targets for Nico Collins last week. This isn’t a glowing market take on a shootout, though.

• Buffalo (+1) at Kansas City (48.5 O/U) — Top five most probable: Bills +3.5 (1st half) at a 63% probability, Bills +4.5 at a 60% probability, Chiefs +2.5 at a 57% probability, Jerick McKinnon under 2.5 receptions at a 56% probability, and Chiefs moneyline (1st quarter) at a 55% probability.
  
  What this means: That is some noteworthy hedging on the market’s Buffalo +1 line, though there is a hedge on the Chiefs as well with that Chiefs +2.5 line. There is not a high-bar over/under in sight so it may be wise to ebb more towards this game being slightly more defensive minded than it might seem given the teams involved. The Chiefs have slowed down a lot of games this year scoring-wise, on both sides of the ball. Given the QBs involved, a shootout is never out of the question but it doesn’t seem like there’s vigorous support of it here.

• Philadelphia (+3.5) at Dallas (52 O/U) — Top five most probable: DeVonta Smith under 0.5 TDs at a 68% probability, Eagles +6 (1st half) at a 63% probability, Cowboys win at a 60% probability, Cowboys -1.5 at a 60% probability, and Cowboys moneyline (1st quarter) at a 59% probability.
  
  What this means: It doesn’t look great for Philly, particularly as it relates to getting off to a slow start with that Eagles +6 line. There is a hedge on the Cowboys’ market win expectancy with that Cowboys -1.5 line but it does seem like the Cowboys are really expected to take one from the Eagles at home in a rare Sunday Night Football game with real star power.

• Green Bay (-6.5) at NY Giants (36.5 O/U) — Top five most probable: Jalin Hyatt under 0.5 TDs at an 82% probability, Tommy DeVito over 0.5 INTs at a 61% probability, Packers moneyline (1st quarter) at a 61% probability, Packers -1.5 (1st half) at a 61% probability, and Giants +7.5 at a 59% probability.
  
  What this means: It looks like a good game for the Packers, which includes a Jordan Love over 224.5 passing yards prop at a 55% probability and a 3.1 PROBLY Score at -115 odds. The Giants are limp defensively and it doesn’t seem like we should expect Tommy DeVito to keep slinging it as he has in recent particularly soft matchups. It’s shocking to see Green Bay favored this heavily on the road, particularly with them likely to be down Christian Watson, but they’ve been good lately, even knocking off the Chiefs. The markets really seem to be responding.

• Tennessee (+13.5) at Miami (46.5 O/U) — Top five most probable: Tyjae Spears under 0.5 TDs at a 78% probability, Dolphins moneyline (1st quarter) at a 74% probability, Jaylen Waddle under 5.5 receptions at a 59% probability, Over 45.5 at a 58% probability, and Tyreek Hill under 7.5 receptions at a 57% probability.
  
  What this means: Right underneath those bets at #6 is Titans +15.5 at a 57% probability, meaning we are really looking at a noteworthy level of potential boat racery. With those unders on Miami receiver receptions, it does seem like when you combine it with what we expect of the spread (as well as the Miami moneyline, which was pulled between when I wrote the intro and as I write this), you should see the Dolphins get up big early and never look back. That could be good news for De’Von Achane garbage time but it also likely means immediate destruction once more from a Miami team who does everything well that the Titans cannot defend.

Apologies to the fans of other sports but that NFL writeup likely takes up MORE than enough space for this email. The good news? If you want your favorite sports’ best bets, you can now go grab them for yourself whenever you please at Probly.com! Here’s the best way to use it:

1️⃣ Scroll through all of our available markets
2️⃣ Click the Probability number (or swipe right) to see what the markets are saying is the “true probability” of a bet to win as well as what the current best available odds are. If you’re a paid member, simply sort by Most Profitable to filter out all PROBLY Scores under zero.
3️⃣ If you can find odds aligned with the best odds out there and it has a positive PROBLY Score (especially over a 2.0), take the bet! Taking +EV bets will win you more money than it loses you! If not, you can still take the bet but be careful because negative PROBLY Score bets over time can fully deplete your bankroll.

There we have it, another one in the books. You know what I am legally obligated to say here: Go to Probly.com/subscribe and use promo code FIRST to get 40% off on ANY package. If you pay for a year of our Probly+ package with that discount, you’ll get every single pre-game market for under $10/month (it’s about $12 for your first month if you go the monthly way). You’re costing yourself money if you are an active bettor and not using our data right now, that is a guarantee.

I hope this email helps lead you to some positive places in betting this weekend. Sign up ofr a paid account if you have to means to do it, the support would REALLY help us at a delicate time for the business, and I’ll see you guys next week. Good luck!