🏈 Let's Find +EV Bets For NFL Week 15

It’s been a nice week of grinding here at Probly as we hit a ton of our bets touted during our video content, going up almost 11 units until yesterday’s NBA video. At this point, that’s the biggest conversion funnel we have besides you guys on our email list so winning bets there genuinely feels even better than the money part of winning a bet (though don’t forget: You can also get all of our bet data for yourself for under $12 for your first month with promo code FIRST at Probly.com/subscribe. It’s A LOT more value than one video about one sport at a specific time of day).

If you just want to see some of our +EV bets for NFL Week 15, check out this week’s video below. Otherwise, I’ll highlight some more bets where applicable as we go through the Most Probable NFL Week 15 markets and then our usual product update (now down at the bottom of the email). Let’s get to it with your Probly Email for December 15th, 2023! - @ChrisSpags

• 🔮 Predicting the future with the Most Probable events of NFL Week 15

• 🔓 Probly Product Updates: The Quest For The Apple Store

After the Dolphins failed as one of the biggest favorites of the year last week, it’s time for a new Most Likely winner.

This week, the crown goes to a Niners win with an 84.9% probability they survive the Cardinals. The Niners have been humming on all cylinders since the trade deadline and the Cardinals, to say it generously, have not so much. If this were a home game, you’d have to imagine it could be one of the highest likelihoods of the year.

Now let’s get into the game-by-game breakdown of Most Probable events along with any additional +EV bets we see along the way. You can also look at all this info for yourself at Probly.com/search, just filter by NFL and you’ll see each game and its currently available markets. Let’s get into our Week 15 Most Probable events with games on Saturday, Sunday, and Monday (also quick FYI - something being fixed on the back end has resulted in there being less available markets currently so these markets may look a little different than usual):

• Minnesota (+3) at Cincinnati (40.5 O/U) — Top five most probable: Joe Mixon over 27.5 receiving yards at a 53% probability, KJ Osborn under 23.5 receiving yards at a 52% probability, Jordan Addison under 18.5 longest reception at a 52% probability, Ty Chandler over 59.5 rushing yards at a 52% probability, and Ja’Marr Chase over 62.5 receiving yards at a 51% probability.
  
  What this means: It seems like this is a lot of reflection on Justin Jefferson’s expected return (v2) after he was quickly injured in his return last week. With Ty Chandler filling in for Alexander Mattison, he should have the keys to the backfield almost all to himself. To see this many bets favoring overs on production, it does seem like an indication of more offense to go around than the 40.5 point market over/under may imply.

• Pittsburgh (+1.5) at Indianapolis (42.5 O/U) — Top five most probable: Will Mallory under 1.5 receptions at a 64% probability, Josh Downs under 4.5 receptions at a 58% probability, Jaylen Warren over 43.5 rushing yards at a 54% probability (and a 1.1 PROBLY Score at -115 odds), and Josh Downs over 44.5 receiving yards at a 50% probability.
  
  What this means: An interesting couple of markets for Josh Downs and Jaylen Warren here with Downs seemingly expected to find some explosive plays for himself with the expectation of a coin-flip on 44.5 yards but a 58% probability on him having less than 4.5 receptions. The entire list of bets features slight weighting toward the unders for a lot of the key players here, including Michael Pittman, Zack Moss, and Najee Harris. It seems like there’s potential for this one to be more on the ugly side than the fun side.

• Denver (+4.5) at Detroit (48 O/U) — Top five most probable: Jameson Williams over 1.5 receptions at a 61% probability, Jahmyr Gibbs over 53.5 rushing yards at a 53% probability, Jared Goff over 32.5 pass attempts at a 52% probability, Broncos +3.5 (1st half) at a 52% probability, and Javonte Williams over 10.5 longest reception at a 52% probability.
  
  What this means: It’s interesting to see the Jared Goff over on pass attempts as well as the Jahmyr Gibbs rushing over given how those two things would be in some amount of contrast with a pass-heavy game script versus a run heavy one. It does seem like a reasonable expectation of production here though, even for the yet-to-breakout Jameson Williams (assuming you can call a decent shot of two catches or more “production”). I’ve mentioned on here multiple times that Denver’s defense has some real flaws that a good passing offense can rip apart and nobody needs an explosive bounceback more than Detroit.

• Chicago (+3) at Cleveland (37.5 O/U) — Top five most probable: Darnell Mooney under 2.5 receptions at a 62% probability, Joe Flacco under 226.5 passing yards at a 55% probability, David Njoku under 4.5 receptions at a 55% probability, Justin Fields under 180.5 passing yards at a 54% probability, and Amari Cooper under 58.5 receiving yards at a 54% probability (and a 1.2 PROBLY Score at -115 odds).
  
  What this means: Another barrage of unders makes this feel like another potentially ugly one, which is no surprise given Cleveland’s world beater of a defense and their relative lack of offensive firepower. Things look fairly bleak for Justin Fields here after he’s had some nice, lofty rushing props lately.

• Houston (+3) at Tennessee (37 O/U) — Top five most probable: Will Levis under 0.5 TDs (rush/rec) at an 86% probability, Tyjae Spears under 0.5 touchdowns at a 78% probability, Titans moneyline (1st half) at a 62% probability, Titans -1.5 at a 61% probability, and Titans moneyline (1st quarter) at a 60% probability (and a 1 PROBLY Score at -148 odds).
  
  What this means: No CJ Stroud, many problems. This looked like a matchup where Stroud would be able to throw all over a pass funnel Titans defense and, instead, it now looks like a game where the Titans will take advantage of a Texans team starting Davis Mills while Stroud is in concussion protocol. Tennessee seems likely to win ugly here, likely by one score or less with a Texans +6.5 also at a 59% probability, hedging against the market’s +3 spread.

• NY Giants (+6) at New Orleans (39.5 O/U) — Top five most probable: Matt Breida under 0.5 touchdowns at an 87% probability, Isaiah Hodgins under 1.5 receptions at a 68% probability, Darius Slayton over 1.5 receptions at a 66% probability (and a 1.1 PROBLY Score at -190 odds), Jalin Hyatt over 1.5 receptions at a 63% probability, and Saquon Barkley under 3.5 receptions at a 60% probability.
  
  What this means: There isn’t a ton to read into these lines besides an expectation of not many receptions for basically any Giants pass catcher (perhaps besides Wan’Dale Robinson). Under 41 is just outside the top five with a 56% probability so, with that high-bar over/under above the market’s 39.5 line, maybe there is some production above expectation here. But the primary read should be “this game is gross and unlovable.”

• NY Jets (+9.5) at Miami (37 O/U) — Top five most probable: Alec Ingold under 0.5 touchdowns at a 91% probability, Dalvin Cook under 0.5 touchdowns at an 83% probability, Breece Hall over 3.5 receptions at a 60% probability, Tyler Conklin over 2.5 receptions at a 58% probability, and Tua Tagovailoa under 220.5 passing yards at a 55% probability.
  
  What this means: With Tyreek Hill sidelined all week, this does seem like a lot of markets that indicate he may not go and this game may be a disaster as a result. The good news? The Zach Wilson renaissance may be on with Zach Wilson over 29.5 passing attempts at a 54% probability (and a 5.6 PROBLY Score at -105 odds). The Jets may play a little more aggressive offensively out of fear of what the Dolphins can do but the markets seem to expect their defense to make it fairly easy if Tua can’t throw for over 220 yards.

• Tampa Bay (+3) at Green Bay (42.5 O/U) — Top five most probable: Jordan Love under 0.5 TDs (rush/rec) at an 88% probability, Tucker Kraft under 0.5 TDs at a 73% probability, Baker Mayfield under 1.5 passing TDs at a 60% probability, Cade Otton over 2.5 receptions at a 56% probability, and Romeo Doubs over 3.5 receptions at a 53% probability.
  
  What this means: Despite the lack of Christian Watson, Romeo Doubs did absolutely nothing on Monday night. With that likely to be the case again, it does seem like Doubs should be in the mix to some amount (while Jayden Reed under 4.5 receptions has a 53% probability). The Bucs have been a sieve on pass defense but, with how Green Bay looked on Monday, it may be hard to have a lot of faith on them exploiting that weakness. For how frustrating Christian Watson has been this year, this offense really seems to drag without him.

• Kansas City (-8) at New England (37.5 O/U) — Top five most probable: Demario Douglas under 0.5 TDs at a 79% probability, Rashee Rice over 4.5 receptions at a 60% probability, Under 7.5 (1st quarter) at a 60% probability, Ezekiel Elliott under 0.5 TDs at a 59% probability, and Patrick Mahomes over 35.5 pass attempts at a 54% probability.
  
  What this means: That Ezekiel Elliott TD line, while high on the “yes” side at a 41% probability, is interesting to see given his likelihood of being one of the most popular players this week on DraftKings and FanDuel. If he doesn’t score that TD, he is likely a massive disappointment at high ownership. Besides that, it does seem like we are expecting another slog of a game. Despite the Pats’ pass D being easily exploitable, the Chiefs really haven’t exploded offensively versus anyone this year. Even if the Chiefs win easily, it does seem like it may come at the expense of an ugly game environment.

• Atlanta (-3) at Carolina (33.5 O/U) — Top five most probable: Raheem Blackshear under 0.5 TDs at an 88% probability, Desmond RIdder over 0.5 passing TDs at a 70% probability, Bryce Young under 174.5 passing yards at a 56% probability (and a 2.1 PROBLY Score at -120 odds), Desmond Ridder under 179.5 passing yards at a 55% probability (and a 3.3 PROBLY Score at -115 odds), and Bryce Young over 27.5 pass attempts at a 53% probability.
  
  What this means: Not a lot of production but a TD expected for Desmond Ridder, bad production but a good amount of dropbacks expected for Bryce Young…this seems like the Falcons are in line to take advantage of the diminuitive QB en route to a low-octane win. Ridder threw ALL OVER Tampa Bay last week as Drake London went for a career best game but it seems unlikely to expect that again in a game where it likely won’t take much to beat the impotent Panthers. Even if the Falcons blow it some how, winning ugly for either team seems on the menu.

• San Francisco (-12) at Arizona (48 O/U) — Top five most probable: Kyler Murray over 0.5 INTs at a 58% probability, George Kittle over 3.5 receptions at a 56% probability, Christian McCaffrey over 3.5 receptions at a 55% probability, Kyler Murray under 21.5 completions at a 54% probability, and Kyler Murray over 31.5 pass attempts at a 53% probability.
  
  What this means: The expectation is Niners destruction, as I mentioned in the intro, and that seems to really come at the expense of Kyler Murray based upon these markets. Potential INTs and low completion rates are not the way to survive the Niners, particularly with a bottom two or three defense like the Cardinals have.

• Washington (+6) at LA Rams (50.5 O/U) — Top five most probable: Cooper Kupp over 5.5 receptions at a 59% probability (and a 3.5 PROBLY Score at -130 odds), Lucas Havrisik under 8.5 kicking points at a 56% probability, Cooper Kupp over 76.5 receiving yards at a 54% probability (and a 1 PROBLY Score at -115 odds), Matthew Stafford under 23.5 completions at a 53% probability, and Antonio Gibson under 34.5 rushing yards at a 52% probability.
  
  What this means: It seems like the Rams should be able to get the game under control early if Matthew Stafford is only going to have 23.5 completions in this game (with Over 33.5 attempts at a 51% probability). This is a crucial game for fantasy football this weekend and it seems like, based off these markets, the most likely outcome is the Rams getting a lot of production from Cooper Kupp but stalling out in the red zone enough for their kicker Lucas Havrisik to have a good day. With Kyren WIlliams likely to be the most popular player in fantasy this weekend, it doesn’t seem like there’s an effusive take for him to go nuts scoring TDs in these markets.

• Dallas (+2) at Buffalo (50 O/U) — Top five most probable: Dalton Kincaid under 0.5 TDs at a 79% probability, Dak Prescott under 24.5 completions at a 54% probability, Dak Prescott over 0.5 INTs at a 54% probability, Josh Allen over 34.5 pass attempts at a 52% probability, and CeeDee Lamb over 25.5 longest reception at a 52% probability.
  
  What this means: It seems like there could be signs of potential Dallas struggle here, which is surprising given how they’ve brought the heat in the pass game against pretty much every opponent. The fact that Buffalo is a favorite is a surprise, indicating some potential for a letdown spot for the Cowboys With the high over/under and favorable markets for pass attempts (there’s also a Dak Prescott over 36.5 pass attempts line at a 51% probability), this might still end up a game of two gunslingers really airing it out, even if some mistakes occur along the way.

• Baltimore (-3) at Jacksonville (42.5 O/U) — Top five most probable: Zay Jones over 3.5 receptions at a 58% probability, Isaiah Likely under 3.5 receptions at a 58% probability, Rashod Bateman over 1.5 receptions at a 56% probability, Trevor Lawrence under 16.5 rushing yards at a 51% probability, and Lamar Jackson over 212.5 passing yards at a 51% probability.
  
  What this means: Nothing too exciting to note here for this Sunday Night Football game, perhaps besides a high likelihood of Trevor Lawrence still being fairly limited in week two of his high ankle sprain. Lamar passing overs is a good sign of him building upon one of his best passing performances last week against the Rams but overall it seems like the Jaguars should still keep it competitive, which looks like the best news for Zay Jones who’s quietly gotten back on track with Christian Kirk sidelined.

• Philadelphia (-3) at Seattle (47.5 O/U) — Top five most probable: Jake Bobo under 0.5 TDs at a 90% probability, Jalen Hurts under 0.5 INTs at a 59% probability, DeVonta Smith over 4.5 receptions at a 57% probability, DeVonta Smith under 56.5 receiving yards at a 55% probability, and Jalen Hurts over 0.5 TDs (rush/rec) at a 54% probability.
  
  What this means: It seems like a nice bounceback potentially for Jalen Hurts on Monday Night Football after an arguable season low performance last week versus Dallas. Seattle seems to be going the wrong way with injuries and the defense getting blown up a few times recently while the Eagles need to right the ship to ensure they get the bye (as well as the NFC East). Seattle may be spry with that low spread and the home game but it seems like the Eagles will need this one more as well as being due for some positive regression.

Apologies to the fans of other sports but that NFL writeup likely takes up MORE than enough space for this email. The good news? If you want your favorite sports’ best bets, you can now go grab them for yourself whenever you please at Probly.com! Here’s the best way to use it:

1️⃣ Scroll through all of our available markets
2️⃣ Click the Probability number (or swipe right) to see what the markets are saying is the “true probability” of a bet to win as well as what the current best available odds are. If you’re a paid member, simply sort by Most Profitable to filter out all PROBLY Scores under zero.
3️⃣ If you can find odds aligned with the best odds out there and it has a positive PROBLY Score (especially over a 2.0), take the bet! Taking +EV bets will win you more money than it loses you! If not, you can still take the bet but be careful because negative PROBLY Score bets over time can fully deplete your bankroll.

We’re trying to close out the year strongly at Probly, particularly as we head into some tough financial headwinds as we get into January. Because, candidly, we haven’t seen as many signups as I would have hoped from our first month of launch, we’re really trying to figure out how to remedy that with both the product itself as well as our approach (which you may notice with new thumbnails/etc). There are bills coming due in January, particularly our Amazon Web Services and OddsJam ones, that we need to have the ability to cover and, with investment currently seeming like an impossibility until we get more traction, that has to come from more signups.

As a result, we’re currently pushing really hard to get live on Apple’s App Store since we know the optimization there — as well as potential for discovery — could be a gamechanger for reaching new people while we build up our own organic reach through YouTube, TikTok, Instagram and, of course, this email. Same thing for Google Play, though the integration there is a lot less of a hassle with some specifity required to be on iOS.

Basically, if you’re not tech savvy, Probly is a Progressive Web App, or PWA. It functions exactly like a mobile app but it was built as a PWA to have the web capabilities that are crucial for other parts of the globe that aren’t the US as well as the flexibility to then wrap it in additional code to make it run on the App Store and Google Play.

But because you have to use Apple’s specific API for signups (as opposed to Stripe, our usual payment provider) because they need to get their cut of any digital transactions, we now have to rebuild everything in terms of how accounts and signups are handled just to get App Store approval for the luxury of paying them a 30% cut on subscriptions. When you combine that with the time expense to rebuild this, it’s a really big mountain to move for something we probably should have prioritized much earlier.

Our hope is we’ll be able to get the App Store version at the very least submitted over the next week and hopefully en route to approval around Christmastime. We’ve learned more about Probly and the market than we would have thought possible over the last few months. Now, we need to be able to enact those lessons fast enough to keep the company in good position (i.e. alive) as we head into 2024. No stress at all here this holiday season, no siree.

If you guys encounter any issues not covered here or want to provide feedback, you can email me [email protected].

There we have it, another one in the books. You know what I am legally obligated to say here: Go to Probly.com/subscribe and use promo code FIRST to get 40% off on ANY package. If you pay for a year of our Probly+ package with that discount, you’ll get every single pre-game market for under $10/month (it’s about $12 for your first month if you go the monthly way). If you bet regularly (or even occasionally), you are costing yourself money — and us a shot at survival! — with how easy it is to find quality, mathematically profitable bets with Probly.

As always, thanks to all of you who read all the way down here. I wish you guys the best of luck (more luck if you are a paying customer!) and I’ll see you guys before the holiday for more!