🏈 Let's Figure Out Week 18 Using Top Betting Markets

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Week 18 is a dumpster fire of team motivations and player motivations related to contracts and guys who may not play a full game so keep that in mind as we go through everything. Let’s get into it with your Probly Email, our first of the year, for January 5th, 2024! - @ChrisSpags

• 🔮 Predicting the future with the Most Probable events and +EV bets of of NFL Week 18

• 🔓 Probly Product Updates: TikTok Is Messing With Us

The Cowboys can win the NFC East and get a shot at some amount of homefield with a win and, lo and behold, they play the hopeless Commanders defense. You know what that means…

A Cowboys win is the most probable win of the week with an 86% probability they stick it to the Commanders in what could be a full house cleaning for them with how the season has unfolded down the stretch. With how hot Ceedee Lamb has been, it’s hard to imagine them not sticking it to Washington one more time — though you would have thought that last year when Sam Howell earned this job with his gritty Week 18 win over Dallas.

Now let’s get into the game-by-game breakdown of Most Probable events along with any additional +EV bets we see along the way. You can also look at all this info for yourself at Probly.com/search, just filter by NFL and you’ll see each game and its currently available markets!

• Pittsburgh (-3) at Baltimore (35 O/U) — Top five most probable: George Pickens under 0.5 TDs at a 76% probability, Mason Rudolph under 1.5 passing TDs at a 69% probability, Mason Rudolph over 0.5 passing TDs at a 69% probability, Under 20.5 (1st half) at a 63% probability, and Ravens +0.5 (1st quarter) at a 62% probability.
  
  What this means: It’s a little surprising to see that confidence against a George Pickens TD after he has been on a tear the last few weeks with Mason Rudolph at QB. It’s also not a great sign for the Steelers in this game that has playoff implications for them that a Ravens team who’ll rest most, if not all, starters is a high probability +0.5 in the 1st quarter. It seems like a potential disappointment spot for Pittsburgh or, at the very least, one where they seem unlikely to beat down second stringers like a true playoff team should.

• Houston (-1) at Indianapolis (47 O/U) — Top five most probable: CJ Stroud under 0.5 TDs (rush/rec) at an 85% probability, Kylen Granson under 0.5 TDs at an 82% probability, Texans +2.5 (1st half) at a 59% probability, Texans +2 at a 56% probability, and Alec Pierce under 2.5 receptions at a 56% probability.
  
  What this means: This is a “win and you’re in” game for both sides and the winner will win the AFC South if Jacksonville loses. With that in mind, it doesn’t look great for the Texans to see these hedges against their market -1 line. Both teams are well-coached but prone to give up big production at spots, which is no surprise given the 47-point market over/under. I’d probably take the value on a Colts win with those markets seemingly hedging against a late Texans loss.

• Cleveland (+7) at Cincinnati (37.5 O/U) — Top five most probable: Bengals win at a 74% probability, Bengals moneyline (1st half) at a 69% probability, Bengals moneyline (1st quarter) at a 66% probability, Bengals -3 at a 63% probability, and Under 22 (1st half) at a 60% probability.
  
  What this means: It’s unique to see the dominance narrative here — Bengals moneylines throughout 1st quarter, 1st half, and the game — among the most probable while also seeing a hedge on the market’s Bengals -7 line. Perhaps that means the Browns can keep this one close but, ultimately, not have the firepower to win with most of their starters expected to rest. Jeff Driskel is NOT a good QB but he is a quality runner and has shown upside in the past in terms of offensive production. While he’s no Joe Flacco, he could make this a little more fun than the total and spread indicate.

• Tampa Bay (-4.5) at Carolina (37 O/U) — Top five most probable: Bucs win at a 67% probability, Bucs moneyline (1st half) at a 64% probability, Bucs -2 at a 64% probability, Under 7.5 (1st quarter) at a 60% probability, Over 6.5 (1st quarter) at a 59% probability.
  
  What this means: Well I guess you should perhaps expect a touchdown and not much more in that first quarter. Besides that, it’s hard to imagine a Carolina upset here given how listless they should be with literally nothing to play for (even in terms of tanking, since they no longer have their #1 pick). The Bucs are competing for the NFC South and a playoff berth — as well as a big bonus for Baker Mayfield if they win — so, even with the lack of a full dominance narrative, it seems like the expectation here is a low friction Bucs win.

• Atlanta (+3) at New Orleans (41.5 O/U) — Top five most probable: Lynn Bowden Jr under 0.5 TDs at an 87% probability, Taylor Heinicke over 0.5 passing TDs at a 68% probability, Saints +1 at a 62% probability, Falcons +4.5 (1st half) at a 62% probability, and Rashid Shaheed under 3.5 receptions at a 61% probability.
  
  What this means: It seems like we should expect a slow start for Atlanta here with that Falcons +4.5 (1st half) higher than the spread for the game itself. Both teams are technically in the hunt for the NFC South and a playoff spot, though the Bucs would need to lose to Carolina for that to happen. It seems like a safe expectation to see a competitive, one-score kind of game here.

• Jacksonville (-3.5) at Tennessee (41 O/U) — Top five most probable: Tank Bigsby under 0.5 TDs at a 90% probability, D’Ernest Johnson under 0.5 TDs at an 89% probability, Treylon Burks under 0.5 TDs at an 80% probability, Jags win at a 67% probability, and Jags -2 at a 65% probability.
  
  What this means: In another “win and you’re in” game for Jacksonville, it seems safe to expect them to rely on Travis Etienne more than his backups for sure. Besides that, it seems like we do have a slight hedge on the Jags with that -2 line amongst the top five, which is getting dangerously close to a potential upset. If the Jags lose, they lose the AFC South and are at risk to not make the playoffs so the expectation is they come through. But these markets do seem to make it seem like Tennessee is live to play spoiler — or at least get close to it.

• NY Jets (+2) at New England (31 O/U) — Top five most probable: Under 19 (1st half) at a 65% probability, Pats +1.5 (1st quarter) at a 64% probability, Jets +4.5 at a 63% probability, Jets +4 at a 62% probability, and Pats +1.5 (1st half) at a 61% probability.
  
  What this means: This game is meaningless besides the potential of it being Bill Belichick’s last game as Patriots coach. Despite that, it doesn’t seem like iehter side is really expected to roll over, though Jets +4 is definitely a hedge on them not showing up on a game that means absolutely zero for the team and the coaching staff. I’d expect a hideous Pats win to send off the greatest coach of all time who clearly is no longer at the peak of his powers.

• Minnesota (+3.5) at Detroit (46 O/U) — Top five most probable: Antoine Green under 0.5 TDs at a 90% probability, Sam LaPorta under 0.5 TDs at a 71% probability, Vikings +8 at a 63% probability, Jared Goff under 0.5 INTs at a 61% probability, and Lions moneyline (1st half) at a 60% probability.
  
  What this means: The Lions are expected to be full-go for seeding purposes while the Vikings attempt to keep their limited playoff hopes alive. With that in mind, seeing a Vikings +8 hedge amongst the top five does not exactly give you a ton of confidence for Minnesota versus a Detroit team that should play angry after getting lightly screwed out of a win versus Dallas last week.

• Chicago (+3) at Green Bay (45 O/U) — Top five most probable: Bears +5 at a 60% probability, Packers +1.5 at a 60% probability, Bears +4.5 at a 59% probability, Bears +3.5 (1st half) at a 59% probability, and Over 42 at a 57% probability.
  
  What this means: A low-bar over/under and hedges on both sides feel like the markets throwing their hands up on this one a bit. The Packers are playing for a playoff spot but the Bears seem stoked at the prospect of playing spoiler against their arch rivals at Lambeau. I’d expect the Packers to take care of business but this one should go down to the wire.

• Philadelphia (-5.5) at NY Giants (42 O/U) — Top five most probable: Tyrod Taylor under 1.5 passing TDs at a 70% probability, Eagles win at a 68% probability, Eagles moneyline (1st half) at a 63% probability, Eagles -2.5 at a 62% probability, and Giants +7.5 at a 60% probability.
  
  What this means: Another one with hedges on both sides of the game really reflects poorly upon the Eagles. Granted, I get why the markets are down on them after they’ve blown games against other NFC contenders as well as a literal bottom five team in Arizona last week. But I find it hard to believe Philly doesn’t come through here, even if the Giants put up a feistier showing than they should given that they have been dead in the water for like…three months now.

• Kansas City (+3.5) at LA Chargers (35.5 O/U) — Top five most probable: Chargers win at a 64% probability, Chargers +0.5 (1st half) at a 63% probability, Chargers +3 at a 62% probability, Chargers +1 at a 61% probability, and Chiefs +2.5 (1st quarter) at a 60% probability.
  
  What this means: Blaine Gabbert is starting for the Chiefs since this game doesn’t affect their seeding. That should tell you everything you need to know here. I’d expect an ugly Chargers win but, personally, am a little surprised to see that much confidence in the Chargers even with the Chiefs playing no one of note. They both should stink.

• LA Rams (+4) at San Francisco (40.5 O/U) — Top five most probable: Niners win at a 66% probability, Niners moneyline (1st quarter) at a 63% probability, Niners +1 at a 62% probability, Niners moneyline (1st half) at a 62% probability, and Rams +4.5 (1st half) at a 61% probability.
  
  What this means: The Niners and Rams will both rest starters with their seeding locked up and this one should hang in competitively as a result. The Niners’ system and backups should be more productive here but we do find the hedge of Niners +1 among the top five. There’s a shot the Rams steal this one in the battle of Carson Wentz versus Sam Darnold. NFL Week 18: Catch the fever!

• Seattle (-3) at Arizona (47.5 O/U) — Top five most probable: Rondale Moore under 0.5 TDs at a 77% probability, Kenneth Walker under 2.5 receptions at a 63% probability, Cardinals +5.5 at a 61% probability, Geno Smith under 0.5 INTs at a 58% probability, and Seahawks moneyline (1st quarter) at a 57% probability.
  
  What this means: This is not necessarily the spread you’d expect for Seattle given that they are playing for a playoff spot and the Cardinals are playing seemingly only to make their draft pick worse. That said, there aren’t really any hedges against Seattle’s success here — if anything, you could read Walker under 2.5 receptions as a sign of the Seahawks never getting into a trailing game script. I would have thought this is live for a Cardinals upset with the total, spread, and how they played last week but the markets don’t really indicate that.

• Denver (+2.5) at Las Vegas (37 O/U) — Top five most probable: Lucas Krull under 0.5 TDs at an 89% probability, Lil’Jordan Humphrey under 0.5 TDs at an 88% probability, Austin Hooper under 0.5 TDs at an 82% probability, Jakobi Meyers under 0.5 TDs at a 74% probability, and Raiders +2.5 (1st half) at a 63% probability.
  
  What this means: This game doesn’t matter and the markets also seem stupid. There is nothing to love, let alone like, about what I see here.

• Dallas (-13.5) at Washington (47 O/U) — Top five most probable: Cowboys win at an 86% probability, Jake Ferguson under 0.5 TDs at a 70% probability, Cowboys moneyline (1st quarter) at a 69% probability, Dak Prescott over 1.5 passing TDs at a 64% probability, Brandin Cooks under 3.5 receptions at a 61% probability.
  
  What this means: The Cowboys need this win to win the NFC East and secure better seeding and the Commanders are literal ass and there’s nothing that puts the fear of God in you from these markets. It’s also rare, as you know from these emails, to see a QB projected to be likely to have at least 2 passing TDs. Cowboys stacks will be insanely chalky this weekend in DFS and they may get there based off of all this. One thing I will note: There is an Over 42.5 at a 60% probability right outside the top five so I’d be more inclined to say this is not a shootout than one that ends up shockingly competitive on the Commanders’ side (especially since everyone there may get fired soon).

• Buffalo (-2.5) at Miami (48.5 O/U) — Top five most probable: Dolphins +5.5 at a 63% probability, Dolphins +5 at a 62% probability, Dolphins +4.5 at a 60% probability, Under 52.5 at a 60% probability, and Under 51.5 at a 59% probability.
  
  What this means: TWO high-bar over/unders are not something you see very often in our Probly market data so I’d think this one has a good shot of shooting out. The Bills need a win to get in, the Dolphins need a win for the AFC East and for seeding…but it does seem like a lot of hedges on the Dolphins and not much on Buffalo’s side. The funniest outcome for playoff best ball — even if it’d absolutely hurt my teams — is the Dolphins winning to knock out the Bills. But, based off this, it does seem like the most presumed outcome does seem equally presumed to come through by the top betting markets around the world.

Apologies to the fans of other sports but that NFL writeup likely takes up MORE than enough space for this email. The good news? If you want your favorite sports’ best bets, you can now go grab them for yourself whenever you please at Probly.com! Here’s the best way to use it:

1️⃣ Scroll through all of our available markets
2️⃣ Click the Probability number (or swipe right) to see what the markets are saying is the “true probability” of a bet to win as well as what the current best available odds are. If you’re a paid member, simply sort by Most Profitable to filter out all PROBLY Scores under zero.
3️⃣ If you can find odds aligned with the best odds out there and it has a positive PROBLY Score (especially over a 2.0), take the bet! Taking +EV bets will win you more money than it loses you! If not, you can still take the bet but be careful because negative PROBLY Score bets over time can fully deplete your bankroll.

With the best ball millions dream of funding Probly dead, it was back to work trying to keep everything afloat this week. We’re still pushing on the App Store stuff, which has been frustrating for me and our CTO. He’s been debugging stuff all this week and every fix has seemingly resulted in additional hurdle, which sucks for us given that we were initially sold on the ease of conversion of a PWA to an App Store/Google Play app and that has not been the case. Blockers like this that I have no control of are extremely tilting at this stage of the game. We still anticipate getting this submitted within days and we need it for the sake of app discovery because…

This week, TikTok randomly decided to seemingly not serve our videos to followers or other users any more. After we had started to grow our @ProblyApp handle on there and get our first ever video over 2500 views, it throttled me down to zero this week for reasons I am not entirely sure of. I A/B test different things on there within each video — including titling, graphics, wording, and hash tags — and on Wednesday, our video suddenly clocked 0 views. After deleting the video and reuploading with different hashtags, that one also clocked 0. Same thing for the one I did yesterday. I am baffled by it and Googling aggressively to see if there’s a fix.

Based on my early research, it might be because if you are posting on TikTok and not actively engaging — ie watching others’ content, liking, and commenting to “warm up the account” — then you get punished. So if you’ve watched the content on there, that’s why there hasn’t been any new videos showing since Jan 2 despite a lot of our new followers on there checking the profile for content. It’s perplexing and one of the pain points of trying to build this platform from scratch, particularly since stuff like deleting a video can apparently also bork your algorithm and you have no way to communicate this to followers.

Some creators out there advocate for focusing on getting great results on one platform before worrying about others and that may be what we do with our YouTube. But I know the upside of TikTok in theoretically converting people — and am very relutant to start over with some “ProblyApp1234” BS — so I’ll update here if I do figure it out. Maybe I just need to dance more to fulfill the full TikTok stereotype? I’m sure you’ve all long thought that was what my content has been missing.

Besides that, we've got some interesting calls coming up next week with various folks who may have a solution to help us get through our bills coming up so hopefully that helps us make sense of everything under the wire. It’s a lot of stress since, frankly, all of this stuff moves at a far more glacial pace than we need. But we continue to push amidst every imaginable hurdle because, well, when you’ve got the cure to betting cancer, you’ve got to find a way to get it in people’s hands.

If you guys encounter any issues not covered here or want to provide feedback, you can email me [email protected].

Nothing better than having to write up EVERY NFL GAME in a week where half the teams will be halfassedly playing at best. But we do it for the love of the game here no matter what, as you know by now.

As always, thanks to all of you who read all the way down here. Use promo code FIRST to get 50% off at Probly.com/subscribe to cure yourself from the woes of bad bets. I’ll be back next week with more, good luck!