⚾️ Last MLB Betting Days Before All-Star Break!

I spared you guys an extra piece of email not to read over the 4th of July amidst a chaotic “vacation” week for me last week. No Joey Chestnut, I sit it out! But have no fear, America’s (presumably) favorite betting email is back!

It’s been a really nice July for our data — amidst being on and off with the daily videos due to being on a semi-vacation last week.

It’s been so hot that despite an unlucky and abysmal -36% ROI day on a huge card I did on YouTube yesterday, we’re still plus 15% ROI on the month for all the bets in videos and the email.

It's tough to talk about the reality of betting when trying to sell a product but those two numbers combined show the importance of sweating the micro versus the macro, something that can be the hardest for new people in betting.

New to Probly? Learn more about optimal settings for Probly, expected value/market-based betting, or see a product demo from me!

You can also see testimonials and more about the product at Probly.com as well as get a 7-day free trial (and 50% off on top with promo code FIRST).

Today, we’re back with a run through the day’s MLB bets, a revenge game for our email-exclusive WNBA bets and some interesting company and product insights. It’s your Probly Email for July 12th, 2024! - @ChrisSpags

• 🏀 MLB And WNBA Best Bets

• 🔓 Probly Updates: Trying To Gear Up For Football Season

As I mentioned up top, it’s been a very nice run for MLB bets lately, including a lot of 5-0 and 4-1 days and +1000 or better HRs over the last month+. So, despite the negative regression on a HUGE menu of bets yesterday, I’m still excited to see how today’s smaller card does:

Since we’ve got Summer League and WNBA going on — and I presume these will have to carry us through MLB All-Star break – let’s hit a mix of the various hoops for the email exclusive bets. Keep in mind: The Kings one at a 38% probability is a bit of a longshot relative to the rest.

Of course our best bets, probabilities, and PROBLY Scores are always updated all night and day so get more for yourself at Probly.com or on the App Store. Find the best bets on YOUR preferred sportsbook and win more in sports betting now!

New to Probly? Learn more about optimal settings for Probly, expected value/market-based betting, or see a product demo from me!

We’ve now had about two weeks of paywalling the whole app — or, at the very least, starting a trial on App Store or at Probly.com — and it does seem like the effects have been there. Our trial numbers have increased along with our user count. It could likely be better if I dial in the messaging on our new onboarding carousel but that’s a problem for a future time.

The downside is it does seem like there was some number of daily users who were using the site for free for a good amount of pageviews. I’m sure some of those people will convert to paying customers and that’s the primary goal for this point as we try to tighten things up to have success in NFL and NBA season.

At the same time, we’re trying to find a way to execute on some new features heading into the Fall. We’ve gotten about as far as we can with one potential investor but it’s a lot of sitting on pins and needles while waiting for their followups, as well as some upcoming pitches. We’re optimistic but, at this point, nothing is real until it’s signed and a wire hits our account.

One feature we want to build out for NFL season, in particular, requires some additional expenditure to bring to life. It’s the thing I really want to accomplish to give Probly a true “first” in the industry product that will allow us to reach more people. But it’s likely going to come down to the wire — and whether we get that other kind of wire to make it happen.

Similarly, one tech issue we’ve run into is that a portion (but not all) of our new Stripe 7-day trial users are having issue getting access with the trial. If you experience it, shoot us an email [email protected]; we’re fixing something we hope will solve it but there have been some headaches, particularly with people moving from App Store to our Stripe billing through the website.

Everything we’re doing is in service of making the product and the sales mechanisms for the product as effective as possible in time for the upcoming NFL and NBA seasons. If you have any feedback, feature requests, or issues, it’s a great time to let us know as we try to prioritize everything accordingly.

If you guys encounter any issues not covered here or want to provide feedback, you can email me [email protected].

As always, thanks to all of you who read all the way down here. It’s a stressful time right now but we know from the results and hearing from some of you guys that things are working, at least in terms of getting people better results.

It’s a great time to learn more about Probly and start a free trial at Probly.com! Get your head around the product in time for NFL season — or just fill the lack of MLB coming up with some WNBA, Summer League, Tennis, or Soccer. Stop researching, start winning! I’ll see you guys next week!