🏈Lamar Jackson Won't Let Us Down...Right?

Another week, another spin through the world of probabilities in sports awaits you!Last week was our most read Probly email yet so thank you to all of you guys for checking out what I'm putting together here. Between the increased efforts here with Probly as well as our product development efforts, increased content output for Splash Play, running everything at Football Outsiders, and some other guest spots I'm doing for my old pals at Stokastic, I'm as busy as I've been in a while. But I know the effort is going towards things I care about as well as places I can add unique value so I genuinely appreciate your support of what we're doing here.No Probly product updates this week as we wait for our final prototype's arrival before Thanksgiving so let's get right into the probabilities in NFL Week 11, college football, the NBA, and more in your Probly email for November 19th, 2022. - @ChrisSpags

• 🏈 Game-by-game preview of the most and least probable bets in NFL Week 11's games

• 👑 The most probable bets from college football, the NBA, and around the world!

I dumped all over Tom Brady a few weeks ago after blowing two straight games as the most probable winner according to top sportsbook markets around the world. But with guys like Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts losing in similar spots recently, maybe this is more of a reflection on the NFL's parity this season. It's something I know our Football Outsiders team said was a high likelihood dating back to the summer but it can be jarring to see in practice.That said: It is hard to imagine Lamar Jackson losing with the Ravens at a Week 11 best 84.2% probability to win at home versus Carolina. Mark Andrews' current game-time decision status could make it harder but a 13 point primary spread and just 14 points implied for the Panthers, one of the lowest totals of the year for Baker Mayfield and the gang, would make this one of the most colossal upsets of the year. Feel comfortable in your survivor leagues with Baltimore...unless that 15.8% probability hits.The rest of the top five: Ravens moneyline (1st half) at a 78.6% probability, a Niners win on Monday Night Football at Arizona at a 76.1% probability, a Bills win versus Cleveland in a game that will now take place in Detroit (assuming it does play with the snowfall making it tough to get out of Western New York) is at a 75.6% probability, and another Eagles win rounds it out at a 72.2% probability.

Here's everything else in NFL Week 11:

• Cleveland @ Buffalo - The 75.6% probability of a Bills win leads the way in a dominance narrative game where the top three bets are all Bills moneylines, including a 71.8% probability they lead after the 1st half and a 67.5% probability they lead after the 1st quarter. Bills-favoring alternate spreads for the 1st half aren't far behind. Again: Assuming the game plays, this should be one where the Bills survive despite some of the strangest and most adverse weather situation the NFL has had.

• LA Rams @ New Orleans - No Cooper Kupp, many problems. Rams +10.5 is the most probable outcome at a 74.9% probability followed by the game scoring under 45.5 points at a 69.5% probability. Maybe Allen Robinson has some life in his bones to replace the 34% of yards and 44% of touchdowns vacated by Cooper Kupp but top markets do not seem to have much faith at all with that noteworthy 25.1% chance they lose by more than 10 points.

• Philadelphia @ Indianapolis - This game scoring over 37.5 points leads the way with a 73.3% probability, just ahead of that Philadelphia win mentioned above at a 72.2% probability. Colts +14.5 is also in the top five at a 72% probability, a high bar for staying competitive. On paper, Jonathan Taylor for the Colts looks like a nice play given the lofty 48% rushing success rate allowed by the Eagles defense. But the game script could be a tough one for him if the Eagles accumulate a two touchdown or more lead.

• Carolina @ Baltimore - In addition to the Baltimore win at 84.7% probability there's also a 74.7% probability they win by 3.5 points and a 73.8% probability the game scores under 50.5 points. There's also a Panthers +17.5 in the top five at a 64.9% probability, a noteworthy bar set within the alternate spreads. There's some chance Carolina mucks this one up but it seems like it would be tough to envision a Panthers win — and if there is one, Baker Mayfield should immediately be tested for a horseshoe up his ass.

• Washington @ Houston - It seems likely to see a competitive game with Texans +10.5 the most probable event at a 72.4% probability. There's also a low game total bar with over 33.5 points the most probable alternate total at a 70.5% probability. Washington +3.5 isn't far behind at a 70.2% probability so perhaps Brian Robinson can luckbox his way to a usable fantasy football game against a Houston D who struggles mightily against the run.

• Chicago @ Atlanta - The game scoring under 56.5 points leads the way at a 70.2% probability followed by over 42.5 points leads the way at a 69.5% probability. With two soft defenses and these most probable alternate markets indicating a high likelihood for scoring, I think this game looks very underappreciated in terms of projected DraftKings ownership. Both teams have some flaws but their defenses have been particularly horrendous. Add in a dome and I personally think this is my game of the week to try to force exposure to, especially with the field likely to fall in love with Dallas-Minnesota.

• NY Jets @ New England - It's a clash of AFC East "powerhouses" and it looks likely to be competitive with Pats +3.5 leading the way at a 71.7% probability. There is a 71.5% probability that the game scores under 45.5 points and it seems likely to expect more defense than not. With Jets +10.5 at a 71.1% probability, I expect a competitive game but I don't think an absolute shootout happens very often.

• Detroit @ NY Giants - Lions +10.5 for the game is the most probable event at a 72.5% probability and there's a 71% probability it scores under 52.5 points. Giants +3.5 is also in the top five for the game at a 70.7% probability with over 38.5 points not far behind at a 68.7% probability. Both teams run the ball substantially over expectation so I expect scoring to come fairly easily, at least for the Giants, but these lines indicate the clock could just run out on a high scoring effort.

• Las Vegas @ Denver - Raiders +7.5 is the game's most probable outcome at a 68.9% probability, followed by a 68.7% probability the game scores over 34.5 points. The flip side of that outcome, the 31.3% probability it scores under 34.5, makes this somewhat scary given how impotent both offenses have been. Denver can score points against a soft Raiders defense that gives up a 31% increase in pass game DVOA but will they? I'll be there in some fantasy football lineups but am prepared for disappointment.

• Dallas @ Minnesota - Over 40.5 points leads the way with a 72.3% probability followed by a 69.8% probability of Vikings +7.5. The other most probable markets center around both teams covering a field goal spread at halftime, indicating a close game being expected. Many around the industry are treating this like a potential shootout — and nothing in the top markets around the world contradicts that — but I feel strongly that people will be too heavily invested into Ceedee Lamb and Justin Jefferson repeating what they did last week.

• Cincinnati @ Pittsburgh - Steelers +10.5 leads the way at a 70.4% probability, followed by Steelers +6 (1st half) at a 66.5% probability. Cincinnati +0.5 (1st quarter) is the only firmly pro-Cincinnati bet in the top five for the game at a 66.4% probability. The markets make this look like a potential Cincinnati letdown spot, interesting to note given high expected ownership for guys like Joe Mixon and Tee Higgins this week. Maybe something like Saints-Steelers last week?

• Kansas City @ LA Chargers - This AFC West battle was flexed to Sunday Night Football and it seems like there'll be scoring for at least one side. Chargers +14.5 is the most porbable outcome at a 75.6% probability with the game scoring over 42.5 points right behind at a 75.4% probability. The markets right now may be strongly leaning towards key weapons like Mike Williams and Keenan Allen not being available for the game while there looks to be zero impact for the Chiefs with the loss of Juju Smith-Schuster and Mecole Hardman.

• San Francisco @ Arizona - There's the aforementioned 76.1% probability of a 49ers win followed by a 70.6% chance the game scores over 36.5 points. There's also a 69.6% probability of it going under 50.5 points. This all seems to point towards not a lot of volatility in terms of a Niners win, albeit one that could see the Cardinals barely hang within two scores with Cardinals +14.5 at just a 66.1% probability.

Last Probly email saw Washington's pro team win as the biggest underdog in football against undefeated Philly. This week sees the other Washington's college football team as the most probable bet in sports with a 96.6% probability of a Huskies win versus 1-8 Colorado. We all know they're not the Pac 12 favorite in our hearts (fight on USC, beat those stupid Bruins) but a Most Likely award is truly an honor in its own tier.The rest of the global top five: A Bakken Bears win in Danish hoops at a 96.2% probability, something called SBK Samorin winning at a 95.2% probability in a game that's apparently going on as I type this (shame on me for not getting that hot ticket item out in advance), Jennersdorf Blackbirds win in what seems to be not-well-Google SEO'd Austrian basketball at a 95% probability, and a Mizzou win in college football at a rounded-up 95% probability.The rest of college football's top five include an Ohio State win at a 94.7% probability, a Georgia win at a 91.7% probability, and a Mizzou moneyline (1st half) at a 91.5% probability. A tremendous lack of respect for the New Mexico State Aggies with two Missouri moneylines in the top five. The USC-UCLA game's most probable event is USC +3 (1st half) at a 61.4% probability...close but no cigar.In the NBA, a Clippers win is at a 75.8% probability followed by Clippers moneyline (1st half) at a 69.7% probability. A Pacers win is in third with a 69.1% probability they beat Orlando on a back-to-back followed by a Hawks win at a 64.4% probability and the Clippers moneyline (1st quarter) at a 64.1% probability. It's not a weekend of particularly heavy NBA favorites.

In UFC tonight, Jack Della Maddalena leads the way with an 83.8% probability followed by a 75.6% probability that Maryna Moroz and Jennifer Maia's fight goes over 2.5 rounds. Yazmin Jauregui, Rafael Dos Anjos, and Raul Sosa Jr wins are the rest of the top five in UFC, all of which are on cards in December.We'll get hockey in the mix soon!

Another week wrapped up here and, as always, I appreciate each and every person who opened the email, let alone read down to this part of things.Stay safe out there with it being the season to get sick — I'm feeling a cold our baby boy Luka has been dealing with from daycare coming on as we type this — and I'll see you guys next week! Good luck and happy Thanksgiving to all you colonizers out there.