👑Jalen Hurts, Our Generation's Tom Brady

It's that time of the week to comb the top performing markets around the world to determine the probabilities of sports and, really, life, in the latest Probly Email!

This week, Tom Brady was kind enough to blow a game as a favorite on Thursday night instead of his usual Sunday so we can focus on other items that could thrive OR DISAPPOINT as massive favorites. Strap in to hear this one for as long as you follow Probly: It's all a game of probabilities and likelihoods and anything is always possible. Even the great Tom Brady blowing three games in a row in fairly historic fashion.There are some really compelling NFL games to discuss plus NBA, college football, the World Series and a KEY Probly product update for you ahead. This is your Probly email for October 29th 2022. - @ChrisSpags

• 🔑 Probly product updates

• 🏈 Game-by-game preview of the most and least probable bets in NFL Week 8's games

• 📈 The most probable events in NBA, college football, and the World Series

By now you've likely figured out the core of what we want to do with Probly: Knowledge accumulation and low-lift mathematical profitability by using top performing sportsbooks' data from around the world to identify inefficiencies at your local legal sportsbook.What you may not know is my personal goal: To save sports betting from itself.

Yes anyone can pick a side of a bet and win half the time. That's the point of establishing odds and lines. But beyond that it is all SO COMPLICATED and so daunting for a person who jumps in and doesn't want to spend their Malcolm Gladwell-certified 10,000 hours to learn how to not hemorrhage money doing this. So we wanted to make a product that takes advanced concepts and high-level data to make it so simple that even your local idiot in a bar could find good bets.We've now dialed in on a core product with the help of our UX firm, BTI Labs, to accomplish that. It all boils down to one thing: Do you think a bet will Probly happen? Or Probly Not? A click of the button will tell the world how you feel about the Bucs losing this week — and allow you to compete against friends and everyone else on our platform. If you want to actually take that bet, a simple swipe right or left will take you to the best odds we can find on every sportsbook app to back it with your money. If you never want to place a bet, you can just swipe away and declare bets of every type Probly or Probly Not for as long as you desire.This app will make you smarter. It'll be fun when you're on the toilet. It will help you win money, either directly by effortless action or by teaching you to fish as you spend time clicking away. We're putting a Ferrari engine in a go-cart in the best way and giving you the power of sites that cost literally a thousand dollars a month in the simplest, most delightful user experience possible.I am so stoked for you all to get your hands on our prototype and our beta version over the course of the next few weeks to months. For now: Just know I have never felt more steeled in my confidence in what we're doing here as well as more anxious to make sure it reaches its full potential. Tell a friend to get on the list now!

In a wide variety of ways, we can all agree on one thing: Jalen Hurts is no Tom Brady.And that likely extends to this week where an Eagles win has an 80.4% probability in their Pennsylvania battle versus the Steelers. Will he blow the game amidst one of Philly's hottest runs (entirely spurred on by me being moved here due to the birth of our lil baby Luka)? It doesn't feel likely. Much like the Phillies and James Harden engaged with an employee at a strip club, the Eagles feel like they belong to Destiny.The Bills are also right there in terms of most likely bets with a slightly lower 80.3% probability to win outright on Sunday Night Football versus Green Bay. Josh Allen is also no Tom Brady.Round out the top 5: A 79.1% probability that the Cowboys win against the Bears aka the Tony Pollard Show, a Bills 1st half moneyline with a 75.9% probability, and an Eagles 1st half moneyline with a 74.8% probability. Eagles, Bills, and Cowboys dominance is the theme of the week. Will it be more bankable than TB12 Divided By 2 was in the last few weeks? We'll find out.

Here's everything else in NFL Week 8:

• Denver @ Jacksonville - In this AM game in ye olde London town (tally ho pip pip, etc), the most probable events are Jags +3 (1st half) at a 67.9% probability and Jags +0.5 (1st quarter) at a 64.7% probability. Broncos +5 for the game is also in the top 5 at a 62.1% probability. The most likely outcome seems to be a one-touchdown game with some volatility depending upon the success of Russell Wilson's intercontinental flight high-knees.

• Miami @ Detroit - This game is CRUCIAL in fantasy football this week. There is a 73.1% probability the game goes over 43.5 points, which means you should have at least 26.9% of lineups accounting for a dud. Dolphins +3.5 has a 74% probability as the top bet in the game, meaning it is likely both teams remain within ssstriking distance throughout. There is a 33.3% chance the game scores under 22.5 points in the first half; I say this to keep in mind that while, on paper, this game looks like an absolute shootout, there is a non-insignificant chance the scoring isn't there even if the yardage is.

• Green Bay @ Washington - Green Bay +3.5 leads the way with a 76.3% probability while the game going under 49.5 points is the second highest probability event at a 71.1% likelihood. Despite the lack of Carson Wentz and perennial backup Taylor Heinecke starting for Washington, it seems like the Commanders may hang in long enough to put the fear of God in our Ayahuasca-infused antihero Aaron Rodgers.

• Arizona @ Minnesota - A Vikings win is the most probable event on the board with a 63.7% probability, which means a lot of overall uncertainty within the game even for alternate markets. Arizona +6.5 in the first half also has a surprisingly low 62.8% probability as the #2 most likely event in the game. These markets read like a game where Minnesota scores early and often only for the Cardinals to possibly climb back into it. Overall these are some of the lowest probability markets across the board I've seen so far this season.

• Las Vegas @ New Orleans - Over 21 points (1st half) is the game's most probable event with a 63.5% probability. You also have Raiders +3 (1st half) not far behind at a 63.3% probabiility. Raiders +3 and Saints +3.5 for the game round out the top five with a 62.3% and 61% probability respectively. Another potentially volatile game seems afoot, albeit one that has a good chance to stay within a field goal's range.

• Carolina @ Atlanta - The alternate markets are popping here with Carolina +14.5 a game-high 76.2% probability. Falcons +3.5 isn't far behind at a 75.6% probability. There is a very low probability of a shootout with the game under 47.5 points at a 68.3% probability. A shootout here only happens less than a third of the time. But when it does happen, it could pay off in DraftKings, FanDuel and Underdog slates this weekend.

• Chicago @ Dallas - The dominance narrative is in play here with Cowboys moneylines atop the game's most probable outcomes, a 79.1% probability to win, a 73.5% probability to lead in the 1st half, and a 70.2% probability to lead after the 1st quarter.

• New England @ NY Jets - Jets +7.5 leads the way in the game with a 69.2% probability with the game scoring over 35.5 points a bit behind at a 65% probability. Pats +3 (1st half) is another top probability at 66.5%. The most likely outcomes seem to be a middling game with New England in control throughout.

• Pittsburgh @ Philadelphia - The expectation is Eagles dominance here as well. Eagles moneyline leads at 80.4% probability, Eagles moneyline (1st half) is there at a 74.8% probability, and Eagles moneyline (1st quarter) is third with a 71.2% probability. There's even a not-insane chance of a blowout with a 29.3% chance the Eagles win -17.5.

• Tennessee @ Houston - There's not much interesting here. Texans +4.5 (1st half) leads the way with a 65.6% probability, followed by Titans +0.5 (1st quarter) at a 64.5% probability and Texans +4 (1st half) at a 63.8% probability. Texans +5 for the game has a 61% probability so it seems overall likely to be competitive with perhaps a faint chance it's competitive and high scoring.

• San Francisco @ LA Rams - The game scoring over 34.5 points leads the way with a 71.5% probability. Rams +7.5 is #2 in terms of likelihood with a 70.5% probability, followed by the game going under 47.5 points at a 66.6% probability. I fell for this trap to some extent last week with the Niners versus Kansas City but there is a high likelihood here that the game really plays defensively minded.

• NY Giants @ Seattle - The game scoring under 53.5 points leads the way with a 73.3% probability (though, as I always have to point out, for fantasy purposes that means there is a 26.7% chance it scores more than that and is the game you need. Seahawks +3.5 is the #2 event at a 70.7% probability with other pro-Seahawks cover lines not far behind it firsst the 1st half and 1st quarter. The Giants play games closely and the Seahawks are feisty so this game seems likely to be competitive with a not-insignificant chance of fireworks.

• Washington @ Indianapolis - Washington +7.5 leads the way with a 69.3% probability. The game scoring over 32.5 points isn't far behind with a nice flat 69% probability. With Taylor Heinicke and Sam Ehlinger at QB, this is a significant likelihood that the game scores under that mark.

• Green Bay @ Buffalo - We've got that lofty number for a Bills win leading the way but Bills -3.5 for the game also has a 70.6% probability. There's a 70.5% probability the game goes under 53.5 points and that feels more likely to come from the Packers' offensive ineptitude. This could be an ugly Aaron Rodgers meltdown on Sunday Night Football.

• Cincinnati @ Cleveland - No JaMarr Chase, some problem? There's a 71.8% probability this Monday Night Football game scores under 53.5 points with the stud receiver likely to miss the game. The Bengals are likely to be within striking distance throughout with Bengals +3.5 tracking as a 71.7% probability and Browns +7.5 at a 66% probability. It should be a competitive game but perhaps one with a chance of being more defensively minded based on these markets.

Thankfully (or sadly?) this week we'll touch an actual sport you may be able to bet on as the current most likely in the world. Game kicks off at 7PM tonight and a Boise State win is the most probable event in the world at a 94.8% probability. The Blue Field being iconic yet still a remarkably annoying? 100% probability.

In other College Football games that haven't kicked off, a San Jose win leads the way with a 93.3% probability followed by a Michigan win at a 91.6% probability and a Georgia win at a 91.4% probability. A USC win has a 82.7% probability in a dominance narrative game with 1st half and 1st quarter moneylines if you want to know my personal index of college football happiness.

In the World Series, the highest probability events are that the Phillies/Astros score is over 3.5 runs at an 82.1% probability with a 78.6% probability the game scores under 10.5 runs. The Phillies are also unlikely to get smoked after their stunning comeback last night with Phillies +3 at a 77.7% probability. Lucky 7s seems about right for this Phillies year (and the bandwagon fans surrounding my home).

And in the NBA, expect a Warriors win with an 81.9% probability, a Mavs win is #2 with an 80.5% probability, and a Nets win is at a 80.4% probability. Dominance narrative for the markets is in play with the Nets and Mavs since they also have high probabilities to lead at halftime with 73.4% and 72.6% probabilities respectively.

Another week here in the books with hopefully some helpful information to go off of. I was able to get our darling baby to nap while hitting the email finish line as I do my one good husbandly duty for the week so Alex can go out to brunch so there's a decent probability of some NBA 2K to come for me while on monitor duty. The dad in your life will get it —make them sign up for this email/waitlist, even if it's by force!But seriously as always, feel free to forward the email to a friend and tell them to get on our list if they want to get better at understanding the world of betting and get first access to our product. I'll be back around this same time next week so good luck everyone!