💎 Are There Hidden Gems For Week 10? (Plus 40% Off A Probly Sub)

It’s a huge Probly email today where I won’t bury the lede: Our Most Profitable sorting and paid subscriptions are live NOW at Probly.com/subscribe and you, as a brilliant person who is on our mailing list, get access to the best deal we’ll offer with 40% OFF ANY PROBLY+ PACKAGE. Use the promo code FIRST at Probly.com/subscribe and check the Product Updates below for more details.

But no time to waste here as always with things like that going on. Let’s get started with your Probly Email for November 10th, 2023! - @ChrisSpags

• 🔓 Probly Product Updates: For the Love of God Please Subscribe

• 🔮 Predicting the future with the Most Probable events of NFL Week 10

As I mentioned above, you can now get a paid subscription to Probly.com (that we’re uniquely calling Probly+) at Probly.com/subscribe and save 40% off with promo code FIRST. Here’s what that will do for you:

-In either our $19.99/month Probly+ package or our $49.99 Probly+ Live package, you can now sort by Most Profitable (or Least Profitable) on our Markets page and our Explore page. This will allow you to find the best bets in any game, sport, or league QUICKLY and — as is the case with a lot of our functionalities given the volume of data — functions best if you filter down by league.

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-This discount will apply for our monthly packages OR our yearly ones but it will only apply for your first cycle. So you’d get half off $19.99/month or $49.99/month half off your first year of $199.99 or $499.99. We strongly believe the package will pay for itself no matter which option you choose and we hope it also shows how much we want to get you on board to earn your trust and business with a discount this deep for our first customers.

We’ve also rolled out other minor changes this week that are relevant to you:

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Now here’s why we’re doing all we’re doing:

To raise money in the past, you needed a good idea and a deck if you had domain expertise, maybe a demo of a product if you didn’t. Now, you need to show that people are willing to pay for your product (even though you often need money to build the things that make people want to pay for your product, sick league) and that it can grow and scale relative to that revenue.

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Do it ➡️ Probly.com/subscribe, promo code FIRST for 40% off any package (go for the annual Probly+ Live one if you really want to do us a mitzvah while saving yourself up to $250).

If you guys encounter any issues not covered here or want to provide feedback, you can email me [email protected].

NFL Week 10 is upon us and it comes with the biggest favorite of the year as the Dallas Cowboys face third-string rookie QB Tommy DeVito, one of the worst QBs I’ve laid mine eyes upon in quite some time.

A Cowboys win comes with a college football-level 91% probability against the Giants, who might be one of the worst teams in football the rest of the way. The Cowboys blew a similarly favorited spot against Joshua Dobbs and the Cardinals earlier this year but let’s just say DeVito is no Dobbs (which is not a sentence I’d have ever thought needs to be said).

Let’s go game by game and mix in some +EV bets via our PROBLY Score where applicable. Here’s your NFL Week 10 Most Probable:

• Indianapolis (-2) at New England (42.5 O/U) — Top five most probable: Mike Gesicki under 0.5 TDs at an 84% probability, Juju Smith-Schuster under 0.5 TDs at a 78% probability, Indianapolis Colts +3 (1st half) at a 62% probability, Colts +3 at a 59% probability, and Jonathan Taylor under 2.5 receptions at a 58% probability.
  
  What this means: A lot of unders but two +3 spreads for the Colts’ half and full game mean a likely ugly but competitive game. Over 41.5 is just outside the top five at a 56% probability so there is something of a safe expectation of scoring. There’s also a high bar alternate total of Under 45.5 at a 56% probability so maybe there is hope for some production, just not from Gesicki or Juju.

• Cleveland (+6.5) at Baltimore (38 O/U) — Top five most probable: Nelson Agholor under 0.5 TDs at an 87% probability, Lamar Jackson under 0.5 TDs (rush/rec) at a 70% probability, Lamar Jackson under 1.5 passing TDs at a 64% probability, Amari Cooper over 3.5 receptions at a 59% probability, and Mark Andrews under 4.5 receptions at a 59% probability.
  
  What this means: It doesn’t look great for Lamar, that’s for sure. Cleveland’s D has been a world beater this year besides an abberation versus Indy but this is a lot of certainty against one of the NFL’s most dynamic offenses. Either way, there is definitely a market expectation of a classic AFC North slogfest.

• Houston (+6.5) at Cincinnati (47 O/U) — Top five most probable: Bengals moneyline (1st half) at a 67% probability, Bengals moneyline (1st quarter) at a 65% probability, CJ Stroud under 0.5 INTs at a 59% probability, Joe Burrow over 1.5 passing TDs at a 59% probability, and Under 50.5 at a 59% probability.
  
  What this means: FWIW, Bengals win would be on top at about a 70% probability but it was pulled as I wrote this. It does seem like the Under 50.5 line could mean this game does live up to the shootout potential some are expecting after Houston slung it all over the field last week. This will be a very popular game for fantasy and there is nothing in these alternates that make me feel like fading it is a good idea, especially with a more concentrated offense for Cincinnati with no Tee Higgins.

• New Orleans (-3) at Minnesota (40.5 O/U) — Top five most probable: Vikings +1.5 (1st half) at a 58% probability (and a 7.5 PROBLY Score at -115 odds), Over 17.5 (1st half) at a 57% probability, Jordan Addison over 3.5 receptions at a 57% probability, Under 43 at a 56% probability, and Michael Thomas over 3.5 receptions at a 56% probability.
  
  What this means: It looks good for Jordan Addison with Josh Dobbs behind center; Addison over 49.5 receiving yards also has a 55% probability and a 1.6 PROBLY Score at -120 odds (and is a good bet for an Underdog Pick’em with that 55% win rate that you need for each leg of a five-leg). There is a high bar over/under here relatively speaking with that Under 43 line so that means there’s some chance of increased shootout potential, which is definitely the case for more games this week than last (where it was basically Houston-Tampa Bay).

• Green Bay (+3.5) at Pittsburgh (39 O/U) — Top five most probable: Christian Watson under 0.5 TDs at a 76% probability, Kenny Pickett under 1.5 passing TDs at a 69% probability, AJ Dillon under 1.5 receptions at a 62% probability, Connor Heyward under 2.5 receptions at a 57% probability, and George Pickens under 3.5 at a 57% probability.
  
  What this means: Green Bay and Pittsburgh are two teams who have greatly disappointed my prognostication this off-season and there’s nothing here that screams I should expect improvement. At least Kenny Pickett might throw for 1 TD is a good sign for Steelers fans. But this seems like a gross one with nothing supporting an outlier scoring effort in these markets.

• San Francisco (-3) at Jacksonville (45 O/U) — Top five most probable: Evan Engram under 0.5 TDs at a 73% probability, Evan Ingram over 4.5 receptions at a 61% probability, Niners win at a 59% probability, Under 46.5 at a 56% probability, and Deebo Samuel under 4.5 receptions at a 56% probability.
  
  What this means: The Under 46.5 alternate total does show potential for some increase in scoring, albeit not much. These are two quality defenses so any positive sign from the markets is a noteworth reflection. Engram’s TD prop isn’t a fantastic one but his receptions one may be a good sign for an outlier day at TE. I don’t expect much of this game but maybe a defensive TD is afoot given the total and no positive, high probability over markets.

• Tennessee (+1) at Tampa Bay (39 O/U) — Top five most probable: Kyle Phillips under 2.5 receptions at a 62% probability, Over 6.5 (1st quarter) at a 59% probability, Titans +3 at a 59% probability, Baker Mayfield under 1.5 passing TDs at a 57% probability, and Baker Mayfield under 242.5 passing yards at a 55% probability.
  
  What this means: I really had some hope this game could have shootout potential like Houston-Tampa Bay did last week but the lack of quality overs and alternate total doesn’t give me much faith there. It does seem like we should expect a competitive game but maybe one that errs on the side of defensively minded and/or ugly than one where Will Levis slings four TDs.

• Detroit (-3) at LA Chargers (48.5 O/U) —  Top five most probable: Jahmyr Gibbs under 0.5 TDs at a 69% probability, Josh Reynolds under 2.5 receptions at a 61% probability, Justin Herbert under 0.5 INTs at a 56% probability, Sam LaPorta over 4.5 receptions at a 56% probability, and Lions moneyline (1st quarter) at a 55% probability.
  
  What this means: The lack of a high-bar alternate total is interesting since this game is definitely one where people will expect outlier offensive production. There still can be some, particularly on the Lions’ side against a weak Chargers defense. I still like the game, definitely like Sam LaPorta, and weep for the Jahmyr Gibbs backers out there who will be bummed to see his role immediately evaporate with David Montgomery back.

• Atlanta (-1.5) at Arizona (43 O/U) — Top five most probable: Kyler Murray under 1.5 passing TDs at a 65% probability, Cardinals +3 (1st half) at a 62% probability, Bijan Robinson under 0.5 player TDs at a 62% probability, Taylor Heinicke under 1.5 passing TDs at a 62% probability, and Bijan Robinson under 3.5 receptions at a 60% probability.
  
  What this means: Well it doesn’t look like a great return for Kyler, even if that Cardinals +3 line does seem like there is an expectation to keep it close. The Bijan Robinson lines look particularly bad for the people who want Arthur Smith to use him like the draft capital indicated they might. I hope they find peace in these tumultuous times.

• NY Giants (+17) at Dallas (39 O/U) — Top five most probable: Dallas win at a 91% probability, Tommy DeVito over 0.5 INTs at a 66% probability, Darius Slayton under 2.5 receptions at a 60% probability, CeeDee Lamb over 5.5 receptions at a 58% probability, and Under 21.5 (1st half) at a 57% probability.
  
  What this means: Dallas’s first half and first quarter moneylines are down as I write this so I presume those would be not far behind the Win probability if they were live. Overall though, it looks a lot like the Giants getting nothing going with some expectation of at least one shot for a pick-six for Dallas’s D with that Tommy DeVito INT prop. One bet to note that isn’t a plus-EV one but is relevant for fantasy: Tony Pollard over 0.5 touchdowns has a 55% probability. That’s awfully high so this could be his redemption spot after a month or more of bad games.

• Washington (+6) at Seattle (44.5 O/U) — Top five most probable: Jake Bobo under 0.5 TDs at an 87% probability, Seahawks win at a 71% probability, Terry McLaurin under 0.5 TDs at a 68% probability, Over 43.5 at a 57% probability, and Sam Howell under 2.5 passing TDs.
  
  What this means: Some sharp people out there have earmarked this oen as a potential shootout game and there is an Under 47.5 at a 56% probability right behind the top five so maybe it can get there. But there’s nothing screaming offensive explosion here, even if the Over 43.5 line does give you some confidence in the floor.

• NY Jets (+1) at Las Vegas (36.5 O/U) — Top five most probable: Jakobi Meyers under 0.5 TDs at a 76% probability, Zach Wilson under 1.5 passing TDs at a 68% probability, Jets +3 at a 59% probability, and Over 6.5 (1st quarter) at a 56% probability.
  
  What this means: Well this one looks gross and bad for Zach Wilson with another potential implosion on national TV in a row. This is the Sunday Night Football game this week that they somehow didn’t flex out and it appears like one where we should all suffer.  

• Denver (+7.5) at Buffalo (46.5 O/U) — Top five most probable: Bills moneyline at a 74% probability, Josh Allen under 0.5 TDs (rush/rec) at a 63% probability, Josh Allen over 1.5 passing TDs at a 62% probability, Khalil Shakir over 2.5 receptions at a 61% probability, and Russell Wilson under 21.5 rushing yards at a 56% probability (and a 2.2 PROBLY Score at -120 odds).
  
  What this means: Josh Allen might look like the safest play in the history of Monday Night Football Showdowns on DraftKings with the high likelihood of a multi-TD game (even if he doesn’t run one in). The Bills should crush a Broncos team that simply cannot defend the pass and they could hang a lot of points here.

Apologies to the fans of other sports but that NFL writeup likely takes up MORE than enough space for this email. The good news? If you want your favorite sports’ best bets, you can now go grab them for yourself whenever you please at Probly.com! Here’s the best way to use it:

1️⃣ Scroll through all of our available markets
2️⃣ Click the Probability number (or swipe right) to see what the markets are saying is the “true probability” of a bet to win as well as what the current best available odds are
3️⃣ If you can find odds aligned with the best odds out there and it has a positive PROBLY Score (especially over a 2.0), take the bet! Taking +EV bets will win you more money than it loses you! If not, you can still take the bet but be careful because negative PROBLY Score bets over time can fully deplete your bankroll.

There we have it, another one in the books. I have to get more comfortable with shilling since Probly is my and my best friend’s lifeblood now so I WON’T APOLOGIZE for reminding you that if you go to Probly.com/subscribe and use promo code FIRST you can get 40% off on ANY package, including yearly ones for up to a $250 savings. It’s the best deal we’ll ever have in here and I really do hope some of you will take advantage to be the first guinea pigs slash founding fathers of what we hope Probly can be.

That pretty much sums it up for the week. Give a subscription a chance if you’ve got the means and it will pay for itself, that is our promise to you. Thanks to all of those who read down here as always and good luck!