➗Divisional Round Is A Tale Of Two Days

It was a killer Wild Card round where we were able to snuff out the upsets and lock in on the favorites who stood very little chance to blow it. In this Divisional Round with four games left, it is another tale of two cities (or a Garfield tale of two kitties) with one day full of VERY likely winners and one day full of near coin-tosses.Strap in for all the NFL you can handle plus some key product updates and more around the world of sports. This is your Probly email for January 21st, 2023! - @ChrisSpags

• 📱 Probly's available sports leagues revealed

• 🏈 Game-by-game preview of the most and least probable bets in the NFL Wild Card games

• 👑 The most probable bets from the NBA, UFC, and whatever else seems interesting!

It's been a while since we've had a true product update in this email and things are still on track for that pre-Super Bowl beta launch. But obviously the second the Super Bowl ends, we'll need other things to provide you guys to ensure that you have a bevy of bets to look at any given day (and many profitable opportunities to justify upgrading to a premium account).So here's an exciting and crucial update one: We have agreed to terms with a premier odds data provider to give us a read on the legal sportsbook coverage we will have throughout 2023 and heading into 2024. That includes:NFL, MLB, NBA, NHL, College Football, College Basketball, NASCAR, PGA, MMA, Tennis, and Soccer. While we also have access to international data — those very esoteric teams I've mentioned as the Most Probable in the World in these emails — it's unlikely you'll have many legal live betting opportunities for now around those. So we're focusing our efforts on everything you can easily find action on and also trying to pay attention to some underserved categories with NASCAR, Tennis, Golf (there are NOT a lot of good expected value golf betting tools out there), and the NHL.Long-term, it's my dream to be able to present the probabilities for every single sporting event in the world as well as actionable betting opportunities for them too. For now though, we are very excited to be able to bring all of these to you and make sure we really nail the integration for all of them. Your feedback will be very welcome (and if someone is a paying customer and dying for eSports or Tunisian soccer, we'll always do our best to figure it out).

Our read on the market was very strong through the Wild Card round and, once again, it does feel like the markets are pushing towards somewhat obvious results if you can wrap your head around them.The most probable outcome for the Divisional Round will not be a shock: A Chiefs win over the Jags is up to a 79.8% probability, a case where Trevor Lawrence and the gang are likely not ready for a juggernaut Chiefs offense. Jags-Chiefs scoring over 41.5 points is a shocking #2 probability for the week at a 78.6% probability followed by an Eagles win over the Giants at a 76.7% probability, Bills +3.5 versus the Bengals at a 76.4% probability, and 49ers +3.5 at a 73.3% probability.If you're a regular email of the Probly email, you know what seeing those +3.5 lines means for those games. For everyone else: I'll explain as we go game-by-game:

• Jacksonville @ Kansas City - This one reads like Chiefs dominance across the board. That Chiefs win leads the way at a 79.8% probability followed by the over 41.5 points at a 78.6% probability. Then you get Chiefs moneyline (1st half) at a 72.2% probability, Chiefs -3.5 for the game at a 68% probability, and Chiefs moneyline (1st quarter) at a 65.9% probability. This all means that the top markets around the globe perceive the Chiefs' worst possible outcome as "maybe it's hard for them to win by just a field goal." It'd be a shocker if the Chiefs drop this one.

• NY Giants @ Philadelphia - This is another one that feels like you can put it in the books before it starts. We have that Eagles win at a 76.9% probability, then over 39.5 points at a 73.2% probability, and an Eagles moneyline (1st half) at a 71% probability. Then you'll find Giants +14.5 at a 68.4% probability and, much like the Chiefs, Eagles -3.5 at a 66.4% probability. Once again, this means the Giants are likely to keep it within two touchdowns but the worst case scenario for the Eagles is to be able to win by only a field goal. Next round will get MUCH tougher for both the Chiefs and Eagles but a loss by either this week would really be a tough needle to thread based on this data.

• Cincinnati @ Buffalo - As mentioned above, Bills +3.5 is most likely here at a 76.4% probability. That is a sign to expect a dogfight from the opponent with the possibility the Bills lose by a late kick. But the markets still favor the Bills by a decent bit. You have a Bills win at a 69.1% probability, Bills +0.5 (1st half) at a 67.9% probability, Bills +0.5 (1st quarter) at a 66.1% probability, and a Bills moneyline (1st half) at a 65.4% probability. This all seems to indicate that the markets expect the Bills to remain in control throughout but the Bengals should be in the hunt by the end. I view this one as a coin toss game where my heart says Bengals but my brain says Bills.

• Dallas @ San Francisco - This game reads a lot like Bengals-Bills with a clear favorite in the Niners but a lot of volatility built into these top markets. Once again, we get Niners +3.5 up top at a 73.3% probability, which does reflect that unlucky outcome of a Cowboys field goal win. You then get the game over 39.5 points at a 71.2% probability (which is a little worrisome for the 28.8% chance the game scores less than that but doesn't matter that much). You get Cowboys +10.5 at a 70% probability and Niners +0.5 (1st quarter) at a 66.4% probability to close out the top five. That Cowboys alternate spread gives me some concern that the Cowboys could need to fight to keep themselves within a 10 point range. They're live for an upset, absolutely, but it does feel like Bengals-Bills would be more live to interpety as

Once again, the winner for most probable lies abroad with a CCC Polkowice win at a 96.2% probability. But you're not the most likely to find Polish women's hoops on your DraftKings or FanDuel Sportsbooks so let's go to the NBA.Anthony Edwards and the woebegotten Timberwolves have had a tough year post-Rudy Gobert trade. But nothing helps you get right more than a game against the Rockets which has a Wolves win at a 74.5% probability. Then we get a Hawks win at a 71.7% probability, a Wizards win at a 70.5% probability, and 1st half moneylines for the Wolves and Hawks at a 68.8% probability and 66.4% probability respectively.There's a mid-level UFC card tonight and it looks like a Jailton Almeida win leads the way at a big 88% probability. Then you have a Josiane Nunes win at an 81.5% probability, a Jessica Andrade win at an 80.7% probability, a Gilbert Burns win atb an 80.2% probability, and a Thiago Moses win at a 76.5% probability. These are VERY heavy favorites relative to a typical UFC card.

Another one in the books and, as always, anyone who makes it to this part of the email gets all my love and admiration and a special secret prize: Me saying goodbye for the week!Have a great weekend and I'll see you guys next week for our last round of NFL playoffs before the SUPER BOWL!