⭐️Dak And The Boys To Crush On SNF?

It's Saturday morning, a rainy dreary day here outside of Philly where my hopes and dreams for USC were DASHED last night by Utah. A fun fact: My last USC game in LA last year before we moved East for the sake of our then-incoming baby Luka was also against Utah...and they SMOKED us then too, to the point that the mostly gracious Utah fans in attendance couldn't help put awkwardly talk sh*t. And now here we are, with a hobbled would-be Heisman winner who couldn't throw as well after getting an owwy on his pinky finger, and I am sad! Two losses to the same team, blowing our first shot at a National Championship since my glory days with Matt Leinart, Reggie Bush, and Pete Carroll. It's a bummer.But that's the nature of sports and, in some ways, what inspired me to create Probly. It's all a game of probabilities. So USC and I will lick our wounds and we're both going to get out there and play ball — them literally, me by typing up data points. Same diff. So let's get right into it all in your Probly email for December 3rd, 2022! - @ChrisSpags

• 📆 A potential release date for Probly's MVP

• 🏈 Game-by-game preview of the most and least probable bets in NFL Week 13's games

• 👑 The most probable bets from college football's hurtful Conference Championship Weekend, the NBA, and around the world!

So we've finished our design MVP and now begin the laborious process of turning that design into reality while also tightening up our data connections, sportsbook marketplace comparisons, and other product features I haven't even told you about yet. That's the good news!But it looks like we're now locked into a timeline that will push our full public release to right before the Super Bowl. It's a good thing with that being the time of year people bet the most. It's a bad thing because I'm impatient and want to get this in everyone's hands. It's mostly a symptom of us building this with just me funding it out of my own non-riches as we go, particularly with a lot of investors we've had conversations with largely ramping down business until the New Year. When I launched this email and waitlist, I promised you guys all the candor in the world about what it means to build this Probly company and what we're putting into it. That includes the disappointments and things that, frankly, just aren't as feasible without limitless resources as I feel they should be. So while it does seem likely we will still hit our goal of getting you guys a beta product in January and our guys are grinding as hard as possible to make that a reality, I would have liked it sooner for everyone's sake.Either way, we are strapped in to work through the holidays and I am going to do my best to cajole anyone and everyone to get it all aligned for a flawless experience. It's all I can do and all I would ever want to do for something I am putting my blood, sweat, tears, and every spare dollar into. Hang tight. We will not let you down.

As a Cowboys fan in name (thanks to my inadvertently Freudian decision to root for the Boys as a child due to my dad being a Giants fan — only to see then-rookie Troy Aikman be stretchered out by Lawrence Taylor, leading to my first sports tears), I do NOT expect world beater status from them. I grew used to them being awful for most of my formative years after their 90s Super Bowl run, of course being taunted along the way.

Has the tide turned in 2022? It could be, especially if the Cowboys avoid a national TV failure against the Colts. According to the top markets around the world, a Cowboys win leads NFL Week 13 with an 80.4% probability. I'm not sure if it's that Cowboys cynicism that makes me feel less secure about this one compares to some of the Patrick Mahomes or Josh Allen matchups we've talked about here (never Tom Brady). But a shutdown D with a potent offense should be enough to push them past Jeff Saturday's feisty Colts — even if it's only going to set up for more disappointment come playoff time.A Ravens win versus Denver is #2 for the week with a 77.7% probability, a Cowboys moneyline (1st half) is in third at 74.8% probability, a Browns win is at a 73.7% probability in Deshaun Watson's troubled return to Houston, and a Ravens moneyline (1st half) closes out the top five at a 73% probability.

Here's everything else in NFL Week 13:

• Denver @ Baltimore - Including the bets mentioned above, it's all dominance narrative for Baltimore. The 3rd most probable bet is Ravens moneyline (1st quarter) at a 69.6% probability and Ravens first half spreads of -1.5 and -2.5 around 65% probabilities. Everything about the markets — including a season-low 15.5 implied points for Denver — indicates Denver could call it quits on the year starting with this game. If you know something they don't, you'll be in a very small minority.

• Pittsburgh @ Atlanta - This game seems intersting on paper for fantasy football but the markets don't show a lot of love. Steelers +7.5 is most probable at a 72.1% probability, followed by the game scoring over 36.5 at a 68.1% probability. That does mean there's a passable floor but it's a scary shot the game goes under that mark. There's a decent alternate spread in third with the game under 49.5 points at a 68% probability — which you know, as a savvy Probly email reader, means that there's a decent 32% chance it outperforms. It feels like a tight needle to thread to expect a shootout.

• Green Bay @ Chicago - This game feels not dissimilar from that Pittsburgh-Atlanta one; on paper, both defenses are bad enough to give up big scores. Yet the markets seem less bullish than they should be. Packers +3.5 is the most probable event at a 71.2% probability while the game scoring over 37.5 is in second with a 71.2% probability. Then there's a 66% probability the game goes under 50.5 points. It could be wise to temper expectations on your DraftKings or fantasy football lineups. It feels like an upside game based on both teams giving up lofty increases in EPA and Football Outsiders' DVOA but the questionable motivation for both sides could provide some downside risk.

• NY Jets @ Minnesota - A competitive game seems like the most likely market outlook. Vikings +3.5 is the most probable event at a 68.8% probability. This means that, even if things break badly for Minnesota, they shouldn't lose by more than a field goal. Jets +6 (1st half) is the next most probable at a 67.1% probability. That does indicate this could be a comeback story for Mike White and the gang, which is something that could benefit surging rookie receiver Garrett Wilson. I personally think the Jets are live for an upset on the road and nothign the markets tell me indicates otherwise.

• Jacksonville @ Detroit - This game will be crucial on the daily fantasy sites this week and I love the second most probable bet. The game scoring under 58.5 points has a 69.2% probability, which is an incredibly lofty line to set as the high bar. The most probable bet is Jaguars +7.5 at a 72.1% probability, which means we're most likely to be within a touchdown's range. There is some risk both teams slog it out but I think the correct way to play this is to hope for a shootout and to capture some unique combination of players to rise within that (and it could be anyone since both defenses stink).

• Tennessee @ Philadelphia - Eagles +3.5 leads the way with a 74.4% probability, which is interesting since it does mean there is a faint chance the Titans can steal a win by a field goal. The game scoring under 51.5 points is #2 with a 70.1% probability followed by the game scoring over 37.5 points at a 69.8% probability. It feels like this all portends the Titans being capable of keeping the game within range and actually producing a little above average. The common consensus would be the one way they win is Derrick Henry going off and running out the clock but it's possible they can trade blows better than expected based on these markets.

• Washington @ NY Giants - Washington +3 (1st half) is among the most probable vets at a 65.8% probability followed by Giants +5 for the game at a 63.3% probability. All these alternate markets are along the same lines. There seems to be low confidence in the scoring potential — the most probable event is the game scoring under 47.5 points at a 70.2% probability — but a high expectation of the game hanging within one touchdown. This all feels ugly and I would personally not be opposed to targeting a Washington win.

• Cleveland @ Houston - It's all Cleveland dominance narrative in this one with the Browns win at 75.6% probability, the Browns +0.5 (1st quarter) at 71.4% probability, the Browns moneyline (1st half) next at a 70.6% probability, and under 51.5 points closing us out at a a 65.6% probability. Maybe Houston puts up a fight against a guy who really put their team — and the greater masseuse industry — through a lot of BS but it does seem unlikely the Browns blow this game.

• Seattle @ LA Rams - No Aaron Donald in this one as he joins the sidelined Cooper Kupp, Allen Robinson, and Matthew Stafford on the inactive list. And that shows in the top markets where a Seattle win leads with a 73% probability. Rams +14.5 is in second with a 72.7% probability so maybe the bench puts up something of a fight. But there's only a 69.2% probability the game goes over 34.5 points so that's a low bar for a Seattle team who won't have to do much and a Rams team who can't.

• Miami @ San Francisco - Dolphins +10.5 leads the board overall at a 69.7% probability with the game scoring over 39.5 points in 2nd at a 69.4% probability. That feels like an expectation of some scoring but where that line is, it feels like it could mean this game's scoring ceiling is closer to 50 than it would be to 60 (compared to what we saw in Jacksonville-Detroit, as an example). San Francisco +0.5 (1st quarter) also makes the board in third with a 67.9% probability followed by San Francisco +0.5 (1st half) at a 65% probability. It could be close, I'm intrigued by the upside, but I wouldn't bank hugely on this one becoming a shootout.

• LA Chargers @ Las Vegas - Raiders +7.5 leads the way in this one at a 74.9% probability followed by the game scoring under 56.5 points at a 68.4% probability and the game scoring over 43.5 points at a 67.3% probability. These are the kind of lines you want to see to illustrate the market's faith on a high scoring game. With this game likely to be very popular in fantasy this week, it seems like you can target this one with impunity even if it and Jacksonville-Detroit are two of the most obvious spots of the week.

• Kansas City @ Cincinnati - This game's lines also scream shootout in the way you'd expect. The game scoring under 58.5 points leads the way at a 65.9% probability followed by over 22.5 (1st half) at a 65.3% probability. There's also Bengals +5 at a 63.4% probability in the top five, a decent sign for a competitive game and the ability for this to stay within a touchdown. The Bengals feel like they could put up a lot of points against a Chiefs defense that gives up touchdowns 71% of the time teams get into the red zone. This game could be a must-watch.

• Indianapolis @ Dallas - Sunday Night Football could be a gross one with the most probable event besides a Cowboys win is the game scoring over 35.5 points at a 74.9% probability. That's a low bar to see if you want both sides to put up points. Dallas could really waltz through this one with Colts +17.5 as one of the most probable events at a 70% probability as well. The market expects Dallas to roll and a best case scenario for Indianapolis likely means keeping it within 10 points.

• New Orleans @ Tampa Bay - This could be closer than it might seem given both teams' recent trajectories. Bucs +0.5 (1st quarter) is most probable at a 68.2% probability followed by Saints +6.5 (1st half) at a 66% probability and Saints +6 (1st half) not far behind at a 64.9% probability. The Tampa Bay win is on here as a 64% probability but there isn't much to glean from this other than the game should be close and maybe not too exciting. I'd expect a lot of Bucs field goal-worthy drives, personally.

The Most Likely crown returns abroad to a team with like NO INTERNET PRESENCE so that's why you're getting an even more amateurish graphic than usual. But those lads are (I think?) representing Sokol Pisek! Who is Sokol Pisek? Great question! They seem to be a Czehc basketball team who's playing someone called BC Lynx Liberec tomorrow! And they're gonna crush them with a Sokol Pisek win at a 96.3% probability to lead the world! If you want more live action, take Lynx Liberec +38, a bet that has a 60% chance of hitting. Gotta love the competiton in Czech hoops.The rest of the top five features two live soccer games drawing (yawn), something called a Starlites Naxxar win at a 95.6% probability (they sound like a team who'd be playing in the Guardians of the Galaxy Holiday Special), and Mississippi State winning at home versus Mississippi Valley State at a 95.6% probability. Hey! That's a game you can actually bet on here that doesn't feature teams you'll never hear of again!In the NBA, you have a Raptors win at an 80.2% probability, a Warriors win at a 78.9% probability, 1st half moneylines for both teams (73.6% probability and 71.2% probability respectively), and a Timberwolves win at 67.3% probability. Pair the three winners together for a single game parlay if you want to enjoy a high probability ride.College football is now dead to me but with some big conference title games, your leaders: A Jackson State win is at a 88.5% probability in Deion Sanders' possible finale before he moves to Colorado, a Georgia win comes in second with a 86.8% probability, a Michigan win is at a 85.5% probability and then you get 1st half moneylines for Jackson State and Georgia at 85.1% and 82.8% probabilities respectively.It seems like there's a decent UFC card tonight so you can note a Rafael Dos Anjos win leads the way with an 81.4% probability followed by a Jonathan Pearce win at a 79.9% probability, Emily Ducote & Angela Hill over 2.5 rounds at a 76.5% probability, a Matheus Nicolau win at a 75.4% probability, and a Marc Diakiese win at a 75.4% probability. Seems like some more clear cut favorites than usual.

As always, I genuinely appreciate each of you who scan through this bad boy and have cared enough about what Probly is trying to do enough to be on this list! Good things are coming even though we unfortunately are those who have to wait.Have a great weekend, may your teams do better than USC, and I'll see you guys next week! Good luck!