🤠 The Cowboys Are The BIGGEST FAVORITE OF THE YEAR

We're down to our last five weeks of the football regular season and it's a busy time for the world (especially those of us with day jobs running prominent football websites while trying to create content and manage external development efforts and fundraise for a new product amidst A WHOLE LOT of recession-based panic out there from the people with money...good times good times, definitely don't want things easy and painless).I'm writing this email up while riding on the wings of the love of the game to carry me through. So let's get right into it all in your Probly email for December 10th, 2022! - @ChrisSpags

• 🏈 Game-by-game preview of the most and least probable bets in NFL Week 14's games

• 👑 The most probable bets from the World Cup, the NBA, and whatever else seems interesting around the world!

I discussed it last week but one of the biggest surprises of this NFL season has been this sudden renaissance for the Cowboys. They throttled the Colts on Sunday Night Football after entering last week with a Cowboys win as the most probable outcome. And this week it's even more pronounced with a Cowboys win over Houston the most probable event of the year at a 91.9% probability.Even crazier than that? The Cowboys moneyline (1st half) is the second most probable event of the week at an 81.9% probability. Is it shocking they're favored heavily against a rudderless Texans team who'll be without their top two receivers in Brandin Cooks and Nico Collins? Certainly not. But this level of faith from the top markets around the world is jarring to see for a Cowboys team that has found ways to disappoint in every situation over, quite literally, the last two and a half decades.The rest of the top five includes Bills win over the Jets at a 79% probability, the Cowboys moneyline (1st quarter) at a 78.5% probability, and a Chiefs win over Broncos country (let's die inside) at a 77.2% probability.

Here's everything else in NFL Week 14:

• Cleveland @ Cincinnati - There's an unusual top of the board of this one with dominance narratives favoring Cincinnati. Normally the better team winning at the end is the most probable bet but here it's Bengals +0.5 (1st quarter) at a 69.8% probability, Bengals +0.5 (1st half) at a 68.6% probability, and a Bengals win at a 68.6% probability in third. What this might mean: The Bengals should seize early advantage — or, worst case, have Cleveland hanging around — until Deshaun Watson and his grabby hands try to steal the game much like he's stolen the innocence of innocent masseurs. With how bad he looked in his return to Houston, I don't have much faith in Cleveland winning this one. But the way these lines set up is a rarity after writing up the market data in every game for months now.

• NY Jets @ Buffalo - The Bills win leads the way with a 79% probability but it's an interesting high bar alternate spread in second with under 51.5 points at a 73.1% probability. These are two very defensively minded teams but that line popping up in the top 5 means there could be more scoring expected than most would anticipate. The Bills should retain control though with a Bills moneyline (1st half) at a 72.3% probability and Bills moneyline (1st quarter) right behind it at a 70.2% probability. It seems like Mike White and the Jets will fight but, frankly, there's a massive talent disparity.

• Houston @ Dallas - We covered this one up top and it's a full Cowboys dominance narrative with Cowboys moneyline for the game, 1st half, and 1st quarter in order at the top 3 with a 91.9% probability, 81.9% probability, and 78.5% probability respectively. The most likely outcome besides that? Texans under 0.5 points (1st quarter) at a 67% probability. This could be a very sad effort by a Texans team who would have gotten starched even at "full strength".

• Baltimore @ Pittsburgh - With no Lamar Jackson, the expectation seems to be a competitive game with Pittsburgh as a somewhat baffling favorite. Ravens +7.5 is the most probable outcome at a 71.2% probability followed by the game going over 30.5 points at a 68.3% probability. It's followed closely by the 67% probability that the game scores under 43.5 points. With how stellar Ravens backup Tyler Huntley was last year, I am intrigued by the idea of targeting his upside in an offense that's underperformed A LOT with Lamar this year. But everything these top markets has indicates an ugly, vintage AFC North slog.

• Jacksonville @ Tennessee - The primary markets for this one indicate an ugly one and our Probly data looks similarly unappealing. It's led by Jaguars +10.5 at a 70.9% probability. Titans +0.5 (1st quarter) is in second at a 67.9% probability and the game scoring over 35.5 points is in third at a 67% probability. There seems to be a chance of a blowout favoring Tennessee but, more so, this seems like the markets expect a game where the Jags just don't show up offensively.

• Minnesota @ Detroit - An unlikely candidate for Game of the Week but it does seem like the top markets support a competitive one. Lions +7.5 is the most probable outcome at a 74.7% probability, which means that even if things go hideously for them as two-point favorites, they should be in the hunt to tie by the end. Lions +3.5 (1st half) is the #2 most probable outcome at a 67.5% probability. There's a 65.9% probability the game scores over 45.5 points, which could be a little higher based on how everyone anticipates a shootout. This game looks very appealing for fantasy football but these markets feel like this could be more like a fellow NFC North underperformer you may recall — when Aaron Rodgers and the Packers did nothing against the Lions a few weeks ago despite a stellar spot on paper.

• Philadelphia @ NY Giants - Philadelphia +3.5 is the most probable outcome at an 81.2% probability followed by an Eagles win at a 73.2% probability. That seems to indicate there could be some volatility expected to Philly's performance. The Giants are going the wrong direction after winning in spite of themselves to start the year. But it's interesting to note the high bar in alternate spreads with a 70% probability the game scores under 51.5 points. I have no idea how the Giants score points with how impotent they've looked over the last month but this seems to have potential for a shootout despite the obvious talent gap favoring the Eagles.

• Kansas City @ Denver - It's Kansas City dominance narrative in this one with a Chiefs win at a 77.2% probability, Chiefs moneyline (1st half) at a 71.4% probability, and Chiefs moneyline (1st quarter) at a 66.4% probability. Fourth on the most probable list is Chiefs -2.5 (1st half) at a 65.2% probability. The Broncos defense has not stopped fighting despite their absolutely disgraceful season by Russ and the gang so they may be able to muck it up. But the Chiefs should walk away with a win.

• Carolina @ Seattle - You may gather from these writeups that it all seems like an ugly week for fantasy football. You want to get really ugly? How about targeting this game as the shootout of the week? Seahawks +3.5 is the most probable event at a 75.2% probability, which you know from these emails means that this is likely to go down to the wire. You also have a high bar for alternate spreads with the game under 50.5 points in second at a 66.7% probability. There's also Seahawks +0.5 (1st half) at a 65.3% probability. The Seahawks should be in control but Sam Darnold was SHOCKINGLY good in his return to a starting role. If he maintains that this week, it could be a surprisingly fun one in the home of the 12th man.

• Tampa Bay @ San Francisco - Tampa Bay +10.5 leads the board overall at a 72.6% probability with the game scoring over 30 points in second at a 69.6% probability. These are the exact same markets we saw lead the way last week for Miami-San Francisco. There's also a 68.3% probability for Niners +0.5 (1st quarter). Tampa Bay DOES NOT have the firepower or schematic advantages Miami has, which kept them alive despire San Francisco controlling a lot of last week's game. I fully expect an embarrassing effort from Tom Brady and one that looks closer than it really was thanks to him actually playing aggressively late in the game. Same as it was on Monday Night without, you know, playing the very bad Saints.

• Miami @ LA Chargers - The most fun game of the week could be on Sunday Night Football. Dolphins +3.5 is the second most probable outcome at a 71% probability followed by Dolphins +3 (1st half) at a 68.1% probability. But the most probable outcome? A 73.4% probability the game scores over 44.5 points. As we know, that poses some risk for the 26.6% of the time it goes under. But there's another compelling alternate line with a 63.4% probability the game goes under 58.5 points. That is a VERY high bar in the alternate markets and one that is the most logical to target, especially if you have Dolphins or Chargers players in your season-long leagues and need to split hairs on whom to play to make the playoffs.

• New England @ Arizona - I anticipate a poor effort from Kliff and Kyler in this one but it does seem like they're most likely to hang in it. Cardinals +7.5 is the most probable event at a 71.4% probability and it's followed by a 70.1% probability the game scores under 50.5 points. There's also a Patriots +3.5 in the most probable events at a 63.4% probability. That typically means the worst case scenario would be them blowing it by a field goal and the more likely scenario is the Cardinals storming back late but falling short. There could be some more scoring in this one — great news if you're relying on Rhamondre Stevenson in any format — but the Pats should take care of an inferior team here.

The Most Likely outcome returns to college hoops (and really basketball overall, which you'll see in a moment). The University of Texas (UT to its friends) owns the most probable event across all sports with a 97.1% probability of a Texas moneyline (1st half) versus Arkansas Pine Bluff. What does it say for these young men that the markets think they lead but have less confidence they win? Shame, that's what it says.The rest of the top five features a Connecticut win at a 96.4% probability (this game is likely starting by the time you read this), an ACS Sepsi Sic win at a 96.3% probability, that Texas moneyline for the game at a 96.3% probability, and our old friends PF Schio winning at a 96% probability.In the World Cup, you have Croatia and Argentina over 1 goal at an 83.6% probability when they meet on Tuesday, France +1 in Asian handicaps at an 83.2% probability, Croatia +1.75 at a 79.4% probability (basically means you only lose half your money if they lose by two goals) and Argentina +0.25 (1st half) at a 79.3% probability (which means you'd win half of your bet if they're tied at half).In the NBA, the most probable outcomes are a Heat win at an 85.3% probability, a Heat moneyline (1st half) at a 77.1% probability, a Nuggets win at a 73.7% probability, a Nuggets moneyline (1st half) at a 68.8% probability and the Heat's moneyline (1st quarter) at a 68.4% probability.The UFC has at least a few noteworthy names on its card tonight so here's how those markets look: A 74.7% probability for Magomed Ankalaev to win leads the way followed by a Cameron Saaiman win at a 72.6% probability, an Edmen Shahbazyan win at a 72% probability, and a Paddy Pimblett win at a 68.5% probability. Hooray for fisticuffs (I don't think we'll have odds for Dana White's new slapfighting venture...yet).

Thanks to all of you as always who make it to this part of the email. One day Probly will be more than lovingly curated text but it really does bring me joy to see how many of you are reading this weekly. I hope it helps, for the NFL especially!Have a great weekend and I'll see you guys next week! Good luck!