🏈 Conference Championships Are Here...What Are The Best Bets???

We’re back on the grind this week after solo dad duty during a Snow Day last week (while the wife got to gal-avant around Miami on a girls’ trip eating incredible meals and going to a South Beach club that is also a strip club, sick league) made it impossible to get my usual Probly content out. The great irony of that? I’ll tell you about it in this week’s Probly updates.

We’ve had a killer week of bets, including 4-1 and 5-0 days on our Top 5 bets videos that I post daily on TikTok and Twitter:

@problyapp

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Follow on there or, even better, finally take the leap to get Probly’s data for yourself. Use promo code FIRST for 50% off at Probly.com/subscribe. That means you can get one month of pre-game data for $9.99/month or live in-game data for $24.99/month, and it gets EVEN CHEAPER if you buy a year. Using Probly will help you win more, learn about what makes for winning bets (spoiler alert: around a 50% probability at plus-money odds is ALWAYS a bet you should take), and have some more confidence than guessing.

We’ve got Conference Championships in the NFL so we’ll look at the Most Probable markets as well as some bonus things to touch on. Let’s get into it all with your Probly Email for January 26th, 2024! - @ChrisSpags

• 🔮 Predicting the future with the Most Probable events and +EV bets of of the NFC and AFC Conference Championships

• 🔓 Probly Updates: Snowed Out

With only two games, the options are limited for our Most Likely winner…but we still have one!

As sad as it may be for the people of Detroit, a Niners win leads everything this weekend with a 75% probability. This is a potential disaster on paper with the Lions’ pass D being strafed by much lesser teams this year — including Baker Mayfield last week — but I hope the Lions at least make it fun.

Now let’s get into the game-by-game breakdown (all two of them!) of Most Probable events along with any additional +EV bets we see along the way. You can also look at all this info for yourself at Probly.com/search, just filter by NFL and you’ll see each game and its currently available markets!

• Kansas City (+4) at Baltimore (44.5 O/U) — Top five most probable: Ravens win at a 66% probability, Ravens moneyline (1st half) at a 64% probability, Odell Beckham Jr over 1.5 rec at a 61% probability, Ravens moneyline (1st quarter) at a 60% probability, and Under 46.5 at a 58% probability.
  
  What this means: A dominance narrative in the AFC title game and it’s not the defending Super Bowl champion. Tough scene. We see a high bar over/under on the Under 46.5 line so maybe there’s some more production put up on both sides. But the market expectation is sheer dominance for Baltimore despite KC looking a bit more like vintage Chiefs last week. I’ll also point out the Odell line is interesting: He’s the only passable Ravens receiver against man defense, something the Chiefs play at a higher rate than any of the other conference championship teams.

• Detroit (+7.5) at San Francisco (51.5 O/U) — Top five most probable: Kyle Juszczyk under 0.5 TDs at an 88% probability, Niners win at a 75% probability, Niners moneyline (1st half) at a 69% probability, David Montgomery under 1.5 rec at a 60% probability, Niners -5.5 at a 59% probability, and Over 49 at a 59% probability.
  
  What this means: We get a hedge on the market’s Niners -7.5 line, which could be a good sign for the Lions keeping this within range at the end. We also get a low-bar over/under with Over 49 — though, obviously, most fantasy players would sitll be happy if the game had 49 points — and that could mean the game playing under a shootout. What could help achieve that outcome? Maybe the Niners storming downfield frequently but having to settle for Jake Moody field goals. Maybe the Lions holding them to a bad game that nobody saw coming. But it is an interesting angle relative to large-field DFS this weekend since everyone assumes San Francisco rolls here — including the top betting markets around the world.

I’m doing the best bets video for NFL tomorrow so here are a few that currently look +EV:

• Brock Purdy over 269.6 passing yards with a 55% probability and 2.6 PROBLY Score at -115 odds

• Gus Edwards under 0.5 receptions at a 41% probability and 5.3 PROBLY Score at +160 odds

• Nelson Agholor under 16.5 receiving yards with a 54% probability and a 2.3 PROBLY Score at -113 odds

• Mark Andrews under 35.5 receiving yards with a 52% probability and a 2.7 PROBLY Score at -103 odds

• Jahmyr Gibbs over 3.5 receptions at a 47% probability and a 2.1 PROBLY Score at +115 odds

With the NFL winding down, get used to seeing that format for some data from other sports in here! Here’s today’s top 10 bets in the NBA (aka a longer form version of the video I linked up top, made for a sophisticated YouTube palette as opposed to an ADHD TikTok one):

1️⃣ Scroll through all of our available markets
2️⃣ Click the Probability number (or swipe right) to see what the markets are saying is the “true probability” of a bet to win as well as what the current best available odds are. If you’re a paid member, simply sort by Most Profitable to filter out all PROBLY Scores under zero.
3️⃣ If you can find odds aligned with the best odds out there and it has a positive PROBLY Score (especially over a 2.0), take the bet! Taking +EV bets will win you more money than it loses you! If not, you can still take the bet but be careful because negative PROBLY Score bets over time can fully deplete your bankroll.

A lot of updates and takeaways here, including my disappointment and not being able to get content done last Friday.

Like many parents, normally we have the buffer of daycare from 830am-5pm daily to help both my wife and I get our work done (on Thursdays my mother-in-law comes, same thing). But because of a snow storm wreaking havoc on the East Coast, my wife had to fly to Miami earlier to avoid getting stuck, resulting in me being on duty caring for our almost-two-year-old from 6:45am until 7:30pm. I was able to get my weekly DraftKings preview stream done on my Splash Play fantasy football channel at night but getting to Probly content wasn’t going to be possible.

The great irony I mentioned earlier? Last Friday, as I’m literally buried in snow and childcare, we had our biggest traffic day yet, a 400% increase on our previous high.

Obviously, you’ve got to take the wins where you can get them. But there’s something cognitively dissonant about “Here’s a day I cannot get anything done besides watching Bluey and spending way too much at the grocery store out of fear we’ll be trapped all weekend” while your app has its best traffic day yet.

Maybe my absence from my usual run of content made our regulars check the site out to fill that lack of data? I have no idea, but let’s spin it that way to make me feel good about myself.

Besides that, we remain in an App Store approval holding pattern as we make what we PRAY are our final tweaks to our In-App Purchase page to get approval. I’ve likely talked about it enough at this point but it is confounding how the approval process goes where you, in some situations, have to Google endlessly to decipher what the fix they’re actually asking for is. But we think we have it sussed out and are hopeful we will be good to go for downloads before February.

If you have a Probly+ account currently, you’ll also be able to use the Apple version and have all your premium features (though the inverse will not be true; App Store users will have to use App Store versions, as of now). We encourage people to use our usual signup at Probly.com/subscribe because that will save us App Store charges as well as give you more flexibility of use.

That said — it’ll be very exciting to get live on the App Store since we really hope that will ease discovery for paying customers. It’s now been like a month and a half trying to get this going and it is a major blocker for us starting to pivot parts of the product that we’re excited to tackle soon.

Other updates: I did record my episode of the Betting Startups Podcast and think I acquitted myself well (though a video version may have been better to really flex how much of a pro content creator I am). Either way, I’m excited for that to hit. A lot of what we’re doing right now is an attempt to get ducks in a row to maximize any opportunity on that, including another round of investor outreach based upon our latest traction to report.

We have plans for improvements to our Most Profitable filtering, cleaning up some lesser used parts of the app, Pick’Em site optimizers, and an ambitious overhaul to our initial Probly.com load screen on the menu as soon as we get App Store approval. So let’s hope we can get this all moving in parallel.

If you guys encounter any issues not covered here or want to provide feedback, you can email me [email protected].

That pretty much covers everything for this week. I apologize again for missing the email and NFL bets video last Friday; the pulls of parenting and obsessive effort on your projects is something that candidly is a struggle for me to balance. But rest assured — Luka did have to watch football games last weekend, much to his dismay when he’d rather watch dancing avocados on YouTube (don’t ask).

As always, thanks to all of you who read all the way down here. Use promo code FIRST to get 50% off at Probly.com/subscribe to actually start winning money on your bets with some reliability. I’ll be back tomorrow on the Probly YouTube for one more update of NFL Conference Championship best bets but otherwise…good luck!