🏹 Chiefs WILL ROLL In Week 9

It's another Saturday morning. It's like Coachella in our backyard for leaves I don't want to clean up. That means it's time for another Probly Email!It's a big week for Probly as we reach the halfway point in our user experience design process. And it's even bigger since I was fortunate enough to pick up a $20K win on DraftKings that will help us pay for our work there as well as possibly extend our dev team to try to get this product out to the public in line with our Q1 2023 goal. The same principles that will help us make Probly a very special product are the same ones that have helped me make some real strides in my daily fantasy play lately so it's genuinely exciting to be able to feel like I'm getting results on both sides.Today you'll see some of our first screenshots of our evolving product as well as all our usual run through the world of top performing sportsbook markets across the world and the pictures they paint across the sports landscape. Strap in for your Probly email for November 5th, 2022. - @ChrisSpags

• 📸 Early Probly UX screenshots

• 🏈 Game-by-game preview of the most and least probable bets in NFL Week 9's games

• 👑 The most probable bets from college football, the NBA, the World Series, and around the world!

As I've mentioned in previous emails, we recently contracted a Latin American UX (user experience) design firm, BTI Labs, to help us flesh out a prototype that will help us do at least one of A) Get a beta out to you guys that does exactly what we hope or B) Help us close a round of funding to begin to make some hires and get our Probly product out the door.Each week or day we get a little bit closer to a front-facing product that will be the simple, beautiful experience I want to pair with our already developed live back-end data that we have all the confidence in the world in. Here's where that process is right now with our first screenshots from Probly's MVP prototype:

There are tweaks (and connections to our live data sources) that will come from here. In particular, I love the filtering on top of the right screen that allows you to select bets by sport and league and allows you to sort everything based on probability or profitability...I imagine I'll want that as part of our core swipable experience. There will also be some language tweaks specific to particular bets (alternate spreads, props, Asian handicaps in soccer, etc) but you can hopefully get the gist of what we're pushing towards. We give you THE true probability, explain the bet you're taking, and allow you to play around in perpetuity on-app or transact real LIVE sportsbook opportunities.This will be a product you can swipe through on the toilet and get something out of it, either pass time for free voting "Probly Yes" or "Probly No" on bets from around the world (as you compete against everyone else on Probly) or transact into real life bets at legal sportsbooks. You'll note things like a user profile pic, comments, and more on the home screen's right rail; that's all part of what I believe will make us most unique in this space. You'll be able to converse and engage around bets and games. At some point, you'll be able to cut your own videos to tell people what you think about a bet and it'll appear in this stream.We are building what I hope is the perfect mousetrap of usability with layers on top of that which can help us build community and add material value to the content creator ecosystem that I personally hold nearly and dearly. And we'll have the most powerful and mathematically profitable Expected Value tool in the industry in the form of our proprietary PROBLY Score, a Kelley Blue Book or Zillow Zestimate for every bet that you can take on an actual sportsbook. Free users will get a ton out of this, paid users even more, all at price points that are way less of an overreach than a lot of current products.I am stoked at how it's shaping up and how we will sharpen the knife over the next few weeks. You'll get to play with it all soon, I promise. But rest assured: This is not a Ponzi scheme (which feels like something you only say when you are, in fact, a Ponzi scheme).

Last week we talked about how most probable winners like Jalen Hurts and Josh Allen were NOT Tom Brady, who failed as a massive favorite for two straight weeks. Another guy to add to the "NOT Tom Brady" pile: Patrick Mahomes.The Chiefs currently lead the way as the most probable winner in their Sunday Night Football game at home versus the Titans with an 82.2% probability. Josh Allen and the Bills aren't far behind with an 81.7% likelihood to win at the Jets. Chiefs and Bills 1st half moneylines aren't far behind at a 75.9% and 74.3% probability respectively while a Bengals win versus Carolina rounds out the Week 9 top five with a 74% probability.These are the QBs you rely on in 2022, not Skeletor Tom Brady out on the prowl coming off a divorce. A painful lesson to learn for some out there but I have a lot more confidence in the Chiefs and Bills in the world than I do a team with its best days behind it.

Here's everything else in NFL Week 9:

• Buffalo @ NY Jets - A dominance narrative is afoot in our first game with that 81.7% probability the Bills win, a 74.3% probability they lead after the 1st half, and a 67.4% probability they lead after the 1st quarter. Maybe the Bills start slowly out of the gate against a Jets D that allows a low -.046 EPA per play, as evidenced by a not insignificant 33.6% chance the Jets are tied or winning in the 1st quarter. But the Bills should win comfortably by the end.

• Green Bay @ Detroit - Packers +1.5 (1st half) leads the way with a 65.3% probability with Packers +0.5 (1st quarter) in the second most probable spot with a 64.9% probability. The game feels priced to be shockingly competitive, particularly after the Lions' TJ Hockenson trade and likelihood of no D'Andre Swift, with a Packers win only at a 63.5% probability. Green Bay's offense looks interesting in fantasy and a competitive game could mean they hit their upside — or completely crap the bed and allow Detroit to steal a win. Both approaches have validity.

• Las Vegas @ Jacksonville - The game scoring over 40.5 points leads the way with a 70.7% probability, though sometimes (for fantasy football purposes) that can be a reflection on the inverse outcome with a noteworthy 29.3% probability that the game scores less than 40.5 points. Similarly, there's a 66.3% probability the game scores under 53.5 points in the alternate spread markets. You can interpret some major volatility in this game's potential outcomes from these being atop the game's most probable markets. There seems like a faint chance the Raiders explode in this spot after getting blanked last week but it's hard to have a ton of confidence in anything.

• Carolina @ Cincinnati - Under 49.5 points leads the way with a 68.5% probability (besides the aforementioned Bengals moneyline at a 74% probability). With XFL legend PJ Walker at the helm, there's a good chance Carolina keeps the game within range with a 70% probability of Carolina +14.5. These Panthers have been feisty since getting rid of roughly half the team and coaching staff. They likely do not have the horses to pull off a win but they should hang closer than it seems.

• LA Chargers @ Atlanta - Atlanta +4.5 (1st half) leads the way here at a 63.2% probability and the other markets all indicate a competitive game. There's a 61% probability the game is over 22.5 points in the first half so it's likely there's some scoring pop to a competitive matchup with a lot of injured Chargers players and a Falcons team that plays above their heads typically.

• Indianapolis @ New England - Indianapolis +14.5 is the game's most likely outcome at a 75.1% probability. There's also a 71% probability the game goes over 32.5 points, which does reflect the worrisome downside of the game's scoring. This feels like an ugly Belichick game throttling Sam Ehlinger given the Colts' major losses in offensive talent lately, including no Jonathan Taylor in this game.

• Miami @ Chicago - Dolphins +3.5 is the game's most probable event at a 74.7% probability followed by game scoring over 38.5 points, a 71.9% probability. Chicago +10.5 comes in third with a 68.3% probability, all of this seemingly portends a game that features Chicago mostly hanging in but giving up a lot of offensive production. Chicago traded away a lot of talent on a defense that was already bad and Miami passes above expectation more than anyone in the league. Fantasy-wise, it could be wise to target fireworks.

• Minnesota @ Washington - The game scoring over 37.5 points leads the way at a 66.9% probability, followed by Washington +7.5 at a 66.5% probability. This is a game where I worry somewhat about the flip side of the equation, that 33.1% probability the game goes under 37.5 points. But it seems like the more profitable approach on DraftKings, Underdog, and the like could be to hope this game ends up one of the sneakiest shootouts of the season.

• Seattle @ Arizona - This game was a massive fantasy disappointment the first time around but it seemss likely to be competitive once again. Seahawks +7.5 leads the way with a 69.6% probability, followed by the game scoring over 43.5 points at a 66.4% probability. You also have Seattle +4.5 (1st half) at a 66.1% probability in third for the game. I have some DFS interest in this game but right now it looks fairly popular, meaning their could be value in playing the lower likelihood of a slog game.

• LA Rams @ Tampa Bay - Two teams who have aged before our eyes like Benjamin Button compete in the afternoon main event slot and there's a 70.5% probability the game scores over 35.5 points. There's also a 68.8% probability on Bucs +3.5 and a 68.1% probability the game scores under 49.5 points. I'm rooting for there to be some scoring here, particularly with the Rams' weakness against deep balls (a 0.85 EPA allowed on passess over 20 yards) aligning well with Mike Evans' desire to go for home runs.

• Tennessee @ Kansas City - Dominance narrative is strongly in effect here with a Chiefs win, Chiefs moneyline (1st half) and Chiefs moneyline (1st quarter) as the top markets at 82.2%, 75.9%, and 73.3% probability respectively. There's also a 70.5% probability the game scores over 39.5 points. Tennessee gets destroyed on deep balls, a league worse 1.9 EPA on passes over 20 yards, so I expect early and effortless domination on Sunday Night Football.

• Baltimore @ New Orleans - The game scoring under 55.5 points leads the way at a 72.8% probability but that's a pretty high bar, especially considering the 27.2% chance the game goes over that mark. Ravens +3.5 is also on top of the board at a 68.1% probability. A competitive, high scoring game is just what we needed on Monday Night Football.

Once again, the most probable event in the world returns to college football. Oregon leads the way across all markets with a 96.9% probabilty to win at 1-7 Colorado. Some other teams you haven't heard of aren't far behind; BC Prometey looks likely to to win versus BK Liepaja in the Latvian Basketball League at a 95.7% probability, followed by PF Schio to win at a 95.4% probability in Lega Basket Femminile (you go girls!), and the illustrious Chilean basketball club CD Universidad De Concepcion to win at a 95.2% probability.

In other College Football games that haven't kicked off, a Michigan win is #2 behind Oregon at a 94.2% probability, a Fresno State win comes in third at a 93.6% probability, San Jose State is fourth at a 92% probability to win, and North Texas closes it out with a 90.9% probability to win.

The World Series is in the air tonight in my location of captivity, Philadelphia. But once again, baseball being baseball, the most probable bets are bleh. There's an 81.2% probability tonight's game between the Phillies and Astros scores over 3.5 runs but a 79.6% probability it scores under 10.5 runs. Phillies +3 is the third most probable market, a 78.5% probability followed by Phillies +0.5 (1st inning) at a 75.5% probability. This all seems to read like a Phillies win tonight where they strike early and strive to hold off Houston to force a game 7.

Our beloved NBA lacks the high probabilities of those random international leagues mentioned above but a Suns win versus a Lillard-less Portland leads the way with an 82% probability, a Nuggets win is #2 with a very close 81.8% probability, and a Timberwolves win is at third with a 75.3% probability. The Nuggets and Suns also look likeky to lead early and often with a 74% probability and 73.8% probability respectively that they lead after the 1st half.

Another one in the books gang. Hope you enjoyed this walk through the world of probabilities and Probly! As always, please do tell a friend or several thousand if you enjoyed this email and I'll catch you guys next week. Good luck!