🥂Chiefs On Top Once More To Close Out 2022

We are BACK on the probability grind after it was impossible to get this email out last week with timely data due to the holidays and the Saturday NFL slate. But I had to get one more in before it's 2023 and we are officially in the last baton pass of our Probly product development efforts.Week 17 is the biggest one in football for fantasy football players — myself included with the faintest shots in the world of winning Underdog's Best Ball Mania 3 for $2 mil and DraftKings's Best Ball Millionaire Maker for $1 mil. Whether you're in the mix for those things or in your home league title game, these probabilities combed from top markets around the world can be informative to make decisions. So let's get into NFL Week 17 and whatever else looks interesting today in the world of sports. Happy New Year to you all! This is your Probly email for December 31st, 2022! - @ChrisSpags

• 🏈 Game-by-game preview of the most and least probable bets in NFL Week 17's games

• 👑 The most probable bets from college football bowls, the NBA, and whatever else seems interesting around the world!

I take a week off and the carousel spins right back to the Chiefs as the most probable team of NFL Week 17. Not only is a Chiefs win over Denver number one for the week at an 84.4% probability, they also have 1st half moneylines and 1st quarter moneylines right there among the top 5 most probable events.Behind that Chiefs win is a 49ers win over the Jarrett Stidham-led Raiders at a 78.5% probability, a Chiefs moneyline (1st half) at a 76.8% probability, the 49ers' moneyline (1st half) at a 74.7% probability, and a Chiefs moneyline (1st quarter) at a 72.7% probability. Clearly the top markets have centered around these two games as the certainty of the week with two title contenders playing two absolute also-rans.It's also a reflection on the parity you can expect around the rest of the league. There are questionable motivations, injuries hanging over a litany of teams in contention and out, teams who should start tanking this week. It could be a wild one so let's get into each game in NFL Week 17:

• Jacksonville @ Houston - I'm honestly shocked the Jaguars moneyline isn't among the top five bets, which could be a reflection on them not going full-effort with their Week 18 versus the Titans a "win and you're in" game. Texans +6 (1st half) is the most probable bet at a 66.8% probability followed by Jags +0.5 (1st quarter) at a 64.3% probability. Jags +1 for the game is at a 62.7% probability which means that either the Jags call off the dogs or allow the Texans to have one of their inexplicable best games of the year. Some red flags here for a Jags team who's run very hot.

• Indianapolis @ NY Giants - This game looks like an absolute waste of time with Colts +14.5 top of the board with a 78.1% probability. Giants +3.5 is #2 at a 77.3% probability, which is always an indication of how likely an absolute fluke Colts win would be in a worst case scenario. There's also an alarming 70% probability for the game going over 31.5 points (which you, as a savvy Probly email reader, know means there's a substantial 30% chance it scores less than 31.5 points). I'd expect the Giants D to do the legwork against Nick Foles, a player who will not be able to handle their 40% blitz rate, and the Giants to do the bare minimum offensively for a win.

• Chicago @ Detroit - This is one of the most crucial games of the week in fantasy with the highest Vegas total and it's a Lions dominance narrative: a Lions win leads the way at a nice 69% probability followed by Lions moneyline (1st half) at a 66% probability and Lions moneyline (1st quarter) at a 63.3% probability. There's also an over 22.5 points (1st half) at a 62.7% probability. These are two abhorrent defenses but it does feel like this data could mean more of a Lions win and more general incompetence than is expected from the offenses.

• New Orleans @ Philadelphia - Eagles +3.5 leads the way with a 77.8% probability, again one of those worst case scenarios for them blowing this game by a field goal. But there's an interesting high bar for the team totals with under 50.5 points for the game clocking in at a 73.4% probability. An Eagles win follows those with a 68.3% probability so perhaps there could be a bit of a come back to Earth here after Gardner Minshew had a lot more good than bad versus the Cowboys.

• Denver @ Kansas City - All the top bets here were covered above; it does seem like there's no real hope for a dead cat bounce for the Broncos after firing Nathaniel Hackett. If the Chiefs don't boat race them and call it a game early, this would be a shocker.

• Cleveland @ Washington - It's a top five dominated by competitive alternate spreads which seems about right with what to expect from this game. Commanders +3 (1st half) leads the way at a 66.4% probability followed by Commanders +0.5 (1st quarter) at a 64.1% probability and Browns +5 for the game at a 63.5% probability. These are two teams who probably should just run the ball at each other all game and you can sprinkle in a backbreaking Carson Wentz pick or two for some spice to keep it close.

• Carolina @ Tampa Bay - With how bad Tampa Bay has looked, I've felt like this could be an upset spot for Carolina over the woebegotten Tom Brady. There isn't a whole lot in the top markets to go against that — or to support it. Bucs +0.5 (1st quarter) is the most probable event at a 68.9% probability followed by Panthers +6 (1st half) at a 65.7% probability. There's also Bucs +0.5 (1st half) at a 64.4% probability and then the Bucs win at a 64.2% probability. This reads like a game where Tampa Bay should be able to seize control only for them to not do so and ultimately let Carolina back in before they likely seize a win. So...basically every Bucs win this season.

• Arizona @ Atlanta - The move to mediocre journeyman QB David Blough for the Cardinals has made this even uglier than you'd expect. The most probable event is the game scoring over 33.5 points at a 71.4% probability followed by Falcons +0.5 (1st quarter) at a 70.7% probability and Falcons +1.5 (1st half) at a 70.1% probability. There's also a decently high chance of a Falcons win now at a 70.1% probability as well. It's hard to expect a boat race given these markets but it does seem hard to expect a Falcons team who's looked improved with the change at QB to lose here.

• Miami @ New England - This is a crucial game for the playoffs but without Tua starting for Miami, it seems like a game where the Dolphins hang in but don't have the horses to win. Dolphins +7.5 leads the way at a 70.2% probability followed by Patriots +3 (1st half) at a 67.7% probability. I'd also have some concern for the Dolphins offense with a 65.6% probability the Dolphins score under 10.5 points in the first half. Maybe they find their footing late but this seems like a game of defensive-minded Patriots ball where there could be disappointing results for the Dolphins' skill position guys in fantasy and in general.

• San Francisco @ Las Vegas - We discussed the three Niners moneylines in the intro being among the most probable events of the week. Besides that in the top 5? You'll get Raiders under 19.5 points at a 66.6% probability. This all screams a Niners boat race. Starting Jarrett Stidham against the league's top defense according to EPA is a baffling move.

• NY Jets @ Seattle - The game scoring under 49.5 points leads the way at a 68.2% probability, but that is a high bar for an alternate total. We also have Seahawks +5 at a 64.7% probability and Seahawks +3.5 (1st half) at a 64% probability in the top 5. These are two solid defenses but it does seem like there's a faint chance of a competitive shootout here with competent Mike White and needle-threading Geno Smith perhaps running hot.

• Minnesota @ Green Bay - The game scoring over 37.5 points leads the way with a 75.1% probability followed by Vikings +10.5 at a 72.1% probability. The markets have baffled me all week with them reflecting not just a Green Bay win, but seemingly a defensively minded one where the Vikings don't get going. Part of me wonders if an Eagles win in the early window makes Minnesota not play starters to their full capacity since they'd be unable to win the bye and mostly locked into their playoff spot if that happens. These are weird lines though for two teams that have gone in opposite directions all year with everything favoring a Packers dominant win.

• LA Rams @ LA Chargers - The Rams had a Christmas miracle as they put up 50 points against Denver last week. Against the Chargers it seems like they'll be lucky to not get smoked. We have the Chargers +3.5 bad luck hedge at a 78.6% probability and then Rams +14.5 at a 74.8% probability. We also have a low bar for the score at over 34.5 points at a 72.4% probability and a Chargers win at a 70.7% probability. It all screams the Rams coming back to Earth against a Chargers D that is jelling lately and gets Joey Bosa back on limited snaps this week.

• Pittsburgh @ Baltimore - This game was flexed to Sunday Night Football due to the Steelers' low chances to make the playoffs and it seems like they'd be lucky to keep their faint hopes alive. Steelers +10.5 is the most probable event at a 77.2% probability followed by a 71.9% probability the game scores under 43.5 points. Similarly, in third is the game scoring over 29.5 points at a 67.7% probability. This screams "vintage AFC North slog" and it's hard to see otherwise. For DraftKings Showdown tournaments though, it could be interesting to target the Steelers pass game if they potentially play from behind against a Ravens D that is now league-worst at defending deep passes with .98 Estimated Points Added per dropback.

• Buffalo @ Cincinnati - The most crucial game for my million dollar dreams does seem like it could have some fireworks on Monday Night Football. The game scoring under 56.5 points has a 69.8% probability. Then we have Bills +3.5 at a 64.1% probability and Bengals +3.5 (1st half) at a 63% probability. This seemingly could indicate some early struggles for Cincinnati and then ultimately a wild ending where either team can eke it out. But a competitive game with some possible good passing game scripts for Joe Burrow is all I can ask for this holiday season so strap in for what will hopefully be a fun Week 17 capper.

I have to vocalize a complaint: There REALLY are not a lot of images out there floating around for some of these esoteric international teams. Like I don't expect USA Today Images or the AP to have photographers for Italy Lega AI Women but this is the BEST photo I could find for PF Schio, who are the most probable winner of the week over ASD San Martino di Lupari with a 95.1% probability. Can we get these proud warriors and Most Likely award winners some studio shots?The rest of the top five: Birtus Pallacanestro Bologna to win at a 94.5% probability, a UAB win in good ol' fashioned American college hoops at a 93.3% probability, a Gonzaga win at a 93.3% probability, and a Kentucky win at a 93% probability.In some college football bowl games coming up, the most probable outcome is an LSU win in the Citrus Bowl at an 83% probability followed by the LSU moneyline (1st half) at a 77.5% probability, a Michigan win in the CFP at a 74.7% probability, a Bama win in the Sugar Bowl at a 72.8% probability, and LSU moneyline (1st quarter) at a 71.2% probability. Based on these numbers, it seems like maybe some of these bowl games will be less competitive than you'd like to see when gearing up for New Years (or subsequently coming down from a hangover).In the NBA today, you get a Mavericks win at a 70% probability, a Nets win at a 69.7% probability, a Timberwolves win at a 67.9% probability, a Grizzlies win at a 67.8% probability as well as a Grizzlies moneyline (1st half) at a 65% probability. A fun little parlay to carry you into 2023 that isn't totally juiced to the gils? I don't hate it!

Thanks as always to you heroes who make it to the end of this email. This calendar turning to 2023 means we are now officially entering the year where it all goes down for Probly and I am VERY EXCITED to finally have our vision in your hands. It's been a haul of a year but I have never felt more "one" with the sports betting markets — not quite to Neo in The Matrix levels, but dare to dream — and I'm genuinely enthused to be able to change the game for anyone who gives our product a shot. A lot of people are working A LOT of hours over the holidays (and spending a lot of my money 😅) to help us get this right and out before the Super Bowl so I really hope we can reward your faith with something cool soon.I wish you guys a happy, healthy, and safe New Years and I'll see you guys in 2023! Good luck!