🏆Championship Week Is Anyone's Game

The days get longer but the football games get less by the week, such is the duality of this time of year. We're into the Championship Round for the NFL with two games on Sunday and we're hopefully less than two weeks away from getting our first beta out to you guys. So naturally it's equally high pressure for the superstar athletes competing in front of tens of millions as it is for our stealthy startup.The probabilities told us the tale of what to expect last week with stunning accuracy (even somehow pinning Anthony Edwards going off in the NBA). Will that be the case again today? Let's find out! This is your Probly email for January 28th, 2023! - @ChrisSpags

• 🏈 Game-by-game preview of the most and least probable bets in the AFC and NFC Championship games

• 👑 The most probable bets from the NBA, UFC, and whatever else seems interesting!

Last week, I opened this email talking about how there was a clear gap between the Saturday and Sunday games. The Chiefs and Eagles looked like near impossibilities to lose their games on Saturday while the Niners and Bills were much more likely as favorites to potentially blow theirs on Sunday.This week is a lot more like last Sunday. No team winning makes the top five overall probabilities and all of those "this favorite may blow the game" lines are strongly in play.Our top five most probable events according to the winningest markets around the world: Chiefs +7.5 at a 75.6% probability, Niners and Eagles over 38.5 points at a 74.1% probability, Eagles +3.5 at a 69.1% probability, Eagles +3 (1st half) at a 68.6% probability, and Bengals and Chiefs over 41.5 points at a 68.3% probability,Let's get into the individual games to try to think through the specifics of these markets :

• San Francisco @ Philadelphia - We have that game total over 38.5 points leading the way at a 74.1% probability (which you, as a savvy Probly email reader, know means there's almost a 26% chance this game ends up very defensively minded like the Cowboys-Niners game). Then we have Eagles +3.5 at a 69.1% probability, Eagles +3 (1st half) at a 68.6% probability, Niners +7.5 at a 68% probability, and under 52.5 points at a 66.5% probability. These markets all would indicate the expected favoring of Philly, who is a -2.5 in the primary markets. You can also see the potential for an Eagles letdown loss via field goal with that +3.5 line. The most unique way to attack this for daily fantasy this weekend would be to play the near-34% chance of over 52.5 points that would greatly upset people heavily favoring the scoring of the AFC title game. There is a clear market lean to the Eagles (so this is what you should believe as the most likely outcome!) but I'll hot take it: I think the Niners steal this one by a field goal, as evidenced in that +3.5 market, in the face of a mild Jalen Hurts meltdown.

• Cincinnati @ Kansas City - The aforementioned Chiefs +7.5 leads the way with a 75.6% probability followed by the over 41.5 points at a 68.3% probability. Then we get the game going under 54.5 points also at a 68.3% probability (which is noteworthy as a very high bar alternate spread that indicates a near-32% chance of going over that mark to be a total shootout). You then get Chiefs +3 (1st half) at a 64.7% probability and Chiefs +3 for the game at a 63% probability. If I were to take anything away, it's the prominence of these "Chiefs ultimately fail as a favorite" lines dominating the top of the board. The lines swung throughout the week after opening Bengals +1 to Bengals -1.5 out of fear of the Mahomes injury back to Bengals +1.5 with confidence in Mahomes after he got through practice. But one bad hit, one intent to injure, and we are back into a bad spot. For DFS, I think you'd play the Chiefs since they'll be shockingly low owned. For betting, you should favor the Bengals being able to steal this one at the end. I'd take Bengals to win.

You will not be surprised if you are a regular reader of these emails to learn that the winner for most probable lies abroad with a Young Angels Kosice win at a 96.2% probability. Which, while an INCREDIBLE name for a team, is not the most likely to be available on your local sportsbook app as a matchup in the Slovakian women's basketball league.So instead we got to the NBA where a matchup of historic NBA rivals seems like it could be a boat race. The Celtics play the Lakers tonight but a Celtics win is the most probable event in the NBA with a 74.9% probability. A Jazz win is at #2 with a 71.9% probability followed by the Celtics moneyline (1st half) at a 68.8% probability and a Jazz moneyline (1st half) at a 66.8% probability. Closing us out is a Suns win over the Spurs at a 65.2% probability. How far these two historic western powers, the Lakers and Spurs, have fallen.In college hoops, you get an Oral Roberts win at a 92.3% probability, a Wright State win at a 90.8% probability, a Cal-Irvine win at a 90.4% probability, a Hawaii win tomorrow is at a 90.2% probability, and a Northwestern State win is at an 89.7% probability. Congrats to the alums of that eclectic mix of schools.Unfortunately American sportsbooks don't do the Royal Rumble, which is tonight and I will ABSOLUTELY be watching. But if you want to exploit some fringe betting, Legacy Fighting Alliance has an MMA card tonight and there are some winners there. A Marco Tulio Silva win is at an 80.2% probability, a Milson Castro win is at a 77.2% probability, a Jose Delano win is at a 73.7% probability, a Julia Polastri win at a 71.5% probability, and a Marciano Ferreira win at a 53.7% probability. To quote Sesame Street (as I always aspire to), one of these things is not like the other.

Another one in the books and, as always, I greatly appreciate you reading to this part of the email. We've got a busy few weeks before we turn this product live (and I'll be damned if it's anything less than the best and something I'd use daily) so strap in. As you, the person reading this, are one of the earliest to our Probly community, I genuinely hope to reward that faith with some really cool things.Have a great weekend and I'll see you guys next week for...an early Super Bowl look? I don't know man, there'll be something. Maybe a link to something cool? Fingers crossed.