🏈 Can We Find Good Games In An Ugly Week 9?

It’s that time for another jaunt through the world of betting through the lens of Probly.com! November has come upon us quickly with us now at the halfway point of the NFL regular season but the good news is this is a great time to place bets across a whooole bunch of sports even with baseball off the menu. NFL, NCAA football, NBA, NCAA basketball, soccer, MMA, hockey, tennis…there’s a whole lot you can find good bets for right now.

But you guys know the deal, we’ve got no time to waste here with me pointing out our multitudes of sports with great bet data! Let’s get started with your Probly Email for November 3rd, 2023! - @ChrisSpags

• 🔓 Probly Product Updates: The Spinning Wheel of Progress

• 🔮 Predicting the future with the Most Probable events of NFL Week 9

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NFL Week 9 is here and it is one of the ugliest according to over/unders in recent memory (nowhere near as beautiful as that grill above on Alvin Kamara, truly one of the nicest diamond mouths we’ve ever featured here).

So it seems appropriate that a mostly mid team in New Orleans leads the Most Likely campaign this week. A Saints win checks in at a 77% probability against undrafted Bears QB Tyson Bagent. It’s odd to see the Saints up here with them being a lot more relevant to wins in fantasy than real life football but that’s so Week 9.

Let’s go game by game with EVERY TEAM in action and mix in some +EV bets via our PROBLY Score where applicable. Here’s your NFL Week 9 Most Probable:

• Miami (+1) at Kansas City (50.5 O/U) — Top five most probable: Raheem Mostert over 1.5 receptions at a 63% probability, Over 22 (1st half) at a 60% probability, Patrick Mahomes under 2.5 passing TDs at a 60% probability, Under 53.5 at a 60% probability (and a 0.7 PROBLY Score at -145 odds), and Tua Tagovailoa over 0.5 INTs at a 57% probability.
  
  What this means: Frankfurt, Germany gets one of the most intriguing games of the week and the season as a tough KC defense faces the Dolphins’ high-flying offense. And it seems safe to expect solid production here, particularly when you see that high bar over/under of Under 53.5. It seems like the expectation is some struggle — as evidenced by the Tua INT prop — but ultimately for the teams to find their footing and move the ball on offense. A Dolphins +2.5 bet at a 56% probability and a 2.2 PROBLY Score at -120 odds looks like a solid reflection of a close game that should go down to the wire.

• Minnesota (+4) at Atlanta (37 O/U) — Top five most probable: Brandon Powell under 0.5 TDs at an 82% probability, Alexander Mattison over 1.5 receptions at a 60% probability, Under 20.5 (1st half) at a 59% probability, KJ Osborn over 2.5 receptions at a 58% probability, and Jaren Hall over 0.5 INTs at a 58% probability.
  
  What this means: With Kirk Cousins out for the year with an Achilles tear, 5th round rookie Jaren Hall is expected to make the start with new acquisition Josh Dobbs being familiarized with the offense. Hall comes with little pedigree in a low-total game against an Atlanta defense that got destroyed for the first time last week in fluky fashion versus Will Levis and the Titans. This feels like an ugly one but maybe the overs on receptions for Vikings players means Jaren Hall can at least rack up some PPR points.

• Washington (+3) at New England (41 O/U) — Top five most probable: Sam Howell under 0.5 TDs (rec/rush) at an 88% probability, Mac Jones under 1.5 passing TDs at a 67% probability, Rhamondre Stevenson under 3.5 receptions at a 60% probability, Patriots moneyline (1st half) at a 59% probability, and Sam Howell under 1.5 passing TDs at a 57% probability.
  
  What this means: The Commanders D has given up monster games this year and only got worse with their trade deadline moves. Despite that, it does not look favorable for the Patriots offense and Mac Jones in particular with what these markets spell out. With a greatly injured and depleted WR corps and Mac himself not too great this year, it does seem like swimming up hill to expect an outlier day from the Pats O.

• Tampa Bay (+2.5) at Houston (40 O/U) — Top five most probable: CJ Stroud under 0.5 INTs at a 66% probability, Bucs +2.5 (1st half) at a 59% probability (and a 5.5 PROBLY Score at -125 odds), Texans win at a 57% probability (and a 1.3 PROBLY Score at -130 odds), Under 42.5 at a 57% probability, and Rachaad White over 3.5 receptions at a 57% probability.
  
  What this means: Technically, the Under 42.5 line is a “high bar” over/under…it’s just higher than the market’s 40 point over/under. That is a positive signifier for offenses that we are unlikely to see in many of these games, even if we normally find that more appealing if a line is at like 47 and it has alternate totals of over 50. Either way, it does seem like it’s reasonable to expect a competitive game and perhaps one where the Texans’ pass success drives them to a win.

• Chicago (+9) at New Orleans (41 O/U) — Top five most probable: Saints win at a 77% probability, Saints moneyline (1st half) at a 69% probability, DJ Moore under 5.5 receptions at a 59% probability, Under 43.5 at a 58% probability, Over 39 at a 57% probability.
  
  What this means: The two alternate totals give you reasonable expectation of scoring over 39 and a shot at scoring more than the market line of 41 with the Under 43.5. The Bears’ defense is pretty tough against the run but much softer through the air so I don’t expect outlier rushing production from a likely highly owned Alvin Kamara in DFS this weekend. His ability to add a lot of touches in the pass game is where he’s more likely to pay off. Maybe finally a week to stack up Derek Carr, who has a 50% probability of throwing for over 247.5 yards.

• LA Rams (+3) at Green Bay (38 O/U) — Top five most probable: Romeo Doubs under 0.5 TDs at a 75% probability, Puka Nacua under 0.5 TDs at a 67% probability, Under 21.5 (1st half) at a 64% probability, Jordan Love under 1.5 passing TDs at a 63% probability, Jordan Love over 0.5 INTs at a 62% probability.
  
  What this means: The most interesting thing is that at #6 most probable in this game is a Packers win at a 61% probability (and a 1.2 PROBLY Score at -155 odds). So despite the most probable markets actively saying that Jordan Love is likely to have a bad game, it seems like it’s reasonable to expect worse on the Rams’ side. With a banged up Matthew Stafford, a less effective run game, and a weather shift to a wintry Green Bay, this could be a game that sees the Packers run game or D drive the team’s success en route to a home win.

• Seattle (+6) at Baltimore (44.5 O/U) — Top five most probable: Will Dissly under 0.5 TDs at a 90% probability, Zach Charbonnet under 0.5 TDs at an 80% probability, Lamar Jackson under 1.5 passing TDs at a 62% probability, Justin Tucker under 7.5 kicking points at a 55% probability, and Gus Edwards under 50.5 rushing yards at a 54% probability (and a 1.7 PROBLY Score at -115 odds).
  
  What this means: I guess Pete Carroll’s flowery talk about Charbonnet isn’t expected to shift Kenneth Walker’s red zone role (boo). Besides that, it seems like more of a defensively minded series of most probable events than the potential for scoring that might come with a high-bar alternate total. This game seems like one people might target to find a lot of scoring but that may be a mistake based upon these markets — even though Lamar can get there in a market-aligned way by just throwing for 1 TD but running for a whole lot more production.

• Arizona (+7.5) at Cleveland (37.5 O/U) — Top five most probable: Browns win at a 75% probability, Browns moneyline (1st half) at a 71% probability, Browns moneyline (1st quarter) at a 68% probability, Under 21 (1st half) at a 61% probability, and Under 20.5 (1st half) at a 57% probability.
  
  What this means: The Browns should dominate with Clayton Tune expected to step in after Josh Dobbs was traded and Kyler Murray remains “not ready” to go. I’m a little surprised to not see a Clayton Tune over on interceptions amongst these bets — something you’ll need if you were to play a pricy Browns defense on DFS sites — but it all seems like Browns dominance against an outgunned, low pedigree rookie.

• Indianapolis (-2.5) at Carolina (43.5 O/U) — Top five most probable: Bryce Young under 1.5 passing TDs at a 62% probability, Colts win at a 59% probability (and a 3.5 PROBLY Score at -132 odds), Over 42 at a 58% probability, Over 42.5 at a 55% probability, Alec Pierce under 25.5 receiving yards at a 55% probability.
  
  What this means: Not exactly a dominant lean for the Colts but it does seem like we can safely expect to get close to the market’s 43.5 over/under, if not slightly below it. Jonathan Taylor over 66.5 rushing yards stands out at a 55% probability (and 3.3 PROBLY Score at -115 odds) since this is a very strong rushing matchup against Carolina. This seems like one that should be competitive but with a Colts win that features Jonathan Taylor and does not feature Alec Pierce (per usual).

• Dallas (+3) at Philadelphia (46.5 O/U) — Top five most probable: Rico Dowdle under 0.5 TDs at an 81% probability, Under 49 at a 60% probability, Under 48.5 at a 59% probability, Eagles moneyline (1st half) at a 58% probability, and AJ Brown under 6.5 at a 58% probability.
  
  What this means: It seems like there’s good reason to expect a high scoring gave given those multiple high-bar over/unders that serve as a hedge against the market line being too low. It’s interesting to see that combined with the AJ Brown under on receptions given how his crushing has lately driven the Eagles’ success lately. Even though Brown can smash in under 6 catches, I wonder if this is a week to try a Jalen Hurts-Devonta Smith-Dallas Goedert stack approach in DFS to capture a unique spin on a game that easily could be the highest scoring of the week.

• NY Giants (+1) at Las Vegas (37.5 O/U) — Top five most probable: Aidan O’Connell under 1.5 passing TDs at a 66% probability, Darius Slayton over 2.5 receptions at a 58% probability, Michael Mayer over 2.5 receptions at a 57% probability, Raiders moneyline (1st quarter) at a 56% probability, and Giants +2.5 at a 55% probability (and a 3.5 PROBLY Score at -115 odds).
  
  What this means: It seems reasonable to expect a competitive game but perhaps one where the Raiders jump on them early only to see the Giants slowly climb back in. Daniel Jones is currently expected to return from his neck injury so this could be a game where the ball moves but mostly stalls out on the opponent’s side of the field to keep that over/under — and the game’s outcome — safely in range.

• Buffalo (+1) at Cincinnati (50.5 O/U) — Top five most probable: Trayveon Williams under 0.5 TDs at an 88% probability, Tee Higgins under 4.5 receptions at a 58% probability, Under 52.5 at a 58% probability, Bengals +2.5 at a 56% probability, Under 24.5 (1st half) at a 54% probability.
  
  What this means: Perhaps a slow start in this rematch of the game that sunk a million best ball finalists in January — myself included. Once again, the high-bar alternate total rears its potentially beautiful head, which seems reasonable if the Bills continue to play as aggressively in the pass game as they did last week sans Dalton Kincaid. A down Tee Higgins day could also mean good things for Ja’Marr Chase. Definitely some interesting things to note for a big Sunday Night Football DraftKings Showdown slate.

• LA Chargers (-3.5) at NY Jets (40 O/U) — Top five most probable: Zach Wilson under 1.5 passing TDs at a 67% probability, Austin Ekeler under 4.5 receptions at a 59% probability, Garrett Wilson over 4.5 receptions at a 59% probability, Over 38.5 at a 59% probability, and Over 37.5 at a 58% probability.
  
  What this means: This does not seem like a game where we’d expect a stout Jets D to acquiesce to a shootout. Still, it’s a good sign for the Jets’ passing O that a Garrett Wilson over and bet suggesting Zach Wilson will throw for at least one TD are on the most probable list. This seems like a spot where the Jets could pull off the upset at home with the scoring favoring more of a Jets environment than a Chargers one.

Apologies to the fans of other sports but that NFL writeup likely takes up MORE than enough space for this email. The good news? If you want your favorite sports’ best bets, you can now go grab them for yourself whenever you please at Probly.com! Here’s the best way to use it:

1️⃣ Scroll through all of our available markets
2️⃣ Click the Probability number (or swipe right) to see what the markets are saying is the “true probability” of a bet to win as well as what the current best available odds are
3️⃣ If you can find odds aligned with the best odds out there and it has a positive PROBLY Score (especially over a 2.0), take the bet! Taking +EV bets will win you more money than it loses you! If not, you can still take the bet but be careful because negative PROBLY Score bets over time can fully deplete your bankroll.

There we go guys, another one in the books. I’ve got to go watch a Halloween parade of our 19-month-old Luka (and the other kids at his day care, he’s not that big of a deal yet) and I bet you all the other parents will have no clue about Week 9 probability data. Their loss.

Take a peak around Probly.com and let me know if you have any feedback by replying directly to this email We’re gonna need all the support we can muster when subscriptions go live so, as always, feel free to tell a friend or 10,000 about Probly and I’ll see you guys next week! Good luck!