🦬 Buffalo WILL Win..But By How Much?

Well hello friends and welcome to another edition of the Probly email! We had our highest open rate yet on the last email and a ton of new signups this week so I hope you guys are enjoying what we put out here as we continue the grind behind the scenes to flesh out the Probly product we want you all to experience.This week, that meant moving forward on a proposal from our first external design firm to ensure the user experience is exactly what you'll expect out of our Probly app (and, candidly, what we hope will spark joy for potential investors as well). Everything we do here is in service of making sure I repay your faith in joining this waitlist and caring enough to keep up with what our team builds. If you're new here or have read every email so far, that is my personal promise to each and every one of you.With that said, it's time to take a look at NFL Week 5. This is your Probly email for October 7th, 2022. - @ChrisSpags

• Game-by-game preview of the most and least probable bets in all of NFL Week 5's games

• Other interesting events of note this weekend

You've likely seen the headline at some point this week about the Steelers being the first +14 underdog since the NFL-AFL merger. And the top international markets that we comb for Probly tell a similar tale with the Bills winning outright versus Pittsburgh as Week 5's most probable event at an 86.9% probability. As we saw last week with New England at Green Bay, sometimes these things can become more of a sweat than you'd possibly want. But these games do become the most likely event from the people who win the most and spend the most money for a reason. In your elimination pools, lock in a Bills win. Covering a 14-point spread? Perhaps you can prepare for the unexpected there.

Here's what we have for the rest of Week 5's games:

• NY Giants @ Green Bay - After a fun London game last week, we are back to serving our British friends utter slop. A Packers win is the most probable event at a 76% probability. Their 1st half moneyline is similarly high at 72.3% and, yes, it's similar for the first quarter moneyline at a 66.9% probability. There is not a single pro-Giants bet among the most probable outcomes so the only way to wager money on any success for them is if you're a sicko playing the early morning DraftKings Showdown.

• LA Chargers @ Cleveland - All the highest probability events in the game reflect the Browns keeping it close with Browns +4 (1st half) a 64.9% probability, Browns +5 (game) a 63.5% probability, and similar alternate spreads of Browns +4.5 and Browns +4 for the game at a 62.7% and 61.8% probability respectively. This could make it an interesting game to target for fantasy with the Chargers among the league's leaders in pass rate over expectation overall and in the red zone.

• Atlanta @ Tampa Bay - Tampa Bay winning outright is another of the week's most likely events at a 79.1% probability. They are expected to be in control throughout with a 72.4% probability to lead at halftime and a 69.4% probability to lead after the 1st quarter. The Bucs would easily be the other team to consider in an elimination pool alongside the Bills, even if they'll likely be too obvious a favorite to love in DFS. No tablet smashing for Tom this week:

• Pittsburgh @ Buffalo - It's a clean sweep for pro-Bills bets as well with that 86.9% probability to win, 78.8% probability to lead in the 1st half, and 75.7% likelihood to lead after the 1st quarter. There's some chance rookie Kenny Pickett can keep the Steelers in the game, at least relative to a 14-point spread. But to win? It doesn't look good.

• Chicago @ Minnesota - A Vikings win is the game's most likely outcome at a 75.3% probability. Their 1st half moneyline and 1st quarter moneyline are also highly likely at 69.5% and 67.6% respectively. The game scoring over 36.5 points is another of the most likely outcomes at a 71.9% probability alongside the 66.1% chance the game goes under 49.5 points. There's a possibility the game produces outlier scoring with those markets in mind but it's equally as likely the game ends up wildly low scoring. Either way, it doesn't seem likely the Bears actually pull out a win.

• Miami @ NY Jets - Dolphins +3.5 for the game is the most likely outcome at a 71.7% probability. But it's interesting to note there is a 32.9% chance the game goes over 51.5 points. It's far more likely the game goes under 51.5 at a 67.1% probability but with a game that markets think will be close as well as two teams who defend the pass exceedingly poorly — according to Football Outsiders, a 26% DVOA pass game boost from the Jets D and a 34% DVOA pass game boost from the Dolphins D — this is an interesting game to stack up on DraftKings and FanDuel.

• Seattle @ New Orleans - The most probable bet of the game is over 35.5 points, a 75.8% probability. Second most probable is Saints +3.5, a 74.6% probability. Things should be competitive but anyone expecting another 1,000 combined yard shootout like Seattle had last week at Detroit will likely be disappointed. The Seahawks may be lucky to avoid getting boat raced with just a 69.1% probability for Seattle +10.5.

• Detroit @ New England - New England +3.5 is the game's most likely outcome at a 70.7% probability. Not far behind is the game scoring under 52.5 points, a 69.3% probability. That's a fairly high total to be established as the bar; with New England +1.5 (1st half) also among the game's most probable events at 63.4%, it feels like this game could be more high scoring and fun than people would think at first blush. Look how much fun we'll have:

• Houston @ Jacksonville - A Jacksonville win is one of the most probable bets of the week at a 74.1% probability and this is another one where the alternate markets support Jags dominance with a 68.5% probability they lead at half and a 66.7% likelihood they'll lead after the 1st quarter. A nice get-well spot for Jacksonville and one where perhaps you should run screaming from the public chasing Dameon Pierce's upside as the Texans' lead back.

• Tennessee @ Washington - This game going over 35.5 points is the most probable outcome at a 71% probability. Commanders +7.5 isn't far behind at a 70.3% likelihood. There's some chance Tennessee runs away with this one given that means there's just shy of a 30% chance they beat Washington by more than 7.5 points but it may be unwise to expect a shootout. Derrick Henry likely should get his, though.

• San Francisco @ Carolina - Niners +3.5 is the game's most likely event at a 79.3% probability. The game scoring under 46.5 points isn't far behind it at a not-so-nice 69% probability. Everything screams an ugly game, including the fact that the Niners' touchdown-per-drive rate is 24th in the league and the Panthers' is 31st.

• Philadelphia @ Arizona - The Eagles should be in position to win this one with Cardinals +14.5 and Eagles +3.5 as the game's two most likely outcomes at a 76.8% and 76.1% probability respectively. The game scoring under 56.5 points is not far behind at a 71.4% probability. The Eagles should win comfortably but it wouldn't be a surprise for the Cardinals to put up a fight down the stretch in a game where both QBs can rack up points in the air and on the ground.

• Dallas @ LA Rams - Rams +3.5 leads the way in this game with a 76% probability. The game scoring under 50.5 points is #2 at at 70.1% probability. The Cowboys should hang within striking distance with Cowboys +10.5 at a 67.6% probability. But it seems likely the Rams avoid catastrophe in this one; if they blow it, it'll likely be a heartbreaking field goal rather than outright failure.

• Cincinnati @ Baltimore - Ravens +3.5 closes out a Sunday full of +3.5 bets leading the way, a game-high 72.4% probability. The game scoring under 54.5 points isn't far behind at a 68.4% probability. This looks like a game either team can win; for the big Sunday Night Football DraftKings Showdown, it may be wise to target the lower ownership on a Bengals upset that ends up similarly defensively minded to Bills-Ravens last week.

• Las Vegas @ Kansas City - A Chiefs win is the most probable event at a 73.6% probability. Vegas +14.5 isn't far behind with a 70.6% probability for this Monday Night Football AFC West battle. But there should be some scoring with the #5 most probable event that the game goes over 45.5, a 65.8% probability. It could be a fun game but one where the Chiefs stomp out a Raiders team who has thus far settled for field goals at the league's highest rate.

Georgia made everyone sweat it out last week with a narrow win vs Mizzou but, once again, a Georgia win is the most probable event in all of sports this weekend at a 95.3% probability.

A Cincinnati win at home vs South Florida at a 94.7% probability, Ohio State winning at Michigan State has a 93.7% probability, and Liberty and Bama come in with 92.8% and 91.8% probabilities to win to round out the top 5 most probable events in college football.

Heard of Cage Warriors? Their fight league has the most probable event in MMA with Dylan Hazan a 92.2% likelihood to win against Jefferson De Filippis with a 71.3% chance to finish under 1.5 rounds. In UFC, Pete Rodriguez beating former CM Punk-destroyer Mike Jackson has the highest probability at 84.1%. Victor Henry is #2 at a 74.1% win probability versus Raphael Assuncao while Petr Yan looks likely to dispatch Sugar Sean O'Malley at a 72.3% probability.

The least probable events are all games going on right now in soccer so...yeah. Classic soccer for ya.

There you have it gang, another email in the books. I'm trying out different timings and frequency for the email so, if you have any major feedback, don't hestitate to let me know!

Otherwise, keep your eye peeled for more Probly updates and the most probable events around the world to come right in your inbox. Thanks for reading, tell a friend or several thousand, and I'll see you guys soon! - Spags