🏈 What Do Betting Markets Think Will Happen In NFL Week 7?

Welcome to another journey through the world of Probly.com! This week is a special email because it is, in fact, my birthday today. A day I share with luminaries such as Snoop Dogg, former WWE star Scott Hall aka Razor Ramon, and Mickey Mantle is a day I’ll also share with YOU, dear reader, our finest probability data and product updates.

But of course, I’m rapidly aging before your eyes on the death march that is my last year before 40 so we’ve got no time to waste! Let’s get started with your Probly Email for October 20th, 2023! - @ChrisSpags

• 🔓 Probly Product Updates: Clicking On (Most?) Cylinders

• 🔮 Predicting the future with the Most Probable events of NFL Week 7

This week was a productive one in the world of Probly, including some updates that are germane to you:

-We pushed an update that (hopefully) has squashed a bug we had where after island games for NFL or college football, the sport would temporarily disappear while our databases cleared those events out. There should be no delays on that now with it automatically turning over to the next slates of games. This was a HUGE pain for me so I’m glad we got it corrected finally.
-We also have some additional improvements we anticipate pushing before next weeks email, including fixing the images on a League filter as well as adding a “Last Updated” timestamp to the modals that come up when you click a probability. This should provide further insight into how “hot off the presses” the bet is.

Now that we’ve seemingly cleared that first issue as a blocker, we’re hoping we’ll be able to tighten up our revenue products (in particular, the Most Profitable bet sorting and filtering Live events) that are a key part of what we want to provide you guys as well as what I need to create a functional live-stream/short-form/graphic content flow. I am pushing to get all this to align with shortly after the NBA season starts.

It was a long week with everything else as my life becomes a game of meetings and follow-ups to try to raise capital for Probly to ensure we continue to build this out the right way. I’m fortunate to have had more good meetings than bad ones with hopefully some more positives to come, including some helpful items with our partners at Amazon Web Services to aid us in navigating the costs that can rack up with a data-intensive product like ours.

The biggest pain point for me is patience. You sometimes wait a week or two for a meeting and, if that meeting goes well, it leads to additional followups or intros that can be helpful that also take another week or two to materialize. And that’s the good side of things where you vibe with someone, they get what we’re trying to do, and want to help. We have to operate with a sense of urgency, particularly in the hopes of being able to get things where they need to be before end of year, but we also have to be mindful of our clock not being someone else’s clock.

Then again, the alternative to patience is one well-known VC who replied to my form submission to his fund within literally one minute (i.e. not exactly the amount of time it takes to really review and consider it) with a pass. I never expect a reply from anyone since obviously you’ve got to earn that so I guess it’s a positive to hear back at all. But to get a reply so fast with a no really felt like one of those “Well fuck me huh?” kind of things.

That’s sometimes the hardest part: To believe so much in your product, have the domain expertise and some really great numbers thanks to you guys who use Probly, and still have to really convince people why it matters, why you matter, and why they should view your labor the same way you do. I had a meeting with someone this week where they were like “I absolutely believe this can be a $100 million business but I’m not sold it can be a billion dollar one” and have that be the reason someone wouldn’t move the ball forward. It is a lot to internalize and, as someone always dead set on continuing to iterate and improve, a challenge to continue to adapt our pitch and process to actualize what we want to achieve.

“If it were easy, everyone would do it" remains the mantra that has been beaten into my head more than enough. We’ll get there. For now though, the grind remains a grind.

If you guys encounter any issues not covered here or want to provide feedback, you can email me [email protected].

NFL Week 7 is here and, great news, I didn’t even have to update the thumbnail because it’s the Bills again!

This week’s Most Likely winner is indeed, a Bills win that comes in at a 78% probability. The Patriots grow worse by the week while the Bills barely escaped as the Most Likely last week versus the Giants. I wouldn’t advocate for a Pats upset with, again, how godawful that offense is. But maybe they can hang in more than the usual biggest underdog of the week.

Let’s go game by game and mix in some +EV bets via our PROBLY Score where applicable: Here’s your NFL Week 7 Most Probable:

• Buffalo (-8.5) at New England (40 O/U) — Top five most probable: Trent Sherfield under 0.5 touchdowns at an 88% probability, Hunter Henry under 0.5 touchdowns at an 81% probability, Bills win at a 78% probability, Kendrick Bourne under 4.5 receptions at a 59% probability, and Over 37.5 at a 59% probability.
  
  What this means: I’m surprised not to see the first quarter and first half money lines in the mix but that may speak to the in-game volatility of two mostly staunch defenses going head to head. I’d probably downgrade all three of Sherfield, Henry, and Bourne for fantasy (can’t imagine anyone would play Sherfield in anything besides a Showdown) but the main things seems to perhaps not expect the New England offense to push things at a meaningful level. The way they hang in this one is making it as ugly as possible.

• Detroit (+3) at Baltimore (43 O/U) — Top five most probable: Isaiah Likely under 0.5 touchdowns at a 90% probability, Keaton Mitchell under 0.5 touchdowns at an 89% probability, Under 23.5 (1st half) at a 61% probability, Ravens win at a 58% probability, Under 45 at a 57% probability.
  
  What this means: That Under 45 line is interesting because it does mean the game could skew a little closer to over on the market line of 43. That said, I do think both teams are a little more defensively minded than it seems so I don’t expect this to crest 50 points or anything. I also don’t hate playing the Detroit upset; the most +EV bet of the game is Lions +1.5 (1st half) at a 57% probability and an 8.9 PROBLY Score at -110 odds. I think they hang in this one with a live chance to win by the end.

• Washington (-2.5) at NY Giants (37.5 O/U) — Top five most probable: Sam Howell under 0.5 TDs (rush/rec) at an 84% probability, Jahan Dotson under 0.5 TDs at a 76% probability, Logan Thomas under 3.5 receptions at a 59% probability, Over 35.5 at a 59% probability, Over 36.5 at a 57% probability.
  
  What this means: Both defenses are awful but it doesn’t seem like one should expect this game to go nuts with scoring. Jahan Dotson is one of the biggest fantasy disappointments of the year and it seems unlikely for that to change given his likelihood of not scoring. I really think this could be a good Saquon spot but he only has a 50% shot of going over 63.5. This might be another case where bad offense trumps bad defense.

• Cleveland (-3) at Indianapolis (40.5 O/U) — Top five most probable: Donovan Peoples-Jones under 0.5 TDs at an 82% probability, David Njoku under 0.5 TDs at a 79% probability, Michael Pittman Jr. under 0.5 TDs at a 70% probability, Gardner Minshew over 0.5 passing TDs at a 66% probability, and Over 37 at a 59% probability.
  
  What this means: NFL scoring and fantasy production is down a good amount to start this year but for some reason it really feels crystallized in this one with alll these guys’ TD unders leading the probabilities and another low-total game. I guess you could infer that if these guys are so unlikely to score, maybe it means a higher chance for their teammates to punch one in. So guys like Amari Cooper or Josh Downs maybe gain in appeal because of how unlikely their teammate is to score a TD? It’s either that, or a field goal fest. Dealer’s choice.

• Las Vegas (-2.5) at Chicago (37 O/U) — Top five most probable: Robert Tonyan under 0.5 TDs at an 89% probability, Michael Mayer under 0.5 TDs at an 84% probability, Darnell Mooney under 0.5 TDs at an 81% probability, Cole Kmet under 0.5 TDs at a 77% probability, and DJ Moore under 0.5 TDs at a 71% probability.
  
  What this means: This is the first time I have ever seen only TD unders top our probabilities which doesn’t seem like a great thing when it comes to expect scoring (and for what it’s worth, a Raiders win is right behind these at a 60% probability. I guess this maybe gives some more faith in the key guys like Davante Adams — who might be the squeakiest wheel in the history of “squeaky wheel” narratives — to get something going at a market 68.5 receiving yards line. But once again, there’s not a lot screaming out to be loved.

• Atlanta (+2.5) at Tampa Bay (37.5 O/U) — Top five most probable: Chris Godwin under 0.5 TDs at a 73% probability, Desmond Ridder under 1.5 passing TDs at a 69% probability, Kyle Pitts over 2.5 receptions at a 62% probability, Over 35.5 at a 59% probability, and Over 34 at a 58% probability.
  
  What this means: Another likely ugly one with no noteworthy alternate totals that give you a ton of faith to expect scoring. This is one where I don’t see much to love in the advanced analytics from Sports Info Solutions either. I guess you can take some solace in a Mike Evans or a Drake London not in the negatives here for props but it really doesn’t seem like one to expect any outlier performances and a mostly yucky game.

• Pittsburgh (+3) at LA Rams (44 O/U) — Top five most probable: Jaylen Warren under 0.5 TDs at a 77% probability, Kenny Pickett under 1.5 passing TDs at a 64% probability, Rams win at a 61% probability, Tyler Higbee over 2.5 receptions at a 60% probability, and Over 19.5 (1st half) at a 60% probability.
  
  What this means: At least it’s not another barrage of “Here’s a bunch of dudes who won’t score.” After how the Texans — a similar pass-dominant, routes and aggressive throw windows team — aggressively carved up the Steelrs, I do think there’s something interesting to target on the Rams’ side. They’re expected to wins, we can see a positive line for Tyler Higbee, Cooper Kupp has a 90.5 receiving yards line, there’s things to like for them in these markets. I’ll also point out that Steelers +1 has a 51% probability and a 13.2 PROBLY Score at +120 odds so maybe the Steelers keep it tight, which could benefit scoring on both sides.

• Arizona (+7.5) at Seattle (44 O/U) — Top five most probable: Seahawks win at a 76% probability, Geno Smith under 0.5 INTs at a 65% probability, Kenneth Walker under 2.5 receptions at a 59% probability, Geno Smith over 1.5 passing TDs at a 57% probability, and Under 46.5 at a 56% probability.
  
  What this means: With Kenneth Walker expected to be the highest owned player of the week on DraftKings/et al, this data opens up an interesting possibility: What if Geno Smith throws all over them instead? With him having a 57% chance of a two-TD game, that is absolutely something you should play in tournaments this weekend either in lieu of or as an addition to Kenneth Walker lineups. With that Under 46.5 line popping up, there is an increased chance of scoring over the market total as well. This is a game worth targeting.

• Green Bay (-1) at Denver (45.5 O/U) — Top five most probable: Jerry Jeudy under 0.5 TDs at a 74% probability, Under 48 at a 58% probability, Jerry Jeudy over 3.5 receptions at a 57% probability, Over 43 at a 56% probability, Luke Musgrave under 3.5 receptions at a 55% probability.
  
  What this means: This definitely looks like a shootout with that Under 48 and Over 43 making an appearance. The Broncos are the worst defense in football and the Packers are a team that can get downfield really aggressively. I’m bummed to see that Musgrave line because he looks like a great play this week. But I really do believe this game might be the one that sails a thousand ships this weekend — 51% chance Christian Watson has a reception over 21.5 yards!

• LA Chargers (+5.5) at Kansas City (48 O/U) — Top five most probable: Chiefs win at a 68% probability, Chiefs moneyline (1st half) at a 65% probability, Skyy Moore under 2.5 receptions at a 56% probability, Justin Herbert under 0.5 interceptions at a 56% probability, Skyy Moore under 26.5 receiving yards at a 55% probability (and a 3.3 PROBLY Score at -115 odds).
  
  What this means: Besides Skyy Moore catching strays, it does seem like the markets expect a mostly clean game here — i.e. not a Justin Herbert meltdown — that ends in a Chiefs win. The Chiefs D has quietly been a juggernaut this year but we do know that the Chargers’ offense is capable to find production against nayone. I’d think this one remains competitive but with Patrick Mahomes finding a way to dice them up through the air (likely without the help of Skyy Moore, who is very likely to lose routes to Mecole Hardman soon).

• Miami (+2.5) at Philadelphia (51.5 O/U) — Top five most probable: Durham Smythe under 0.5 TDs at a 83% probability, Over 48.5 at a 59% probability, Under 3.5 total field goals at a 58% probability, Under 53.5 at a 57% probability, and Under 53 at a 56% probability (and a 2.4 PROBLY Score at -120 odds).
  
  What this means: Some positive signs here for both sides being able to find production on a really fun Sunday Night Football game. Maybe a sign to lean less on kickers if you play that Showdown slate but it does seem with those Over 48.5 and Under 53 lines that there is a pretty safe window to expect a high scoring game here.

• San Francisco (-7) at Minnesota (44 O/U) — Top five most probable: Brock Purdy under 0.5 TDs (rush/receiving) at an 89% probability, Brandon Powell under 0.5 TDs at a 79% probability, Jordan Addison under 0.5 TDs at a 75% probability, TJ Hockenson under 0.5 TDs at a 73% probability, and Niners win at a 73% probability.
  
  What this means: It really seems to pare down how the market perceives the Minnesota pass game here with KJ Osborn the only primary receiver not on this list of guys who won’t score a touchdown. On paper, you’d think this is a dominant Niners win but there is a decent possibility Christian McCaffrey is not able to go after an oblique injury last week. So perhaps we see more of the defense doing the legwork here with that representing a real potential mismatch. 

Apologies to the fans of other sports but that NFL writeup likely takes up MORE than enough space for this email. The good news? If you want your favorite sports’ best bets, you can now go grab them for yourself whenever you please at Probly.com! Here’s the best way to use it:

1️⃣ Scroll through all of our available markets
2️⃣ Click the Probability number (or swipe right) to see what the markets are saying is the “true probability” of a bet to win as well as what the current best available odds are
3️⃣ If you can find odds aligned with the best odds out there and it has a positive PROBLY Score, take the bet! Taking +EV bets will win you more money than it loses you! If not, you can still take the bet but be careful because negative PROBLY Score bets over time can fully deplete your bankroll.

There we go guys, another one in the books. We’ll keep pushing on everything here, as always, and lord knows if I’m working on my birthday that means I’m fully locked in on doing everything we can to make sure Probly deserves your attention.

Make sure to spend some time on Probly.com this weekend and I’ll be sure to give you guys more updates next week. Feel free to tell a friend or 10,000 about Probly as a birthday gift for your ol’ pal Spags and I’ll see you guys next week!