🏹Would You Believe The Chiefs Are Most Likely To Win In Week 15?

Man I thought I would be ahead of the 8-ball if I started writing this before 9AM and NOPE we've got World Cup soccer already going off. The beauty of sports, the anguish of writing about sports betting probabilities in a weekly email. Sorry to the Morocco fans who wanted that sweet intel.There are American football games as well coming up in the next few hours too . So let's get right into it all in your Probly email for December 17th, 2022! - @ChrisSpags

• 🏈 Game-by-game preview of the most and least probable bets in NFL Week 15's games

• 👑 The most probable bets from the World Cup, the NBA, and whatever else seems interesting around the world!

I always put QBs in the photos but let's shout out our guy Travis Kelce, one of the only good tight ends to play football this year. And he, along with lesser star Patrick Mahomes, are in the money spot for the week as they face the Houston Texans on the road as a 14-point favorite. It's not quite as bad for Houston as it was last week versus Dallas according to the top markets around the globe but it's pronounced: A Chiefs win is the most probable event of the week at an 86.5% probability.The rest of the top five includes a Chiefs moneyline (1st half) at a 78% probability, an Eagles win at Chicago at a 76.7% probability, a Bills win in a LOT OF SNOW over Miami at a 74.4% probability, and a Packers win over the Rams on Monday Night Football at a 73.5% probability. No more bye weeks with every team in action weekly the rest of the way so let me exercise some rare word economy and get right to everything else in NFL Week 15:

• Minnesota @ Indianapolis - Based on how this game will be treated on DraftKings' Saturday slate, you'd think the markets would have this as a Vikings bloodbath. But it's similar to last week's Bengals-Browns game where there's a dominance narrative that expects the Vikings to blow the game over the course of it. Vikings +0.5 (1st quarter) is the most probable event at a 66.9% probability followed by Vikings +0.5 (1st half) at a 64.8% probability and then the Vikings win at a 63.9% probability. With the Vikings' weak defense, I think they allow Matt Ryan and the boys to hang around based on this info (and this only enhances my love for Michael Pittman this week).

• Baltimore @ Cleveland - Baltimore gets no love with Lamar Jackson still out with this game projecting as a slog. The most probable event is the game scoring under 46.5 points at a 71.3% probability. Browns +3.5 is second at a 69.1% probability, which means that the markets are accounting for some likelihood to blow the game as a three-point favorite overall. I believe the Ravens win in a run-heavy slog but there's nothing in these top markets that indicate any chance of a shootout (besides that low inverse 28.7% probability the game scores 47 points or more).

• Baltimore @ Pittsburgh - With no Lamar Jackson, the expectation seems to be a competitive game with Pittsburgh as a somewhat baffling favorite. Ravens +7.5 is the most probable outcome at a 71.2% probability followed by the game going over 30.5 points at a 68.3% probability. It's followed closely by the 67% probability that the game scores under 43.5 points. With how stellar Ravens backup Tyler Huntley was last year, I am intrigued by the idea of targeting his upside in an offense that's underperformed A LOT with Lamar this year. But everything these top markets has indicates an ugly, vintage AFC North slog.

• Miami @ Buffalo - That Bills win at a 73.8% probability leads the way followed by a traditional Bills dominance narrative with Bills moneyline (1st half) at a 66.9% probability and Bills moneyline (1st quarter) at a 64.2% probability. Miami has been going the wrong direction lately, which can happen with a high-volume passing offense and the volatility that comes with it. Snow games hurt the defense almost as much as the opponent (defenders fall down chasing routes that they can't predict and recover from as easily) so it does feel like you're paying a bit of a weather shift tax with the expectation Miami can't hang in the snow.

• Detroit @ NY Jets - Oh how the markets have moved with Zach Wilson starting over the injured Mike White. Jets +3.5 (1st half) leads the way at a 66.1% probability followed by Jets +3 (1st half) at a 63.4% probability. There's also a 62.2% probability the game scores under 10 points in the 1st quarter, something that was not in place when Mike White was expected to go. It's still a bad Lions defense that anyone with a pulse can take advantage of but it seems like a closely competitive game where Zach Wilson can luck into a win or Zack Wilson his way into a loss.

• Pittsburgh @ Carolina - The game going under 45.5 points leads the way at a 71.9% probability, which really sums up the vibes for an ugly and potentially low scoring Week 15. The 2nd most probable event is Steelers +7.5 at a 68% probability followed by Carolina +3.5 at a 67.7% probability. This all means to expect a low-scoring and competitive game where markets wouldn't be surprised by any result in a battle between Sam Darnold and Mason Rudolph/Mitch Trubisky. Sick league.

• Kansas City @ Houston - It's all Kansas City dominance narrative in this one with a Chiefs win at a 86.6% probability, Chiefs moneyline (1st half) at a 78% probability, and Chiefs moneyline (1st quarter) at a 71.5% probability. There's also Chiefs -7.5 at a 65.8% probability, which feels like top markets taking the worst case outcome at big juice. The Chiefs will win but covering a 14-point road spread is the usual 50/50 to expect from primary lines.

• Atlanta @ New Orleans - With rookie Desmond Ridder making his debut for Atlanta, it seems like the markets expect the Saints to eke out a win but not with high confidence. The most probable event is Saints +3.5 at a 74.4% probability followed by Saints +0.5 (1st quarter) at a 69.3% probability and Saints +0.5 (1st half) at a 65.1% probability. This reads to me that there is some chance of a worst-case scenario Falcons upset can happen by a field goal but the expectation is a competitive game and Saints win. I'd personally take a shot on a competitive upset with Ridder and Drake London finding some early success.

• Dallas @ Jacksonville - Jags +14.5 leads the board overall at a 77.3% probability with the game scoring over 39.5 points in second at a 73.8% probability. A Cowboys win is in third at a 66% probability, which feels low given that top alternate spread. I think the markets are gun shy around Jacksonville after really not thinking they could take advantage of Tennessee's soft pass defense last week but that won't be there as easily this week against a rollicking Dallas D.

• Philadelphia @ Chicago - It's all Philly dominance here with their win, 1st half moneyline, and 1st quarter moneyline leading the way at 76.5%, 70.6%, and 64.9% probabilities. Chicago can have Justin Fields run them into a game that's closer than it should be but I don't see how Philly blows a win, even if they can't cover the primary markets' 8.5 point spread.

• New England @ Las Vegas - Raiders +7.5 is the most probable event at a 74.% probability with the game scoring over 37.5 points behind it at a 69.4% probability. There's also an interesting alternate line in the top three with under 50.5 points at a 65.6% probability. There could be some scoring in this one — particularly if Jakobi Meyers and Rhamondre Stevenson can go — but the Patriots D should singlehandedly take care of business.

• Arizona @ Denver - No Kyler, no Russ, no hope for either team to make the playoffs. The assumption seems to be that Denver's defense does the heavy lifting here. Cardinals +7.5 is the most probable event atb a 72.2% probability followed by a 70.4% probability the game scores over 29.5 points. IN THE GAME. Both teams are running out the clock on their seasons so, even with some target concentration for Jerry Jeudy and Greg Dulcich with the rest of the Broncos' top targets out, it's hard to expect ceiling upside from anyone.

• Tennessee @ LA Chargers - The game scoring over 38.5 points is the most probable event at a 72.1% probability followed by Titans +7.5 at a 67.8% probability. There's nothing else interesting in the top markets which makes me feel like this is the inverse of the Jags situation referenced earlier; markets have overrated Tennessee all year but they've also gotten surprisingly positive results despite obvious weaknesses against the pass game (particularly the deep ball). I'd hope the Chargers can take advantage here with the team getting healthier but they've failed in similarly good spots.

• Cincinnati @ Tampa Bay - This is one that the TV networks will push heavily but holy cow does it feel like an ugly mismatch. The most probable event is the game scoring over 35.5 points at a 75% probability but you know from these emails that means it's a VERY low bar for alternate markets. Number 2 most probable? Bucs +10.5 at a 69.5% probability. Both defenses are solid but the key difference is Joe Burrow is one of the best at his position and Tom Brady plays like any 45-year-old divorcee who's overwhelmed by life. Bengals should roll.

• NY Giants @ Washington - A hideous Sunday Night Football game seems afoot with some potential for variance based on Commanders +3.5 as most probable at a 75.6% probability. Again — this is one of the most valuable lines to see on the top of the board because it tells you that the expectation is a Commanders win but with a buffer given for the potential of them underperforming and the Giants stealing a win. I still favor Washington but the under 46.5 points coming in second most probable at a 67.8% probability means an ugly game, which could favor New York. The Giants blitz at a league-high rate, which creates a lot of volatility (same as teams that pass a lot). I'm 100% confident of one thing: This will not be fun to watch.

• LA Rams @ Green Bay - We are apparently firmly in stinker season for primetime games and the markets expect a Green Bay boatrace. We have the Green Bay win at a 73.5% probability followed by Rams +14.5 at a 72.2% probability. There's also an alternate spread for the game going under 46.5 points at a 70.3% probability. With how bad Green Bay has been, particularly at defending the run, I don't hate playing into a Rams upset. But it feels like the bloom comes off the Baker Mayfield rose this week and Aaron Rodgers wins again in a game that likely gets him no closer to the playoffs. Bust.

I want to get this email out with time to read before the Saturday NFL games so I'm not even going to make a graphic for this international nonsense that I usually love up top. But your most likely for the week? A Galatasaray win, which seems to be Turkish hoops, at a 96.2% probability. Galatasahooray, they'll shout in the streets. The rest of the top 5: Kortrijk Spurs HSE with a 96.1% probability in whatever basketball league they're in, Uni Gyor at a 95.8% probability and two Illinois moneylines in college hoops with an Illinois win at a 95.6% probability and an Illinois moneyline (1st half) at a 95.4% probability. At least that one is something you can bet on.In the NBA, you get a Grizzlies win at a 74.5% probability, a Heat win at a 70.7% probability, Grizzlies moneyline (1st half) at a 68.6% probability (hilariously, I guessed they were playing OKC based on these lines and yep that's the game), Clippers win at a 68.2% probability and a Heat moneyline (1st half) at a 65.6% probability. The UFC card looks trash but it's led by an Amir Albazi win at a 77.7% probability, a Sergey Morozov win at a 74.3% probability, McKenna-Vlismas over 2.5 rounds at a 73.9% probability, a Jake Matthews win at a 73.5% probability, and Tsarukyan-Ismagulov over 2.5 rounds at a 69.8% probability. If you knew any of those names before reading them, you are officially my King or Queen of Combart Sports.As I mentioned up top, World Cup is going on right now but there's a 83.8% probability that there is in fact over one goal in France-Argentina tomorrow morning and that game also has an Argentina +1 Asian Handicap at an 82.7% probability. France +1 isn't far behind at an 81.3% probability. As an expert soccer handicapper, I say this means expect a low scoring game where anyone can win...what analysis!

Thanks to all of you as always who make it to this part of the email, you're the real MVPs. I hope this adds as much value for you as it does for me to write it up (the NFL stuff in particular I really think can help intelligently guide fantasy decisions — other than when none of the people wagering big money think the Jags can throw for 400 yards). Have a great weekend and I'll see you guys next week! Good luck!